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July 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
soybeans and soybean products and the
stimulative impact of lower prices on buyers, production uncertainty in South America through November‐
February, and uncertainty in World energy and economic markets may provide baseline‐level support for
soybean markets through the winter and early spring months.
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I‐B. July 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On July 11, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its July 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for both the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY
2014/15. The “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15
U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015. The July 11th WASDE
report made use of the information released in the June 30th National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS)
Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports. The July 11th WASDE report’s 2014 U.S. soybean production forecast
was based on the projected planted and harvested acreage totals in the June 30th USDA NASS Acreage report,
while information in the June 30th USDA NASS Quarterly Stocks report was used in calculating adjustments to
“old crop” MY 2013/14 U.S. corn usage and ending stocks in the July 11th USDA WASDE report.
The upcoming August 12th USDA NASS Crop Production report will provide the first in‐field survey based
forecast of the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. This 2014 production estimate will provide the basis for the August
11th WASDE report projection of U.S. soybean supply‐demand and prices.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the July 11th USDA Reports
The “old crop” or “current” AUGUST 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and
ultimately positive manner to the information in the July 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday,
July 11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $12.32 ½ per bushel,
and traded as high as $12.38 ¼ and as low as $11.59 ¼ during the session, before settling at $11.95 ¾ – down
$0.37 for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session,
i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then AUGUST 2014 soybean futures prices
have traded generally lower – from a high of $12.11 ½ on July 14th, to a low of $11.53 ¼ on July 15th before
closing at $11.76 ¾ on Friday, July 18th. Prior to the July 11th report, AUGUST 2014 soybean futures had
trended sharply higher from a low of $11.95 ¾ on January 30, 2014 to a high of $14.59 on May 22nd, and then
after trending lower, another high of $13.92 ¼ on June 22nd, before declining sharply down to present levels
below $12.00 in mid‐July.
Figure 1. AUGUST 2014 and NOVEMBER 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …