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September 1, 2023
2023 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
OUTLOOK
http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Take‐Home Summary
1.Supply Dynamics Supporting Higher Cattle Prices
2.Consumer Meat Demand Mixed in 23’ & Key to “Peak Prices” This Cycle
Quarterly Forecasts … 2023
Data Source: USDA‐AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns (as of 9/15/23’) (http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
July …
November 6, 2013
Broader political uncertainty
• Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices (http://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html)
• … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp
Number 10% Lower 10% Lower … 1,222/heifer (10 yrs) NPV
Longer‐term projections (as of Feb. 2013)
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm
2021 Projection 1.1
million less than Feb.
12’
2022 herd +12%
(vs. 2012)
19
As of: 11/4/13’
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
Nov FC:
11/4: $163
10/1: $165
9/1: $160
8/1: $160
MED …
June 26, 2012
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp)
• BEEF Magazine Poll … Economic Outlook Overview :
Policy Points of Relevance
• … http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Glynn T. Tonsor
Assistant …
July 22, 2015
Dairy Program Resources
is made the operation will default to CAT coverage.
Registration … www.AgManager.info under the “Policy” section and “2014
Farm … http://www.agmanager.info/events/Dairy/default.asp for more information.
18 …
November 5, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
it at: www.agmanager.info/policy/commodity/2012/default.asp
If you have additional …
December 4, 2013
Broader political uncertainty
• Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices
(http://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html)
• … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp
12/4/2013
9
Cow‐Calf – … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp
Net Present Value of Beef
Replacements
Number
Year …
June 15, 2012
Feed Costs (weather, farm policy, etc.)
• Shrinking … exchange rates, politics)
• Policy uncertainty (GIPSA, MCOOL … http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Glynn T. Tonsor
Assistant …
April 19, 2012
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp)
Scenario1: FARPI Adjusted … • Farm bill and tax code/policy uncertainties…
– … http://www.agmanager.info/Tools/default.asp)
44
• Expectations …
March 5, 2015
Commodity Program Papers
http://www.agmanager.info/policy/commodity/2012/default.asp).
The calculations inside … at:
http://www.agmanager.info/policy/commodity/2012/ARC-2014_Tradeoff-PLC-ARC-
2015.xlsx … typed over
the 32 bushel default with 44 bushels (Table 2 …
February 28, 2012
“normal”…are
new normal …
Policy/Regulation Issues & Trends …