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August 1, 2019
Breakout Sessions
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/arcplc_program)
Commodity PLC ARC‐CO ARC‐ICBARLEY … Reserved8/21/2019
Payment Rates for MFP2
Commodity Units MFP1 Payment Rate ($/unit … Bill Titles
• Title I: Commodities• Title II: Conservation• …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
December 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for
wheat. “Current Crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2016 and will last through 5/31/2017. The
USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its December Crop Production report on
the same day. However, the December NASS Crop Production report was not survey‐based, but instead
carried forward information from the most recent November 9, 2016 report.
Earlier, on December 1st, the USDA released the initial, preliminary tables of their Long Term Agricultural
Projections to 2026 (https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/) – with the complete report including descriptive
text and additional analysis to be released later at the 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia
on February 23‐24, 2017 (https://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/). As part of these Long Term Agricultural Projections the
USDA provides an initial set of supply‐demand and price forecasts for U.S. wheat and other crops for upcoming
MY 2017/18 and succeeding years.
On January 12, 2017 the USDA will release a number of key reports that have potential to significantly
impact U.S. and World grain market supply‐demand balances and prices. On that date, the January 2017 NASS
Crop Production report, 2016 Annual Crop Production Summary report (NASS), the quarterly Grain Stocks
report (NASS) for December 1, 2016, the Winter Wheat & Canola Seedings report (NASS), and the January
2017 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE‐WAOB) report will all be released.
The upcoming January 12, 2017 USDA NASS Crop Production report will be survey based, and has the
potential to cause sizable changes USDA estimates of 2016 U.S. crop production. Information from the January
2017 Crop Production report will match that in the 2016 Annual Crop Production Summary report, while the
results of the quarterly Grain Stocks report will be used for calculations pertaining to the January 2017
WASDE report.
CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat MARCH 2017 & JULY 2017 Futures
Following lows of $5.00 per bushel on May 12th and May 24th, 2016, MARCH 2017 CME Kansas
hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.51 ¾ on June 8th. From that June 8th
high by July 5th MARCH 2017 futures prices fell $1.10 ¼ per bushel to a low of $4.41 ½. MARCH 2017
CME KS HRW Wheat futures then traded in a sideways range during the July 6th through August 26th
period – ranging from a high of $4.74 (on 7/13/2016) to a low of $4.42 ¾ (on 7/22/2016) – before
breaking out of this sideways trading range on August 29th and falling to successive lows of $4.11 ½
per bushel on August 31st, $4.14 ½ on October 13th, and $3.99 ½ on December 7th. MARCH 2017 CME
KS HRW Wheat futures closed at $4.09 ½ on Wednesday, December 28th (Figure 1).
JULY 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded down to a low of $5.16 ½ per
bushel on May 11, 2016, and then trended higher up to $5.69 ¾ on June 8th. From that June 8th high,
prices fell $1.08 per bushel to a low of $4.61 ¾ on July 5th. Then JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat
Page | 4
futures traded in a sideways range during the July 6th to the August 25th period – from a high of $4.94
(on 7/13/2016) to a low of $4.64 (on 7/22/2016) – before breaking out of this range on August 26th
and falling to a low of $4.32 on August 31st. Since then, JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat futures first
traded as high as $4.61 ¼ on September 23rd, then down to a low of $4.35 on October 12th, before
trending back higher to $4.67 ½ per bushel on October 20th before falling to a low of $4.23 ½ on
December 7th and eventually closing at $4.32 on December 28, 2016 (Figure 1).
Figure 1. MARCH 2017 & JULY 2017 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Daily Price Charts …
October 15, 2018
2018 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
for 99% of spending
Commodities
Crop Insurance
Conservation
… USDA purchases of surplus commodities (lost exports) for food … Agriculture
MFP payments
Commodity Initial Payment Rate Est …
March 7, 2022
Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
Supply shortages occurred
• Monetary policy eased
• US dollar depreciated in value
• … Energy and food prices increased
Since 2020, U.S. inflation has been rising, but is it transitory?
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price IndexPercent change from previous year
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan‐
71
Jan‐
73
Jan‐
75
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77
Jan‐
79
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81
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83
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87
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Jan‐
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Jan‐
01
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Jan‐
05
Jan‐
07
Jan‐
09
Jan‐
11
Jan‐
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Jan‐
15
Jan‐
17
Jan‐
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Jan‐
21
PCE Price Index (Headline)
PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (Core)
Higher inflation is noted in energy and durable goods
More subdued inflation in food / beverages, but commodity prices are rising…how could the Ukraine and Russian conflict impact these measures?
What about demand for U.S. dollars and U.S. exchange rates?
• …
April 26, 2018
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
last survey was conducted in 2012. Previous surveys had focused … irrigated
farmland, and for the 2012 survey, that information … percentages were 63.5% and 23.0% in 2012. In
2008, those percentages …
November 12, 2015
2015 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
Expenses
$9,539
$8,641
$9,227
$7,896
$1,662
($1,319)
$631
$1,031
($2,000)
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
$
M
i
l
l
i
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n
Years … Gain/Loss. For example in 2012 premium $8.640 billion – … 1,363,596,159 631,381,356 732,214,803
2012 8,640,864,294 9,001,226,587 …
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
sheep, beef, and lamb. In 2012, coverage of pork
transactions … long-term
investments and policy.
Since enactment of … importance of export markets; and policy that all impact LMR design …
October 15, 2018
2018 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
on market risk, government commodity programs, crop insurance … crop insurance and public policy. He has authored several … Changed from an Unpopular Policy to the Farmer Preferred …
October 19, 2020
Financial Management, Family Living Expenses - Articles
incomes decline due to low commodity
prices, paying higher health … more individuals on their policy … To give some context to policies being implemented in these …
November 14, 2013
Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-30
10/31/13Livestock … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-31
10/31/13
Livestock … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-32
10/31/13
Livestock …