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Grain Market Outlook

Wheat Market Outlook in April 2015

April 29, 2016


Summary

Since the USDA’s April 12th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, U.S. and World wheat market prices have been volatile because of worries about U.S. and foreign crops and a weakening of the U.S. dollar – first trending higher through April 21st, and then dropped sharply through April 25th before trending higher again through April 29th.  For the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year the USDA projected: 1) World wheat total supplies of 947.9 mmt and total use of 708.7 mmt – both at record high levels, 2) that at least marginally weaker trade continues in World wheat exports with 163.1 mmt in the current marketing year – down from 164.1 mmt last year, and from 165.9 mmt two years ago, c) World wheat ending stocks at a record high 239.3 mmt compared to 214.8 mmt last year, and 193.9 mmt two years ago, and d), World wheat percent ending stocks-to-use of 33.8% - up from 30.5% last year and from 27.8% two years ago – up to their highest level in 14 years (since MY 2001/02).  For perspective, the 34-year low in World wheat ending stocks of 128.7 mmt and at least a 57-year low in percent ending stocks-to-use of 20.9% S/U both occurred in MY 2007/08, the last major World wheat “short crop” marketing year. 

The World wheat market continues to monitor a) potential wheat production problems in major world wheat production areas such northwestern Africa, the Middle East, south Asia/India, China, South America, and Australia, and the central and southern plains of the United States (possible wheat disease problems from seasonal rains), b) ongoing geopolitical conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that could impact commodity markets, and c) spillover impacts into grain markets and other commodities from volatile World economies, and financial and currency markets.  Even so, the “large crop-over supply” situation that exists in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on World wheat prices. 

It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly before summer-2016.  Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate – although it has been weakening recently – alos is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks-to-use, and causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices. 

USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made minor changes in its supply-demand and price projections for U.S. wheat in the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 775 million bushels (mb) of exports, 140 mb wheat feed use (down 10 mb), 1.948 bb of total use (down 10 mb), 976 mb ending stocks (up 10 mb), and 50.09% ending-stocks-to-use (up from 49.34% in March to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10).  A price range of $4.90-$5.00 /bu was forecast by the USDA with a midpoint of $4.95 /bu – the lowest U.S. wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.

USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Based on March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings Report forecasts and information from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA on February 25-26, 2016, a KSU-adjusted USDA forecast of U.S. wheat supply-demand is available for “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning June 1, 2016.   The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 49.559 million acres (ma) – down 5.085 ma from 2015.  Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 42.174 ma would be down 4.920 ma vs 2015.  Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 1.935 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with “next crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 3.036 bb (up from 2.924 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16).  With projected “next crop” MY 2016/17 ending stocks of 943 mb and percent ending stocks-to-use of 45.05% S/U, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be $4.20 /bu – down from $4.95 /bu in “current crop” MY 2015/16.   It is assumed by KSU that these adjusted USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is assumed to have a 40% probability of occurring.

KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17:  Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply-demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming the same 2016 planted acreage as USDA, but 437,000 less acres harvested than the adjusted USDA estimates based on historical percent harvested-to-planted acres relationships.  A) KSU-Scenario A (Trend Yield) (30% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.021 bb total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.043 bb total use, 978 mb ending stocks, 47.87% S/U, & $4.05 /bu U.S. wheat average price;  B) KSU-Scenario B (Foreign Crop Problems – Higher U.S. Exports) (15% prob.) assumes for “next crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.021 bb total supplies, 1.050 bb exports, 2.243 bb total use, 778 mb ending stocks, 34.7% S/U, & $5.10 /bu U.S. wheat average price;  and C) KSU-Scenario C (Widespread U.S. Crop Problems) (15% prob.) assumes for “next crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac yield, 1.669 bb production, 2.770 bb total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.043 bb total use, 727 mb ending stocks, 35.6% S/U, & $5.00 /bu U.S. wheat average price. 



I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook

I-A. April 12th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports

On April 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2016 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply-demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “current” 2015/16 marketing years.  The “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.  The March 9th and April 12th USDA WASDE reports followed earlier U.S. corn supply-demand and price projections for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year (i.e., MY 2016/17) provided by the USDA at the 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 25-26, 2016.

Prior to the April 12th USDA WASDE report, on March 31st the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.  The USDA used information from the Quarterly Grain Stocks report to make adjustments in the U.S. wheat supply-demand balance sheet.  Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used in this report to update the USDA’s wheat production and supply-demand projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17.  These adjustments anticipate what the USDA is likely to do if it follows it’s usual practice in the upcoming May 10th USDA WASDE report when it releases its own updated U.S. wheat supply-demand and price projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17.

I-B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat MAY & DEC 2016 Futures

Since a low of $4.42 ¼ on April 11, 2016, MAY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $4.81 ¼ on April 21st, then falling to a low of $4.51 ¾ on April 25th before closing at $4.65 ¼ on Friday, April 29th (Figure 1).  

Since a low of $4.88 on April 11, 2016, DEC 2016 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.45 on April 21st, then fell to a low of $5.03 on April 25th before closing at $5.18 ¼ on Friday, April 29th (Figure 1). 

Figure 1. MAY 2016 & JULY 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts

 

I-C. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends

So far in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year wheat cash and futures prices have moved lower from June through September 2015, followed by a modest increase in prices during October.  However, since October 2015 U.S. wheat prices have moved sideways-to-lower through November-December-January, but then dropped sharply through February-March 2016.  Expectations at this time are for U.S. wheat prices to trend essentially sideways-to-lower during March-April-May.    

Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop” MY 2014/15) plus “New Crop” MY 2015/16 (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA)

 

Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price trends (Figure 2).  Since MY 1999/00 Kansas hard red winter wheat prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average seasonal price index of 96.9% of the unweighted average marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June through May marketing year.  However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then trended higher on average after harvest through September-October, and then have trended sideways from November through January, with moderate seasonal strength in February-March, followed by a sideways-to-lower trend in during April and May. 

According to historic pattern, most of the post-harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices should have been realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the marketing year.  The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June-July and the period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February-March), with accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).   

I-D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index

The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher from mid-July 2011 through mid-January 2016 (Figure 3).  After an index value of 75.70 on July 1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 93.37 on Friday, March 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%.  Then after moving lower for a period of time, the index rose again to an even higher high of 95.80 on January 20, 2016. Since then the index has trended somewhat lower, with the latest recorded value of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index being 89.6457 on Friday, April 22, 2016.

This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is especially significant to the U.S. wheat market.  A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. wheat exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars). 

Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports and as a result U.S. wheat markets, it is a very important one which currently works against the United States ability to be an affordable, competitive export seller in the World wheat trade.    

Figure 3. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index – Major Currencies (DTWEXM)                                
(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)

 

I-E. U.S. Wheat Production Acreage, Yield & Production

U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage

In the March 31st Prospective Plantings report the USDA forecast that 2016 U.S. total wheat planted acres would be 49.559 million acres (ma), down 5.085 ma (-9.3%) from 54.644 ma in 2015, down 12.8% from 56.841 ma in 2014, and down 11.9% from 56.236 ma in 2013 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).  KSU projection for 2016 U.S. wheat planted acres would be the same as those of the USDA.

Winter Wheat Planted Acres: In its March 31st Prospective Plantings report, the USDA projected 2016 U.S. winter wheat seedings to be 36.216 ma – adjusted downward by 413,000 acres (1.1%) from its January 12th USDA 2016 Winter Wheat Seedings report projection.   Winter wheat seedings of 36.216 ma in 2015 for harvest in 2016 are down 3.301 ma (-8.2%) from 39.461 ma in 2015, down 6.193 ma (-14.7%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 7.014 ma from 43.230 ma (-16.2%) in 2013 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).   

Of this total amount of 2016 U.S. Winter Wheat acres, Hard Red Winter wheat planted acres are projected to be 26.20 ma, down from 28.98 ma in 2015 and 30.50 ma in 2014.  Soft Red Winter wheat planted acres are projected to be 6.60 ma, down from 7.09 ma in 2015 and 8.48 ma in 2014.  White Winter wheat planted acres are projected to be 3.37 ma, down from 3.40 ma in 2015 and 3.43 ma in 2014.

 “Other Spring Wheat” Planted Acres: The USDA forecast 2016 “other spring wheat” planted area to be 11.348 ma, down 1.899 ma (-14.3%) from 13.247 ma in 2015, down from 13.025 ma in 2014, and from 11.606 ma in 2013 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).  Of these acres, 10.70 ma were projected to be seeded to Hard Red Spring Wheat in 2016, down from 12.51 ma in 2015, and 12.25 ma in 2013. 

Durum Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA forecast 2016 durum wheat planted area to be 1.995 ma, up 59,000 acres (+3.0%) from 1.936 ma in 2015, and up from 1.407 ma in 2014, and 1.400 ma in 2013 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).   

Figure 4. U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage – All Winter, Other Spring & Durum Classes (1981-2016) as of March 31, 2016 USDA Prospective Plantings Report & Other USDA NASS Data

 

U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage

Taking the USDA’s 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum projection (on February 25-26) for 2016 harvested-to-planted acres percentage of 85.1% times the U.S. All Wheat planted acreage forecast of 49.559 ma from the March 31st Prospective Plantings report, gives a projected 2016 U.S. All Wheat Harvested Acreage estimate of 42.174 ma.  This KSU-adjusted USDA projection of 42.174 ma for 2016 U.S. wheat harvested acres is down 4.920 ma (down 10.4%) from 47.094 ma in 2015, and down from 46.385 ma in 2014, and 45.332 ma in 2013 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  

The KSU April 2016 forecast of 2016 U.S. wheat harvested acres is 41.737 ma, using a 2000-2015 average harvested-to-planted acres percentage of 84.2% on the USDA’s forecast of 49.559 ma planted – down 437,000 acres (-1.0%) from the adjusted USDA 2016 projection (Table 1). 

   Figure 5. U.S. All Wheat Planted & Harvested Acreage (1973-2016) as of March 31, 2016 USDA Prospective Plantings Report, with KSU-adjusted 2016 USDA Harvested Acreage estimate

 

U.S. Wheat Yields & Production

The USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum projection is for 2016 U.S. wheat yields to be 45.9 bu/ac, up from 43.6, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).  This USDA forecast scenario is given a 40% probability of occurring by KSU estimates.  The KSU projection of 2016 U.S. average wheat yields is 46.0 bu/ac, which is a trendline forecast for 2016 based on all yields over the 1973-2015 time period – which is thought to have a combined 45% probability of occurring.  Also by KSU estimates, there is also approximately a 15% likelihood of a 40 bu/ac low U.S. wheat yield due to some combination of crop production problems.

Figure 6. U.S. All Wheat Yield (1973-2015) and USDA 2016 Early Projection as of February 26th USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast, with KSU Long-Term Trend Estimate for 2016

Table 1. U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2010/11 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 as of April 12, 2016 WASDE Report, projections from the February 26th USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, the March 31st Prospective Plantings Report, and KSU projections for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17.

Item

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

USDA

2015/16

USDA

KSU Adjusted

Ag Outlook Forum Projections 2016/17

KSU

Trend-line U.S. Wheat Yields 2016/17

KSU

Foreign Crop Problems & Higher U.S. Wheat Exports 2016/17

KSU

Widespread U.S. Wheat Crop Problems

2016/17

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

40%

30%

15%

15%

Planted Area (million acres)

52.620

54.277

55.294

56.236

56.841

54.644

49.559

49.559

49.559

49.559

Harvested Area (million acres)

46.883

45.687

48.758

45.332

46.385

47.094

42.174

41.737

41.737

41.737

% Harvested/Planted Area

89.1%

84.2%

88.2%

80.6%

81.6%

86.2%

85.1%

84.2%

84.2%

84.2%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

46.1

43.6

46.2

47.1

43.7

43.6

45.9

46.0

46.0

40.0

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks

976

863

743

718

590

752

*976

976

976

976

Production

2,163

1,993

2,252

2,135

2,026

2,052

*1,935

1,920

1,920

1,669

Imports

97

113

124

173

149

120

125

125

125

125

Total Supply

3,236

2,969

3,119

3,026

2,766

2,924

*3,036

3,021

3,021

2,770

 

 

Food Use

926

941

951

955

958

967

974

974

974

974

Seed Use

71

76

73

77

79

66

69

69

69

69

Exports

1,291

1,051

1,012

1,176

854

775

850

850

1,050

850

Feed & Residual Use

85

159

365

228

122

140

200

150

150

150

Total Use

2,373

2,227

2,401

2,436

2,014

1,948

2,093

2,043

2,243

2,043

 

 

Ending Stocks

863

743

718

590

752

976

*943

978

778

727

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

36.37%

33.35%

29.90%

24.24%

37.36%

50.09%

*45.05%

47.87%

34.69%

35.58%

U.S. Wheat Avg. Farm Price ($/bushel)

$5.70

$7.24

 

$7.77

 

$6.87

$5.99

$4.90-$5.00 ($4.95)

$4.20

$4.05

$5.10

$5.00


USDA Production Forecast for 2016: Based on this combination of KSU-adjusted USDA projections for 2016 planted acreage (49.559 ma), harvested acreage (42.174 ma), and yield (45.9 bu/ac), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 1.935 billion bushels (bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).  This USDA forecast scenario of 1.935 bb is given a 40% probability of occurring by KSU estimates, and is down from 2.052 bb in 2015, 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004-2013 range of 1.808-2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb). 

By KSU projection estimates, there is a combined 45% likelihood of 2016 U.S. wheat production of U.S. wheat of approximately 1.920 bb based on KSU acreage assumptions and trend line yields (Table 1).  However, there is also estimated to be a 15% likelihood of a widespread U.S. wheat crop problem occurring – resulting in low approximate production of 1.669 bb in 2016.

I-F. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies

Total supplies of U.S. wheat for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are projected in the KSU-adjusted USDA forecast in this article to be 3.036 bb, which would be up from 2.924 bb for “current crop” MY 2015/16.  The KSU-adjusted USDA projection of 3.036 bb in total supplies for “next crop” MY 2016/17 result from beginning stocks of 976 mb, projected 2016 production of 1.935 bb, and projected imports of 125 mb (Table 1 and Figure 7).  This USDA forecast scenario of 1.935 bb in U.S. wheat supplies is given a 40% probability of occurring by KSU estimates. By KSU projections estimates, there is a combined 45% likelihood of U.S. wheat total supplies in “next crop” MY 2016/17 of 3.021 bb, down marginally from the USDA’s forecast of 3.082 bb (Table 1).  Also, KSU projects there is 15% likelihood of U.S. wheat total supplies falling to 2.770 bb in a short crop scenario for “next crop” MY 2016/17.

Figure 7. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies for MY 2004/05 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 as of March 31, 2016 USDA Prospective Plantings & April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE Reports

 

The USDA’s forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 976 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17, are up from 752 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, 590 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 718 mb in MY 2013/14.  Projected U.S. wheat imports of 125 mb for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 120 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 149 mb in MY 2014/15 (the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in MY 2013/14. 

Canada Wheat Production Trends: Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and associated grain transportation logistic advantages.  Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports.  Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt (1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 27.60 mmt (1,014 bb) in “current crop” MY 2015/16.  The largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990 (32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and 2013 (37.53 mmt or 1.379 bb).  

I-G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category

Food Use: The USDA forecast U.S. wheat food use of approximately 974 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17, following a consistent upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated regular increases in domestic demand for processed wheat products.  This estimated projected amount of 974 mb in food use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 967 mb for “current crop” MY 2015/16, 958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8). 

Seed Use: The USDA forecast seed use of approximately 69 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17, up from 66 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 79 mb in MY 2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).  

Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 850 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 775 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but is down marginally from 854 mb in MY 2014/15.  Total U.S. wheat exports of 775 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72 prior to the “Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8).  This USDA forecast scenario of 850 mb in U.S. wheat exports is given a 40% probability of occurring by KSU estimates.  

Export projections by KSU of “next crop” MY 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports are probability-weighted by scenario, with a combined 45% likelihood of 850 mb in U.S. wheat exports – equal to the USDA’s projection of 850 mb.  There also seems to be a 15% probability of much larger U.S. wheat exports of, say, 1.050 bb occurring in “next crop” MY 2016, very likely due to significant and at this time unforeseen major foreign crop production problems in 2016 among key World exporting and/or using countries (Table 1).

The primary factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies – in particular those of other major World wheat exporters, and b) prospects for fully adequate supplies of competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes.  That said, there are several factors that could change the current “low export demand” situation for the United States, including 1) the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts – such as those between Russian and Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East, and 2) the potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas due to the “El Nino transition to a La Nina” weather pattern likely to occur in the spring and/or summer of 2016.  However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other market events should occur in late 2015 or in 2016, such weather uncertainties are being treated as non-factors in current World wheat export and wheat futures markets.

Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through April 21st – the 46th week of the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat ending on May 31st – have totaled 632.4 mb, which is 81.6% of the USDA’s projected “current crop” MY 2015/16 exports of 775 mb, with 88.5% (46 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  The “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year began on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016.  United States’ wheat export shipments will need to average 23.8 mb per week through the remainder of the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s April 12th WASDE projection of 775 mb.  Total wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 17.2 mb and 16.2 mb during the weeks ending April 14th and April 21st, respectively, are behind the pace (23.8 mb/week) needed to meet even the record low USDA forecast of 775 mb in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year.  (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).

In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 101.3 mb in U.S. wheat for “current crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of April 21st), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments added up to 733.7 mb (i.e., 632.4 mb shipped plus 101.3 mb forward sales).  This amounts to 94.7% of the USDA’s projection of 775 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 88.5% of the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 46 of 52 weeks) – presenting a more positive perspective on potential U.S. wheat export sales and the likelihood of U.S. wheat exports reaching the 775 mb target set by the USDA in the April 12th WASDE report. 

Feed & Residual Use: In the 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum the USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use for “next crop” MY 2016/17 to be 200 mb, whereas in the April 12th WASDE report, the USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 140 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (down 10 mb from March).  These USDA projections or 200 mb for “next crop” MY , up from 122 mb for “old crop” MY 2014/15, down from 228 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the recent high of 365 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).  Projections by KSU of “next crop” MY 2016/17 U.S. wheat feed use are 150 mb, down from the USDA’s projection of 200 mb (Table 1).

Domestic U.S. wheat feeding had trended lower in “old crop” MY 2014/15 from the previous year, and has remained lower in “current crop” MY 2015/16 due to the availability in domestic markets of sizable 2013, 2014, and 2015 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops and supplies at low prices.  This situation has led to large competitive U.S. feedgrain supplies for domestic livestock feeding at lower market prices since MY 2012/13. 

Subsequently, over the last two U.S. wheat marketing years, there has been and continues to be lower cross-market demand for U.S. wheat in domestic livestock feed rations – causing U.S. wheat usage to be approximately 75 to 150 mb less than it otherwise would likely been if the short feedgrain supply situation of the 2012/13 and 2013/14 marketing years had continued.  In summary, sharply lower wheat prices in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are projected by the USDA which may help to encourage a modest recovery in U.S. wheat feeding – even with projections of large supplies of low cost U.S. corn and grain sorghum available.

Total U.S. Wheat Use:  Total use of U.S. wheat for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is projected by the USDA to be 2.093 bb, up from 1.948 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (lowered 10 mb in the March WASDE report), and 2.014 bb in MY 2014/15, but down from 2.436 bb in MY 2013/14.  Projected total use of wheat in “current crop” MY 2015/16 of 1.948 bb is the smallest amount of U.S. wheat total usage in the last 14 marketing years, i.e., since 1.969 bb in MY 2002/03 (Table 1 and Figure 8).  KSU projections in April 2016 for U.S. wheat total use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are for 2.043 bb, down from the USDA’s forecast of 2.093 bb (Table 1).  In the “higher U.S. wheat export” scenario (15% probability), total U.S. wheat use is projected to by 2.243 bb – based on a 200 mb increase in U.S. wheat exports (see discussion above).  

Figure 8. Trends in U.S. Wheat Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17           
as of the April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE & February 26th USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum

 

I-H. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks & % Stocks-to-Use & Prices

U.S. Ending Stocks: KSU-adjusted USDA projections of U.S. wheat ending stocks for “next crop” MY 2016/17 based on updated USDA acreage and beginning stocks forecasts equal 943 mb – which would be down from 976 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (up 10 mb from March), but up from 752 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 590 mb in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figure 8).  This USDA forecast scenario of 943 mb in U.S. wheat ending stocks in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is given a 40% probability of occurring by KSU estimates. Ending stocks of U.S. wheat in “current crop” MY 2015/16 of 976 mb is 319% of ending stocks of 306 mb in MY 2007/08 – the historic “tight stocks” marketing year since the early 1970s. 

KSU projections in April 2016 for U.S. wheat ending stocks in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are for a 30% probability of 978 mb, a 15% probability of 778 mb, and a 15% probability of 727 mb (Table 1). 

Ending Stocks-to-Use:  KSU-adjusted USDA projections of percent (%) ending stocks-to-use for U.S. wheat of 45.05% in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is down from 50.09% in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (up from 49.34% in March), but up from 37.36% in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and 24.24% in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 8 and 9).  Forecast U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use of 50.09% in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are the highest since 48.58% in MY 2009/10, and the largest since the 31 year highs during the “U.S. farm financial crisis years” of 97.2% in MY 1985/86 and 82.9% MY 1986/87.  

KSU projections in April 2016 for U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are for a 30% probability of 47.87%, a 15% probability of 34.69%, and a 15% probability of 35.58% (Table 1). 

U.S. Wheat Prices: KSU-adjusted USDA projections of U.S. average wheat prices for “next crop” MY 2016/17 equal $4.20 per bushel, down from the range of $4.90-$5.00 per bushel in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (midpoint = $4.95 /bu).  The price projection of $4.20 /bu in “next crop” MY 2016/17 would be down from $4.95 in “current crop” MY 2015/16, $5.99 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $6.87 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $7.24 in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 9 and 10). 

KSU projections in April 2016 for U.S. wheat average prices in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are for a 30% probability of $4.05 /bu, a 15% probability of $5.10, and a 15% probability of $5.00 (Table 1). 

Figure 9. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks vs U.S. Cash Prices: MY 2004/05 thru “Next Crop” MY 2016/17  as of April 12th WASDE, Feb. 26th USDA Ag Outlook Forum, March 31st Prospective Plantings, & KSU forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17

Figure 10. U.S. Wheat Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use: MY 1973/74 thru “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 as of April 12th WASDE, Feb. 26th USDA Ag Outlook Forum, and March 31st Prospective Plantings

 

II. World Wheat Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that World wheat production of 733.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 will be up 1.1% from 725.4 mmt in “old crop” 2014/15 marketing year that ended on May 31, 2015, and up 2.5% from 714.9 mmt two years ago in MY 2013/14 (Figure 11).    World wheat total supplies in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are forecast to be 947.9 mmt, up 28.6 mmt (up 3.1%) from 919.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 56.1 mmt (up 6.3%) from 891.8 mmt in MY 2013/14.  Given these increases in World wheat supplies, World wheat total use in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to increase 0.6% from “old crop” MY 2014/15, and to be up 1.5% from MY 2013/14.  World wheat ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to increase by 11.4% from a year earlier in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and by 23.4% from two years ago in MY 2013/14.  

Figure 11. World Wheat Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “Current Crop” MY 2015/16                     
as of April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE Report

 

The direction of U.S. and World wheat markets in May 2016, i.e., the remainder of “current crop” MY 2015/16, will depend primarily on market expectations of how total World wheat supplies balance with total demand, as well as on volatile World and U.S. financial and currency markets.  Wheat producing areas of the World from which periodic annual variations in wheat production historically have periodically caused significant market volatility in the last several years include a) Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the Black Sea Region, b) Australia, c) the United States, d) Canada, e) the wheat producing regions in the European Union, f) Argentina, g) India, and h) China.  Whether World wheat markets improve from current levels or not in the near or longer term will likely depend on whether production and/or export availability problems are avoided in any one or a combination of these major wheat producing and exporting areas for the remainder of 2016 and beyond.   

From the perspective of the United States, at this time the opportunity for sharp improvements in U.S. wheat export demand for the remainder of “current crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., May 2016) appear to be limited given the persistence of the high value of the U.S. dollar (although it has trended lower in recent weeks) and its negative impact on U.S. wheat export sales as the U.S. competes in World wheat export markets with other major wheat exporters.  That said, it is also possible that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and/or the Black Sea region could escalate to the point of causing disruptions and extreme price volatility in World energy and grain markets.  These large geopolitical events are near impossible to forecast accurately, but could have a major impact on World wheat and other grain markets in coming months.  Such “systematic market risks” are not being accounted for to any appreciable degree in World wheat markets at this time.

II-A. World Wheat Production by Country / Region

Projected World wheat production of 733.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 would be the largest World wheat crop on record, being up 1.1% from the previous record high of 725.4 mmt for “old crop” MY 2014/15.  This total for “current crop” MY 2015/16 of 733.1 mmt is also up 2.5% from 715.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, is larger than the “short” 658.3 mmt World wheat crop in MY 2012/13, and above the range of 612.6-696.9 mmt during the previous MY 2007/09-MY 2011/12 period (Table 2 and Figure 11).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat production is projected to be 677.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 1.0% from 670.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 3.1% from 656.8 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-B. World Wheat Exports by Country / Region

Global wheat exports in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be a 163.1 mmt, down 0.6% from 164.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and also down 1.7% from 165.9 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat exports are projected to be 142.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 0.9% from 140.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 6.1% from 133.9 mmt in MY 2013/14.  It seems that foreign wheat exports are gaining from the shortfall in U.S. wheat exports – brought on largely by the high U.S. dollar exchange rate and its negative impact on U.S. wheat exports.

II-C. World Wheat Imports by Country / Region

Global wheat imports in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 160.5 mmt, up 1.1% from 158.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 1.4% from 158.35 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 4).   Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat imports are projected to be 157.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 1.7% from 154.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 2.4% from 153.6 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-D. World Wheat Domestic Feed Use by Country / Region

Global wheat domestic feed use in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be 139.9 mmt, up 1.5% from 130.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 5.0% from 126.5 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat domestic feed use is projected to be 129.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 1.2% from 127.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 7.3% from 120.35 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-E. World Wheat Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global wheat food, seed and industrial (FSI) use in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be a 575.8 mmt, up 0.4% from 573.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 0.8% from 571.35 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat FSI use is projected to be 547.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 0.4% from 545.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 0.8% from 543.3 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-F. World Wheat Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat total use of 708.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is the highest amount on record, being up 0.6% from the previous record high of 704.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, up 1.5% from 697.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up from the range of 614.5-689.7 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2012/13 period (Table 7 and Figure 11).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat total use is projected to be 676.75 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 0.6% from 673.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 2.0% from 663.6 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-G. World Wheat Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks of 239.3 mmt for “current crop” MY 2015/16 are up 11.4% from 214.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 23.4% from 193.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and is comparable to the range of 128.7-203.2 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2012/13 period (Table 8 and Figure 11).  The 37-year low in World wheat ending stocks occurred when supply-demand balances fell to 128.7 mmt in MY 2007/08.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks are projected at 212.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 9.5% from 194.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 19.6% from 177.85 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-H. World Wheat Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks-to-use of 33.8% for “current crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 30.5% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 27.8% in MY 2013/14 (Table 9 and Figure 12).  After falling to a 38-year low in World wheat % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2007/08 (20.9% S/U), World wheat % S/U was 26.6% in MY 2008/09, 31.3% in MY 2009/10, 30.4% in MY 2010/11, 28.7% in MY 2011/12, 25.8% in MY 2012/13, 27.8% in MY 2013/14, 30.4% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and are now projected to be 33.8% in “current crop” MY 2015/16.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks-to-use are projected at 26.0% in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up from 23.9% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 22.3% in MY 2013/14. 

II-I. World Wheat Ending Stocks-to-Use vs U.S. Wheat Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average wheat prices (see Figure 10) since MY 1973/74, a negatively correlated market relationship has existed between U.S. wheat season average cash prices and World wheat % ending stocks-to-use – with what may prove to have been an upward structural adjustment or “jump” during the MY 2011/12  ̶  MY 2012/13 time period (Figure 12).  Larger World wheat supply-demand balances (i.e., higher percentages of ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower World and U.S. wheat prices, while smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher World and U.S. wheat prices – all else being equal. 

As in Figure 10 earlier, U.S. wheat prices in Figure 12 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).   Whereas the minimum U.S. wheat percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 13.2% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 2007/08, the historic minimum in World wheat percent stocks-to-use occurred in that same marketing year at 20.9%.  World stocks-to-use have not fallen below 25.8% in MY 2012/13 since the MY 2007/08 low.

During the three most recent marketing years, rising World wheat percent ending stocks-to-use levels have been associated with declining U.S. wheat prices.  In MY 2013/14, World % ending stocks-to-use of 27.8% were associated with $6.87 /bu U.S. wheat prices. Then in “old crop” MY 2014/15, World % ending stocks-to-use of 30.4% were associated with $5.99 /bu U.S. wheat prices.  Now in “current crop” MY 2015/16, World % ending stocks-to-use of 33.8% are associated with $4.95 /bu U.S. wheat prices.  In summary, since MY 2013/14 as World % ending stocks-to-use has increased from 27.8% to 30.5% to 33.8% (up 21.6%, i.e., 0.338 / 0.278).  Conversely, U.S. wheat prices have fallen from $6.87 /bu to $5.99 and $4.95 /bu (down 27.9%) before considering U.S. currency exchange rate or inflation adjustments.

If the USDA’s February 25-26, 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum projection of U.S. Wheat average cash prices of $4.20 /bu holds true for “next crop” MY 2016/17, it implies that World wheat percent ending stocks-to-use for that same future period would be approximately 35.0% - up from 33.8% in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (Figure 12).  

Figure 12. U.S. Wheat Price vs % World Stocks-to-Use: MY 1973/74 through Implicit “Next Crop” MY 2016/17, as of April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE Report     


Table 2. World Wheat Production Projections for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16, MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Wheat Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Production: Current crop 2015/16    April 2016

Wheat Production: March 2016 Current crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Production:               April Less March 2016                    

Current crop 2015/16 Production:                Percent (%)         April of March 2016

April Wheat Production: 2014/15          

March  Wheat Production: 2014/15

April Less March  Wheat  Production             for 2014/15

Current crop 2015/16 Production             Less 2014/15

% Current crop 2015/16 Production of                         2014/15

Wheat Production: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Production             Less 2013/14

% Current crop 2015/16 Production       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

733.14

732.32

0.82

100.1%

725.44

725.47

(0.03)

7.70

101.1%

714.92

18.22

102.5%

United States

55.84

55.84

0.00

100.0%

55.15

55.15

0.00

0.69

101.3%

58.11

(2.27)

96.1%

Total Foreign

677.30

676.48

0.82

100.1%

670.29

670.32

(0.03)

7.01

101.0%

656.82

20.48

103.1%

Major Exporters

223.40

221.56

1.84

100.8%

221.82

221.65

0.17

1.58

100.7%

217.92

5.48

102.5%

Argentina

11.30

11.00

0.30

102.7%

12.50

12.50

0.00

(1.20)

90.4%

10.50

0.80

107.6%

Australia

24.50

24.50

0.00

100.0%

23.08

23.08

0.00

1.42

106.2%

25.30

(0.80)

96.8%

Canada

27.60

27.60

0.00

100.0%

29.42

29.42

0.00

(1.82)

93.8%

37.53

(9.93)

73.5%

European Union

160.00

158.46

1.54

101.0%

156.83

156.66

0.17

3.17

102.0%

114.59

45.41

139.6%

Major Importers

203.33

203.82

(0.49)

99.8%

197.40

196.99

0.41

5.93

103.0%

194.24

9.09

104.7%

Brazil

5.54

5.54

0.00

100.0%

6.00

6.00

0.00

(0.46)

92.3%

5.30

0.24

104.5%

China

130.19

130.19

0.00

100.0%

126.21

126.21

0.00

3.98

103.2%

121.93

8.26

106.8%

Selected Middle East

17.83

17.86

(0.03)

99.8%

17.66

17.37

0.29

0.17

101.0%

18.96

(1.13)

94.0%

North Africa

19.91

20.00

(0.09)

99.6%

17.01

16.90

0.11

2.90

117.0%

19.66

0.25

101.3%

Pakistan

25.10

25.48

(0.38)

98.5%

25.98

25.98

0.00

(0.88)

96.6%

24.21

0.89

103.7%

Southeast Asia

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

India

86.53

86.53

0.00

100.0%

95.85

95.85

0.00

(9.32)

90.3%

93.51

(6.98)

92.5%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

117.60

117.53

0.07

100.1%

112.74

112.75

(0.01)

4.86

104.3%

103.89

13.71

113.2%

Russia

61.04

61.00

0.04

100.1%

59.08

59.08

0.00

1.96

103.3%

52.09

8.95

117.2%

Kazakhstan

13.75

13.75

0.00

100.0%

13.00

13.00

0.00

0.75

105.8%

13.94

(0.19)

98.6%

Ukraine

27.27

27.25

0.02

100.1%

24.75

24.75

0.00

2.52

110.2%

22.28

4.99

122.4%

Other FSU 12 Countries

15.54

15.53

0.01

100.1%

15.91

15.92

-0.01

-0.37

97.7%

15.58

-0.04

99.7%

Table 3. World Wheat Export Projections for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16, MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Wheat Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Exports: Current crop 2015/16     April 2016

Wheat Exports: April  2014 Current crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Exports:               April Less March 2016                    

Current crop 2015/16 Exports:                Percent (%)         April of March 2016

April Wheat Exports: 2014/15          

March  Wheat Exports: 2014/15

April Less March Wheat  Exports for 2014/15

Current crop 2015/16 Exports Less 2014/15

% Current crop 2015/16 Exports of 2014/15

Wheat Exports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Exports Less 2013/14

% Current crop 2015/16 Exports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

163.13

162.73

0.40

100.2%

164.07

164.15

(0.08)

(0.94)

99.4%

165.90

(2.77)

98.3%

United States

21.09

21.09

0.00

100.0%

23.25

23.25

0.00

(2.16)

90.7%

32.00

(10.91)

65.9%

Total Foreign

142.04

141.64

0.40

100.3%

140.82

140.89

(0.07)

1.22

100.9%

133.90

8.14

106.1%

Major Exporters

78.50

78.50

0.00

100.0%

81.42

81.44

(0.02)

(2.92)

96.4%

76.17

2.33

103.1%

Argentina

7.50

7.00

0.50

107.1%

5.30

5.30

0.00

2.20

141.5%

2.25

5.25

333.3%

Australia

17.00

17.00

0.00

100.0%

16.59

16.61

(0.02)

0.41

102.5%

18.62

(1.62)

91.3%

Canada

22.00

22.00

0.00

100.0%

24.11

24.12

(0.01)

(2.11)

91.2%

23.27

(1.27)

94.5%

European Union

32.00

32.50

(0.50)

98.5%

35.42

35.42

0.00

(3.42)

90.3%

32.03

(0.03)

99.9%

Major Importers

6.61

7.01

(0.40)

94.3%

7.64

7.65

(0.01)

(1.03)

86.5%

5.17

1.44

127.9%

Brazil

1.30

1.30

0.00

100.0%

1.69

1.69

0.00

(0.39)

76.9%

0.08

1.22

1625.0%

China

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

0.80

0.80

0.00

0.20

125.0%

0.89

0.11

112.4%

Selected Middle East

0.53

0.83

(0.30)

63.9%

1.52

1.52

0.00

(0.99)

34.9%

0.50

0.03

106.0%

North Africa

0.85

0.85

0.00

100.0%

0.61

0.61

0.00

0.24

139.3%

0.47

0.38

180.9%

Pakistan

0.70

0.70

0.00

100.0%

0.70

0.70

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.75

(0.05)

93.3%

Southeast Asia

0.60

0.96

(0.36)

62.5%

0.95

0.96

(0.01)

(0.35)

63.2%

0.89

(0.29)

67.4%

India

0.96

0.96

0.00

100.0%

3.41

3.40

0.01

(2.45)

28.2%

6.05

(5.09)

15.9%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

46.36

45.86

0.50

101.1%

40.22

40.22

0.00

6.14

115.3%

37.19

9.17

124.7%

Russia

23.00

23.00

0.00

100.0%

22.80

22.80

0.00

0.20

100.9%

18.61

4.39

123.6%

Kazakhstan

7.00

6.50

0.50

107.7%

5.54

5.54

0.00

1.46

126.4%

8.10

(1.10)

86.4%

Ukraine

15.50

15.50

0.00

100.0%

11.27

11.27

0.00

4.23

137.5%

9.76

5.74

158.8%

Other FSU 12 Countries

0.86

0.86

0.00

100.0%

0.61

0.61

0.00

0.25

141.0%

0.72

0.14

119.4%

Table 4. World Wheat Import Projections for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16, MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Wheat Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Imports: Current crop 2015/16     April 2016

Wheat Imports: March  2014 Current crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Imports:               April Less March 2016                    

Current crop 2015/16 Imports:                Percent (%)         April of March 2016

April Wheat Imports: 2014/15          

March  Wheat Imports: 2014/15

April Less March Wheat  Imports for 2014/15

Current crop 2015/16 Imports Less 2014/15

% Current crop 2015/16 Imports of 2014/15

Wheat Imports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Imports             Less 2013/14

% Current crop 2015/16 Imports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

160.54

160.34

0.20

100.1%

158.78

158.76

0.02

1.76

101.1%

158.35

2.19

101.4%

United States

3.27

3.27

0.00

100.0%

4.07

4.07

0.00

(0.80)

80.3%

4.71

(1.44)

69.4%

Total Foreign

157.28

157.08

0.20

100.1%

154.71

154.69

0.02

2.57

101.7%

153.64

3.64

102.4%

Major Exporters

6.97

6.97

0.00

100.0%

6.67

6.65

0.02

0.30

104.5%

4.59

2.38

151.9%

Argentina

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.04

0.04

0.00

(0.01)

75.0%

0.00

0.03

#DIV/0!

Australia

0.15

0.15

0.00

100.0%

0.16

0.16

0.00

(0.01)

93.8%

0.16

(0.01)

93.8%

Canada

0.49

0.49

0.00

100.0%

0.50

0.48

0.02

(0.01)

98.0%

0.46

0.03

106.5%

European Union

6.30

6.30

0.00

100.0%

5.98

5.98

0.00

0.32

105.4%

3.98

2.32

158.3%

Major Importers

84.47

84.27

0.20

100.2%

84.70

84.72

(0.02)

(0.23)

99.7%

87.32

(2.85)

96.7%

Brazil

6.00

6.50

(0.50)

92.3%

5.37

5.37

0.00

0.63

111.7%

7.07

(1.07)

84.9%

China

3.00

2.50

0.50

120.0%

1.93

1.93

0.00

1.07

155.4%

6.77

(3.77)

44.3%

Selected Middle East

19.35

19.85

(0.50)

97.5%

21.26

21.26

0.00

(1.91)

91.0%

20.73

(1.38)

93.3%

North Africa

25.50

25.10

0.40

101.6%

25.19

25.18

0.01

0.31

101.2%

25.22

0.28

101.1%

Pakistan

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.74

0.75

(0.01)

(0.64)

13.5%

0.39

(0.29)

25.6%

Southeast Asia

20.43

20.13

0.30

101.5%

19.85

19.91

(0.06)

0.58

102.9%

16.39

4.04

124.6%

India

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.05

0.00

0.45

1000.0%

0.03

0.47

1666.7%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

7.69

7.69

0.00

100.0%

7.68

7.67

0.01

0.01

100.1%

7.47

0.22

102.9%

Russia

0.70

0.70

0.00

100.0%

0.33

0.33

0.00

0.37

212.1%

0.86

(0.16)

81.4%

Kazakhstan

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.60

0.60

0.00

(0.52)

13.3%

0.01

0.07

800.0%

Ukraine

0.05

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.02

166.7%

0.07

(0.02)

71.4%

Other FSU 12 Countries

6.86

6.86

0.00

100.0%

6.72

6.71

0.01

0.14

102.1%

6.53

0.33

105.1%

Table 5. World Wheat Feed Use Projections for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16, MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Wheat Feed Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Feed Use: Current crop 2015/16     April 2016

Wheat Feed Use: March 2016 Current crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Feed Use: April Less March 2016                    

Current crop 2015/16 Feed Use: Percent (%)         April of March 2016

April Wheat Feed Use: 2014/15          

March  Wheat Feed Use: 2014/15

April Less March Wheat  Feed Use for 2014/15

Current crop 2015/16 Feed Use Less 2014/15

% Current crop 2015/16 Feed Use of 2014/15

Wheat Feed Use: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Feed Use             Less 2013/14

% Current crop 2015/16 Feed Use of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

 

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

132.92

133.49

(0.57)

99.6%

130.94

131.76

(0.82)

1.98

101.5%

126.54

6.38

105.0%

United States

3.81

4.08

(0.27)

93.4%

3.33

3.33

0.00

0.48

114.4%

6.20

(2.39)

61.5%

Total Foreign

129.11

129.41

(0.30)

99.8%