Search
Displaying 211 - 220 of 497
March 4, 2024
Land Use Value Research
entire state, the supplier contact list was constructed so that …
June 11, 2024
Ag Law Issues
is a U.S. worker, to be
contacted for employment in the next …
December 1, 1997
Section 2: Considering Cooperatives
recognizes an opportunity and contacts others who
also may be interested … group are informed, making contacts
with knowledgeable individuals … consumers? This step involves
contacting potential buyers to ascertain …
October 16, 2020
Animal Health
Consignment 3 0.7%
Forward contact 8 1.8%
Carcass basis 18 … operation, who would you contact?
Number
reporting … 13
Nose-to-nose contact with livestock on adjacent …
August 20, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
by line.
Contact: Rich Llewelyn rvl@ksu.edu
Developed …
August 6, 2020
Land Buying and Valuing
20
Information Contacts … Agricultural Land Values Survey contacted the same operators that were … Agricultural Land Values Survey contacted all agricultural producers …
February 20, 2013
Risk Management Strategies
b k & i ll FC: Elevator contacts broker & pays any margin …
December 20, 2017
KFMA Newsletters
RFP school, feel free to contact myself or Dave Pratt (707-429-2292 …
July 19, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
red winter (HRW) harvest and sampling are more than 90% complete in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and
southeast Colorado; and there was significant progress north through Nebraska and into southern South Dakota.
Rain over the past week slowed harvest, as well as sample collection and processing, in eastern Colorado,
northwest Kansas and western Nebraska. As a result, new official HRW data will be available in the July 20 Harvest
Report, although Falling Number tests on a few existing samples show a very slight improvement in what remains a
sound crop.”
Page | 2
“Industry contacts report that test weights in Nebraska and South Dakota are above 60 lbs/bu (78.9 kg/hl) with
continued good protein levels. HRW harvest is also underway in Oregon (11% complete), and just starting in
Washington and Idaho. In addition, domestic millers continue to be pleased with absorption and stability in the
new crop.”
U.S. Wheat Associates indicated that according to its samples that average protein for the 2018 U.S. hard
red winter wheat (HRW) crop averaged 12.8%, with average test weight of 60.3 lb/bu, 11.4% moisture,
dockage of 0.5%. a falling number rating of 385 seconds, and 1.6% defects. This compares to the 2017 U.S.
HRW Wheat crop which according to U.S. Wheat Associates test data averaged 11.4% protein, 60.8 lbs/bu test
weight, 10.6% moisture, 0.6% dockage, 367 seconds for the Falling Number test, and 1.1% defects.
Consequently, the moderately lower yields occurring during the 2018 HRW harvest in Kansas and
Oklahoma (i.e., 38.0 bu/ac in 2018 in Kansas vs 48.0 bu/ac a year earlier, and 25.0 bu/ac in Oklahoma in 2018
vs 34.0 bu/ac a year ago) have been partially offset income‐wise by higher protein wheat.
C. Key World Wheat Supply‐Demand Results in the June 12th USDA WASDE Report
For the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) which began on June 1, 2018, the USDA projected the
following (Figures 13 thru 16b, Tables 2 thru 9):
World wheat total supplies in “new crop” MY 2018/19 would be a near record 1,009.75 million metric
tons (mmt) accompanied by record high total use of 748.9 mmt – down 0.5% and up 1.0%, respectively, from
“old crop” MY 2017/18. The USDA in essence projects that the recent “large supply – large use” situation that
has persisted for the global wheat market since the last “supply‐demand” period in MY 2012/13 will continue
(Figure 13). However, there are concerns that 2018‐2019 wheat crop production prospects and export supply
potential of parts of the European Union, the Black Sea Region (Russia & Ukraine), and Australia (including
several major World wheat exporters).
CommentaryKSU: These aggregate World supply and use numbers do NOT bring light to the shortage of
high protein wheat that is problematic in World markets, OR the sizable wheat stocks held by China that are
isolated from the World wheat market.
World wheat exports are forecast to also be a new record high of 185.45 mmt in the “new crop” 2018/19
marketing year – up from a 181.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, the previous record high of 183.2 mmt in MY
2016/17, and from 172.8 mmt in MY 2015/16 (Figure 13, Table 3). While World wheat exports are forecast to
increase by 11.8% since MY 2013/14 (i.e., 1 year after the short crop year of MY 2012/13), over the same
period U.S. wheat exports are projected to decline by 17.1% from 1.176 billion bushels in MY 2013/14 to 975
million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
CommentaryKSU: Concerns about adequacy of exportable supplies in other major wheat exporting countries
– aside from the U.S. – has raised the possibility of markedly stronger U.S. wheat exports occurring in “new
crop” MY 2018/19. This discussion reinforces the idea that the U.S. is currently positioned as an “emergency
supplier of last resort” to many global wheat importers.
World wheat ending stocks are projected to be 260.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2018/19 – the 2nd highest on
record following the record high of 273.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Figure 13, Table 8). World wheat
ending stocks have been growing an average of 13.8 mmt per marketing year from the low of 177.9 mmt in MY
2012/13 – out‐pacing the annual growth in total use of 10.3 mmt per marketing year.
Page | 3
World wheat percent ending stocks‐to‐use (S/U) are forecast to be 34.8% in “new crop” MY 2018/19 ‐ the
2nd highest on record (Figures 14a‐b, Table 9). The record high is 36.9% in “old crop” MY 2017/18. World
wheat % stocks‐to‐use has consistently increased each year since MY 2012/13 until the current year. Since
25.89% stocks/use in short crop MY 2012/13, World wheat percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use has increased to
28.3% in MY 2013/14; 31.35% in MY 2014/15; 34.4%‐34.8% in MY 2015/16‐2016/17; and to the record high of
36.9% S/U in “old crop” MY 2017/18; before the projected moderate decline to 34.8% in “new crop” MY
2018/19.
D. “World‐Less‐China” Wheat Supply‐Demand
The broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be “obscuring”
some important underlying market issues – particularly in regards to the “masking” effect of Chinese wheat
stocks on available World wheat supplies and stocks.
From a “World‐Less‐China” perspective, forecast ending stocks‐to‐use of 19.9% would be the lowest level
in 11 years (Table 9, Figures 15a‐b). “World‐Less‐China” wheat ending stocks‐to‐use would be down sharply
from 23.5% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from the range of 22.05% to 27.5% during the MY 2008/09 – MY
2017/18 period.
IF this “China supply isolation factor” eventually leads to noticeably tighter available global supplies of
purchasable wheat for buyers to gain access to in coming months, it could have a significant positive impact on
U.S. and World wheat market prices in “new crop” MY 2018/19. However, unless there is this change in the
broader, overriding focus of the World wheat market AWAY FROM large aggregate global supplies over TO
available “World‐Less‐China” supplies, the attention of the World wheat market and market prices may not
change in a positive direction. The information in the following section may be an impetus for that change.
E. “Major Exporter” vs “Rest of World‐less China” Wheat Supply‐Demand Issues
Ending stocks among global wheat exporters including Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union,
Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected to decline to 51.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2018/19. This
amount would be down from 67.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from the recent high of 68.5 mmt in MY
2016/17 (Figures 16). Excluding the United States with its current large stocks situation, the ending stocks of
the remaining six (6) major wheat exporters have declined to 24.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2018/19. This
amount would be down from the recent high of 37.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 and from the 36.4 mmt in
MY 2016/17.
Rest of the World (ROW) Wheat ending stocks: Excluding the major seven (7) global wheat exporters
Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States – wheat ending
stocks for the Rest of the World (ROW) are projected to increase to a record high 209.6 mmt in “new crop”
MY 2018/19. This amount would be up from 206.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up from 188.8 mmt in
MY 2016/17. Excluding China with its current large stocks situation – and limited participation in World wheat
trade, the ending stocks of the Rest of the World‐less‐China have decreased to 124.8 mmt in “new crop” MY
2018/19 (Figure 17). This amount would be down from the recent high of 146.7 mmt in “old crop” MY
2017/18, from 146.3 mmt in MY 2016/17, and the record high of 147.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
Projected percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use among global wheat exporters including Argentina, Australia,
Canada, the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected to decline to 30.7% in “new
crop” MY 2018/19 – down from 31.9% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, from 31.6% in MY 2016/17 and the recent
Page | 4
high of 32.7% in MY 2015/16 (Figure 16). Excluding the United States with its current large stocks situation,
the percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use of the remaining six (6) major exporters have declined to 26.5% in “new
crop” MY 2018/19. This amount would be down from 27.9% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, 27.3% in MY 2016/17,
and the recent high of 28.2% in MY 2015/16.
CommentaryKSU: These results show that while World wheat ending stocks have declined moderately,
“under the surface” of those numbers, wheat stocks are “tighter” among World exporters than they are for the
rest of the World. Tighter wheat stocks among exporters is a positive factor for U.S. wheat market price
prospects (since it could eventually lead to larger U.S. wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
F. U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand for “New Crop” MY 2018/19 …