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August 1, 2024
Breakout Sessions
Club of Rome: Limits of Growth (1972) – Economic growth is capped by resource depletion – …
October 5, 2023
Land Rental
Rates
Department of Agricultural Economics
AgManager.info
email: ibendahl@ksu.edu
email …
November 15, 2024
Land Rental
Rates
Department of Agricultural Economics
AgManager.info
email: ibendahl@ksu.edu
email …
April 18, 2025
Prices and Price Forecasts
Department of Agricultural Economics
AgManager.info
email: ibendahl@ksu.edu
YouTube …
August 1, 2025
Breakout Sessions
ension Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics Department,Kansas State Un … nsas State University
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor from Ukraine
• … stabilize production, expand economic opportunities for farmers …
October 1, 2025
2025 Kansas Crop Insurance Presentations
Insurance Program
which provides economic stability to agricultural …
February 18, 2013
Risk Management Strategies
Professor
Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
,
Sponsored … Mark II: The taxpayer and economic welfare costs of price
loss …
June 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
ests approach requiring both commercial and on‐farm storage space, 2)
continued stronger‐than‐anticipated use of 2015 crop U.S. corn in ethanol production, livestock feeding or
exports resulting from low U.S. feedgrain prices and moderating U.S. dollar values (exports), and 3) the
possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and financial system disr …
July 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… bean market will be sideways‐
to‐weaker at best from now through fall harvest, with the possibility of falling below $10.00 during the most
intensive harvest periods. However, ongoing World demand for soybeans and soybean products and the
stimulative impact of lower prices on buyers, production uncertainty in South America through November‐
February, and uncertainty in World energy and economic markets may provide baseline‐level support for
soybean markets through the winter and early spring months.
Page | 3
I‐B. July 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On July 11, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its July 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for both the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY
2014/15. The “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15
U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015. The July 11th WASDE
report made use of the information released in the June 30th National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS)
Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports. The July 11th WASDE report’s 2014 U.S. soybean production forecast
was based on the projected planted and harvested acreage totals in the June 30th USDA NASS Acreage report,
while information in the June 30th USDA NASS Quarterly Stocks report was used in calculating adjustments to
“old crop” MY 2013/14 U.S. corn usage and ending stocks in the July 11th USDA WASDE report.
The upcoming August 12th USDA NASS Crop Production report will provide the first in‐field survey based
forecast of the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. This 2014 production estimate will provide the basis for the August
11th WASDE report projection of U.S. soybean supply‐demand and prices.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the July 11th USDA Reports
The “old crop” or “current” AUGUST 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and
ultimately positive manner to the information in the July 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday,
July 11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $12.32 ½ per bushel,
and traded as high as $12.38 ¼ and as low as $11.59 ¼ during the session, before settling at $11.95 ¾ – down
$0.37 for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session,
i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then AUGUST 2014 soybean futures prices
have traded generally lower – from a high of $12.11 ½ on July 14th, to a low of $11.53 ¼ on July 15th before
closing at $11.76 ¾ on Friday, July 18th. Prior to the July 11th report, AUGUST 2014 soybean futures had
trended sharply higher from a low of $11.95 ¾ on January 30, 2014 to a high of $14.59 on May 22nd, and then
after trending lower, another high of $13.92 ¼ on June 22nd, before declining sharply down to present levels
below $12.00 in mid‐July.
Figure 1. AUGUST 2014 and NOVEMBER 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
September 6, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
U.S. 2015/16 ($4.21 Avg$)
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
January 7 – September 2, 2016
Close = $4.49 ¼ on 9/2/2016
DEC 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
January 7 – September 2, 2016
Close = $4.13 ¼ on 9/2/2016
Page | 5
period (Figure 2). “Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016 and will conclude on May
31, 2017. If this projected price pattern were to become reality, it would signal the likelihood of returns to
storage for Kansas wheat following the summer 2016 harvest through early 2017. These projections are taken
from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) wheat futures price forecast model, available online at the
following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
According to historic price patterns, most of the post‐harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices is usually
realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the
marketing year. The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June‐July and the
period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February‐March), with
accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).
U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index
Increases in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies of U.S. trading partner countries began
in earnest when the dollar index was valued at 77.2692 on August 15, 2014 (Figure 3). This upward trend
continued through January 2016 with the index climbing to a high of 95.8011 on January 20th ‐ up 24.0% from
mid‐August 2014. Since then the index has declined, falling to a low of 87.7060 on May 2, 2016, before
trending moderately higher again. On August 26, 2016 the U.S. Dollar index was calculated to be 89.5856 –
down 6.5% from the January 20th high of 95.8011, but still up 15.9% from 77.2692 in mid‐August 2014.
Figure 3. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index – Major Currencies (DTWEXM) …