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July 11, 2018
Financial Statements and Ratios, KFMA Research
important
as farm families transition from one generation
to the … 11.8% 8.7% 10.1% 8.7% 8.9%
2007 11.6% 12.4% 7.2% 13.1% 11.6 … 9.2% 6.8% 8.7% 6.8% 8.2%
2007 10.8% 9.8% 5.0% 10.2% 9.6 …
August 14, 2016
Breakout session presentations
management, and business transition planning. Greg holds a B.S … increasing
substantially since 2007 and representing more than … agricultural economic boom of 2007 to 2013. We also take a
look …
April 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
o years ago – up to their
highest level in 14 years (since MY 2001/02). For perspective, the 34‐year low in World wheat ending stocks of
128.7 mmt and at least a 57‐year low in percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 20.9% S/U both occurred in MY
2007/08, the last major World wheat “short crop” marketing year.
The World wheat market continues to monitor a) potential wheat production problems in major world wheat
production areas such northwestern Africa, the Middle East, south Asia/India, China, South America, and
Australia, and the central and southern plains of the United States (possible wheat disease problems from
seasonal rains), b) ongoing geopolitical conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that
could impact commodity markets, and c) spillover impacts into grain markets and other commodities from
volatile World economies, and financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over supply” situation
that exists in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on World
wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly before summer‐2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate – although it has been weakening recently – alos is a serious negative
factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and
causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made minor changes in its supply‐
demand and price projections for U.S. wheat in the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion
bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 775 million bushels (mb) of exports, 140 mb wheat feed use
(down 10 mb), 1.948 bb of total use (down 10 mb), 976 mb ending stocks (up 10 mb), and 50.09% ending‐
stocks‐to‐use (up from 49.34% in March to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10). A price range of
$4.90‐$5.00 /bu was forecast by the USDA with a midpoint of $4.95 /bu – the lowest U.S. wheat marketing
year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Based on March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings
Report forecasts and information from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA on February 25‐
26, 2016, a KSU‐adjusted USDA forecast of U.S. wheat supply‐demand is available for “next crop” 2016/17
marketing year beginning June 1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 49.559 million acres
(ma) – down 5.085 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 42.174 ma would be down 4.920 ma vs
Page | 2
2015. Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat
production is projected to be 1.935 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with “next crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of
3.036 bb (up from 2.924 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16). With projected “next crop” MY 2016/17 ending
stocks of 943 mb and percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 45.05% S/U, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to
be $4.20 /bu – down from $4.95 /bu in “current crop” MY 2015/16. It is assumed by KSU that these adjusted
USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is assumed to have a 40% probability of occurring.
KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand
and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming the same 2016 planted acreage as
USDA, but 437,000 less acres harvested than the adjusted USDA estimates based on historical percent
harvested‐to‐planted acres relationships. A) KSU‐Scenario A (Trend Yield) (30% probability) assumes for “next
crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.021 bb
total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.043 bb total use, 978 mb ending stocks, 47.87% S/U, & $4.05 /bu U.S. wheat
average price; B) KSU‐Scenario B (Foreign Crop Problems – Higher U.S. Exports) (15% prob.) assumes for
“next crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production,
3.021 bb total supplies, 1.050 bb exports, 2.243 bb total use, 778 mb ending stocks, 34.7% S/U, & $5.10 /bu
U.S. wheat average price; and C) KSU‐Scenario C (Widespread U.S. Crop Problems) (15% prob.) assumes for
“next crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac yield, 1.669 bb production,
2.770 bb total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.043 bb total use, 727 mb ending stocks, 35.6% S/U, & $5.00 /bu U.S.
wheat average price.
…
March 17, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… Total Supply
Page | 10
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: The USDA forecast U.S. wheat food use of approximately 974 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17,
following a consistent upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b)
associated regular increases in domestic demand for processed wheat products. This estimated projected
amount of 974 mb in food use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 967 mb for “current crop” MY 2015/16,
958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Seed Use: The USDA forecast seed use of approximately 69 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17, up from 66 mb
in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 79 mb in MY 2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY
2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 850 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 775 mb in “current
crop” MY 2015/16, but is down marginally from 854 mb in MY 2014/15. Total U.S. wheat exports of 775 mb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16 is the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72 prior to the
“Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Projections by KSU of “next crop” MY
2016/17 U.S. wheat exports are also 850 mb – equal to the USDA’s projection of 850 mb (Table 1).
The primary factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies – in
particular those of other major World wheat exporters, and b) prospects for fully adequate supplies of
competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That said, there are several factors that could
change the current “low export demand” situation for the United States, including 1) the uncertain impact on
World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts – such as those between Russian and
Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East, and 2) the potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in
other major World wheat production areas due to anticipated the “El Nino” or an “El Nino transition to a La
Nina” weather …
December 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
t factors such as a) international geopolitical conflicts, b) financial market disruptions, c) U.S. farmer
resistance to selling at low winter 2016 cash corn prices, and d) “El Nino” or “El Nino‐La Nina transition”‐
related weather patterns in spring‐summer 2016 with negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could each
still impact corn market prices through summer‐fall 2016. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower
input costs – supporting the profitability for U.S. and Foreign livestock feeding and bioenergy users and leading
to increased feedgrain usage. The high value of the U.S. dollar has been a limiting factor for U.S. corn exports.
USDA Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA projected 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.654 billion
bushels (bb), and for “new crop” MY 2015/16 that there would be total supplies of 15.415 bb, and total use of
13.630 bb (down 25 mb) – which includes ethanol use of 5.200 bb (up 25 mb over 1 month ago), non‐ethanol
FSI use of 1.380 bb, exports of 1.750 bb (down 25 mb from November and 75 mb from October projections)
and feed and residual use of 5.300 bb. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.785 bb (13.54% S/U) in MY 2015/16 – up
25 mb from last month, and up from 1.731 bb (12.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15. U.S. corn average cash
prices are forecast the range of $3.35‐$3.95 /bu. ($3.65 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15,
$4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record) in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “USDA S/D Estimates” Scenario (80% prob.): All supply‐demand assumptions equal
to the USDA’s, but with $3.60 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Smaller Crop” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S.
corn yield of 167.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.470 bb, total supplies of 15.232 bb, total use of
13.630 bb, ending stocks of 1.602 bb, 11.75% S/U, & $4.00 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Economic
Problems” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S. corn production and supplies equal to the USDA estimates, but lower
total use of 13.435 bb, ending stocks of 1.980 bb, 14.7% S/U, & $3.40 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA provided an
initial forecast of U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning
September 1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 90.5 million acres (ma) – up 2.119 ma
from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 82.7 ma would be 2.036 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of
168.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is projected to be 13.900 billion bushels (bb) – 2nd highest on record.
With forecast MY 2016/17 total use of 13.935 bb (record high), and ending stocks of 1.780 bb (12.77% S/U),
U.S. corn prices are projected to be $3.60 /bu – down marginally from $3.65 /bu in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,182.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,183.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.3 mmt in
MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks of 211.9 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up
from 208.2 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.9 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. December 2015 USDA WASDE Report
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
I‐B. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME MARCH 2016 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2016 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off MARCH corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” MARCH 2016 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “neutral” manner to the information
in the December 9th USDA reports, and in the days afterward has trended sideways‐to‐higher before declining
sharply on Wednesday, Ed. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session,
i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Wednesday, December 9th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2016
corn futures prices opened at $3.73 ½ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.70 ¼ ‐ $3.79 ¼ during the
session, before settling at $3.73 ¾ – up $0.00 ¼ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2016 Corn has
traded from a low of $3.62 ½ on December 17th high of $3.80 ¼ on December 11th to a before closing at $3.74
½ on Friday, December 18th.
Figure 1. MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 CME Weekly Corn Futures Price Charts
ne …
October 27, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
…
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is significant to the U.S. corn and other U.S.
grain markets, because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it
more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which
they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S.
dollars in U.S. grain markets). Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. grain exports, it is a
very important one – working against U.S. corn being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in
World grain trade.
I‐E. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA’s projections of 2015 U.S. corn planted acres from the March 31st Prospective Plantings report
were adjusted downward in the USDA June 30th Acreage report, and had been used without adjustment by
the USDA through the July 10th, August 12th, and September 11th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports,
but were adjusted downward in the October 9th USDA reports. The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn
planted acreage equaled 88,381,000 acres, down 516,000 acres from a month earlier. This projection of
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Page | 5
88.381 million acres (ma) of 2015 U.S. corn planted is down 2.216 ma (‐2.45%) from 90.597 ma in 2014, down
6.984 ma (‐7.3%) from 95.365 ma in 2013, down 8.910 ma (‐9.16%) from the record high of 97.291 ma in 2012,
and also down from 91.921 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn harvested acreage would be 80,664,000 acres – down 437,000
acres from a month earlier. This projection of 80.664 ma is down 2.472 ma (‐3.0%) from 83.136 ma in 2014,
down 6.787 ma (‐7.8%) from the record high of 87.451 ma in 2013, down 6.701 ma (‐7.7%) from 87.365 ma in
2012, and down from 83.981 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The USDA implicitly projected that the
proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage in 2015 is 91.3%, down from 91.8% in 2014, and from 91.7% in
2013, but up from 89.9% in drought‐stricken 2012.
The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. average corn yields to be 168.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – up 0.5 bu/ac from
the USDA’s September projection, but still less than the record high of 171.0 bu/ac in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure
5). Although this October 2015 USDA projection of 2015 U.S. corn yields of 168.0 bu/ac is down from the
record 171.0 bu/ac in 2014, it would still be the second highest U.S. corn yield to date, being up from 158.1
bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., 147.2 bu/ac in 2011, 152.8 bu/ac in 2010,
and still up from the previous historic record high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.
Based on this combination of USDA projections for 2015 planted acreage (88.381 ma), harvested acreage
(80.664 ma), and yield (168.0 ma – USDA), projected 2015 U.S. corn production would be 13.555 billion
bushels (bb) – down 30 million bushels (mb) from the USDA’s September projections, and down 131 mb from
August. This projection of 13.555 bb U.S. corn production in 2015 is the 3rd highest on record, being down
from the record high of 14.216 bb in 2014, and the 2nd highest amount of 13.829 bb in 2013. However, this
projection of 13.555 bb in 2015 would still be up from 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.314 bb in 2011, 12.425 bb in
2010, and 13.067 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are 15.316 bb – down 31
mb from September, and down 141 million bushels (mb) from the August WASDE report. This projection of
15.316 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 results from beginning stocks of 1.731 bb, projected 2015 production of
13.5585 bb, and projected imports of 30 mb (Table 1 and Figure 6). Since the beginning of the expansion in
U.S. ethanol production in 2006‐2007, total supplies of U.S. …
December 2, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
uch as a) international geopolitical conflicts, b) financial market disruptions, c) U.S.
farmer resistance to selling grain at low fall 2016 harvest prices, and d) “El Nino” or “El Nino‐La Nina
transition”‐ related weather patterns in spring 2016 with negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could
each still impact corn market price direction and volatility in the later part of “new crop” 2015/16 marketing
year. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs and improved profitability for U.S. and
Foreign livestock feeding and bioenergy users, leading to increased feedgrain usage. Over time these factors
are likely to cause a change in the prevailing “large crop – low price” market scenario in U.S. and World coarse
grain markets that currently exists.
USDA U.S. Corn Market Forecast: In the 11/10/2015 WASDE report, the USDA raised its forecast of 2015 U.S.
corn production and ending stocks estimates – leading to a moderate decrease in projected U.S. corn prices for
“new crop” MY 2015/16. Projected 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.654 billion bushels (bb) is up 99 million
bushels (mb) from October, but still down from the record high 14.216 bb in 2014. Total supplies of 15.415 bb
in MY 2015/16 are also up 99 mb from October, but down from the record of 15.479 bb in “old crop” MY
2014/15. Forecast MY 2015/16 total corn usage of 13.655 bb (down 100 mb) includes ethanol use of 5.175 bb
(up 34 mb vs year ago), non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.380 bb (up 21 mb vs year ago), exports of 1.800 bb (down 50
mb from Oct. and down 64 mb vs year ago) and feed and residual use of 5.300 bb (up 25 mb from Oct., but
down 15 mb vs year ago). Ending stocks are forecast at 1.760 bb (12.89% S/U) in MY 2015/16 – up 199 mb
from last month, and up from 1.731 bb (12.6% S/U) in MY 2014/15. “New crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. average cash
prices are forecast $0.15 lower from a month ago in the range of $3.35‐$3.95 /bu. ($3.65 midpoint) versus
$3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and the record high $6.89 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “USDA S/D Estimates” Scenario (80% prob.): All supply‐demand assumptions equal
to the USDA’s, but with $3.75 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Smaller Crop” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S.
corn yield of 167.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.470 bb, total supplies of 15.232 bb, total use of
13.655 bb, ending stocks of 1.577 bb, 11.6% S/U, & $4.00 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Economic
Problems” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S. corn production and supplies equal to the USDA estimates, but lower
total use of 13.460 bb, ending stocks of 1.955 bb, 14.5% S/U, & $3.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,183.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,183.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.3 mmt in
MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks of 211.9 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up
from 208.2 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.9 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Downward adjustments by the USDA in the November WASDE report in Chinese corn feeding for the last three
marketing years had a marked impact on World corn supply‐demand balances relative to a month earlier.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. November USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On November 10th in its Crop Production report the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
made its’ fourth monthly projection of 2015 U.S. corn production since their August report. Objective “in
field” U.S. corn yield measurements in top U.S. corn producing states were conducted by USDA NASS
representatives between October 24 and November 5, 2015 to gather information on expected U.S. corn
yields as of November 1, 2015. During the same time period approximately 9,200 farm operator surveys were
conducted by the USDA primarily by phone. Forecast accuracy (root mean square error) of this November 1,
2015 projection is 1.1 percent, indicating that there is a 67% probability of the final 2015 estimate being within
plus or minus 1.1% of the USDA’s November 1st projection of 13.654 billion bushels, i.e., in the range of 13.503
to 13.804 billion bushels.
On the same day the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
I‐B. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME MARCH 2016 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2016 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off MARCH corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” MARCH 2016 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “negative” manner to the
information in the November 10th USDA reports, and in the days afterward has trended sideways‐to‐marginally
higher. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Tuesday, November 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2016
corn futures prices opened at $3.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.65 ‐ $3.76 ½ during the session,
before settling at $3.82 ¾ – down $0.08 ½ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2016 Corn has traded
from a low of $3.64 ¼ on November 16th to a high of $3.75 ½ on December 1st before closing at $3.73 ¾ on the
same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2016 corn contract represents price prospects during September‐November, 2016 –
including the anticipated bulk of the key U.S. corn harvest period of October through early November, 2016.
DECEMBER 2016 is the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for most of the “harvest
2016” corn and grain sorghum forward contract price bids or hedges. The DECEMBER 2016 corn futures
market contract also initially responded “negatively” to the information in the November 10th USDA reports,
and since has trended sideways‐to‐lower.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2016 corn futures prices opened at $3.95 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $3.87 ‐ $3.95 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.90 ½ – down $0.04 ½ per bushel
Page | 3
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2016 Corn has traded from lows of $3.87 ¼ on November 13th
and 18th to a high of $3.97 ¼ on December 1st before closing at $3.95 ¾ on that same day.
Figure 1. MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts
ne …
September 1, 2009
KFMA Newsletters
family is ready to discuss
transition planning. This self-assessment … Institute published a
paper in 2007 that pertains to the current …