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variable costs, on a per cow basis, for producers with cow-calf … operation size, on a per cow basis, compared to costs
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Figure A16 plots the …
March 13, 2017
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
related surveys on a four-
year basis. In 2016, the ALUSC conducted … statewide are on a crop share basis, and 29.8%
are fixed cash … leases was on a crop-share basis, compared to 55.7% in the …
September 16, 2019
KFMA Research
and is done on a regional basis so as to provide an understanding … is provided on a regional basis, with KFMA Associations 4 … management choices on a regional basis provides some insight into …
September 1, 2024
2024 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
taken down to the per acre basis for both irrigated and non-irrigated
estimates … approach method on a county basis for Kansas. A future companion … rental rates on a county basis in Kansas.
Income
To calculate …
September 26, 2025
International Grain Markets
measured on a time-charter basis, for dry bulk carriers carrying … Japan achieving $15,500
basis 1 year’s trading.
Ultramax/Supramax … heard to
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June 8, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
selling price; with a negative basis
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May 24, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
‐$5.00 /bu. or more. Projected U.S. average cash prices for “new crop” MY 2018/19 would
also likely rise – up to the range of $4.00‐$4.50 /bu (midpoint = $4.25). This compares to the current USDA
forecast of $3.30‐$4.30 (midpoint = $3.80 /bu) on 11.53% stocks/use for “new crop” MY 2018/19 – beginning
September 1, 2018.
2. CME Corn Futures & Kansas Cash Corn Prices & Basis Bids
Since the release of the USDA’s May 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, “old
crop” JULY 2018 CME corn futures prices have traded in a range of $3.94 ¼ to $4.09 per bushel before closing
at $4.08 ½ /bu on May 23rd (Figure 1). Over the same time period “new crop” DECEMBER 2018 CME corn
futures prices have traded in a range of $4.12 ¼ to $4.26 ¾ /bu before closing at $4.26 ½ on May 23rd. Prices
for both of these contracts are up $0.45 ¾ /bu or 12.8% from their lows on January 12th following the January
2018 USDA Annual Crop Production Summary, WASDE, and Grain Stocks reports, and the USDA Prospective
Plantings and Grain Stocks reports on March 29th.
In Western Kansas on Wednesday, May 23rd cash corn bids at major grain elevators ranged from $3.54
($0.55 under JULY 2018 futures) to $3.98 ($0.11 under), and ranged from $3.68 ½ ($0.40 under) to $3.913 ½
($0.17 under) in Central Kansas. These prices are much higher than when bids statewide had fallen to $2.66‐
$2.96 on December 23, 2016, and above marketing loan rates for corn across the state, with corn loans near
$2.05 in Central Kansas and $2.19 per bushel in Western Kansas.
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Cash corn price bids in East Central and Northeast Kansas at major terminal locations were $3.98 ½ ‐ $4.03
½ on May 23rd, up substantially from the range of $3.26‐$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016. Cash corn bids at
Kansas ethanol plants on May 23rd ranged from $3.91 ¾ ($0.13 under JULY) to $4.39 ¾ ($0.35 over JULY) –
continuing to indicate strength in ethanol demand for corn in Kansas and nationwide.
3. USDA U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand Projections for “Old Crop” MY 2017/18
In the May 10th USDA WASDE report the USDA projected “old crop” MY 2017/18 corn Total Supplies to be
unchanged from earlier WASDE reports at 16.947 bb (Table 1 and Figure 6). Total Use was projected to be the
highest on record at 14.765 bb – up from the past record of 14.649 bb a year earlier (Table 1, Figures 7 & 9).
Continued strength in U.S. gasoline demand resulting from a healthy U.S. economy has supported U.S.
ethanol demand – and spurred corn use in ethanol production (Figure 8a). In spite of a build‐up in U.S. ethanol
stocks and a moderation in ethanol prices, production has remained at or near record high levels (Figure 8b).
Exports of U.S. ethanol increased sharply in March 2018 to 14.3% of U.S. ethanol production – up from that
previous high of 13.2% in December 2011 (Figure 8c). Most U.S. ethanol exports in 2017 went to Brazil and
Canada, and this trend continues in 2018.
Exports of U.S. corn have increased in volume since early 2018 as the damage to corn crops in export
competitors Argentina and Brazil has emerged (Figure 10). Through May 17th – the 37th week of “old crop” MY
2017/18 – 1.404 bb of U.S. corn had been shipped. This amounts to 63.1% of the USDA’s projection of 2.225
bb in U.S. exports with 71.2% of the marketing year complete (i.e., 37/52 weeks). However, total shipments
and forward sales of U.S. corn in “old crop” MY 2017/18 through May 17th amounted to 2.105 bb, or 94.6% of
the USDA’s projection with 71.2% of MY 2017/18 complete – indicating a positive outlook for “old crop” U.S.
corn exports for the remainder of the marketing year through August 31st.
Non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) usage has continued to grow to a record high 1.465 bb in “old
crop” MY 2017/18. Feed and Residual use of U.S. corn in “old crop” MY 2017/18 increased to a 10 year high of
5.500 bb – following strong feed demand from year‐over‐year increases from year 2017 to 2018 in U.S. total
red meat and poultry production (Figures 7 & 9). Production and use of Distillers Dried Grains and Solubles
(DDGS) have been robust, with DDGS use for livestock feed and exports remaining strong (Figure 9).
As a result of these supply and use projections for “old crop” MY 2017/18, ending stocks are projected to
be 2.182 bb with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 14.78% – down from 2.293 bb (15.65% S/U) in MY 2016/17
(Table 1, Figures 11‐12). United States’ corn prices for “old crop” MY 2017/18 are projected in the range of
$3.25‐$3.55 (midpoint = $3.40 /bu).
4. USDA Supply‐Demand Projections for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
The USDA provided a forecast of U.S. corn supply, demand, and prices for “new crop” MY 2018/19 In the
May 10th USDA WASDE report. Based on 2018 U.S. corn production projections 88.026 million acres (ma)
planted, 80.690 ma harvested, and 2018 U.S. corn average yields of 174.0 bu/ac., the USDA forecast 2018 U.S.
corn production to be 14.040 bb – down from 14.604 bb in 2017 (2nd highest on record), and the record high of
15.148 bb in 2018 (Tables 1a‐b, Figures 4‐5).
Total Supplies of U.S. corn in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast to be 16.272 bb based on 2.182 bb in
beginning stocks, 14.040 bb in production, and 50 mb in imports. This is down from record highs of 16.942‐
16.947 bb in U.S. corn Total Supplies the last two marketing years (Tables 1a‐b, Figure 6).
Page | 3
Corn‐based ethanol production in the U.S. in “new crop” MY 2018/19 is forecast to be a new record high of
5.625 bb – to be driven by expected ongoing growth in U.S. gasoline demand (Table 1a‐b, Figures 7‐9). This
would be up 50 mb in U.S. corn use for ethanol than in “old crop” MY 2017/18.
Exports of U.S. corn in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast to decline 125 mb to 2.100 bb – likely on a
return to normal corn production on the part of export competitors Argentina and Brazil in 2019 (Figures 7‐9).
As of May 17th, a total of 98.6 mb of U.S. corn sales have been made for delivery in “new crop” MY 2018/19 –
beginning on September 1, 2018 – equal to 4.7% of the USDA projection of 2.100 bb for the marketing year.
Non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) usage is forecast to be up 35 mb to a record high 1.490 bb in
“new crop” MY 2018/19. Feed and Residual use of U.S. corn in “new crop” MY 2018/19 is forecast to be 5.375
bb – down from the 10 year high of 5.500 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/19 – following the impact of higher corn
prices on livestock feed usage (Figures 7 and 9). The USDA made a partially offsetting increase in its
projections of increased wheat feeding (up 50 mb) to offset this reduction. Increased availability of Distillers
Dried Grains and Solubles (DDGS) from increased ethanol production will also help offset this forecast direct
reduction in corn use for livestock feeding (Figure 9).
Total Use is projected to be the 3rd highest on record at 14.590 bb – down from the record highs of 14.649‐
14.765 bb the last two years (Table 1 and Figures 7 & 9).
As a result of these supply and use projections for “new crop” MY 2018/19, ending stocks are projected to
be 1.682 bb with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 11.53% – down from 2.182 bb (14.78% S/U) in “old crop” MY
2017/18 (Tables 1a‐b and Figures 11‐12). United States’ corn prices for “new crop” MY 2018/19 are projected
in the range of $3.30‐$4.30 (midpoint = $3.80 /bu) – up $0.40 /bu from the midpoint projection of $3.40 /bu in
“old crop” MY 2017/18. This scenario is given a 45% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural
Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios to the USDA’s forecast for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are
presented in what follows for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (Table 1b). These projections show how varying 2018
U.S. corn production and use scenarios could affect U.S. corn supply‐demand and price outcomes in “new
crop” MY 2018/19. Probability‐weights are added to reflect judgements about how likely each scenario is to
occur in “new crop” MY 2018/19, i.e., during the September 1, 2018 through August 31, 2019 time period.
A ‐ KSU “Higher 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 88.026 ma planted, 80.690 ma harvested, 176.6 bu/ac record yield (equal to
2017 record high), 14.277 bb production, 16.509 bb total supplies, 14.645 bb total use, 1.845 bb ending
stocks, 12.73% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “Lower 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (15% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 88.026 ma planted, 80.846 ma harvested, 164.4 bu/ac yield (equal to 2009
yield), 13.291 bb production, 15.523 bb total supplies, 14.204 bb total use, 1.319 bb ending stocks, 9.23%
S/U, & $4.50 /bu U.S. corn average price.
C ‐ KSU “Higher 2018 U.S. Corn Exports” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (15% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 88.026 ma planted, 80.846 ma harvested, 174.0 bu/ac yield (equal to USDA
forecast yield), 14.040 bb production, 16.272 bb total supplies, 2.400 bb exports (up 300 mb from USDA),
14.590 bb total use, 1.208 bb ending stocks, 8.44% S/U, & $5.25 /bu U.S. corn average price.
Page | 4
6. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,056.1 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2018/19, up
1.9% from 1,036.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but down 2.1% from the record high of 1,078.3 mmt in MY
2016/17 (Figures 13‐14a, Table 2). The “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year begins September 1, 2018 and
continues through August 31, 2019. Production in Argentina of 41.0 mmt in 2019 would be a “rebound” from
the short crop of 33.0 mmt projected in 2018. Similarly, production in Brazil of 96.0 mmt in 2019 would also
be a “rebound” from the short crop of 87.0 mmt projected in 2018. The 2018 corn harvests for Argentina and
Brazil occur in the later half of “old crop” MY 2017/18, i.e., February through August 2018.
World corn total supplies of 1,250.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast to be down moderately
from 1,264.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but up from the record high of 1,288.3 mmt in MY 2016/17.
World corn exports of a 158.0 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2018/19, up 4.6% from 151.1 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2017/18, but down 1% from the record high of 159.7 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Table 3).
Projected World corn ending stocks of 159.2 mmt (14.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are down 18.3%
from 194.85 mmt (18.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, 30.1% from the record high 227.5 mmt (21.4% S/U) in
MY 2016/17, and 210.0 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16 (Figure 13‐14a, Tables 8‐9). Projected Foreign (Non‐
U.S.) corn ending stocks of 116.4 mmt (13.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, is down 16.5% from 139.4 mmt
(16.5% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and is down from 169.3 mmt (20.0% S/U) in MY 2016/17.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market (Figures 14b‐c, Tables 7‐9). “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are
projected to be 98.65 mmt (11.7% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, down from 115.3 mmt (13.9% S/U) in “old
crop” MY 2017/18, and down from 126.8 mmt (15.3% S/U) in MY 2016/17. These figures show that World
stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence are projected to be approximately 20% lower (i.e., 11.7% S/U
for the “World‐Less‐China” versus 14.6% S/U for the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2018/19).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 44.3% in MY 2016/17, to 40.8% in “old crop” MY
2017/18, and now projected to be 38.0% in “new crop” MY 2018/19 (Tables 2‐9). The deliberate actions in
recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to reduce feedgrain stockpiles is impacting the relative
amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These actions may eventually increase Chinese import demand
for U.S. feedgrains if and when China has a severe short crop situation that they are not able to anticipate
ahead of time.
…
May 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
to occur in the U.S. in summer 2018, then in Fall 2018 NOV 2018
soybean futures would likely move higher to the range of $11.50‐$12.00 /bu. or more. Projected U.S. average
cash prices for “new crop” MY 2018/19 would also likely rise – up to the range of $11.00‐$11.50 /bu (midpoint
= $11.25). This compares to the current USDA forecast of $8.75‐$11.25 (midpoint = $10.00 /bu) on 9.39%
stocks/use for “new crop” MY 2018/19 – beginning September 1, 2018.
2. CME Soybean Futures & Kansas Cash Corn Prices & Basis Bids
Soybean futures have reflected the “disconcerting uncertainty” that these market factors have had on
market sentiments. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) JULY 2018 Soybean futures can be described as
“volatile” during the February 1st – March 30th period. After closing at $10.06 per bushel on February 1st, JULY
2018 Soybean futures moved to a high of $10.90 ¼ on March 2nd; to a low of $9.94 ½ on April 4th; to a high of
Page | 2
$10.78 on April 13th; to a low of $9.92 ½ on May 17th; to a high of $10.50 ¾ on May 24th; and finally down to a
close of $10.18 ½ on Thursday, May 31st.
Since the release of the USDA’s May 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, “old
crop” JULY 2018 CME Soybean futures prices have traded in a range of $9.98 ½ to $10.35 ¾ per bushel before
closing at $10.18 ½ /bu on May 31st (Figure 1). Over the same time period “new crop” NOVEMBER 2018 CME
Soybean futures prices have traded in a range of $10.02 to $10.42 ½ /bu before closing at $10.34 ¼ on May
31st. Prices for the JULY 2018 and NOV 2018 futures contracts are up $0.53 ¼ (up 5.5%) and $0.66 ¾ /bu (up
6.9%) from their lows on January 12th following the January 2018 USDA Annual Crop Production Summary,
WASDE, and Grain Stocks reports.
In Western Kansas on Wednesday, May 30th cash soybean bids at major grain elevators ranged from
$8.88 ($1.35 under JULY 2018 futures) to $9.23 ($1.00 under), and ranged from $9.29 ($0.94 under) to $9.43
($0.80 under) in Central Kansas. These prices are at least moderately higher than when bids in western and
central Kansas had fallen to $8.21‐$9.05 ½ ($1.40 to $0.55 /bu under MAR 2018 Soybean futures) on January
12, and greatly above marketing loan rates for soybeans across the state, with loan rates near $5.00 in Central
Kansas and $4.80 per bushel in Western Kansas.
Cash soybean price bids in East Central and Northeast Kansas at major terminal elevator locations were
$9.88 ‐ $9.93 ($0.35 to $0.30 under JULY) on May 30th, up substantially from the range of $9.00 ½ ‐ $9.05 ½ per
bushel ($0.60‐$0.55 under MAR 2018) on 1/12/2018. Cash soybean bids at Kansas soybean processing plants
in Emporia and Wichita on May 30th ranged from $9.86 ($0.37 under JULY) to $9.93 ($0.30 under).
3. South American Export Competition in “Old Crop” MY 2017/18
Soybean market signals from South American export competitors Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay have
been “mixed” so far in year 2018 (Figure 14). Serious drought has caused Argentina soybean production to
decline by 32.5% from a USDA estimate of 57.8 million metric tons (mmt) in 2017 down to 39.0 mmt in 2018,
and cut projected Argentine soybean exports by 40.3% to 4.2 mmt in the “old crop” 2017/18 marketing year
(MY) ending August 31st (Tables 2 & 3). Argentina soybean meal exports are projected to be 7.4% lower (29.0
mmt) in MY 2017/18, down from 31.3 mmt in MY 2016/17.
However, Brazilian soybean production is projected to be higher – offsetting Argentina’s declines to a
degree. Brazil is projected by the USDA to produce a record high 117.0 mmt of soybeans in year 2018, up 2.5%
from the previous record of 114.5 mmt in year 2017. Brazilian soybean exports are forecast to be 73.3 mmt in
MY 2017/18 (ending August 31st), up 16.1% from 63.1 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Tables 2 & 3). Brazil soybean meal
exports are projected to be 13.3% higher (15.6 mmt) in MY 2017/18, up from 13.8 mmt in MY 2016/17.
Paraguay soybean production is projected to be down marginally – providing a neutral influence to the
market. Paraguay is projected by the USDA to produce 10.2 mmt of soybeans in year 2018, up marginally from
10.0 mmt in year 2017. Paraguay soybean exports are forecast to be 6.25 mmt in MY 2017/18 (ending August
31st), up 2.0% from 6.13 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Tables 2 & 3).
These three South American countries are the main competition in global soybean export markets for the
United States. Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay are forecast to comprise 55.4% (83.75 mmt) of forecast World
soybean exports (151.3 mmt) in the “old crop” 2017/18 marketing year (MY). The U.S. is projected to make up
37.2% (56.2 mmt) of World soybean exports for MY 2017/18, with other countries making up the remaining
7.4% (11.3 mmt) (Table 3).
Page | 3
The trade dispute between the U.S. and China has “pushed” Chinese soybean export purchases toward
Brazil and away from the U.S. at least temporarily until the matter is either settled OR exportable South
American supplies are no longer available in fall 2018. There has been both negative and positive news coming
from these negotiations to date, with final agreements or lack there of still to come.
4. U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Projections for “Old Crop” MY 2017/18
In the May 10th USDA WASDE report the USDA projected “old crop” MY 2017/18 soybean Total Supplies to
be unchanged from earlier WASDE reports at 4.718 billion bushels (bb) (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Continued strength in U.S. soybean crush resulting from demand for soybean meal for domestic and
foreign livestock feeding has supported domestic U.S. soybean demand (Table 1, Figures 7 & 9ab). Projected
exports of U.S. soybean meal of 12.700 million short tons (mst) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 ending on
September 30th are up from 11.601 mst last year – trailing only 13.107 mst in MY 2014/15. Strong U.S.
soybean meal exports in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are a direct result of shortfalls in Argentina soybean
production and soybean meal exports due to drought conditions in early 2018.
The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report monthly projections of U.S.
soybeans exports for “old crop” MY 2017/18 have declined by nearly 100 mb since January 2018 – down to a
projection of 2.065 bb (Table 1, Figures 7 & 9ab). This forecast of 2.065 bb for the current marketing year
ending on August 31st is still the 2nd highest on record, but down from the record high of 2.174 bb a year
earlier. This moderate reduction in U.S. soybean export prospects in recent months is due to a combination of
larger Brazilian soybean production, and trade tensions between the U.S. and China pushing business to Brazil.
Through May 17th – the 37th week of “old crop” MY 2017/18 – 1.670 bb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped
from U.S. ports for exports (Figure 8). This amounts to 80.9% of the USDA’s projection of 2.065 bb in U.S.
exports with 71.2% of the marketing year complete (i.e., 37/52 weeks). However, total shipments and forward
sales of U.S. soybeans in “old crop” MY 2017/18 through May 17th amounted to 2.028 bb, or 98.2% of the
USDA’s projection with 71.2% of MY 2017/18 complete – indicating a positive outlook for “old crop” U.S.
soybean exports for the remainder of the marketing year through August 31st.
Seed usage of U.S. soybeans is projected to be 103 million bushels (mb) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, with
Residual use forecast at 32 mb – both down marginally from MY 2016/17. Total Use was projected to be a
record high of 4.188 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 – down moderately from the past record of 4.213 bb in MY
2016/17 (Table 1, Figures 7 & 9ab).
As a result of these supply and use projections for “old crop” MY 2017/18, ending stocks are projected to
be the 2nd highest on record at 530 mb with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 12.66% – both up from 415 mb
(7.17% S/U) in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figures 9ab & 10‐11). The record high U.S. soybean ending stocks
amount occurred in MY 2006/07, with 574 mb ending stocks and 18.62% ending stocks‐to‐use.
United States’ soybean prices for “old crop” MY 2017/18 are projected to average $9.35 /bu – down from
$9.47 in MY 2016/17, and comparable to $8.95 /bu in MY 2015/16 (Table 1, Figures 10‐11).
5. U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Projections for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
The USDA provided a forecast of U.S. soybean supply, demand, and prices for “new crop” MY 2018/19 In
the May 10th USDA WASDE report. Based on 2018 U.S. soybean production projections 88.982 million acres
Page | 4
(ma) planted, 88.247 ma harvested, and 2018 U.S. soybean average yields of 48.5 bu/ac., the USDA forecast
2018 U.S. soybean production to be 4.280 bb. This 2018 forecast of 4.280 bb would be down from the record
high of 4.392 bb in 2017, and the 2nd highest amount of 4.296 bb in 2016 (Tables 1a‐b, Figures 4‐5‐6).
Total Supplies of U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast to be a record high 4.835 bb based
on 530 mb in beginning stocks, 4.280 bb in production, and 25 mb in imports. This amount is up from the
previous record highs of 4.718 bb and 4.515 bb in U.S. soybean Total Supplies in “old crop” MY 2017/18 and
MY 2016/17, respectively (Tables 1a‐b, Figure 6).
Soybean crush in “new crop” MY 2018/19 is forecast to be a new record high of 1.995 bb – to be driven by
expected ongoing domestic usage for livestock feed as well as moderately lower soybean meal exports (Table
1a‐b, Figures 7 & 9ab). This would be up 5 mb in U.S. soybean crush from “old crop” MY 2017/18.
Exports of U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast to increase 225 mb to 2.290 bb – likely on
short supplies on the part of export competitor Argentina in early 2019 (Figures 7‐9). As of May 17th, a total of
204.2 mb of U.S. soybean sales have been made for delivery in “new crop” MY 2018/19 – beginning on
September 1, 2018 – equal to 8.9% of the USDA projection of 2.290 bb for the marketing year.
Seed usage of U.S. soybeans is projected to be 103 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, with
Residual use forecast at 30 mb – both essentially unchanged from “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Table 1a‐b, Figures
9ab).
Total Use is projected to be a record high of 4.420 bb – up from the previous record highs of 4.188‐4.213
bb the last two years (Table 1a‐b, Figure 9b).
As a result of these supply and use projections for “new crop” MY 2018/19, ending stocks are projected to
be 415 mb with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 9.39% – both down from 530 mb (12.66% S/U) in “old crop”
MY 2017/18 (Tables 1a‐b, Figures 9ab & 10‐11). United States’ soybean prices for “new crop” MY 2018/19 are
projected in the range of $8.75‐$11.25 (midpoint = $10.00 /bu) – up $0.65 /bu from the midpoint projection of
$9.35 /bu in “old crop” MY 2017/18. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension
Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
6. Alternative KSU Soybean Forecast Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios to the USDA’s forecast for U.S. soybean supply‐demand and prices are
presented for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (Table 1b, Figure 10). These projections show how varying 2018 U.S.
soybean production and use scenarios could affect U.S. soybean supply‐demand and price outcomes in “new
crop” MY 2018/19. Probability‐weights are added to reflect judgements about how likely each scenario is to
occur in “new crop” MY 2018/19, i.e., during the September 1, 2018 through August 31, 2019 time period.
A ‐ KSU “Lower 2018 U.S. Soybean Exports” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (15% probability):
Assumptions: 88.982 ma planted, 88.053 ma harvested, 48.5 bu/ac yield, 4.271 bb production, 4.826 bb
total supplies, 1.995 bb domestic crush, 2.065 bb exports (equal to MY 2017/18 and less than USDA’s
forecast), 4.197 bb total use, 629 mb ending stocks, 14.99% S/U, & $8.50 /bu U.S. soybean average price;
B ‐ KSU “Large 2018 U.S. Soybean Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (15% probability):
Assumptions: 88.982 ma planted, 88.053 ma harvested, 52.0 bu/ac yield (equal to record high in year
2016), 4.579 bb production, 5.134 bb total supplies, 2.000 bb domestic crush, 2.300 bb exports, 4.435 bb
total use, 699 mb ending stocks, 15.76% S/U, & $8.25 /bu U.S. soybean average price;
Page | 5
C ‐ KSU “Small 2018 U.S. Soybean Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (20% probability):
Assumptions are: 88.982 ma planted, 88.053 ma harvested, 42.0 bu/ac yield (near recent lows of 40‐44 bu
/ac in years 2011‐2013), 3.698 bb production, 4.253 bb total supplies, 1.950 bb domestic crush, 2.000 bb
exports, 4.085 bb total use, 168 mb ending stocks, 4.11% S/U, & $12.50 /bu U.S. soybean average price;
7. World Soybean Supply‐Demand Prospects
World soybean production of a record high 354.5 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY
2018/19, up 5.3% from 336.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up 1.2% from the current record high of
350.3 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13, Table 2). The “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year begins September 1,
2018 and continues through August 31, 2019. World soybean total supplies of 446.7 mmt in “new crop” MY
2018/19 are forecast to be up 3.1% from 433.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up 4.2% from 428.7 mmt in
MY 2016/17.
World soybean exports of a 161.8 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2018/19, up 7.0% from 151.3
mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up 9.7% from 147.5 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Table 3). China would be the key
World soybean importer in the coming marketing year, and show little sign of abating yet in their annual
soybean import increases (Table 4, Figure 15).
Projected World soybean ending stocks of 86.7 mmt (24.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are down
5.9% from 92.2 mmt (26.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, 11.1% from the record high 96.4 mmt (29.3% S/U)
in MY 2016/17, and 78.4 mmt (25.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16 (Figures 13 & 16, Tables 8‐9).
Projected Foreign (Non‐U.S.) soybean ending stocks of 75.4 mmt (18.9% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, is
down 3.0% from 77.7 mmt (20.5% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and is down from 88.2 mmt (24.4% S/U) in
MY 2016/17 (Tables 8‐9).
Figure 1. JULY 2018 & NOVEMBER 2018 CME Daily Soybean Futures Price Charts
ne …
August 21, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
revenue?
2. It assumes a zero basis on price.
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October 1, 2011
Land Buying and Valuing
are reported on an annual basis and timely enough for this …