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December 15, 2022
Dynamics
•https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/production-economics/updated-
evaluation-us-cattle-cycle
Context … Dynamics
•https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/production-economics/updated-evaluation-us-cattle-cycle
C-P-54
11/28/22
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JAN …
January 23, 2023
Dynamics
•https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/production-economics/updated-
evaluation-us-cattle-cycle
Context … Dynamics
•https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/production-economics/updated-evaluation-us-cattle-cycle
Jan …
May 31, 2023
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor
figures are Federal Reserve’s economic research resources indicating … Department of Agricultural Economics
Glynn Tonsor, Professor … Department of Agricultural Economics
Glynn Tonsor, Professor …
December 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “USDA S/D Estimates” Scenario (80% prob.): All supply‐demand assumptions equal
to the USDA’s, but with $3.60 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Smaller Crop” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S.
corn yield of 167.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.470 bb, total supplies of 15.232 bb, total use of
13.630 bb, ending stocks of 1.602 bb, 11.75% S/U, & $4.00 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Economic
Problems” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S. corn production and supplies equal to the USDA estimates, but lower
total use of 13.435 bb, ending stocks of 1.980 bb, 14.7% S/U, & $3.40 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA provided an
initial forecast of U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning
September 1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 90.5 million acres (ma) – up 2.119 ma
from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 82.7 ma would be 2.036 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of
168.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is projected to be 13.900 billion bushels (bb) – 2nd highest on record.
With forecast MY 2016/17 total use of 13.935 bb (record high), and ending stocks of 1.780 bb (12.77% S/U),
U.S. corn prices are projected to be $3.60 /bu – down marginally from $3.65 /bu in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,182.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,183.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.3 mmt in
MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks of 211.9 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up
from 208.2 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.9 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. December 2015 USDA WASDE Report
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
I‐B. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME MARCH 2016 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2016 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off MARCH corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” MARCH 2016 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “neutral” manner to the information
in the December 9th USDA reports, and in the days afterward has trended sideways‐to‐higher before declining
sharply on Wednesday, Ed. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session,
i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Wednesday, December 9th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2016
corn futures prices opened at $3.73 ½ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.70 ¼ ‐ $3.79 ¼ during the
session, before settling at $3.73 ¾ – up $0.00 ¼ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2016 Corn has
traded from a low of $3.62 ½ on December 17th high of $3.80 ¼ on December 11th to a before closing at $3.74
½ on Friday, December 18th.
Figure 1. MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 CME Weekly Corn Futures Price Charts
ne …
December 2, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
Y 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and the record high $6.89 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “USDA S/D Estimates” Scenario (80% prob.): All supply‐demand assumptions equal
to the USDA’s, but with $3.75 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Smaller Crop” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S.
corn yield of 167.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.470 bb, total supplies of 15.232 bb, total use of
13.655 bb, ending stocks of 1.577 bb, 11.6% S/U, & $4.00 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Economic
Problems” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S. corn production and supplies equal to the USDA estimates, but lower
total use of 13.460 bb, ending stocks of 1.955 bb, 14.5% S/U, & $3.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,183.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,183.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.3 mmt in
MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks of 211.9 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up
from 208.2 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.9 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Downward adjustments by the USDA in the November WASDE report in Chinese corn feeding for the last three
marketing years had a marked impact on World corn supply‐demand balances relative to a month earlier.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. November USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On November 10th in its Crop Production report the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
made its’ fourth monthly projection of 2015 U.S. corn production since their August report. Objective “in
field” U.S. corn yield measurements in top U.S. corn producing states were conducted by USDA NASS
representatives between October 24 and November 5, 2015 to gather information on expected U.S. corn
yields as of November 1, 2015. During the same time period approximately 9,200 farm operator surveys were
conducted by the USDA primarily by phone. Forecast accuracy (root mean square error) of this November 1,
2015 projection is 1.1 percent, indicating that there is a 67% probability of the final 2015 estimate being within
plus or minus 1.1% of the USDA’s November 1st projection of 13.654 billion bushels, i.e., in the range of 13.503
to 13.804 billion bushels.
On the same day the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
I‐B. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME MARCH 2016 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2016 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off MARCH corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” MARCH 2016 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “negative” manner to the
information in the November 10th USDA reports, and in the days afterward has trended sideways‐to‐marginally
higher. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Tuesday, November 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2016
corn futures prices opened at $3.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.65 ‐ $3.76 ½ during the session,
before settling at $3.82 ¾ – down $0.08 ½ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2016 Corn has traded
from a low of $3.64 ¼ on November 16th to a high of $3.75 ½ on December 1st before closing at $3.73 ¾ on the
same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2016 corn contract represents price prospects during September‐November, 2016 –
including the anticipated bulk of the key U.S. corn harvest period of October through early November, 2016.
DECEMBER 2016 is the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for most of the “harvest
2016” corn and grain sorghum forward contract price bids or hedges. The DECEMBER 2016 corn futures
market contract also initially responded “negatively” to the information in the November 10th USDA reports,
and since has trended sideways‐to‐lower.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2016 corn futures prices opened at $3.95 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $3.87 ‐ $3.95 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.90 ½ – down $0.04 ½ per bushel
Page | 3
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2016 Corn has traded from lows of $3.87 ¼ on November 13th
and 18th to a high of $3.97 ¼ on December 1st before closing at $3.95 ¾ on that same day.
Figure 1. MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts
ne …
September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
Glynn T. Tonsor
Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University1 … practices
2. Summarizing economic determinants driving how … data. Finally, we conduct new economic
modeling to better understand …
April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
Department
of Agricultural Economics
at Kansas State University … professor in the
Department of Economics at
Iowa State University … specialist on
livestock economics and
markets. Lee grew up …
September 22, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
Department of
Agricultural Economics, K-State Research and Extension …
October 22, 2010
Agribusiness Papers
EntrepreneursLeading Entrepreneurs
to their Dreams
Vincent Amanor‐Boadu, PhD
Department of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
Email: vincent@k‐state.edu
KSRE Extension Annual Conference, Oct. 19, 2010, KKSRE Extension Annual Conference, Oct. 19, 2010, K‐‐State UnionState Union
RationaleRationale
Y …
January 1, 2016
Assessing Business Opportunities
Department of Agricultural Economics • Kansas State University …