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April 15, 2021
Land Buying and Valuing
Trends
20202020
Agricultural Economics
1Kansas Agricultural … State University Agricultural Economics
Department. Agricultural … Associate
K-State Agricultural Economics
robinreid@ksu.edu
785-532-0964
Electronic …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
lbs (see Table 1). From an economic
standpoint, failure to share … so
that both parties have economic incentives for
optimal fertilizer … be functioning at maximum economic
efficiency. This may result …
May 1, 2003
Livestock & Meat Demand
C. Schroeder
Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University … Needs Fellow
Agricultural Economics
Ted C. Schroeder
tcs@ksu.edu … Professor
Agricultural Economics
Waters Hall
Kansas …
March 26, 2021
Meat Demand Research Studies
price
sensitivity boosts economic understanding of pork market … pointing to notably different
economic impacts of anything altering … To further investigate the economic importance of heterogeneity …
December 20, 2024
Land Buying and Valuing
Trends
20242024
Agricultural Economics
1Kansas Agricultural … State University Agricultural Economics
Department. Agricultural … Associate
K-State Agricultural Economics
robinreid@ksu.edu
785-532-0964
Electronic …
Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.ageconomics.ksu.edu … gt;Deliver leading edge economic
research and technology … Value of Farm Production
Economic Total Expense Ratio (Line …
November 5, 2013
Risk Management Strategies
Jr.
Professor, Agricultural Economics. Kansas State University
Presented …
February 1, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
y,
Professor
Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
Sponsored …
June 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
w crop” MY 2014/15 – up to 145.0 mmt, which would be up 10.4% over the
three year period. This compares to U.S. soybean production of 82.6 mmt in MY 2012/13, 89.5 mmt in
“current” MY 2013/14, and a projected amount of 98.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/14 – up 19.8% over the
same three year period. Also, the key market demand “driver” of Chinese soybean imports were estimated to
be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13, and 69.0 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, and are projected to be 72.0 mb in “new
crop” MY 2014/15 – up 20.3% over the same three marketing years.
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability
of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels by the USDA is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Rumors exist of
slowing Chinese soybean import demand due to swine industry production problems or other economic or
financial factors. However, given the information available to the USDA at this time, the agency has projected
a continuance of the strong growth trend in Chinese imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 in its May and June
WASDE reports. If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports were to falter for whatever reason, it
could have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
The timing and availability of the bulk of exportable South American soybean supplies will be a key market
factor for the remainder of 2014. This year will the Brazilian export system be able to handle large supplies of
soybeans, corn and other products in a more efficient and timely manner than occurred in 2013? At present
there are fewer reports of logistical problems occurring in South American ports than a year ago. Both USDA
and KSU price forecast scenarios for soybeans assume that there will be continued strength of soybean import
demand from China and elsewhere – and that there will be an avoidance of South American grain export
logistical problems of the same degree as occurred a year ago.
In conclusion, U.S. soybean prices thus far in 2014 have been supported by continued Chinese export
demand and at least some uncertainty to date regarding 2014 crop production prospects in the United States.
Price weakness or at least “moderation” in soybean prices is likely to occur in the late spring‐summer of 2014
IF what is shaping up to be a record high 2014 South American soybean crop is moved into export channels in a
timely‐efficient manner, and if prospects develop through the summer months for a large 2014 U.S. soybean
crop to be produced.
I‐B. June 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On June 11, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its June 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY
2014/15. The “current” 2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15
U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
Page | 3
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release its 2014 Acreage and June Quarterly
Stocks reports on Friday, June 30. The 2014 Acreage report will provide a survey‐based update of 2014
planted and harvested acreage of U.S. soybeans and other crops. The June Quarterly Stocks report will
provide information on the pace of U.S. soybean usage during the March‐April‐May 2014 quarter, and on the
levels of U.S. soybean stocks on June 1, 2014, and allow for better accuracy in projecting U.S. soybean
“current” MY 2013/14 ending stocks on August 31, 2014.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the June 11th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the July 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Wednesday, June
11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.61 ¾ per bushel, and
traded as high as $14.66 ½ and as low as $14.44 ½ during the session, before settling at $14.45 ½ – down $0.17
for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e.,
12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have
traded generally lower – from a high of $14.52 ¾ on June 12th, to a low of $13.93 ½ on Wednesday, June 18th
before closing at $14.09 on the same day. Prior to the June 11th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had
trended sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of
$15.21 on April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th, and then to a “higher high” of $15.36 ¾ on May 22, before
trending lower through late May and early‐mid June.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …