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December 13, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
S. Corn Market Prospects in Mid‐December 2018
The December 11th USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) estimates report provided
only minor changes in the aggregate narrative consensus view of the U.S. corn market about price prospects.
The U.S. corn market appears to be functioning with a group view that there will be large, abundantly available
supplies of U.S. corn through at least mid‐summer 2019 – and that these sizable supplies will continue to be a
limiting factor for any upward movement in U.S. corn prices.
The current corn market consensus rests on the following negative, neutral, and positive corn market
factors in the post‐harvest 2018 period.
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November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Total U.S. Corn Supplies in “new crop” MY 2018/19: In addition, the USDA projects total supplies of
U.S. corn in the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) starting 9/1/2018 to be 16.816 bb –
maintaining downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. Total supplies of U.S. corn in MY 2016/17 were a
record high of 16.942 bb, and were only marginally lower at 16.934 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 which
ended on August 31, 2018 (Table 1 & Figure 7).
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May 30, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
The U.S. Corn Market Situation in Spring 2019
The serious and prolonged spring planting season problems during April‐May 2019 for U.S. corn
producers are leading to a sharp reduction in 2019 U.S. corn production prospects. The likelihood of
a U.S. corn production shortfall in year 2019 is bring about a classic “short crop” marketing year for
U.S. corn markets in “new crop” MY 2019/20. The last major “short crop” for U.S. corn production
occurred seven (7) years ago in year 2012 due to excessive summer heat.
Concerns about delayed plantings or even the potential inability to plant corn or other crops this
year have driven corn futures sharply higher in recent weeks. “Old crop” JULY 2019 Corn futures
prices have increased from a low of $3.43 /bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.38 on May 29th before
closing at $4.18 ¾ that same day. Similarly, “new crop” DEC 2019 Corn futures prices have increased
from a low of $3.63 ¾ /bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.54 on May 29th before closing at $4.35 ¾
that same day (Figures 1a‐b‐c, & 2a‐b). With this rally in corn futures, managed money (specs) who
had been holding record short or bearish positions have begun to buy back their short futures
positions and instead build up the long or buy side of trade portfolios (Figures 3a‐b‐c‐d).
The U.S. government is also planning to provide a second round of Market Facilitation Payments
(MFPs) to U.S. crop producers, with the stipulation that crops have to be actually planted in year
2019 to collect these MFP funds. The longer into June 2019 these U.S. corn planting delays go, the
more difficult it may be for U.S. corn producers to keep with their original plans to plant corn this
year, and not switch to other shorter season cropping options such as soybeans and grain sorghum.
It is an oversimplification to say that the direction of the U.S. corn market for the remainder of
“current” MY 2018/19 (ending August 31st) and the start of “new crop” MY 2019/20 (starting
September 1st) will depend largely on the amount of U.S. corn acres planted over the coming few
weeks through June 2019. During that period U.S. farmers will likely be “under duress” as they make
what may be difficult late season planting decisions.
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February 13, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
Introduction – An Overview of the U.S. Corn Market & USDA Reports
Corn Market Over … 6/17 marketing year (MY). Market projections from the USDA are for this
“tighteni … …
October 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Negative U.S. Corn Market Factors
U.S. Corn Production in 2018: The most important negative market factor is the projected size of the 2018 U.S.
corn crop at 14.778 billion bushels (bb) – forecast to be the second highest on record behind 15.148 bb in
2016, but up from 14.601 bb in 2017 (Table 1 & Figures 5‐7).
Total U.S. Corn Supplies in “new crop” MY 2018/19: In addition, the USDA projects total supplies of U.S. corn
in the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) starting 9/1/2018 to be a record high 16.968 bb –
maintaining downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. Total supplies of U.S. corn in MY 2016/17 were a
previous record high of 16.942 bb, and were only marginally lower at 16.934 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18
which ended on August 31, 2018 (Table 1 & Figure 7).
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January 13, 2017
Grain Marketing Presentations
landlords/tenants. • Need good data/records for making these … http://www.ksre.k-state.edu/kams or 800.321.3276• USDA FSA: Guaranteed loans
Farm … Deviation Maps: AgManager.info
USDA Reports• …
June 24, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
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“new crop” 2019/20 marketing year.
1) USDA Forecast – 13.680 billi … …
December 24, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
only moderate changes in USDA supply-demand balance projections … from corn and especially soybean markets in late 2020.
From … changes have occurred in USDA U.S. wheat supply-demand …
August 1, 2021
General Sessions, Grain Marketing Presentations
Grain Sorghum
• Corn
• Soybeans
Most Recent Grain Market … ministry pauses grain harvesting data – Reuters, 8/18/2021
Record … Production 2021 - August USDA Crop Production
o Yield …
2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Grain Sorghum
• Corn
• Soybeans
Most Recent Grain Market … ministry pauses grain harvesting data – Reuters, 8/18/2021
Record … Production 2021 - August USDA Crop Production
o Yield …