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2021 Mini-Risk and Profit Conference Presentations
Twitter: @TonsorGlynn
BEEF-CATTLE OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … LMIC: 12/9/20)
2020 Per Capita Consumption: +0.9%!
Q1: +5.5%Q2: ‐8.3%Q3: +6.8%Q4: ‐0.2%
Trade continues smoothing role:(compare Domestic Production & Domestic PC Cons by quarter)
Also see: https://www.agmanager.info/livestock‐meat/marketing‐extension‐bulletins/trade‐and‐demand/overview‐us‐beef‐production‐export …
February 23, 2012
I)
* I = Inventory, M = Marketings, P = Production
** Feedlots … and accounted for 84.6% of marketings
Production from approximately … Head
C-N-30
01/29/12Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data …
November 1, 2012
2012
1
www.agmanager.info
Economic Outlook Overview:
Cow-Calf Sector
• … Cow-Calf Sector
• Strong calf price pullback during 2012
– … regional drought magnified market impact compared to 2011
• …
December 1, 2014
Cattle Finishing Returns
This process reflects a cashmarket
situation withoutprice risk management strategies … estimates and to reflect current market conditions.
Close-out …
November 1, 2014
Cattle Finishing Returns
This process reflects a cashmarket
situation withoutprice risk management strategies … estimates and to reflect current market conditions.
Close-out …
October 1, 2014
Cattle Finishing Returns
This process reflects a cashmarket
situation withoutprice risk management strategies … estimates and to reflect current market conditions.
Close-out …
November 14, 2013
University
Overarching Economic Outlook
• Supplies
– “Certain” Cattle Supplies (hd) – … Is there general sentiment of industry‐wide
structural change occurring?
Economic Outlook Overview :
Cow‐Calf
• … Better pastures (nationally), lower forage prices, and
higher calf …
August 25, 2015
University
www.agmanager.info
Overarching Beef Industry
Economic Outlook
• Supplies
– Historically … Cwt.
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES
400-500 Pounds, Southern … Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Beef …
March 24, 2021
5-600# Southern Plains Calf Price ($/cwt) = $164-166
2. Feedlot … Feedlot
2021 5-Mkt Steer Price ($/cwt)= $114-118
https://lmic.info/
Agricultural … AVERAGE COW CALF COSTS
Total Cash Cost Plus Pasture Rent, …
March 1, 2016
Cattle Finishing Returns
This process reflects a cashmarket
situation withoutprice risk management strategies … estimates and to reflect current market conditions.
Close-out …