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July 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
The elevated value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index since mid‐2014 has been a significant negative
factor in export markets for U.S. wheat in particular as well as other U.S. grains. A higher U.S. dollar exchange
rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to
exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain
exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars in U.S. grain markets).
U.S. Wheat Production Acreage, Yield & Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the June 30, 2017 Acreage report, the USDA projected that 2017 U.S. total wheat planted acres would
46.567 million acres (ma). This amount of U.S. wheat planted acres would be down 4.497 ma (‐9.0%) from
50.154 million acres (ma) in 2016, down 9.342 ma (‐17.0%) from 54.999 ma in 2015, down 19.7% from 56.841
ma in 2014, and down 18.8% from 56.236 ma in 2013 (Table 1 and Figures 4 & 5). Kansas State University
projections for All U.S. Wheat Planted Acres in 2017 equal those of the USDA.
U.S. Winter Wheat Planted Acres in 2017: In its June 30, 2017 Acreage report the USDA NASS
estimated U.S. winter wheat planted acres for harvest in 2017 to be 32.839 ma (Table 1 and Figures 4 & 5).
Winter wheat seedings of 32.839 ma in 2017 (seeded in fall 2016 for harvest in 2017) were down 3.390 ma (‐
9.4%) to 36.137 ma in 2016, down 6.934 ma (‐17.5%) from 39.681 ma in 2015, down 9.662 ma (‐22.8%) from
42.409 ma in 2014, and down 10.483 ma (‐24.25%) from 43.230 ma in 2013.
With low winter wheat prices (i.e., below USDA marketing loan rates throughout the state of Kansas during
the fall seeding period in September‐October 2016), associated low profitability prospects, and intensive
localized infestations of debilitating diseases such as wheat streak mosaic, it was thought that the proportion
of harvested‐to‐planted acres for winter wheat in 2017 would be lower than normal historically. In particular,
it seemed likely that in the U.S. central and southern Great Plains regions a larger than normal proportion of
hard red winter wheat acres would be “grazed out” by cattle or planted to other crops in spring 2017.
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Monthly Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (1973=100) (No Seas. Adj …
December 27, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Since 1992 there have been negative correlations of ‐0.777 and ‐0.795 between the U.S. Trade Weighted
dollar index and the Texas Gulf HRW Wheat and Kansas City, Missouri Wheat cash prices for Ordinary protein
levels, respectively. This indicates that cash prices of U.S. wheat – denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars –
have a strong negative or inverse relationship with the value of the U.S. dollar over this time‐period.
U.S. Wheat Production Acreage, Yield & Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the December 12th Crop Production report, the USDA projected 2017 U.S. wheat planted acreage to be
46.012 million acres (ma) – down 4.107 ma (‐8.2%) from 50.119 million acres (ma) in 2016, down 8.987 ma (‐
16.3%) from 54.999 ma in 2015, and down 19.05% from 56.841 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figures 3 & 4). KSU
projections for All U.S. Wheat Planted Acres in 2017 equal those of the USDA.
U.S. Winter Wheat Planted Acres in 2017: The December 12th USDA Crop Production report
estimated U.S. winter wheat planted acres for harvest in 2017 to be 32.839 ma (Table 1 and Figures 3 & 4).
Winter wheat seedings of 32.696 ma in 2017 (seeded in fall 2016 for harvest in 2017) were down 3.456 ma (‐
9.6%) to 36.152 ma in 2016, down 6.985 ma (‐17.6%) from 39.681 ma in 2015, down 9.713 ma (‐22.9%) from
42.409 ma in 2014, and down 10.534 ma (‐24.4%) from 43.230 ma in 2013.
With continued low winter wheat prices in Kansas, associated low profitability prospects, and intensive
localized infestations in 2017 of debilitating diseases such as wheat streak mosaic in some parts of the state, it
is likely that seeded acreage of Kansas hard red winter wheat will trend lower in 2018. Hard red winter (HRW)
wheat in Kansas is typically seeded in during the mid‐September through October time‐period. The initial
survey estimates of U.S. and Kansas winter wheat seeded acres will be given in the USDA Winter Wheat and
Canola Seedings report to be released on January 12, 2018.
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Date (Month/Day/Year)
U.S. Dollar Index (Trade Wtd …
August 15, 2016
Breakout session presentations
2016 Risk andProfit Conference
Breakout Session … Through KFMA he provides profitability analysis as well as income … “Boom” times: increased profit margins and cash flows can encourage growth of farm operation and expanded borrowing• …
November 27, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
medication while Chen and Chen (2010) explicitly use a system … term create negative sales risk, which Srinivasan and Mason … the reformulation.
The risk of density function misspecification …
Summary Book - All Counties
23
2020 Crop Profit Centers … a measure of the economic profitability of the farm including opportunity … Charges) / VFP
Operating Profit Ratio (Line 60)
Provides …
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
director of
the Center for Risk
Management Education and … research in
livestock market risk
management, meat demand … University from May 2006
to March 2010 and then
joined the Kansas …
September 30, 2016
Wind Energy Leases
by a grant from the USDA Risk Management Agency through … Agency through the
Southern Risk Management Education Center … Councils. These are
non-profit organizations that operate …
September 1, 2011
Animal ID & Traceability
systems, the
United States risks becoming less competitive … becoming less competitive and risks losing market access. This … 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Canada 105,895 238,556 …
Breakout Sessions
2014 Risk andProfit Conference
Breakout Session … livestock markets and price risk management strategies. He … impacts and price-income risk management strategies, b …
acquired after September 27, 2010, and held for more than five … 10 percent on all foreign profits currently deferred.
Eliminates … can put the plan itself at risk.• To solve the problem …