Search
Displaying 221 - 230 of 5865
May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
ds, a record 3.635 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.780 bb total
supplies, 1.625 bb exports, 3.450 bb total use, 330 million bushel (mb) ending stocks, 9.6% ending stocks‐to‐
use, and $10.75 average price per bu. ($9.75 to $11.75). If forecast 2014 U.S. soybean production declines
from this projection, then price prospects could improve considerably from these conservative early 2014/15
price forecasts. The USDA also made significant changes in the MAY WASDE from a month ago in its estimate
of “current” MY 2013/14 imports (90 mb – up 25 mb), total supplies (3.519 bb – up 25 mb), crush (1.695 bb –
down 10 mb), exports (1.600 bb – up 20 mb), total use (3.390 bb – up 30 mb), ending stocks (130 mb – down 5
mb), % ending stocks‐to‐use (a record low 3.83% ‐ down from 4.02%), and prices ($13.10 /bu, up $0.10).
KSU U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of “next crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐
demand balances and prices are as follows: a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 60% prob. of 81.5 ma planted,
98.7% harvested‐to‐planted acres, expected yield of 43.0 bu/ac, 3.460 bb 2014 U.S. production, 3.610 bb U.S.
total supplies, 1.550 bb exports, 3.355 bb total use, 255 mb ending stocks, 7.6% S/U, & $11.55 /bu; b) “Low
Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 79.9 ma planted, 98.7% harvested‐to‐planted acres, low yields of 39.0
bu/ac, 3.076 bb 2014 U.S. production, 3.236 bb U.S. total supplies, 1.371 bb exports, 3.076 bb total use, 160
mb ending stocks, 5.20% S/U, & $13.75 /bu; and c) “High Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 83.1 ma planted,
98.7% harvested‐to‐planted acres, yields of 44.3 bu/ac, 3.636 bb 2014 U.S. production, 3.781 bb U.S. total
supplies, 1.600 bb exports, 3.455 bb total use, 326 mb ending stocks, 9.44% S/U, & $10.85 /bu.
World Soybean Total Supplies of 367 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 341 mmt in “current year”
MY 2013/14, and up from 321 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World soybean ending stocks of 82 mmt (29.3%
S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 67.0 mmt (24.8% S/U) in “current year” MY 2013/14, and up from
57.0 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Forecast total MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export
competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt) is projected to be 7.6% higher in the
coming year – with harvests available for use in the early months of 2015 to compete with the U.S. in World
grain export markets. However, these projections are still uncertain given the possibility of a strong El Nino
event beginning in mid‐2014 which could affect both U.S. and South American crop prospects in 2014/2015.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its monthly Crop
Production report. The May 2014 USDA Crop Production report provided the USDA’s initial survey‐based
projections of planted and harvested acreage, yields, and production for the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. Also on
May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The “current”
2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the May 9th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the May 9th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday, May 9th –
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded
as high as $14.91 ½ and as low as $14.53 during the session, before settling at $14.87 – up $0.17 ½ for the day
(Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded generally
sideways within a trading range – from a high of $14.96 on May 12th, to a low of $14.60 ½ on May 13th before
closing at $14.65 on Monday, May 16th. Prior to the May 9th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had trend
sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of $15.21 on
April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th prior to moving generally lower to the May 19th close of $14.85 ¼.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
April 8, 2014
Risk Management Strategies
Rights Reserved4/8/2014
1. Conservation compliance required to receive … 250K/$750K AGI limit
2. Conservation compliance issues
3. Privacy …
November 20, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
agent. Farmers must be in conservation compliance to be eligible … condition that farmers meet conservation compliance requirements in …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
spent
annually for lime,
conservation practices,
and other land … 25
Surface drainage $ × % $
Conservation practices $ × % $
Liming …
August 1, 2016
Breakout session presentations
has also received the 2012 Conservation Systems Precision
Ag Researcher … has also received the 2012 Conservation Systems Precision
Ag Researcher …
Breakout Sessions
has also received the 2012 Conservation Systems Precision
Ag Researcher …
March 28, 2015
beef products. 1.71 1.38
Conserve and protect land and water … beef products. 1.95 1.47
Conserve and protect the welfare of …
June 10, 2020
Recent Videos
Higher Incomes, Older Respondent, Larger Households, College, Hispanic, Midwest, Politically Conservative,
Food Values
… Lower Incomes, Older Respondent, Larger Households, College, White, Black, Midwest, Politically Conservative,
Food Values
…
January 3, 2023
Ag Law Issues
EPA. South Carolina Coastal
Conservation League, et al. v. Regan … USDA’s Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) is now completely …