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February 23, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… 2015 CME eSoybean Futures
June 23, 2014 – Feb. 20, 2015
Close = $9.80 on 2/20/2015
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I‐D. U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand
U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production
At the USDA 2015 Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19‐20, the USDA projected that 2015 U.S.
soybean planted acreage would be 83.5 million acre (ma), down from a record high 83.701 ma in 2014, but still
up from 76.840 ma in 2013, 77.198 ma in 2012, and 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 2).
The USDA also projected 2015 soybean harvested acreage to be 82.6 ma, down from a record high 83.061
ma in 2014, but up from 75.253 ma in 2013, 76.144 ma in 2012, and 73.776 ma in 2011. The 2015 proportion
of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. soybeans is projected to be 98.9%, down from 99.2% in both 2014
and 2013, but up from 98.6% in 2012 and 98.3% in 2011.
The USDA projected the 2015 U.S. average soybean yield of 46.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – which would
be the second highest on record, down from the record high 47.8 bu/ac in 2014, and up from 44.0 bu/ac in
2013, the drought‐affected 2012 low yield of 40.0 bu/ac., 42.0 bu/ac in 2011, 43.5 bu/ac in 2010, and the
previous record high of 44.0 bu/ac in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3).
Based on these 2015 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2015 U.S. soybean production to be
3.800 billion bushels (bb), down from the record high 3.958 bb in 2014, up from 3.358 bb in 2013, 3.042 bb in
2012, 3.097 bb in 2011, 3.331 bb in 2010, and 3.361 bb in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
U.S. Soybean Total Supplies
The USDA has projected that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “next crop” MY 2015/16 to be 4.205 bb,
which would be a record high, up from the current record high in “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 4.086 bb (up
10 mb from the January WASDE). This projection of total supplies of 4.205 bb in “next crop” MY 2015/16
results from beginning stocks of 185 mb, projected 2015 production of 3.800 bb, and projected imports of 20
mb (Table 1 and Figure 4). Over the recent period of expansion since 2006 in both U.S. corn ethanol
production and Chinese soybean import demand, total supplies of U.S. soybeans were 3.655 bb in MY 2006/07
(previous record high), 3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.512 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.495 bb in
MY 2010/11, 3.325 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.252 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.570 bb in MY 2013/14, the current record
high of 4.086 in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and now the projection of a new record high of 4.205 bb in “next
crop” MY 2015/16.
Beginning stocks of 385 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 are markedly higher than the record low of 92 mb
in “current crop” MY 2014/15, 141 mb in MY 2013/14, 169 mb in MY 2012/13, and 215 mb in MY 2011/12.
This forecast of higher beginning stocks of 385 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 is comparable to the recent
highs of 449 mb in MY 2006/07, and 574 mb in MY 2007/08. Conversely, the estimate of record low beginning
stocks of 92 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the low of 112 mb which occurred in MY
2004/05, and to what was the previous record low since the early 1970s of 103 mb in beginning stocks in MY
1977/78.
Projected imports of 20 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 are down from 25 mb in “current crop” MY
2014/15 (up 10 mb from the January WASDE), the record high of 72 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the 2nd
highest amount on record of 41 mb in MY 2012/13. United States’ soybean imports of 20 mb in “current
crop” MY 2015/16 would represent a return to near “normal” historically – being comparable to the range of
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10 – 16 mb in U.S. soybean imports for the MY 2007/08 through MY 2011/12 period, and to U.S. soybean
imports of less than 10 mb per marketing year going back to at least MY 1980/81.
U.S. Soybean Use by Category & Total Use
Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crush of 1.840 bb would be a new record high, up from
the 3rd highest amount on record of 1.795 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (up 15 mb from the January
WASDE report), 1.734 bb for MY 2013/14, 1.689 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.703 bb in MY 2011/12, and from a past
high of 1.752 bb in MY 2008/09 (Table 1 and Figure 5). The historic record high amount of U.S. soybean
domestic crushings of 1.808 bb occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity‐wise with 1.803 bb
in MY 2007/08.
U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.820 in “next crop” MY 2015/16 would be a
record high, up from the current record of 1.790 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (up 20 mb from January)
(Table 1 and Figure 5). United States’ soybean exports were 1.116 bb in MY 2006/07, followed by 1.159 bb in
MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.501 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.365 bb in MY
2011/12, 1.317 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.647 bb in MY 2013/14, the current high of 1.790 bb in “current crop” MY
2014/15, and what would be the new projected high of 1.820 bb in “next crop” MY 2015/16.
Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales in “current crop” MY 2014/15, as
of February 12th, with 24 of 52 weeks (46.2%) of “current crop” MY 2014/15 complete, 1,451.4 mb of U.S.
soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to 81.1% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.790 bb for
“current crop” MY 2014/15 (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html). United States’ export shipments will need to average 12.1
mb per week through the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s
February 10th WASDE projection of 1.790 bb. This compares to U.S. soybean export shipments of 58.9 mb and
49.8 mb which occurred during the weeks ending February 5th and February 12th, respectively. As a result,
U.S. soybean export shipments were “ahead of pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.790
bb in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. However, it is expected that as South American soybean
harvest progresses in earnest in early spring 2015 with increased supplies becoming available for export –
competing with the U.S. for shipments – that the average weekly pace of U.S. soybean exports will decrease
significantly in a seasonal manner from current levels.
Also as of February 12th an additional 264.1 mb of U.S. soybeans had also been sold for future export sales
in “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Of course these future sales of U.S. soybeans are subject to the risk
of cancellation later prior to actual shipment – especially if a large South American soybean crop comes to
fruition in the coming months and export buyers find comparable amounts of lower cost supplies to purchase
elsewhere. Adding together 1451.4 mb in actual past shipments plus 264.1 mb in forward sales amounts to
1.715 bb, or 95.8% of the USDA’s 1.790 bb U.S. soybean export target for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the
February 10th USDA WASDE report, with only 46.2% (24/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 92 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 is unchanged from “current crop” MY
2014/15, down from 97 mb in MY 2013/14, up from 89 mb in MY 2012/13, and up from 90 mb in MY 2011/12
(Table 1 and Figure 5).
Residual Use: Forecast residual use of 24 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 20 mb in “current crop”
MY 2014/15, 0 mb in MY 2013/14, and from 16 mb in MY 2012/13.
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Total U.S. Soybean Use: Projected U.S. total use of 3.775 bb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 would be a new
record high, and is up from the current record high of 3.701 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (up 35 mb from
the January WASDE report) (Table 1 and Figure 5). Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total U.S. soybean
use has been 3.081 bb in MY 2006/07, 3.056 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.047 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.361 bb in MY
2009/10, 3.280 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.155 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.111 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.478 bb in MY 2013/14,
the current record high of 3.701 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and the projected new record high of 3.775
bb in “next crop” MY 2015/16.
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks‐to‐Use, & Prices
Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are 430 mb, up from their “current crop”
MY 2014/15 forecast of 385 mb (down 35 mb from the January WASDE). Projected “next crop” MY 2015/16
ending stocks of 430 mb would be the largest amount since 449 mb in MY 2005/06, and 574 mb in MY
2007/08, and compares to 205 mb in MY 2007/08, 138 mb in MY 2008/09, 151 in MY 2009/10, 215 mb in MY
2010/11, 169 mb in MY 2011/12, 141 mb in MY 2012/13, the record low since at least MY 1980/81 of mb 92 in
MY 2013/14, and 385 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 5).
Percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use of 11.39% is forecast for “next crop” MY 2015/16, up from 10.40% in
forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (down from 11.39% in the January WASDE report), but still up
markedly from the record low of 2.65% for MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 6‐7). United States’ soybean %
ending stocks‐to‐use have been 18.62% in MY 2006/07, 6.71% in MY 2007/08, 4.53% in MY 2008/09, 4.49% in
MY 2009/10, 6.55% in MY 2010/11, 5.36% in MY 2011/12, 4.53% in MY 2012/13, the record low of 2.65% in
MY 2013/14, the projection of 10.40% for “current crop” MY 2014/15, and now the latest forecast of 11.39%
for “next crop” MY 2015/16.
U.S. average soybean prices for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are forecast to be $9.00 per bushel, down from
$10.20 /bu in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 6‐7). United States’ soybean prices have been
$6.43 per bushel in MY 2006/07, $10.10 in MY 2007/08, $9.97 in MY 2008/09, $9.59 in MY 2009/10, $11.30 in
MY 2010/11, $12.50 in MY 2011/12, a record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13, $13.00 for MY 2013/14, $10.20 in
“current crop” MY 2014/15, with the projection of $9.00 /bu in “next crop” MY 2015/16.
I‐D. KSU Soybean Market Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16
For “next crop” MY 2015/16, KSU projections reflect the likelihood of two separate U.S. soybean acreage,
production, and market outcome scenarios. Scenario #1 is developed on the assumption of unchanged U.S.
soybean planted acreage from 2014 – at 83.704 ma and trend line yields of 45.1 bu/ac. Scenario #2 relies on
the assumption of a two (2) million acre increase in U.S. soybean planted acreage – up to 85.701 ma in 2015 –
again with trend line yields of 45.1 bu/ac.
The supply‐demand and price assumptions associated with these two KSU projection scenarios for “next
crop” MY 2015/16 are shown in Table 1, with planted and harvested acres represented in Figure 2, yields in
Figure 3, total supplies for the 85.710 ma scenario in Figure 4, total use by category and ending stocks for the
KSU “+ 2 million acre or 85.701 ma” scenario in Figure 5, and ending stocks and price outcomes for the KSU “+
2 million acre or 85.701 ma” scenario in Figures 6‐7. Key details of each scenario are presented below.
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KSU Scenario #1: “83.701 ma Planted” in MY 2015/16 for U.S. Soybeans 40% Probability
2015 U.S. Soybean Planted Area = 83.701 million acres and 2015 Yields = 45.1 bu/ac
‐ 2015 U.S. Planted Acres …
March 20, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ina and Paraguay exports as a proportion of World
soybean trade in “current year” MY 2014/15 has been offset by increases in United States’ exports.
Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports
The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this
same three period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt
in MY 2013/14 (32.2% of World total), and 108.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (34.3% of the World
total). United States’ soybean production in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up 18.2% over last
year, and up 30.5% over two years ago.
United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8
mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.6% of World total), and a projected amount of 48.7 mmt in “current crop” MY
2014/15 (41.5% of the World total). United States’ soybean exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are
projected to be up 8.7% over last year, and up 35.9% over two years ago.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level
sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Market
analysts have speculated that Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine
industry production issues or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors within the country.
However, the USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16, and beyond. If this recent upward trend in Chinese
soybean imports and import demand were to falter, it would undoubtably have a substantial negative impact
on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014, cash soybean prices had
fallen below $9.00 per bushel in late November, but have since moved higher. Central Kansas Terminal cash
bids were in the range of $9.00 ¾ ($0.61 under basis) to $9.31 ¾ ($0.30 under basis) on Thursday, March 19th.
Soybean forward contract prices for fall harvest in October 2015 in the key central Kansas market of
Hutchinson, Kansas were in the range of $8.62 / bu. ($0.86 under basis) to $8.96 ($0.50 under basis). “Current
crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.62 ½ per bushel that day, with “next year’s crop” NOVEMBER
2015 soybean futures closing at $9.47 ¾ per bushel.
Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16 indicate that
a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be
harvested in early‐mid 2015 will again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in
these projected trends in production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market. The
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possibility of weather‐related soybean production problems in South America during the spring of 2015, or in
the United States during the summer‐fall of 2015 could impact these trends. However, until such potential
production problems actually do occur the World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant
trends” will continue into the foreseeable future.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the March 10th USDA Reports
“Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the
information in the March 10th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the reports CME MARCH 2015 futures
prices opened at $9.92 ½ /bu, and traded as high as $9.94 and as low as $9.81 ¾ during the session, before
settling at $9.84 ½ – down $0.08 ¾ for the day. Since then MAY 2015 soybean futures prices have traded
within the range from a high of $9.97 ½ on March 11th and 12th, to a low of $9.53 ½ on March 17th and 18th,
before closing at $9.73 ¾ on Thursday, March 20th.
Figure 1. MAY 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
November 8, 2016
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producers and stakeholders in other areas. The knowledge of how … specific conservation plan to meet local goals. LEMAs are
proactive … minimizing the effects of other factors such as
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March 13, 2019
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producers and stakeholders in other areas. The knowledge of how … specific conservation plan to meet local goals. LEMAs are
proactive … minimizing the effects of other factors such as
3 …
Summary Book - All Counties
1,815 FARM UNITS plus 463 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,278 … Income output. Income for
other livestock and crop items … Crop Enterprises:
Total Other Income: Summation of: Landlord …
June 1, 2009
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Summary Book - All Counties
1,891 FARM UNITS plus 415 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2 … 43-59
Can My Farm Meet the Test? ........................................................................................................60 … Income output.
Income for other livestock and crop items …
July 30, 2015
Animal Well-Being
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Other 0%
No answer 6%
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Other 3%
Most frequent cattle … feedlot operation 9%
Other 7%
Did not answer 4%
Table …
June 25, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
the later half of “old crop” MY 2017/18, i.e., February through August 2018.
World Total Supplies: World corn total supplies of 1,245.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast
to be down moderately from 1,262.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but up from the record high of 1,288.4
mmt in MY 2016/17.
World Exports: World corn exports of a 158.0 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2018/19, up 4.6%
from 151.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but down 1% from the record high of 159.7 mmt in MY 2016/17
(Table 3).
World Ending Stocks (% Stocks/Use): Projected World corn ending stocks of 154.7 mmt (14.2% S/U) in
“new crop” MY 2018/19 are down 19.7% from 192.7 mmt (18.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, down 32.1%
from the record high 227.9 mmt (21.5% S/U) in MY 2016/17, and 210.0 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16
(Figure 13‐14a, Tables 8‐9). Projected Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn ending stocks of 114.6 mmt (13.1% S/U) in
“new crop” MY 2018/19, is down 16.5% from 139.3 mmt (16.5% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and is down
from 17.7% from 169.3 mmt (20.0% S/U) in MY 2016/17.
World‐Less‐China Ending Stocks (% Stocks/Use): An alternative view of the World corn supply‐
demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks are isolated from the World market (Figures
14b‐c, Tables 7‐9). “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 94.19 mmt (11.2% S/U) in “new
crop” MY 2018/19, down from 113.1 mmt (13.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and down from 127.2 mmt
(15.4% S/U) in MY 2016/17. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be 21% lower (i.e., 11.2% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China” versus 14.2% S/U for the “World”
overall in “new crop” MY 2018/19).
World versus China Ending Stocks: At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending
stocks of corn as proportion of the World total are declining – down from 52.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.2% in
MY 2016/17, to 41.3% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and now are projected to be 39.1% in “new crop” MY
2018/19 (Tables 2‐9). The deliberate actions in recent years taken by the Chinese government to reduce
feedgrain stockpiles is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These actions may
eventually increase Chinese import demand for U.S. feedgrains if and when China has a severe short crop
situation and limited stockpiles available to meet domestic demand.
…
Summary Book - All Counties
Income output. Income for
other livestock and crop items … Crop Enterprises:
Total Other Income: Summation of: Landlord … to industry benchmarks and other farms in
your area. We wish …