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May 7, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
Kansas HRW Winter Wheat Futures & Cash Markets
Hard red winter wheat market prices in the U.S. have continued to weaken since late January 2019, with
declines in futures prices somewhat mitigated by stronger basis levels in Kansas Hard Red Winter (HRW)
wheat cash markets.
After reaching highs of $6.34 on August 8, 2018, and $5.35 ½ on January 24, 2019, JULY 2019 HRW Wheat
futures had declined down to lows of $3.90 ½ on Tuesday, April 30th and $3.91 ½ on Monday, May 6th – before
closing at $4.03 the same day. The closing price of $4.03 on May 6th is down 36.4% from the August 2018
high, and down 24.7% from the January 2019 high.
In central Kansas terminal markets on Monday, May 6th reflect these same lower price trends but with
relatively strong basis levels compared to past large supply years. These prices reflect cash market sentiments
immediately after the 2019 Kansas Wheat Tour (April 30‐May 2), and four days ahead of the scheduled USDA
Crop Production and Worl …
December 21, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
a, with the removal of the 25% tariff that the Chinese had placed on U.S. soybean
imports. On December 12th it was announced that companies from China had made their first purchases of
U.S. soybeans since they imposed 25% tariffs on U.S. soybean imports into their country in July 2018, with
more purchases made by Chinese interests since then.
As a result of these ongoing trade conflicts between the U.S. and China, the USDA lowered its projection …
2018 Extension Outlook Conference
have missed…
Record US Corn Ethanol Production
Record … Ethanol Production
Record US Corn Ethanol Exports
Expanding … Ethanol Exports
Expanding US Corn Ethanol Capacity (16.3 billion …
December 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
12th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
reports, the USDA forecast that the 2017 U … Sorghum production combined with a large 2017 U.S. Corn crop of 14.578 billion …
November 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
spects
are “driving” market expectations for record large ending stocks and low prices for the “new crop” 2018/19
marketing year ending August 31, 2019.
What is “Known” – Record Large U.S. Soybean Production, Supplies, & % Stocks/Use : In the November
8, 2018 USDA Crop Production report, the USDA projected that the 2018 …
July 19, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Wheat Futures & Cash Market Trends Following the July 12th USDA Reports
Since the USDA’s July 12th Crop Produc … ltural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report, CME SEPTEMBER 20 …
August 1, 2021
Breakout Sessions
Wheat
• Grain Sorghum
• Corn
• Soybeans
• Cotton
Most … ministry pauses grain harvesting data – Reuters, 8/18/2021
Record … Reuters, 8/18/2021
Record Brazil corn imports for the Jan-Jul period …
August 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Wheat Futures & Cash Market Trends Following the August 10th USDA Reports
Since the USDA’s August 10th Crop Prod … ltural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report, CME SEPTEMBER 20 …
March 25, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
… 019.
C. Kansas HRW Wheat Cash Price & Basis Levels
In central Kansas on March 22nd – the 10th trading day a full two weeks after the USDA reports –
Kansas cash … ld ending stocks of 270.61 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19,
and 249.61 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Figure 15ab).
“World‐Less‐China” percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use are estimated to be and 11 year low of
21.15% in “current” MY 2018/19 – down from 23.80% in “old crop” MY 2017/18. This compares to
aggregate World Stocks‐to‐Use of 36.45% in “current” MY 2017/18, and 37.56% in “old crop” MY
20017/18.
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This “tightness” in “World‐Less‐China” wheat stocks along with tighter exportable supplies in the
European Union and the Black Sea region appear to have provided quiet support to World wheat
market prices, but has not as of yet caused any major rallies.
G. 2019 U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions
Prospects for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop are mostly “Fair to Good” at this time in the
southern and central plains region of the country. Reports from the USDA National Agricultural
Sta …
September 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
h Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) reports, the USDA forecast that the 2017 U … grain sorghum combined with a large 2017 U.S. corn crop of 14.184 billion b … continued to
pressure both U.S. grain sorghum and corn market prices. Just as with …