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October 5, 2023
Land Rental
Rates
recent grain prices, and KFMA farm expenses.
These breakeven … rentals rates for specific farms.
These Kansas State University … intended for the 2024 crop year. These
estimates include …
August 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
A. Wheat Futures & Cash Market Trends Following the August 10th USDA Reports
Since the U … rts
Since the USDA’s August 10th Crop Production and Wor … arvest in the Pacific Northwest was 44%‐78% complete across states involved.
On the day of the reports (August 10, 2018), SEPT 2018 Kansas HRW wheat futures opened at $5.78 /bu,
and traded in the range of $5.59‐$5.85 ½ before closing $0.18 ¾ lower to $5.59 ¾. Since then, SEPT 2018 HRW
wheat futures have trended lower, trading as high as $5.68 ¾ on August 17th and as low as $4.97 ¾ on August
29th before closing at $5.12 ¼ /bu on Thursday, August 30th (Figure 1).
On August 30th – the 14th trading day after the USDA reports – Kansas cash wheat price terminal quotes for
ordinary U.S. no. 1 HRW in central Kansas ranged from $4.92 ¼ to $5.19 ¼ per bushel – with basis ranging from
$0.20 under to $0.07 over SEPT 2018 futures. Cash wheat prices in eastern Kansas grain terminals ranged
from $4.82 ¼ to $4.97 ¼ with basis ranging from $0.30 under to $0.15 under SEPT 2018 futures. These prices
are up 35%‐44% from the range of $3.42 ¼ to $3.83 ¼ /bu in late December 2017 in eastern and central Kansas
– with basis at that time ranging from $0.80 under to $0.39 under nearby MARCH 2018 futures. A Hard White
Wheat (HWW) grain terminal bid was available in Wichita, Kansas on 8/29/2018 for $5.07 ¼ /bu, with a basis
of $0.05 /bu under SEPT 2018 Kansas HRW wheat futures.
In western Kansas on August 30th bids for ordinary U.S. no. 1 HRW wheat at selected grain elevators
ranged from $4.72 to $4.96 /bu, with basis being $0.40 under to $0.16 under SEPT 2018 futures. Recent wheat
cash price bids are up approximately 36% from $3.47 to $3.64 /bu in late December 2017 in western Kansas –
when local basis varied from $0.85 under to $0.58 under MARCH 2018 futures.
Key market factors that have positively influenced the hard red winter wheat market over the last few
weeks include the following. These are: 1) lower 2018 U.S. hard red winter wheat production; 2) higher
protein levels in drought‐damaged parts of the central and southern plains states of Texas, Oklahoma and
Kansas; and 3) foreign wheat crop concerns in competitive export countries. Major wheat producing countries
and/or regions of the World in which there are currently concerns about either the quality or quantity of 2018
wheat production include the European Union, parts of the Black Sea Region, and parts of Australia. Local
wheat basis levels that were “wide & weak” in December 2017 have strengthened by $0.46‐$0.60 /bu in
central Kansas, and by $0.42‐$0.45 /bu in western Kansas as of August 30, 2018.
B. 2018 U.S. HRW Wheat Protein & Quality Results
Harvest results for 2018 have shown lower yields but higher protein in Oklahoma and Kansas. The August
24th Harvest Report of the U.S. Wheat Associates (http://www.uswheat.org/harvest) stated:
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“U.S …
August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
2017 Risk and Profit Conference
Breakout Session … are focused in the area of farmmanagement. She attended
Montana State … majoring in Agribusiness Management. Her PhD in
Economics is …
September 22, 2022
Land Rental
Rates
recent grain
prices, and KFMA farm expenses. These breakeven … rentals rates for specific farms.
These Kansas State University … intended for the
2023 crop year. These estimates include …
Breakout Sessions
2015 Risk and Profit Conference
Breakout Session … the
property, sales, and income taxes that Kansas farmers … farmers pay using the
Kansas Farm …
August 1, 2023
Breakout Sessions
k and Interest Rates
Risk and Profit Conference
Brian C. Briggeman, Ph.D.Professor and Director
August 17th … 18th, 2023
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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) July 2024 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJForecast(July)
U.S. economic growth has remained resilient amid rising interest rates and higher inflation.
When will the U.S. officially enter a recession?
3
A leading indicator of the U.S. entering a recession tends to be an inverted yield curve.
Yield
(%)
Maturity
Normal Yield Curve
3 mo …
August 1, 2023
2023 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
k and Interest Rates
Risk and Profit Conference
Brian C. Briggeman, Ph.D.Professor and Director
August 17th … 18th, 2023
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Real GDP Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) July 2024 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJForecast(July)
U.S. economic growth has remained resilient amid rising interest rates and higher inflation.
When will the U.S. officially enter a recession?
3
A leading indicator of the U.S. entering a recession tends to be an inverted yield curve.
Yield
(%)
Maturity
Normal Yield Curve
3 mo …
July 1, 1996
Section 2: Considering Cooperatives
membership influence the farm/ranch operation?
• How … differently than traditional farm supply and elevator cooperatives … membership influence the farm/ranch operation?
4. How …
August 17, 2016
Breakout session presentations
2016 Risk and Profit Conference
Breakout Session … undergraduate level in data analysis and
optimization. Prior … production economics, and farm …
August 1, 2018
Breakout Sessions
RISK & PROFIT CONFERENCEMANHATTAN, KANSASAUGUST 17, 2018
Roger … CONFERENCEMANHATTAN, KANSASAUGUST 17, 2018
Roger A. McEowenKansas Farm Bureau Professor of Agricultural … DikemanAssociate DirectorKansas Farm …