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August 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
se of 2015‐2016 crop U.S.
corn in domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding, 3) at least moderate strength in U.S. corn
exports – driven largely by a poor harvest and lack of exportable supplies in Brazil, and 4) the possibility of
broader U.S. and Foreign economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other
commodity markets – such as unan …
September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
Government determination or policy. The authors acknowledge … market participants and
policy makers about industry structure … manage
risk; and inform policy and regulatory deliberations …
August 1, 2018
Breakout Sessions
on market risk, government commodity programs, crop insurance … crop insurance and public policy. He has authored several … farmers thought they had in 2012 when they cancelled their …
August 1, 2022
Breakout Sessions
key themes of the US farm policy are:
1 Risk Management
1 … Index Insurance (PRF)
2 Commodity Programs shifted to “risk … priorities of the US farm policy, risk management and
conservation …
August 1, 2022
2022 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
key themes of the US farm policy are:
1 Risk Management
1 … Index Insurance (PRF)
2 Commodity Programs shifted to “risk … priorities of the US farm policy, risk management and
conservation …
May 28, 2010
Energy
supply, use and
agricultural commodity prices for the 2010 through … projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and … inflation in 2010 through 2012. For
the last half of the …
May 28, 2010
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
supply, use and
agricultural commodity prices for the 2010 through … projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and … inflation in 2010 through 2012. For
the last half of the …
July 19, 2022
Recent Videos, Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
3,537Losses due to logistics disruption and lower prices for export‐oriented commodities $11.9 BILLIONItem Difference in farmgate … 2021/22MY to 2020/21MY
times
times
Egypt
Indonesia
Turkey
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
Others
UKRAINIAN WHEAT PRODUCTION AND EXPORT
Source: based on the data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine and Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
Loading of grain cargoes …
October 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
1)
where S is the nominal exchange rate, P is the U.S. price level and P* is the price level in the country of
interest, say Ghana. When the real exchange rate is appreciating, it means the U.S. price of the bundle
3
of goods in the basket is increasing relative to the Ghanaian price. Now, when the real exchange rates
appreciates, then the real value of the dollar has depreciated, suggesting a decline in its purchasing
power, relatively speaking.
To get to know how Q affects the poverty level, it is necessary to try to understand the factors that
influence changes in Q. The real exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries may
change when there is a change in the relative demand for U.S. goods as a result of preference shift,
leading to total expenditure on U.S. goods increasing. The shift may arise from two principal sources.
An increase in global private and public demand for U.S. goods is one source of such shifts. This shift is
exacerbated when the relative increase in demand for U.S. goods is much higher than the increase in
demand for Ghana goods. In an increasingly interconnected world, imports tend to account increasing
share of development countries’ consumption. Another source of the shift is an increase in U.S.
Government expenditure on U.S. goods, an event that increases during recessionary periods in attempts
to boost demand as an economic stimulant. When these events shift the demand for U.S. goods,
equilibrium can only be restored if the relative price of U.S. goods vis‐à‐vis Ghana goods rose. From
Equation (1), this implies a decline in Q, i.e., the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has increased
relative to the Ghana cedi. The corollary is true: that the purchasing power of the Ghana cedi has
declined and its purchasing power has fallen.
4
Figure 1: Purchasing Power Parities for UK and Euro Zone per US Dollar (2009‐2014)
Another source of change in the real exchange rate is a change in relative output supply in the U.S.
significantly exceeding that of Ghana. Output supply changes are a function of resource productivity‐
enhancing technologies, such as those for labor and capital. Tractors and other farm production
equipment are some of the visible productivity‐enhancing technologies that allow U.S. agriculture, for
example, to dwarf that of Ghana. One outcome of increasing productivity is increasing incomes and the
country with the highest relative productivity increase will also have the highest relative income
increase. Because the higher incomes often lead to increased consumption of imports, relative prices in
the U.S. need to fall to restore equilibrium. This fall in relative prices lead to an increase in Q and a fall
in the U.S. dollar in real terms. Conversely, Ghana’s relative productivity disadvantage suggests the
need for appreciation of the Ghana cedi in order to restore equilibrium, leading to an increase in
Ghana’s prices relative to those in the U.S., i.e., the Ghana cedi rises in real terms. The foregoing works
well if the goods and services in the basket of goods being compared between the two countries are all
traded. However, a fair proportion of goods in the basket of developing countries tend to be non‐
traded.
Purchasing Power Parity
0.765
0.770
0.775
0.780
0.785
0.790
0.795
0.800
0.63
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.7
0.71
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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e P
PP
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April 5, 2023
Recent Videos
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