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August 15, 2016
Breakout session presentations
Missouri-Columbia in Agricultural Economics. He has worked
with 130 … Master’s degree in Agriculture Economics in 1986
and Kansas State … Bachelor’s degree in Agricultural Economics in
1982. Mark grew up on …
June 8, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
Department of Agricultural Economics,
K-State Research and Extension … on percent subsidy is more economically efficient than a means
test …
May 31, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
Department of Agricultural Economics, K-State
Research and Extension … Administrator, Dept of Agricultural Economics, K-State Research &
Extension …
March 5, 2015
Risk Management Strategies
Department of Agricultural Economics, K-State
Research and Extension …
June 2, 2014
Risk Management Strategies
Department of Agricultural
Economics, K-State Research and Extension …
May 1, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
ProfessorProfessor
Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
S …
January 21, 2015
Risk Management Strategies
Department of Agricultural Economics, K-State
Research and Extension …
August 12, 2014
Risk Management Strategies
Jr.
Professor, Agricultural Economics.
Kansas State University
2014 …
February 20, 2013
Risk Management Strategies
Extension
Extension Agricultural Economics
Website:
A I fwww.Agmanager …
July 19, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
The USDA released their wheat production, supply‐demand and price projections for the U.S. for “new
crop” MY 2017/18 in the July 12th Crop Production & WASDE reports (Tables 1a‐b).
U.S. wheat plantings are forecast to be 47.821 million acres (ma) in 2018, up from the record low of 46.012
ma in 2017, but down from 50.119 ma in 2016 (Table 1, Figure 5). Harvested acres are forecast at 39.571 ma
in 2018 (82.75% harvested‐to‐planted), up from the record low of 37.586 ma (81.7% harvested‐to‐planted) in
2017, but down from 43.850 ma in 2016 (87.5% harvested‐to‐planted) (Table 1, Figure 5). The 2018 U.S.
average wheat yield is estimated at 47.5 bu/ac, up from 46.3 bu/ac in 2017, but down from the 2016 record
high of 52.7 bu/acre (Table 1, Figure 6).
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2018 is forecast to be 1.881 billion bushels (bb), up from 1.741 bb in 2017,
but down from 2.309 bb in 2016. Projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 total supplies are forecast at 3.117 bb, up
from 3.079 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and down from 3.402 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figure 7).
U.S. Wheat total use of 2.132 bb is forecast for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (up 35 mb from June), up from
1.978 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (down 18 mb from June), and from 2.222 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1,
Figure 8). By usage category, U.S. wheat exports are projected to be 975 mb (up 25 mb from June) in “new
crop” MY 2018/19, and up from 901 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, while being down from 1.051 bb in MY
2016/17 (Table 1, Figures 9 & 10).
CommentaryKSU: U.S. wheat exports fell to 47‐year lows of 778 mb and 864 mb in MY 2015/16 and MY
2014/15, respectively, to levels just marginally above those pre‐“Russian Grain Deal” in 1972. This is more
evidence of the only marginally competitive position that U.S. wheat exports find themselves in among foreign
export competitors in recent years. However, tightening supplies of foreign wheat exporters may cause U.S.
wheat exports to strengthen in the later part of “new crop” MY 2018/19 (i.e., likely fall 2018)
Food Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 965 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, up
marginally from 963 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and trending higher from 943 mb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1,
Figure 8). Feed & Residual Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 130 mb in “new crop” MY 2018/19 (up 10 mb
from June), up from 50 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (down 20 mb from June), and from 161 mb in MY
2016/17 (Table 1, Figure 8).
CommentaryKSU: With the USDA’s forecast of tighter U.S. corn and total feedgrain supplies along with
higher feedgrain prices, the USDA is anticipating that feeding wheat to livestock will become more
economically viable.
Page | 5
The USDA projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 ending stocks to be 985 mb (46.2% stocks/Use), down from
1.100 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (up 20 mb from June) (55.6% stocks/use), and 1.181 bb in MY 2016/17
(53.15% stocks/use) (Table 1, Figures 11 & 12).
CommentaryKSU: Although only a moderate reduction, the forecast of 985 mb in ending stocks for “new
crop” MY 2018/19 is the lowest in five (5) years since 752 mb (37.3% stocks/use) in MY 2014/15. Still, until
either a major wheat production shortfall or what would now be a “surprise” surge in U.S. wheat exports
occurs, the U.S. will likely remain in the current “large supply – large ending stocks” situation.
United States’ wheat prices are projected to be in the range of $4.50‐$5.50 /bu – averaging $5.00 /bu in
“new crop” MY 2018/19 (down $0.10 /bu from June). This would be up from $4.73 /bu in “old crop” MY
2017/18 (down $0.02 /bu from June), from $3.89 in MY 2016/17, and $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, but still down
from $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15 (Table 1, Figures 11 & 12). CommentaryKSU: It is estimated by KSU that these
USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2018/19 have a 50% probability of occurring.
G. Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2018/19 …