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April 28, 2023
Land Buying and Valuing
Trends
20222022
Agricultural Economics
1Kansas Agricultural … State University Agricultural Economics
Department. Agricultural … Associate
K-State Agricultural Economics
robinreid@ksu.edu
785-532-0964
Electronic …
August 1, 2023
Breakout Sessions
fire breaks, disking, tree removal, etc.
Concluding Remarks
Wildfires do have a significant impact across the agricultural landscape, with potentially significant economic damages.
More research …
January 30, 2024
Land Buying and Valuing
Trends
20232023
Agricultural Economics
1Kansas Agricultural … State University Agricultural Economics
Department. Agricultural … Associate
K-State Agricultural Economics
robinreid@ksu.edu
785-532-0964
Electronic …
May 14, 2024
International Grain Markets
71
Report to Congress on Economic Effects of Red Sea Disruptions … forged stronger political and economic ties
with interests that … affairs from a
political, economic and military standpoint …
Executive Summary
Department of Agricultural Economics Department of AgriculturalEconomics
kherbel@ksu.edu dikemanm@ksu.edu … important in the current economic, and production, risk environment …
November 5, 2013
Risk Management Strategies
Jr.
Professor, Agricultural Economics. Kansas State University
Presented …
February 1, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
y,
Professor
Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
Sponsored …
June 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
w crop” MY 2014/15 – up to 145.0 mmt, which would be up 10.4% over the
three year period. This compares to U.S. soybean production of 82.6 mmt in MY 2012/13, 89.5 mmt in
“current” MY 2013/14, and a projected amount of 98.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/14 – up 19.8% over the
same three year period. Also, the key market demand “driver” of Chinese soybean imports were estimated to
be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13, and 69.0 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, and are projected to be 72.0 mb in “new
crop” MY 2014/15 – up 20.3% over the same three marketing years.
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability
of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels by the USDA is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Rumors exist of
slowing Chinese soybean import demand due to swine industry production problems or other economic or
financial factors. However, given the information available to the USDA at this time, the agency has projected
a continuance of the strong growth trend in Chinese imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 in its May and June
WASDE reports. If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports were to falter for whatever reason, it
could have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
The timing and availability of the bulk of exportable South American soybean supplies will be a key market
factor for the remainder of 2014. This year will the Brazilian export system be able to handle large supplies of
soybeans, corn and other products in a more efficient and timely manner than occurred in 2013? At present
there are fewer reports of logistical problems occurring in South American ports than a year ago. Both USDA
and KSU price forecast scenarios for soybeans assume that there will be continued strength of soybean import
demand from China and elsewhere – and that there will be an avoidance of South American grain export
logistical problems of the same degree as occurred a year ago.
In conclusion, U.S. soybean prices thus far in 2014 have been supported by continued Chinese export
demand and at least some uncertainty to date regarding 2014 crop production prospects in the United States.
Price weakness or at least “moderation” in soybean prices is likely to occur in the late spring‐summer of 2014
IF what is shaping up to be a record high 2014 South American soybean crop is moved into export channels in a
timely‐efficient manner, and if prospects develop through the summer months for a large 2014 U.S. soybean
crop to be produced.
I‐B. June 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On June 11, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its June 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY
2014/15. The “current” 2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15
U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
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The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release its 2014 Acreage and June Quarterly
Stocks reports on Friday, June 30. The 2014 Acreage report will provide a survey‐based update of 2014
planted and harvested acreage of U.S. soybeans and other crops. The June Quarterly Stocks report will
provide information on the pace of U.S. soybean usage during the March‐April‐May 2014 quarter, and on the
levels of U.S. soybean stocks on June 1, 2014, and allow for better accuracy in projecting U.S. soybean
“current” MY 2013/14 ending stocks on August 31, 2014.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the June 11th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the July 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Wednesday, June
11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.61 ¾ per bushel, and
traded as high as $14.66 ½ and as low as $14.44 ½ during the session, before settling at $14.45 ½ – down $0.17
for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e.,
12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have
traded generally lower – from a high of $14.52 ¾ on June 12th, to a low of $13.93 ½ on Wednesday, June 18th
before closing at $14.09 on the same day. Prior to the June 11th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had
trended sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of
$15.21 on April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th, and then to a “higher high” of $15.36 ¾ on May 22, before
trending lower through late May and early‐mid June.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
December 22, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
ted to be up 12.9%
and 6.0%, respectively, over the three most recent marketing years.
Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports
The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this
same three period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt
Page | 3
in MY 2013/14 (32.0% of World total), and a projected amount of 107.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15
(34.4% of the World total).
United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8
mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.7% of World total), and a projected amount of 47.9 mmt in “current crop” MY
2014/15 (40.2% of the World total).
United States’ soybean production and exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 30.1%
over last year, and up 33.6% over two years ago.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability
of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the historically high
World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Economists have speculated that
Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine industry production problems or
other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors. However, the USDA has continued to project that
strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 in recent WASDE
reports. If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports were to falter, it could have a substantial
negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
With a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014, cash soybean prices had fell
below $9.00 per bushel in late November, but have since moved higher. Central Kansas Terminal cash bids
were in the range of $9.70 ½ ‐ $9.86 ½ on Friday, December 19th. “Current crop” January 2015 soybean
futures closed at $10.30 ½ per bushel that day, with “next year’s crop” November 2015 soybean futures
closing at $10.17 ½.
Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 indicate that a) Chinese soybean imports
will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be harvested in early‐mid 2015 will
again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in these projected trends in
production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market. The possibility of weather‐related
production problems in South America during the spring of 2015, or in the United States during the summer‐
fall of 2015 could impact these trends. However, until such potential production problems actually occur the
World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the foreseeable
future.
I‐B. December 2014 and Upcoming January 2015 USDA Reports
On December 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its December
2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. soybean production estimates for 2014.
The December 10th Crop Production report focused on U.S. cotton and orange production, with no substantive
changes made from the November 10th Crop Production report. The next major survey based USDA report
addressing U.S. crop production for soybeans, corn, other feedgrains, wheat, and other major crops will be the
USDA Annual Crop Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015. On that same
day USDA NASS will also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and U.S. Winter
Wheat Seedings reports.
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Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean
supply‐demand and price projections for the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. The “current crop”
2014/15 U.S. soybean marketing year began September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015. January
10th will also be the day that the USDA WAOB releases the next WASDE report.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the July 11th USDA Reports
“Current crop” JANUARY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the
information in the December 10th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the report CME JANUARY 2015
futures prices opened at $10.47 ¾ /bu, and traded as high as $10.60 ¼ and as low as $10.27 ¾ during the
session, before settling at $10.32 – down $0.17 ¼ for the day. Since then JANUARY 2015 soybean futures
prices have traded within the range from a high of $10.55 on December 15th, to a low of $10.15 on December
17th before closing at $10.30 ½ on December 19th.
Figure 1. JAN 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
June 14, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
The USDA released their wheat production, supply‐demand and price projections for the U.S. for “new
crop” MY 2017/18 in the June 12th Crop Production & WASDE reports (Tables 1a‐b).
U.S. wheat plantings are forecast to be 47.339 million acres (ma) in 2018, up from the record low of 46.012
ma in 2017, but down from 50.119 ma in 2016 (Table 1, Figure 5). Harvested acres are forecast at 38.9 ma in
2018 (82.3% harvested‐to‐planted), up from the record low of 37.586 ma (81.7% harvested‐to‐planted) in
2017, but down from 43.850 ma in 2016 (87.5% harvested‐to‐planted) (Table 1, Figure 5). The 2018 U.S.
average wheat yield is estimated at 46.9 bu/ac, up from 46.3 bu/ac in 2017, but down from the 2016 record
high of 52.7 bu/acre (Table 1, Figure 6).
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2018 is forecast to be 1.827 billion bushels (bb), up from 1.741 bb in 2017,
but down from 2.309 bb in 2016. Projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 total supplies are forecast at 3.043 bb,
down from 3.076 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and down from 3.402 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figure 7).
U.S. Wheat total use of 2.097 bb is forecast for “new crop” MY 2018/19, up from 1.996 bb in “old crop” MY
2017/18, and from 2.222 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figure 8). By usage category, U.S. wheat exports are
Page | 4
projected to be 950 mb in “new crop” MY 2018/19, up from 900 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, while being
down from 1.055 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figures 9 & 10).
CommentaryKSU: U.S. wheat exports fell to 47 year lows of 778 mb and 864 mb in MY 2015/16 and MY
2014/15, respectively, to levels just marginally above those pre‐“Russian Grain Deal” in 1972. This is more
evidence of the only marginally competitive position that U.S. wheat exports find themselves in among foreign
export competitors I recent years.
Food Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 965 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, up
marginally from 963 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and trending higher from 943 mb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1,
Figure 8). Feed & Residual Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 120 mb in “new crop” MY 2018/19, up from 70
mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from 156 mb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figure 8). CommentaryKSU: With the
USDA’s forecast of tighter U.S. corn and total feedgrain supplies along with higher feedgrain prices, the USDA is
anticipating that feeding wheat to livestock will become more economically viable.
The USDA projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 ending stocks to be 946 mb (45.1% Stocks/Use), down from
1.080 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (54.1% stocks/use), and 1.181 bb in MY 2016/17 (53.15% stocks/use)
(Table 1, Figures 11 & 12). CommentaryKSU: The anticipation of markedly lower U.S. 2018 HRW wheat
production is having the end effect on U.S. wheat supply‐demand balances of dropping ending stocks below
1.00 bb and ending stocks‐to‐use below 50%. To move ending stocks and % stocks‐to‐use much lower, it may be
necessary to sharply increase U.S. wheat exports and total usage.
United States’ wheat prices are projected to average $5.10 /bu in “new crop” MY 2018/19, up from $4.75
/bu in “old crop” MY 2017/18, from $3.89 in MY 2016/17, and $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, but still down from
$5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15 (Table 1, Figures 11 & 12). It is estimated by KSU that these USDA projections for
“new crop” MY 2018/19 have a 60% probability of occurring.
F. Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2018/19 …