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September 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
U’) in MY 2013/14, soybean stocks grew
sharply to 77.5 mmt (25.6% S/U) in MY 2014/15 and 77.7 mmt (24.7% S/U). Then in “old crop” MY 2016/17
World ending stocks are estimated to have increased to a record level of 96.0 mmt (29.1% S/U), followed by a
further increase to 97.5 mmt (28.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A key World soybean market strategy will be to wait to figure out whether dry conditions or some other
crop production malady will occur in late 2017 or early 2018 in South America that could limit 2018 soybean
production in the southern hemisphere. Although World soybean demand growth has been as strong as can
be expected, it seems that a “supply shock” or “crop shortfall” in 2018 or following years would be the most
likely factor to drive World soybean production and supply‐demand balances low enough to alter the existing
“large supply – buyer’s market” situation. With prospects now pointing toward a near record 2017 U.S.
soybean crop, World markets will turn their attention toward 2018 South American production prospects as
the next major source of soybean market risk – providing the possibility of a change in paradigm and higher
soybean prices in the next 12‐18 months.
3. USDA Corn Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
The USDA made no adjustments in its projection of 2017 U.S. soybean plantings of a record high 89.513
million acres (ma) – up from 83.433 ma in 2016. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of a record 88.731 ma is also
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up from 82.736 ma in 2016. With near record high projected yields of 49.9 bu/ac (up 0.5 bu from August),
2017 U.S. soybean production is projected to be a record high 4.431 bb – up from 4.307 bb in 2016 (2nd
highest) and from 3.926 bb in 2014. With forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 domestic crush at a record 1.940
bb and exports forecast to be a record 2.250 bb (up 25 mb), projected U.S. total soybean use is a record 4.326
bb – up from 4.183 bb in “old crop” MY 2016/17 and from 3.944 bb in the previous marketing year.
Given these results, “new crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecast to be an 11 year high
of 475 mb (10.98% S/U), while U.S. soybean prices are forecast to be in the range of $8.35‐$10.05 (midpoint =
$9.20 /bu). This U.S. soybean price forecast is down from $9.50 in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from $8.95
the year before. This USDA projection scenario is thought to have a 60% probability of occurring in the
judgment of Kansas State University Extension.
4. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. soybean supply‐demand and prices to the USDA projection are
presented for “new crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood that exists of higher U.S.
soybean acreage, lower yields and lower production, and higher prices than projected by the USDA in the
September 12, 2017 WASDE report.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Lower Yield” Scenario #1) “48.0 bu/ac – 4.278 bb” Scenario (30%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 48.0 bu/ac yield, 4.278 bb production,
4.648 bb total supplies, 4.226 bb total use, 422 mb ending stocks, 9.99% S/U, & $9.70 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Very Low Yield” Scenario #2) “45.85 bu/ac – 4.085 bb” Scenario (5%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 45.85 bu/ac yield, 4.085 bb production,
4.455 bb total supplies, 4.106 bb total use, 349 mb ending stocks, 8.50% S/U, & $10.20 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard World Event” Scenario #3) “48.0 bu/ac – 4.278 bb” Scenario (5%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 48.0 bu/ac yield, 4.278 bb production,
4.648 bb total supplies, 3.861 bb total use, 787 mb ending stocks, 20.38% S/U, & $7.00 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
Note: The presence of large beginning stocks of 345 mb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness” of
supply‐demand balances along with prospects for a record large 2017 U.S. soybean crop of 4.431 bb (USDA).
Prospects for such large supplies of soybeans hinders any upward price responses in the KSU Scenarios A, B and
C above.
…
July 25, 1997
Hedging & Options
the optimal
alternative. Other pricing methods such as cash … quanti-
ties are being traded to meet cross hedged futures
contract … soybeans, wheat, or some other
futures contract be used …
October 1, 2023
2023 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
In Ourselves, and Helping Others
Photo: Copyright istock.com/roman023
MICHIGAN … effective communication with others.• Organize and promote … you going?• Who are you meeting?• What might you encounter?• …
General Sessions
markets is widely-cited by other academic researchers and … allow obligated parties to meet their individual
mandates … diesel, biogas, etc.), to meet the volumes
of total renewable …
August 20, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
1250*(1.03) = $1287.50. On the other hand, it could be that Vm … instances of land prices (or other input prices)
being “too … exactly opposite of each other; a value of 1 indicates that …
Summary Book - All Counties
2,260 FARM UNITS plus 633 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,893 … 81,684
Poultry and Eggs5 4,134
Other Livestock6 -6,931
Custom … 57,542
Hay and Forage15 1,235
Other Crop16 6,700
Government Payments17 …
August 1, 2011
Land Buying and Valuing
1250*(1.03) = $1287.50. On the other hand, it could be that Vm … instances of land prices (or other input prices)
being “too … exactly opposite of each other; a value of 1 indicates that …
June 24, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. June 10th USDA WASDE & the June 30th USDA Acreage Reports
On June 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its June 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, “current” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years.
The “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. soybeans began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016,
with “new crop” MY 2016/17 beginning 9/1/2016 and lasting through 8/31/2017.
Prior to the April 12th, May 10th, and June 10th USDA WASDE reports, on March 31st the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain
Stocks reports. Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used by the USDA as the
base estimate for the USDA’s 2016 U.S. soybean planted acreage forecast in the June 10th WASDE report.
However, more current farmer survey‐based information on 2016 planted and harvested acreage for U.S.
soybeans and other major and minor crops will be made available by USDA NASS in its’ June 30th 2016 Acreage
report. The findings of the USDA 2016 Acreage report will provide information from surveys of nearly 70,000
U.S. farm operators that were conducted the first two weeks in June 2016, supplemented with historical
planted‐to‐harvested acreage relationships and the historic accuracy of past USDA Acreage report projections.
I‐B. CME JULY & NOV 2016 Soybean Futures Trends & Kansas Cash Prices
Since lows of $8.59 ½ on November 23, 2015, $8.63 on January 4, 2016, and $8.62 on February
29, 2016, JULY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) soybean futures prices have traded higher
– up to $12.08 ½ on June 6th before closing at $11.03 on Friday, June 24th (Figure 1).
Similarly, since lows of $8.50 on September 8, 2015, $8.59 ¼ on November 9, 2015, $8.68 on
January 4, 2016, and $8.68 on February 29, 2016, NOVEMBER 2016 CME soybean futures prices have
traded up to $11.86 ¼ on June 13th, before closing at $10.78 ½ on Friday, June 24th (Figure 1).
Figure 1. JULY and NOVEMBER 2016 CME Soybean Futures Weekly Price Charts …
April 26, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. April 12th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports
On April 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “current” 2015/16 marketing
years. The “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
The March 9th and April 12th USDA WASDE reports followed earlier U.S. soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year (i.e., MY 2016/17) provided by the USDA at the 2016
Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 25‐26, 2016.
Prior to the April 12th USDA WASDE report, on March 31st the USDA National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. The
USDA used information from the Quarterly Grain Stocks report to make adjustments in the U.S. soybean
supply‐demand balance sheet. Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used in this
report to update the USDA’s soybean production and supply‐demand projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
These adjustments anticipate what the USDA is likely to do if it follows it’s usual practice in the upcoming May
10th USDA WASDE report when it releases its own updated U.S. corn supply‐demand and price projection for
“next crop” MY 2016/17.
I‐B. Comments on Major World Soybean Market Trends
The activities of the World soybean market over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood by
recognizing several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade
among major countries and regions of the World involved in soybean trade. The primary countries involved in
or “driving” these predominant trends have been China in terms of demand factors, South American countries
(Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others), and the United States …