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September 1, 2022
2022 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Individuals and others 1/
Farm debt estimates
“Individuals and others”
Growth of nontraditional finance
Sources: USDA Economic Research Service
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1960 … Blanket liens by traditional lenders
Key point: likely underestimates nontraditional market share
Equipment Financing Advertisements
Source: EDA data on select equipment for 14 states, 2001‐2019
Equipment Lending Comparisons
Source: USDA, ARMS EDA data on select equipment for 14 states, 2001‐2019Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and Economic Research Service, 2005‐ …
January 1, 2014
varying feed prices impact economic
returns. Table 2 shows how … values.
Department of Agricultural Economics — www.agmanager.info
Kansas …
January 1, 2014
is designed to serve as an economic guide
to the breeding-gestation-farrowing … Budget
Department of Agricultural Economics — www.agmanager.info
Kansas …
January 1, 2014
varying feed prices
impact economic returns. Table 2 shows how … values.
Department of Agricultural Economics — www.agmanager.info
Kansas …
January 1, 2014
varying feed prices
impact economic returns. Table 2 shows how … values.
Department of Agricultural Economics — www.agmanager.info
Kansas …
January 1, 2014
varying feed prices
impact economic returns. Table 2 shows how … values.
Department of Agricultural Economics — www.agmanager.info
Kansas …
April 16, 2024
Fed Cattle Pricing
of
these trends enhance economic welfare and correspond with …
June 25, 2024
Farm Profitability
Department of Agricultural Economics
AgManager.info
email: ibendahl@ksu.edu
1
AgManager.info … Department of Agricultural Economics provides. Since the FSA
provides …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 17 marketing years indicate definite
seasonal impacts or trends in cash wheat prices (Figure 2). Since the 1999/2000 marketing year Kansas hard
red winter wheat cash prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average
seasonal price index of 98.4% of the unweighted marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June
through May marketing year. However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then tended to trend higher after
harvest through September‐October, and then trended sideways from November through January, with
moderate seasonal strength in February‐March – followed by a sideways‐to‐lower trend during April and May.
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
October 29, 2015 – December 28, 2016
Close = $4.32 on 12/28/2016
MARCH 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
October 29, 2015 – December 28, 2016
Close = $4.09 ½ on 12/28/2016
Page | 5
The projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat in the “current crop” 2016/17
marketing year exhibits a pronounced price low in August‐September 2016 with monthly prices climbing
irregularly from October through January 2017 – with a sideways to declining trend during February, followed
by a sideways trend in April‐May (Figure 2). “Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016
and will conclude on May 31, 2017. If this projected price pattern becomes reality, it would signal the
likelihood of returns to storage for Kansas wheat over the October 2016 harvest through January 2017 period.
These projections are taken from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) wheat futures price forecast
model, available online at the following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
According to historic price patterns, most of the post‐harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices is usually
realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the
marketing year. The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June‐July and the
period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February‐March), with
accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).
Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 17 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – MY 2015/16)
plus “New Crop” MY 2016/17 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
…
April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 17 marketing years indicate definite
seasonal impacts or trends in cash wheat prices (Figure 2). Since the 1999/2000 marketing year Kansas hard
red winter wheat cash prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average
seasonal price index of 98.4% of the unweighted marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June
through May marketing year. However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then tended to trend higher after
harvest through September‐October, and then trended sideways from November through January, with
moderate seasonal strength in February‐March – followed by a sideways‐to‐lower trend during April and May.
The projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat in the “current crop” 2016/17
marketing year exhibits a pronounced price low in August‐September 2016 with monthly prices climbing
irregularly from October through April 2017 – with a sideways to declining trend during May (Figure 2).
“Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016 and will conclude on May 31, 2017. If this
projected price pattern becomes reality, it would signal the likelihood of returns to storage for Kansas wheat
over the October 2016 through April 2017 period. These projections are taken from the USDA Economic
Research Service (ERS) wheat futures price forecast model, available online at the following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
According to historic price patterns, most of the post‐harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices is usually
realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the
marketing year. The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June‐July and the
period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February‐March), with
accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).
Page | 5
Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 17 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – MY 2015/16)
plus “Current Crop” MY 2016/17 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index & Global Wheat Prices
Since 1973 the monthly average trade‐weighted index value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies
of major U.S. trading partner countries has averaged 94.3610 with a median value of 93.4719 – indicating
some positive skewness in U.S. dollar index values (i.e., a few higher values pulling up the average) (Figure 3).
The historic low in the U.S. dollar trade weighted index since 1973 was 69.0639 – occurring in August 2011.
The historic high of 143.9059 occurred in March 1985 – coinciding with the U.S. farm crisis period. Since
January 1973 the U.S. dollar index has declined on average at a rate of ‐0.0586 per month …