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November 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
cy values and adequate non‐exporter supplies, and have
limited further rises in U.S. wheat prices.
Seeding of U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat has occurred in fall 2018 – with preliminary USDA estimates
that U.S. whe … bushel higher, up to $5.20 per bushels.
B. Wheat Futures & Cash Market Trends Following the November 9th USDA Reports
Since the …
March 30, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
en
taken by China against U.S. soybean imports, such tensions have to a degree already affected U.S. soybean
trade by “pressuring” Chinese buyers to redirect their buying focus toward Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and
wherever else globally they can secure soybean and oilseed products.
B. Soybean Market Response to the March 8th & 29th USDA Reports
Since the …
December 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
supplies and supply‐demand balances. Due to both stronger U.S. currency values and
adequate World wheat non‐exporter supplies, rises in U.S. wheat prices have been limited (Figures 4 & 13).
B. World Wheat Supply‐Demand – “Near‐Record World Supplies & Ending Stocks”
The USDA projects that the recent “large supply – large use” situation that has persisted for the World
wheat market since the last “supply‐demand” period in MY 2012/13 will continue (Figure 13). Viewed in
aggregate these World supply and use numbers do NOT bring light to periodic shortages of high protein wheat
that are problematic in World markets. Declining stocks of food quality wheat in major wheat exporting
countries in the last 1‐2 years may also be somewhat hidden. For example, there are regular, annual concerns
from the Black Sea Region about the amount of food versus feed quality wheat available for export on World
markets this year. They also do not account for the sizable wheat stocks held by China that are isolated from
the World wheat market and which tend to distort the supply‐demand picture presented by aggregate World
market measures (Figures 15a‐b).
World wheat production in “current” MY 2018/19 is projected to be 733.41 million metric tons (mmt)
which would be the fourth highest amount on record. This amount would be down 3.9% from the record high
763.06 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and down 3.1% from 756.51 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13). Total
production of World wheat has increased annually on average from 612.23 mmt in MY 2007/08 to present
levels at a rate of +11.0 mmt (+2.1% annually). The “current” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) which began on
June 1, 2018 and will last through May 31, 2019.
World wheat total supplies in “current” MY 2018/19 are projected to be a near record 1,013.35 mmt –
down 1.05% from 1,024.10 mmt in “old crop” 2017/18, but up from 1,000.90 mmt in MY 2016/17.
World wheat exports are forecast to be 177.36 mmt in the “current” 2018/19 marketing year – down from
a 181.23 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and the record high of 183.35 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13).
World wheat exporting countries and regions are presented in order of size (i.e., largest to smallest):
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1 …
September 27, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
nd Extension
September 27, 2016
Summary
Since the USDA released its World Agricu … ral Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on September
12t … cord high U.S. soybean export trade prospects in “new crop” MY 2016
(starting 9/1/2016).
Longer term, from MY 2008/09 to projected “new crop” MY 2016/17, the USDA forecasts a strong upward …
May 3, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Research and Extension
May 3, 2016
Summary
Since the USDA released its World Agricu … ral Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on April 12th, … ng
year depend largely on the planting and growing conditions for the U.S. 2016 feedgrain crops along with the
ongoing strength of U.S. grain sorghum usage. To date in its preseason projections the USDA has assumed that
there …
July 18, 2012
Energy
Market May Slow Growth in Corn Demand .............................................................viii
Livestock … 2
Biofuel Mandates Affect Corn Price Volatility … 3
Corn is Used for Feed, Food and …
July 18, 2012
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
Market May Slow Growth in Corn Demand .............................................................viii
Livestock … 2
Biofuel Mandates Affect Corn Price Volatility … 3
Corn is Used for Feed, Food and …
June 24, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
arch and Extension
June 24, 2016
Summary
Since the USDA released its World Agricu … ral Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on June 10th,
s … …
March 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
on March 29, 2016
Summary
Chinese Government Announcement Re: Corn Stockpile Management Polic … nment announced that “…it plans to scrap its corn stockpiling
scheme and a … line with international markets, Chinese demand for imports of corn
and …
December 29, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
7
Summary
A. Soybean Market Response to the December 12th USDA Reports
Since the USDA released its World Agricu … … Kansas cash soybean basis levels are $0.10 to $0.20 /bu weaker than the last three years.
B. Key World Soybean Supply‐Demand Findings in the December 12th USDA WASDE Report
For “new crop …