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September 18, 2024
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October 1, 2024
2024 Kansas Crop Insurance Presentations
judged on a case-by-case basis depending on the requested … provides protection against a decline in revenue (yield and/or price) on the milk produced from dairy cows on a quarterly basis.
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August 7, 2025
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August 18, 2025
Ag Law Issues
figure and uses it as the basis for eligibility, regardless …
June 5, 2015
Swine
see if statement) to $/lb basis for easier sumproduct process …
February 1, 2008
Water Policy
provided the theoretical basis for
evaluating the competitive … allocation of water on an annual
basis. While a producer may realize … are simulated on a yearly basis without regard for the future …
August 31, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
May 15, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
MAY 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Dec. 16, 2013 – May 14, 2014
Close = $4.95 ½ on 3/14/2014
DEC 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Dec. 16, 2013 – May 14, 2014
Close = $4.89 on 3/14/2014
Page | 3
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 91.691 million acres (ma), down from 95.365 ma in 2013,
97.155 ma in 2012, and 91.936 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). In addition, the USDA projected 2014
U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 84.3 ma, down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, but up from
81.446 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.9%,
equal to 2013, but up from 89.9% in 2012 and 91.4% in 2011. The U.S. average and median (i.e., the 50th
percentile or “middle”) corn percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage over the years of 2000‐2013 has been
91.0% and 91.2% , with a high of 92.4% in 2010 and a low of 87.9% in 2002. Using the 2000‐2013 average
percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage proportion of 0.91 would lead to a projection of U.S. 2014 harvested
acres of 83.439 million acres – approximately 860,200 acres less than the USDA’s projection of 84.3 million
acres harvested.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 165.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, up
from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 yield of 123.4 bu/ac., and the historic high of 164.7 bu/ac
in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3). Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014
U.S. corn production to be a record high 13.935 billion bushels (bb) – which is up from 13.925 bb in 2013,
10.780 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009and (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are 15.111 bb – resulting
from beginning stocks of 1.145 bb, projected 2014 production of 13.935 bb, and projected imports of 30 mb
(Table 1). Total supplies of 15.111 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, comparable to
14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY
2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.932 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.781 bb in “current year” MY
2013/14. Beginning stocks of 1.146 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up sharply from 821 mb in “current
year” MY 2013/14, and is comparable to the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.050 bb in
“new crop” MY 2014/15 is equal to 5.050 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14 (up 50 mb from a month ago),
while being up from 4.648 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. Figure 5 shows weekly U.S.
oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration
(www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University. Assuming 2.75
gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected
annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current” MY 2013/14 has ranged from 4.638‐5.262
bb on a weekly basis since early September 201 …
June 2, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. May 10th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports
On May 10th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its May 2016 Crop
Production report – containing U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage, yield and production forecasts for 2016 –
with information specific to the 2016 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat, soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and
white winter (WW) wheat crops.
The NASS 2016 U.S. winter wheat production forecast was derived by USDA using a combination of a) an
objective yield survey, and b) a farmer operator survey – both conducted during the April 25 – May 5 period.
The objective yield survey was conducted in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas – states in which winter wheat is
normally mature enough in late April – early May to make meaningful counts. Projected biological yields were
calculated from farmer plots – assessing number of wheat stalks, heads in late boot stage, and the number of
emerged heads to develop a count of the number of heads that would be harvested. These same plots will be
revisited again in late May – early June to monitor wheat development and update the USDA’s yield
projections on a plot‐by‐plot basis.
The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 11,700 wheat producers representing all
major U.S. wheat producing areas. Producers were contacted by a combination of mail correspondence,
internet and personal interviews, and were asked about likely winter wheat harvested acreage and yields on
their farms in 2016. These same producers will be contacted with follow‐up surveys later in the growing
season to assess their updated perceptions at that time of 2016 wheat production prospects on their farms.
On May 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) also released its May 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, “old” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years. The
“old” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2015 and lasted through 5/31/2016, with “new
crop” MY 2016/17 beginning 6/1/2016 and continuing through 5/31/2017.
I‐B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat JULY & DECEMBER 2016 Futures
Since a low of $4.52 ¾ on April 11, 2016, JULY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Kansas
hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.09 ¼ on April 21st. After falling to lows
of $4.41 ¼ on May 11th and 12th, JULY 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures have traded in a range of a
low of $4.43 ¾ on May 24th to a high of $4.64 ¼ on May 26th before closing at $4.56 on June 1st
(Figure 1).
Similarly, since a low of $4.88 on April 11, 2016, DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas hard red winter
wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.45 on April 21st. After falling to a low of $4.83 ½ on
May 11th, DECEMBER 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures have traded in a range of a low of $4.83 ¾ on
May 24th to a high of $5.02 ¾ on May 26th before closing at $4.95 ½ on June 1st (Figure 1).
Page | 4
Figure 1. JULY 2016 & DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …