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Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.ageconomics.ksu.edu … Department of
Agricultural Economics, 308 Waters Hall, 1603 Old …
May 9, 2016
USDA METSS Project
Department of Agricultural Economics
306 Waters Hall
Kansas … 46
Economic Performance … for USAID Ghana Mission’ Economic Growth Office. The sample …
June 4, 2025
Production Publications
Department of Agricultural Economics
AgManager.info
email: ibendahl@ksu.edu
YouTube … Department of Agricultural Economics
AgManager.info
email: ibendahl@ksu.edu
YouTube … Department of Agricultural Economics
AgManager.info
email: ibendahl@ksu.edu
YouTube …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 17 marketing years indicate definite
seasonal impacts or trends in cash wheat prices (Figure 2). Since the 1999/2000 marketing year Kansas hard
red winter wheat cash prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average
seasonal price index of 98.4% of the unweighted marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June
through May marketing year. However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then tended to trend higher after
harvest through September‐October, and then trended sideways from November through January, with
moderate seasonal strength in February‐March – followed by a sideways‐to‐lower trend during April and May.
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
October 29, 2015 – December 28, 2016
Close = $4.32 on 12/28/2016
MARCH 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
October 29, 2015 – December 28, 2016
Close = $4.09 ½ on 12/28/2016
Page | 5
The projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat in the “current crop” 2016/17
marketing year exhibits a pronounced price low in August‐September 2016 with monthly prices climbing
irregularly from October through January 2017 – with a sideways to declining trend during February, followed
by a sideways trend in April‐May (Figure 2). “Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016
and will conclude on May 31, 2017. If this projected price pattern becomes reality, it would signal the
likelihood of returns to storage for Kansas wheat over the October 2016 harvest through January 2017 period.
These projections are taken from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) wheat futures price forecast
model, available online at the following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
According to historic price patterns, most of the post‐harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices is usually
realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the
marketing year. The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June‐July and the
period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February‐March), with
accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).
Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 17 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – MY 2015/16)
plus “New Crop” MY 2016/17 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
…
April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 17 marketing years indicate definite
seasonal impacts or trends in cash wheat prices (Figure 2). Since the 1999/2000 marketing year Kansas hard
red winter wheat cash prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average
seasonal price index of 98.4% of the unweighted marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June
through May marketing year. However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then tended to trend higher after
harvest through September‐October, and then trended sideways from November through January, with
moderate seasonal strength in February‐March – followed by a sideways‐to‐lower trend during April and May.
The projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat in the “current crop” 2016/17
marketing year exhibits a pronounced price low in August‐September 2016 with monthly prices climbing
irregularly from October through April 2017 – with a sideways to declining trend during May (Figure 2).
“Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016 and will conclude on May 31, 2017. If this
projected price pattern becomes reality, it would signal the likelihood of returns to storage for Kansas wheat
over the October 2016 through April 2017 period. These projections are taken from the USDA Economic
Research Service (ERS) wheat futures price forecast model, available online at the following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
According to historic price patterns, most of the post‐harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices is usually
realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the
marketing year. The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June‐July and the
period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February‐March), with
accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).
Page | 5
Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 17 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – MY 2015/16)
plus “Current Crop” MY 2016/17 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index & Global Wheat Prices
Since 1973 the monthly average trade‐weighted index value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies
of major U.S. trading partner countries has averaged 94.3610 with a median value of 93.4719 – indicating
some positive skewness in U.S. dollar index values (i.e., a few higher values pulling up the average) (Figure 3).
The historic low in the U.S. dollar trade weighted index since 1973 was 69.0639 – occurring in August 2011.
The historic high of 143.9059 occurred in March 1985 – coinciding with the U.S. farm crisis period. Since
January 1973 the U.S. dollar index has declined on average at a rate of ‐0.0586 per month …
May 22, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 17 marketing years indicate definite
seasonal impacts or trends in cash wheat prices (Figure 2). Since the 1999/2000 marketing year Kansas hard
red winter wheat cash prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average
seasonal price index of 98.4% of the unweighted marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June
through May marketing year. However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then tended to trend higher after
harvest through September‐October, and then trended sideways from November through January, with
moderate seasonal strength in February‐March – followed by a sideways‐to‐lower trend during April and May.
The projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat in the “current crop” 2016/17
marketing year exhibited a pronounced price low in August‐September 2016 with monthly prices climbing
irregularly from October through March 2017 – with a sideways to declining trend during April‐May (Figure 2).
“Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016 and will conclude on May 31, 2017. If this
projected price pattern becomes reality, it would signal the likelihood that returns to storage occurred for
Kansas wheat over the October 2016 through March 2017 period. These projections are taken from the USDA
Economic Research Service (ERS) wheat futures price forecast model, available online at the following web
address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
According to historic price patterns, most of the post‐harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices is usually
realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the
marketing year. The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June‐July and the
Page | 5
period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February‐March), with
accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).
This updated version of the USDA futures‐based price model projects for “current” MY 2016/17 that the
final U.S. wheat season average price will be $3.92 per bushel. This is up $0.02 per bushel from the May 10th
USDA WASDE midpoint projection of $3.90. The seasonal price patterns presented in Figure 2 are calculated
as a percent of an adjusted USDA’s futures‐based price model season average price for “new crop” MY
2016/17 of $3.92 per bushel.
Projected prices for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that the final U.S. corn season average price will be $4.61 per
bushel. This is up $0.43 per bushel from the May 10th USDA WASDE midpoint projection of $4.25, and nearly
equal to the upper end of the USDA forecast range of $3.85‐$4.65 per bushel. However, the seasonal price
patterns presented in Figure 2 are calculated as a percent of an adjusted USDA’s futures‐based price model
season average price for “current” MY 2016/17 of $3.92 per bushel. This projection reflects higher projected
cash prices (i.e., from deferred futures prices and basis projections) for the June 1, 2017 through May 31, 2018
period (i.e., for “next crop” MY 2017/18) than have actually have occurred or are projected over the June 1,
2016 through May 31, 2017 time frame (i.e., in “current” MY 2016/17).
Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 17 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – MY 2015/16)
plus “Current Crop” MY 2016/17 & “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Estimate (Source: KSU
www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index & Global Wheat Prices
Since 1973 the monthly average trade‐weighted index value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies
of major U.S. trading partner countries has averaged 94.3604 with a median value of 93.4719 – indicating
some positive skewness in U.S. dollar index values (i.e., a few higher values pulling up the average) (Figure 3).
The historic low in the U.S. dollar trade weighted index since 1973 was 69.0639 – occurring in August 2011.
The historic high of 143.9059 occurred in March 1985 – coinciding with the U.S. farm crisis period. Since
January 1973 the U.S. dollar index has declined on average at a rate of ‐0.0586 per month …
August 18, 2014
Risk Management Strategies
Department of Agricultural Economics,
K-State Research and Extension …
April 8, 2014
Risk Management Strategies
Jr.
Professor, Agricultural Economics.
Kansas State University
KSU …
August 3, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
Department of Agricultural Economics, K-State
Research and Extension …
August 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
“Tighter Stocks”
The USDA released their wheat production, supply‐demand and price projections for the U.S. for “new
crop” MY 2018/19 in the August 10th Crop Production & WASDE reports (Tables 1a‐b).
U.S. wheat plantings are forecast to be 47.821 million acres (ma) in 2018, up from the record low of 46.012
ma in 2017, but down from 50.119 ma in 2016 (Table 1, Figure 5‐6). Harvested acres are forecast at 39.556
ma in 2018 (82.72% harvested‐to‐planted), up from the record low of 37.586 ma (81.69% harvested‐to‐
planted) in 2017, but down from 43.850 ma in 2016 (87.49% harvested‐to‐planted) (Table 1, Figure 6). The
2018 U.S. average wheat yield is estimated at 47.5 bu/ac, up from 46.3 bu/ac in 2017, but down from the 2016
record high of 52.7 bu/acre (Table 1, Figure 7).
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2018 is forecast to be 1.877 billion bushels (bb), up from 1.741 bb in 2017,
but down from 2.309 bb in 2016. Projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 total supplies are forecast at 3.112 bb, up
from 3.079 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and down from 3.402 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figure 8).
U.S. Wheat total use of 2.177 bb is forecast for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (up 80 mb from June, and up 45
mb from July), up from 1.978 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from 2.222 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figure
9). By usage category, in “new crop” MY 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports are projected to be 1.025 bb (up 75 mb
from June, and 50 mb from July), and up from 901 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, while being down from 1.051
bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figures 10 & 11).
CommentaryKSU: U.S. wheat exports fell to 47‐year lows of 778 mb and 864 mb in MY 2015/16 and MY
2014/15, respectively, down to levels just marginally above those pre‐“Russian Grain Deal” in 1972. This is
more evidence of the only marginally competitive position in recent years that U.S. wheat exports find
Page | 5
themselves in among foreign export competitors. However, tightening supplies of foreign wheat exporters
may cause U.S. wheat exports to strengthen in the later part of “new crop” MY 2018/19 (i.e., likely fall 2018)
Food Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 970 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, up
marginally from 967 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and trending higher from 949 mb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1,
Figure 9). Feed & Residual Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 120 mb in “new crop” MY 2018/19 (down 10
mb from July), up from 48 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (down 22 mb from June, and down 2 mb from July),
and from 161 mb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figure 9).
CommentaryKSU: With the USDA’s forecast of tighter U.S. corn and total feedgrain supplies along with
higher feedgrain prices, the USDA is anticipating that feeding wheat to livestock will become more
economically viable compared to a year earlier – even with the 10 mb decline in the current marketing year
forecast of feed & residual use.
The USDA projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 ending stocks to be 935 mb (42.95% S/U). Ending stocks of
935 mb are down 50 mb from July, while 42.95% S/U are down from 46.2% S/U in the July WASDE report.
Ending stocks of 935 mb (42.95% S/U) for “new crop” MY 2018/19 are down substantially from 1.100 bb in
“old crop” MY 2017/18 (55.6% S/U), and from 1.181 bb in MY 2016/17 (53.15% stocks/use) (Table 1, Figures
11 & 12).
CommentaryKSU: This projection of 935 mb in U.S. wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2018/19 is the
lowest in five (5) years – since 752 mb (37.3% stocks/use) in MY 2014/15. Still, until either a major wheat
production shortfall or what could be an “anticipated” surge in U.S. wheat exports occurs, the U.S. will likely
remain in the current “large supply – large ending stocks” situation.
United States’ wheat prices are projected to be in the range of $4.60‐$5.60 /bu – averaging $5.10 /bu in
“new crop” MY 2018/19 (up $0.10 /bu from July). This would be up from $4.73 /bu in “old crop” MY 2017/18,
from $3.89 in MY 2016/17, and $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, but still down from $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15 (Table
1, Figures 11 & 12).
CommentaryKSU: It is estimated by KSU that these USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2018/19 have a
60% probability of occurring.
G. Three “Alt” KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2018/19 …