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December 2, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
Y 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and the record high $6.89 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “USDA S/D Estimates” Scenario (80% prob.): All supply‐demand assumptions equal
to the USDA’s, but with $3.75 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Smaller Crop” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S.
corn yield of 167.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.470 bb, total supplies of 15.232 bb, total use of
13.655 bb, ending stocks of 1.577 bb, 11.6% S/U, & $4.00 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Economic
Problems” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S. corn production and supplies equal to the USDA estimates, but lower
total use of 13.460 bb, ending stocks of 1.955 bb, 14.5% S/U, & $3.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,183.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,183.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.3 mmt in
MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks of 211.9 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up
from 208.2 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.9 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Downward adjustments by the USDA in the November WASDE report in Chinese corn feeding for the last three
marketing years had a marked impact on World corn supply‐demand balances relative to a month earlier.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. November USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On November 10th in its Crop Production report the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
made its’ fourth monthly projection of 2015 U.S. corn production since their August report. Objective “in
field” U.S. corn yield measurements in top U.S. corn producing states were conducted by USDA NASS
representatives between October 24 and November 5, 2015 to gather information on expected U.S. corn
yields as of November 1, 2015. During the same time period approximately 9,200 farm operator surveys were
conducted by the USDA primarily by phone. Forecast accuracy (root mean square error) of this November 1,
2015 projection is 1.1 percent, indicating that there is a 67% probability of the final 2015 estimate being within
plus or minus 1.1% of the USDA’s November 1st projection of 13.654 billion bushels, i.e., in the range of 13.503
to 13.804 billion bushels.
On the same day the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
I‐B. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME MARCH 2016 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2016 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off MARCH corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” MARCH 2016 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “negative” manner to the
information in the November 10th USDA reports, and in the days afterward has trended sideways‐to‐marginally
higher. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Tuesday, November 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2016
corn futures prices opened at $3.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.65 ‐ $3.76 ½ during the session,
before settling at $3.82 ¾ – down $0.08 ½ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2016 Corn has traded
from a low of $3.64 ¼ on November 16th to a high of $3.75 ½ on December 1st before closing at $3.73 ¾ on the
same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2016 corn contract represents price prospects during September‐November, 2016 –
including the anticipated bulk of the key U.S. corn harvest period of October through early November, 2016.
DECEMBER 2016 is the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for most of the “harvest
2016” corn and grain sorghum forward contract price bids or hedges. The DECEMBER 2016 corn futures
market contract also initially responded “negatively” to the information in the November 10th USDA reports,
and since has trended sideways‐to‐lower.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2016 corn futures prices opened at $3.95 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $3.87 ‐ $3.95 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.90 ½ – down $0.04 ½ per bushel
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for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2016 Corn has traded from lows of $3.87 ¼ on November 13th
and 18th to a high of $3.97 ¼ on December 1st before closing at $3.95 ¾ on that same day.
Figure 1. MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts
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Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
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