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December 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… and Estimates (WASDE) report on December
10, 2014, U.S. wheat market prices have trended highe … lances. The USDA projected for the “current crop” 2014/2015 marketing year that a) World wheat …
February 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… S. corn crop, and 2) prospects for record or near‐record World corn production and ending stocks
in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, prospects for a corn futures price rally above say $5.00 appear
limited – unless unexpected and substantial crop production or export availability problems occur in other
major coarse grain production regions of the World (such as in South America or Ukraine). Absent these
occurrences, price prospects are limited until at least April‐May 2015 ‐ the main U.S. corn planting season.
USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “Current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA left unchanged its forecast of 2014 U.S.
corn production to be a record 14.216 billion bushels (bb), based on projected planted and harvested acreage
of 90.597 million acres or ‘ma’, and 83.136 ma, respectively, and a record 2014 U.S. corn yield of 171.0 bushels
per acre. Projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.668 bb (billion bushels) are up 5.4% from 14.686 bb
last year. Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.645 bb (up 50 mb or million bushels from a month ago)
is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.250 bb (up 116 mb from last year), non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.395 bb (up
28 mb), exports of 1.750 bb (down 167 mb from a year ago), and feed and residual use of 5.250 bb (up 214 mb
vs last year). Ending stocks are forecast at 1.827 bb (13.4% S/U) – down 50 mb from a month ago, but up from
1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13. The USDA forecast that “current
crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices to be in the range of $3.40‐$3.90 per bu. with a midpoint of
$3.65 – vs. $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Corn Increased Usage Scenario for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15: An alternative KSU forecast for
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is: 20% prob. of 15.472 bb U.S. corn supplies (same as USDA), 13.741 bb total use
(up 0.7% from USDA), 1.731 bb ending stocks, 12.6% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn price (up $0.15 vs USDA)
KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16: Two KSU projections for “next crop” MY 2015/16
are as follows: a) “2015 Less 3 Million Acre‐13.4 bb Production” Scenario: 87.597 ma planted, 80.248 ma
harvested, early season USDA baseline forecast yields of 167.2 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.417 bb,
total supplies of 15.269 bb, total use of 13.725 bb, ending stocks of 1.444 bb, 10.52% S/U, & $4.15 /bu U.S.
corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Less 3 Million Acre‐13.0 bb Production” Scenario: Planted and harvested acres
unchanged, but a KSU trend line yield forecast of 162.3 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 13.024 bb, total supplies
of 14.876 bb, total use of 13.585 bb, ending stocks of 1.291 bb, 9.50% S/U, & $4.30 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,165 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15,
up from 1,127 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 1,002.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of
189.6 mmt (19.5% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 172 mmt (18.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and
from 138 mmt (16.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Combined MY 2014/15 corn production of major exporters Brazil
(75.0 mmt – down 4.5) and Argentina (23.0 mmt – down 3.0) is projected to be down 10.5 mmt (down 10%)
from MY 2013/14. Forecast Ukraine 2014 corn production of 28.5 mmt is down 2.45 mmt from a year ago.
With closing CME NOV‐2015 soybean futures of $9.86 ¼ and CME DEC‐2015 corn futures of $4.20 ½ on
2/17/2015, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.35 is neutral for the two crops in the U.S. (i.e., being equal to the
customary 2.3 breakeven level). Lack of profitability for U.S. corn at expected 2015 harvest prices is likely to
limit 2015 U.S. corn planted acres and corn production potential, and to provide at least a moderate amount of
support for U.S. corn prices in “next crop” MY 2015/16. …
December 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… d 2) prospects for record or near‐record World corn production and ending stocks in the “current
crop” 2014/15 marketing year, prospects for a co … down 3.9 mmt
from a year ago. South American acreage decisions either have been or are being made now for later
plantings of 2015 crops in the Dec‐January period. With closing CME NOV‐2015 soybean futures of $10.02 and
CME DEC‐2015 corn futures of $4.30 ¾ on 12/16/2014, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.33 is neutral for the
two crops in the U.S. (i.e., being essentially equal to the customary 2.3 breakeven level). If South American
farmers were to shift sizable acreage away from corn into 2015 soybeans – markedly diminishing foreign 2015
production prospects, and/or have weather‐induced 2015 corn production problems, then by March‐April
2015 World corn market price prospects for “ne …
November 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… crop, and 2) prospects for record or near‐record World corn production and
ending stocks in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, “new crop” corn … egions of the World. Absent a shortfall in World feedgrain market supply‐demand balances, …
September 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 1
Corn Market Outlook in September 2014 … end to the decline in corn prices that has occurred since mid‐May 2014. With the
existing market consensus that a record … …
July 15, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 1
Corn Market Outlook in July 2014 … d Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, July
11, 2014, U.S. corn market prices have responded neg … Y 2014/15 are projected to be up from 1,123 mmt in
“current” MY 2013/14, and up from 1,003 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of 118.1
mmt (19.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 173.4 mmt (18.3% S/U) in “current” MY 2013/14, and
up from 138.2 mmt (16.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Combined “new crop” MY 2014/15 corn production for major
export competitors Brazil (74.0 mmt – down 4.0) and Argentina (26.0 mmt – up 2.0) is projected to be down
2.0 mmt. However, with a large 2014 U.S. corn crop harvest anticipated to be available in World grain export
markets in late winter‐spring 2 …
May 15, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 1
Corn Market Outlook in May 2014
D … and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
reports on May 9, 2014, U.S. corn market prices initially responded … made its first projections of “new crop” 2014/15
marketing year supply‐demand and …
June 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 1
Corn Market Outlook in June 2014 … d Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on June 11,
2014, U.S. corn market prices have moved sideway … ry 10th.
The USDA made no changes in its projected U.S. corn supply‐demand balance sheets for the “new crop”
2014/15 marketing year. The USDA continue …
March 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 1
Wheat Market Outlook in March 2015
D … … tern. For the “current crop”
2014/15 marketing year the USDA projected …
November 20, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… and Estimates (WASDE) report on November
10, 2014, U.S. wheat market prices have generally res … mand balances. The USDA projected for the “new crop” 2014/2015 marketing year that a) World wheat …