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May 22, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
March 21, 2016 – May 19, 2017
Close = $4.80 ¼ on 5/19/2017
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
March 21, 2016 – May 19, 2017
Close = $4.38 on 5/19/2017
Page | 4
DECEMBER (DEC) 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures traded as high as $5.90 ¼ on
April 20, 2016, and $5.90 on June 8, 2016. Then DEC 2017 HRW wheat futures declined to lows of
$4.74 per bushel on August 31st, $4.72 ½ on October 12th, and $4.59 ½ on December 1, 2016. DEC
2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures then traded up to a high of $5.30 ¾ on February 16,
2017. From that February 16th high, DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat futures then traded lower –
down to a low of $4.67 on April 25th before rising to $5.09 on May 2nd before closing at $4.80 ¼ on
Friday, May 19th (Figure 1).
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between JULY 2017 and DEC 2017 CME Kansas Wheat
futures contracts on Friday, May 19th was $0.42 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $4.80 ¼ for DEC 2017 less $4.38 for JULY
2017 Wheat), or $0.07042 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or additional handling costs or
other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from JULY 2017 to DEC 2017 would at
least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.07042 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo storage
cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken further over the May‐July
2017 period. Along this same lines of reasoning, it may be profitable to actually place a stor …
March 26, 2013
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