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August 25, 2022
RELATIONSHIPAnnual, Retail Weight, Deflated All Fresh Retail Price
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA‐ERS, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Beef Demand Resources
See AgManager.info https://www.agmanager.info/livestock‐meat/meat‐demand
See AgManager.info
Meat Demand Research Studies
(links to Articles & Exec. Summaries)
“Impact of New Plant‐Based Protein Alternatives on U.S. Beef Demand”
“USDA ERS Meat Price Spread Data Product Review”
“Assessing Beef Demand Determinants”
….
See AgManager.info
Monthly Domestic Meat Demand Indices
[USDA/BLS Data]
Broad barometer based on per‐capita disappearance & ERS/BLS retail $
5‐6 week lag: August 9th …
September 11, 2023
Farm Profitability
Department of Agricultural Economics
AgManager.info
email: ibendahl@ksu.edu
2A …
October 10, 2023
Grain Marketing Presentations
for 2023-24
Agricultural Economics 520, Fall 2023
Kansas State …
December 18, 2024
Grain Marketing Presentations
Market Outlook
Agricultural Economics Update
K-State Walnut Creek …
April 24, 2025
Farm Profitability
Department of Agricultural Economics
AgManager.info
email: ibendahl@ksu.edu
YouTube …
March 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
…
Page | 4
I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. March 8th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On March 8th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its March 2018 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, 2016/17, and “old crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY). The “current”
MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On February 23rd the USDA Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) released its projections of U.S. Grain and
Oilseeds Outlook for “next crop” MY 2018/19 at the 94th annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington,
Virginia. The “next crop” 2018/19 marketing year for U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2018 and will last
through August 31, 2019. The next USDA U.S. corn production and supply‐demand estimates for the “next
crop” 2018/19 marketing year will be released in the May 10th USDA WASDE report. The May 2018 WASDE
report estimate for “next crop” MY 2018/19 will be based on USDA Economic Research Service (ERS)
projections from the upcoming USDA Prospective Plantings Report acreage (to be released on March 29th),
historic harvested‐to‐planted acreage relationships, and 2018 trend yields.
However, the first USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimate of 2018 U.S. corn
production based on actual farmer surveys and in‐field corn plot measurements will be available on August
10th, followed by similar reports in the September, October, and November USDA NASS Crop Production
reports, and the final summary report for 2018 to be released in January 2019.
I‐b. CME MAY & DECEMBER 2018 Corn Futures Trends
MARCH 2018 CME Corn Futures
Following a high of $4.30 on July 11, 2017, MAY 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures
prices trended downward through late summer, fall, and mid‐winter to a low of $3.53 ¾ on January 12, 2018
(Figure 1). Since then MAY 2018 corn futures prices have trended higher, up to a high or $3.95 ¼ on March 13,
2017, before closing at $3.86 ¾ on March 15th. In other words, through March 14th, MAY 2018 Corn futures
had risen to reclaim 54.4% of the $0.76 ¼ per bushel price decline that had occurred from July 11, 2017
through January 12, 2018.
DECEMBER 2018 CME Corn Futures
DECEMBER 2018 corn futures have followed a similar trading pattern to MAY 2018 corn futures. Following
highs of $4.29 ½ on July 11, 2017 and $4.28 on July 20th, DEC 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended downward through late summer, fall, and into winter to lows of $3.79 ¼ on December
17‐18, 2017, $3.79 ¾ on January 12, 2018 (Figure 1). Since then DEC 2018 corn futures prices have trended
higher, up to a high or $4.11 ½ on March 13, 2017, before closing at $4.06 ¼ on March 15th. Similar to MAY
2018 corn futures, as of March 14th DEC 2018 corn futures had risen to reclaim 56.7% of the $0.50 ¼ per
bushel price decline that had occurred from July 11, 2017 through December 17‐18, 2017.
Page | 5
CME Corn Futures MAY 2018 – SEPT 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MAY 2018 and SEPT 2018 corn futures on
Thursday, March 15th was $0.13 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $4.00 for SEPT 2018 Corn less $3.86 ¾ for MAY 2018 Corn),
or $0.0331 per bu. per month over 4 months. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas in
the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – and some as high as $0.06 per bushel per month in
adjoining states – before accounting for interest, additional handling costs, or other discounts.
Figure 1. MAY & DECEMBER 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of March 15, 2018) …
April 27, 2021
Grain Market Outlook
Market Special Review KSU Ag Economics
Daniel O’Brien, Extension …
February 28, 2025
Grain Market Outlook
Agricultural Outlook Board, the
Economic Research Service, the Foreign …
February 1, 2004
Assessing Business Opportunities
University’s Agricultural
Economics Research and Extension website … Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University …