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Grain Market Outlook

Wheat Market Outlook in Mid-March 2014  

March 20, 2014


Summary

When the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on March 10, 2014, U.S. wheat market prices initially responded negatively before moving higher in the succeeding week.  The USDA made no changes in its projections of “current” 2013/14 marketing year supply-demand projections for U.S. wheat, but did make a marginal increase in its projection for U.S. wheat average prices.  A mixture of factors are impacting prospects for U.S. and World wheat prices in the coming calendar year.  These include a) an expectation of at least moderately lower supplies of U.S. wheat in the “next crop” MY 2014/15 marketing year, b) growing quantities of competitive, exportable foreign wheat supplies likely to be available in coming months – absent continuing or spreading geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea Region, c) the likelihood of a “weaker-to-moderating” pace of U.S. wheat exports in coming months – should no major foreign wheat production threats materialize, and d) more abundant supplies of U.S. corn and grain sorghum supplies in 2014 “hanging over the market” and limiting U.S. and foreign wheat feeding. 

USDA U.S. Wheat “Current” MY 2013/14:  Based on projections from the Feb. 21 USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference, with small adjustments made in the beginning stocks estimate, forecast 2014 U.S. wheat production and “next crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand and price scenarios are: 55.5 ma planted, 47.2 ma harvested, 45.8 bu/ac yields, a 2.160 bb 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 2.281 bb total use, 587 million bushels (mb) ending stocks, 25.7% S/U, & $5.30 average price per bu.  The price forecast of $5.30 /bushel seems to be “overly pessimistic” given the uncertainty in U.S. and World supply-demand prospects.   If “new crop” 2014 U.S. winter wheat production prospects remain poor in late March-April as the crop breaks dormancy in the spring period – possibly due to dry conditions, damage from cold temperatures, widespread disease issues, a late killing frost, etc. – U.S. wheat market prices will find the impetus to respond by moving sharply higher.

KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of “next crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand balances and prices are as follows:  a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 55% prob. of 56.3 million acres (ma) planted, 47.4 ma harvested, trend yields of 45.8 bu/ac, 2.171 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.889 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 1.175 bb exports, 150 mb wheat fed, 2.359 bb total use, 530 mb ending stocks, 22.5% S/U, & $7.10 /bu;  b) “Low Production” Scenario: 35% prob. of 55.3 ma planted, 46.6 ma harvested, low yields of 39.0 bu/ac, 1.817 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.555 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 1.000 bb exports, 100 mb wheat fed, 2.129 bb total use, 426 mb ending stocks, 20.0% S/U, & $8.25 /bu;  and c) “High Production” Scenario: 10% prob. of 56.3 ma planted, 48.3 ma harvested, record high yields of 47.5 bu/ac, 2.294 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.992 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 1.200 bb exports, 160 mb wheat fed, 2.399 bb total use, 593 mb ending stocks, 24.7% S/U, & $6.60 /bu. 

USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 889 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14 are up from 855 mmt “last year’s” MY 2012/13, but down from 896 mmt in MY 2011/12.  Projected World wheat ending stocks in “current” MY 2013/14 of 183.8 mmt (26.1% S/U) are up from 175.9 mmt (25.9% S/U) in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, but down from 198.9 mmt (28.5% S/U) in MY 2011/12.  The recent historic World wheat stocks minimum of 129.6 mmt (21.1% S/U) occurred in MY 2007/08.  Exports from nearly all of the U.S.’ major World wheat trade competitors are projected to be higher in “current” MY 2013/14 than a year ago.  This list of export competitors with improved sales prospects includes Australia, Canada, the European Union, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.  Should threats to U.S. and World wheat markets subside, then the fact remains that large supplies of wheat are available from foreign wheat export competitors – which could still remain as a potential challenge for U.S. wheat exports and prices later in 2014.

I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook

I-A. March 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees for Wheat, Feedgrains, Rice and Oilseeds released their GRAINS AND OILSEEDS OUTLOOK FOR 2014 at the 2014 Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday, February 21st.  This is the first formal USDA projection of U.S. wheat supply-demand factors and prices for the 2014/15 marketing year based on current 2014 market information.  The USDA had released 10 year Agricultural Baseline projections on February 13th that included a projection for the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with future U.S. grain supply-demand and price projections through MY 2023/24.  However, those initial baseline estimates were based on grain market information available in November 2013, and were adjusted by the USDA in its February 21st Agricultural Outlook Conference projections.

On March 10, 2014 the USDA released its monthly March 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing information of importance to U.S. wheat market price prospects.   The USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its monthly March Crop Production report which contained no changes in projected production of U.S. wheat for 2013 or previous years.  If it follows past methods, the USDA will not make further adjustments in its projection for U.S. wheat supply-demand and prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 until it releases the September 30th NASS Small Grains Summary report

However, grain market information concerning a) “current” MY 2013/14 U.S. wheat usage, ending stocks, and prices, and b) foreign grain supply-demand prospects, has an impact on prospects for U.S. wheat supply-demand and prices during the “next year” 2014/15 marketing year.  That said, in this article the USDA’s U.S. wheat supply-demand and price prospects for the coming “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year were not adjusted because of the lack of changes the supply-demand balance sheet in “current” MY 2013/14 in the March 10th WASDE report.   

I-B. Kansas City Wheat Futures Trends Since the March 10th USDA Reports

Wheat futures contract prices have been trending sharply higher since late January due to a) geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea Region between Ukraine and Russia that could hinder or diminish that region’s wheat and coarse grains exports - and ultimately boost U.S. wheat export prospects, and b) declining U.S. hard and soft red winter wheat production prospects.  Although the information in the March WASDE report on U.S. and foreign wheat supply-demand prospects was largely neutral to the market, these other factors have influenced wheat market prices in recent weeks.   

“Current” or “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) MAY 2014 Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat efutures prices have been trending up since a low of $6.05 per bushel on Thursday, January 30th.  On Monday, March 10th – the day of the March USDA WASDE report – MAY 2014 KC wheat futures opened trade at $7.21 per bushel, and traded in a low-high range of $7.09 to $7.25 during the session before closing down $0.10 per bushel over the previous day’s close at $7.11 ¼ /bu (Figure 1).  Since then MAY 2014 KC Wheat futures prices have traded in the range of a low of $7.07 on March 11th, up to a high of $7.91 ¾ on Wednesday, March 19th – closing near the high end of this range at $7.88 ¼ that same day. 

“Next crop” or “new crop” JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices also initially responded negatively to the information in the March 10th USDA reports.  JULY 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices opened at $7.14 ½ on March 10th, and traded in a low-high range of $7.02 ¼ to $7.18 ¼ during the session before closing $0.10 ½ lower at $7.04 ½ /bu (Figure 1).   Since then JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat efutures prices have traded in the range of a low of $7.01 ¼ on February 11th up to a high of $7.86 ½ on March 19th, before closing at $7.83 on that same trading day.  Electronic July 2014 Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat futures prices have been trending sharply higher since a low of $5.99 on January 29th.

Figure 1. MAY 2014 & JULY 2014 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

Text Box: “New Crop”
JULY 2014 
CBOT eKC-Wheat
Close = $7.83 
on Wed., Mar. 19

Text Box: “Old Crop”
MAY 2014 
CBOT eKC-Wheat
Close = $7.88 ¼  
on Wed., Mar. 19

    

I-D. U.S. Wheat Production

U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production

In its February 21st Agricultural Outlook Conference, the USDA projected that 55.5 million acres (ma) of wheat would be planted in the U.S. in 2014, down from 56.156 ma in 2013 and 55.666 ma in 2012, but up from 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1-2).   Conversely, projected 2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage was projected to be 47.2 ma, up from 45.157 ma in 2013, down from 48.921 ma in 2012, and up from 45.705 ma in 2011.  

The reason that forecast U.S. wheat harvested acreage is higher in 2014 even though planted acreage is expected to be down from the previous year is because of an expected return to a normal harvested-to-planted acreage relationship.  The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 85.0%, up sharply from 80.4% in 2013, down from 87.9% in 2012, and up from 84.0% in 2011.  The proportion of harvested-to-planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.4% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.

Projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 45.8 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is down from the record high of 47.2 bu/ac in 2013, less than the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010, but above 43.7 bu/ac in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3).   The USDA projected of 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 2.160 billion bushels (bb) – which is comparable to 2.130 bb in 2013 and 2.266 bb in 2012, while being up from 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).   

U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage by Class for 2014

In its January 10th Winter Wheat Seedings report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage seeded in the fall of 2013 for harvest in 2014 to be 41.892 million acres (ma) – down from 43.090 ma in 2013, but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1).  The USDA’s February 21st projection of 55.5 ma of U.S. wheat planted implicitly uses the January 10th Winter Wheat Seedings report estimate of 41.892 ma, along with assumptions about 2014 U.S. other spring and durum wheat acreage.  If the USDA assumed 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage was equal to 2013-levels of 11.6 ma, then 2014 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage would be approximately 2.0 ma.  The USDA’s estimate of 2013 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage to 11.596 ma is down from both 12.289 ma in 2012, and 12.394 ma in 2011.  The USDA’s estimate of 2013 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage to 1.470 ma is down from 2.153 ma in 2012, but up from 1.369 ma in 2011.  The USDA has made no formal public projections of 2014 harvested acreage or yields for U.S. winter, other spring or durum wheat classes.

I-E. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies

At the 2014 Agricultural Outlook Conference, the USDA projected that total supplies of U.S. wheat for “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be 2.868 bb, are projected to be 3.018 bb – down from 3.131 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, but up from 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12.  Total supplies of 2.868 bb resulted from beginning stocks of 558 mb, projected 2014 production of 2.160 bb, and projected imports of 150 mb (Table 1). 

Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 558 mb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be down 22.3% from 718 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, and from 743 mb in MY 2013/14 – down to the lowest level since 306 mb in MY 2008/09.  This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into the upcoming marketing year illustrates the steadily increasing tightness of U.S. wheat supplies that has occurred over the last four marketing years (since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976 mb in MY 2010/11).  

Projected U.S. wheat imports of 150 mb for “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be the second highest amount on record, down from the record high of 170 mb in “current” MY 2013/14.  The next highest amounts since MY 1973/74 have been a) 127 mb in MY 2008/09, b) 123 mb in MY 2012/13, c) 122 mb in MY 2006/07, and 119 mb in MY 2009/10.  Record large 2013 Canadian wheat production of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) has an impact on U.S. wheat imports. The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.098 mmt), 1991 (31.946 mmt), and 1986 (31.359 mmt).  

Projected total supplies of 2.868 bb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be the smallest amount in seven (7) years, compared to 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.932 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.131 bb in MY 2012/13, and 3.018 bb in “current” MY 2013/14. 

I-F. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category

Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 960 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 is up 10 mb from January, and up from both 945 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  The USDA forecast U.S. wheat food use of approximately 965 mb for “next year” MY 2014/15 at the February 21st 2014 USDA Agricultural Outlook conference, extending the “population growth trend” driven inelastic demand for U.S. wheat food usage.

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 74 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 is up from 73 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and down from 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  The USDA forecast U.S. wheat seed use of approximately 76 mb for “next year” MY 2014/15 at the February 21st 2014 USDA Agricultural Outlook conference, extending the relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed – driven primarily by that amount of U.S. wheat seeded acreage. 

Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 1.175 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 are up 50 mb from January-February, and up 75 mb from the December 2013 WASDE.  This amount of exports is also up from both 1.007 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

On March 6th cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments for the “current” 2013/14 marketing year totaled 862.9 mb, 73.4% of projected “current” MY 2013/14 exports of 1.175 bb with 84.6% (44 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  United States’ export shipments will need to average 39.0 mb per week through the remainder of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year to attain the USDA’s March WASDE projection of 1.175 bb.  Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 23.5 mb and 16.7 mb occurred during the weeks ending February 27th and March 6th, respectively, were “behind pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.175 bb in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.  (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).

However, accounting for additional unshipped forward export sales of 206.1 mb in U.S. wheat for “current” MY 2013/14 that had not yet been shipped as of March 6th, total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments added up to 1.069 bb (i.e., 862.9 mb shipped plus 206.1 mb forward sales with rounding) for “current” MY 2013/14.  This amounts to 91.0% of the USDA’s projection of 1.175 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 with 84.6% of the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 44 of 52 weeks). 

 Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 190 mb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 at the February 21st Agricultural Outlook Conference, down from 250 mb for “current” MY 2013/14, from the recent high of 388 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, while being up from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Domestic U.S. wheat feeding has declined largely due to sizable 2013 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – leading to more abundant U.S. feedgrain supplies at lower market prices than during “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and subsequently to lower cross-market demand for U.S. wheat in livestock feed rations – in either domestic or foreign markets.

Total U.S. Wheat Use:  Summing the categories together, total use of U.S. wheat for “next crop” MY 2014/15 was projected to be 2.281 bb by the USDA at its 2014 Agricultural Outlook Conference (Table 1 and Figure 4).  U.S. wheat total use of 2.281 bb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be the 2nd largest amount of U.S. wheat usage over the last eight (8) years, compared to 2.314 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.275 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.018 bb in MY 2009/10, 2.417 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.231 bb in MY 2011/12, the 2nd largest amount during the 8 year period – 2.414 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and the largest amount in this period of 2.459 bb in “current” MY 2013/14.  Total usage of U.S. wheat in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and “current” MY 2013/14 were boosted by higher than usual livestock feeding of wheat in reaction to extremely tight U.S. corn and grain sorghum supplies and substitutionary demand for U.S. wheat feeding.

I-G. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks, % Stocks-to-Use, and Prices

United States’ wheat ending stocks for the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year were projected to be 587 mb by the USDA at its 2014 Agricultural Outlook conference (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Projected ending stocks of 587 mb for the next marketing year are still uncertain, but at this time are projected to be larger than 558 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, and larger than 306 mb in MY 2007/08 – the historic “tight stocks” marketing year.  But they are less than occurred each year in between, i.e., less than 657 mb in MY 2008/09, 976 mb in MY 2009/10, 862 in MY 2010/11, 743 mb in MY 2011/12, and 718 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.  In MY 2007/08 U.S. wheat supply-demand balances were at their lowest levels in 66 years, i.e., since just after World War II. 

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use for U.S. wheat of 25.7% in “next crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 22.7% in “current” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).  This projection of U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use would be the second lowest in the last seven (7) years, and is comparable to the historic 66 year low of 13.2% in MY 2007/08, 28.9% in MY 2008/09, 48.4% in MY 2009/10, 35.7% in MY 2010/11, 33.3% in MY 2011/12, and 29.7% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and now the February-March 2014 projection of 22.7% for the “current” 2013/14 marketing year. 

U.S. average wheat prices for “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be in the range of $6.75-$6.95 /bu (midpoint = $6.85), being raised by $0.10 /bu on each end of the forecast range than the above the February WASDE projection, but still down marginally from the December 2013 WASDE forecast range and midpoint of $6.65-$7.15 /bu and $6.90, respectively, for the current marketing year.  This projection of $6.75-$6.95 /bu for “current” MY 2013/14 is down from the record high of $7.77 / bu in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 2 and Figures 5-6).  Since and including the record tight U.S. and World wheat ending stocks marketing year of 2007/08, U.S. wheat prices have varied in the following manner over time: $6.48 per bushel in MY 2007/08, $6.78 in MY 2008/09, $4.87 in MY 2009/10, $5.70 in MY 2010/11, $7.24 in MY 2011/12, $7.77 in MY 2012/13, and now the range and midpoint projection of $6.75-$6.95 ($6.85) /bu in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year. 

In its February 21st Agricultural Outlook conference, the USDA projected that U.S. wheat prices will fall sharply in “next crop” MY 2014/15 marketing year, down to $5.30 per bushel.  This forecast is subject to change given current happenings in international wheat trade and ongoing threats to 2014 U.S. wheat production prospects.

An indicator of inflation that has occurred in U.S. wheat prices is found by comparing the situation in the historical “tight stocks” year of MY 2007/08 with the “current” MY 2013/14.  In MY 2007/08, U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use were a record low 13.2% with an average U.S. wheat price of $6.48 per bushel – at that time a record high.  In comparison, in “current” MY 2013/14 U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be higher at 22.7%, but with U.S. wheat prices being at least moderately higher as well in the range of $6.75-6.95 per bushel (midpoint = $6.85 /bu).    

I-H. Comments on Wheat Market Prospects

Strong U.S. wheat exports on the one hand and strong demand for wheat feeding through June-November had provided support for U.S. wheat prices in the first half of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year (June through November).   However, with large 2013 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops and markedly lower U.S. feedgrain prices at fall harvest, wheat prices have lost the degree of cross feedgrain market arbitrage support that they had over the 2011/12 through 2012/13 marketing years. 

In addition, exports from nearly all of the U.S.’ major World wheat trade competitors are projected to be higher in “current” MY 2013/14 than a year ago.  This list of export competitors with improved sales prospects includes Australia, Canada, the European Union, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.  The March 2014 USDA projections of foreign exports may not account for the threat to World wheat export markets from geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea Region, or the tendency for export buyers to “secure supplies” should potential 2014 wheat production threats come to fruition in the U.S. central and southern plains, parts of Australia, and elsewhere in World wheat production areas. 

Recapping what was stated above in the discussion of U.S. wheat export prospects, so far in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year (June 1, 2013 through May 31, 2014), the pace of U.S. wheat export shipments have been behind that needed to meet current USDA projections.  The U.S. has shipped 862.9 mb of wheat in MY 2013/14 – 73.4% of the USDA’s MY 2013/14 projection of 1.175 bb with 84.6% (44 of 52 weeks) completed (see the discussion of U.S. wheat exports above).  However, when combined shipments and forward sales for MY 2013/14 care considered, total U.S. wheat export commitments equal 1.069 bb, i.e., 91.0% of the USDA’s 1.175 bb forecast for MY 2013/14 with 84.6% of the marketing year completed.   This information reinforces the point that U.S. wheat export shipments and especially forward sales have been impacted and supported in the last month by the factors stated, with U.S. and World wheat prices being supported as a result. 

Should these threats to U.S. and World wheat markets not come to fruition and/or subside, then the fact that large amounts of available, competitively priced supplies of wheat are available from foreign wheat export competitors – which under normal circumstances (or a return to them), could still remain as a potential challenge for U.S. wheat exports and prices late in 2014.   

In summary, a mixture of factors are impacting prospects for U.S. and World wheat prices in the coming calendar year.  These include a) an expectation of at least moderately lower supplies of U.S. wheat in the “next crop” MY 2014/15 marketing year, b) growing quantities of competitive, exportable foreign wheat supplies likely to be available in coming months – absent continuing or spreading geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea Region, c) the likelihood of a “weaker-to-moderating” pace of U.S. wheat exports in coming months – should no major foreign wheat production threats materialize, and d) more abundant supplies of U.S. corn and grain sorghum supplies in 2014 “hanging over the market” and limiting U.S. and foreign wheat feeding. 

On balance, the February 21st USDA Agricultural Outlook conference forecast of $5.30 /bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. wheat price seems to be “overly pessimistic” given the uncertainty in U.S. and World supply-demand prospects.   In addition, if “new crop” 2014 U.S. winter wheat production prospects turn or remain poor in late March-April as the crop breaks dormancy in the spring period – possibly due to dry conditions, damage from cold temperatures, widespread disease issues, a late killing frost, etc. – U.S. wheat market prices would find the impetus to respond by moving sharply higher.

I-I. KSU U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

These early 2014 projections by Kansas State University of U.S. wheat production and U.S. wheat supply-demand balances and prices for the “coming” or “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year reveal the importance of planted and harvested acreage, yields, beginning stocks, export and feed use prospects will have on wheat markets in the coming year.   As of March 20, 2014 some information is already available from the USDA about U.S. winter wheat planted acreage for the coming year, and in regards to the USDA’s February 21st Agricultural Outlook Conference supply-demand and price projections.  There are still an array of possible U.S. wheat production, supply-demand balance, and price outcomes for the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year.   

Just as for corn and soybeans, in recent years there has been a tendency for early season projections of U.S. wheat production by the USDA, private industry analysts, and University Extension Grain Marketing Specialists to be for “full production”, i.e., assuming trend line U.S. wheat yields or better and generally large-sized crops.  That said, with the annual availability of January USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report information, the USDA has more and higher quality information about winter wheat acreage and production prospects than it has in January-early February for other major U.S. field crops.  The USDA’s “next crop” MY 2014/15 projection from the February 21st 2014 Agricultural Outlook Conference is provided in Table 1

KSU Probability-Based Projections U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand & Price Scenarios for MY 2014/15

KSU projections of 2014 U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage for alternative production scenarios are found in Table 1 and Figure 5.   Projections of U.S. wheat planted acres are combining information from the recent USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report along with the same U.S. planted acreage for other spring wheat and durum wheat as in 2013.  Projections of 2014 U.S. wheat yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. wheat average prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 that are based on projections of U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use are provided Table 1 and Figures 5-6

Three probability-weighted KSU U.S. wheat supply-demand and price scenarios for “next crop” MY 2014/15 are shown below.  

1.      “Likely Production” Scenario: Trend Yields on 56.3 Million Acres Planted – 55% Probability

In this “likely production” outcome scenario, it is estimated that there is a 55% chance of U.S. wheat acreage, yields, production, and supply-demand balances following somewhat consistently with planted acreage in the January 2014 USDA Winter Wheat Seedings Report; that long term simple trend line U.S. wheat yields, beginning stocks for “next crop” MY 2014/15 equal to current USDA projections of ending stocks for “current” MY 2013/14; and that forecast “next crop” MY 2014/15 wheat usage is somewhat consistent with that in “current” MY 2013/14 (Table 1). 

With 2014 U.S. wheat planted acres of 56.3 million acres (ma), harvested acres of 47.4 ma, 2014 U.S. trend yields of 45.8 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. wheat production of 2.171 bb, “next crop year” MY 2014/15 total supplies equaling 2.889 bb, exports of 1.175 bb, U.S. wheat total usage of 2.359 bb, ending stocks of 530 mb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 22.5%, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $6.60-$7.60 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $7.10). 

2.      “Low Production” Scenario: Low Yields on 55.3 Million Acres Planted – 35% Probability

In this “low production” outcome scenario, it is estimated that there is a 35% chance of approximately 1 million less planted acres than projected in the “likely production scenario”, combined with historically low U.S. wheat yields, beginning stocks for “next crop” MY 2014/15 equal to current USDA projections of ending stocks for “current” MY 2013/14, with usage of wheat adjusted lower than the “likely production” in “next crop” MY 2014/15 scenario due to lower available supplies (Table 1). 

With 2014 U.S. wheat planted acres of 55.3 million acres (ma), harvested acres of 46.6 ma, 2014 U.S. wheat yields of 39.0 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. wheat production of 1.817 bb, “next crop year” MY 2014/15 total supplies equaling 2.555 bb, exports of 1.000 bb, U.S. wheat total usage of 2.129 bb, ending stocks of 426 mb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 20.0%, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $7.75-$8.75 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $8.25). 

3.      “High Production” Scenario: High Yields on 57.3 Million Acres Planted – 10% Probability

In this “high production” outcome scenario, it is estimated that there is a 10% chance yields, beginning stocks for “next crop” MY 2014/15 equal to current USDA projections of ending stocks for “current” MY 2013/14, with usage of wheat adjusted higher than the “likely production” scenario due to approximately 1 million more planted acres (Table 1). 

With 2014 U.S. wheat planted acres of 57.3 million acres (ma), harvested acres of 48.3 ma, 2014 U.S. wheat yields of a record high 47.5 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. wheat production of 2.294 bb, “next crop” MY 2014/15 total supplies equaling 2.992 bb, exports of 1.200 bb, U.S. wheat total usage of 2.399 bb, ending stocks of 593 mb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 24.7%, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $6.10-$7.10 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $6.60). 

II. World Wheat Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that World wheat production will increase 8.6% in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year over a year ago, i.e., “last year’s” MY 2012/13.  With increased available World wheat total supplies (up 3.9%), World wheat total use is projected to increase by 3.7% in “current” MY 2013/14 over the previous year.  With larger expected “current” MY 2013/14 World wheat supplies and projected wheat trade, prospects for markedly higher wheat market prices seem to be limited – absent any major 2014 wheat production shortfalls or other unanticipated geopolitical conflicts or economic problems among major world wheat producers and exporters. 

Wheat producing areas of the World whose varying production has had a notable impact on wheat markets in the last several years include Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea Region, Australia, North America (United States and Canada), European Union, and China.  Even though markets seem at this time not to be focusing on or aware of possible production problems in these areas, this year as in every other year the potential exists for production and/or supply problems to develop of a magnitude that World wheat markets could be impacted in 2014 and 2015.  In the United States the next major wheat production concern will likely be the condition and production potential of the 2014 Hard Red Winter wheat crop in the U.S. central and southern plains as the crop breaks dormancy in March-April 2014.   

II-A. World Wheat Production by Country / Region

Projected World wheat production of 712.7 mmt for “current” MY 2013/14 is up 0.1% from February and is a record high.  This amount of production in the “current” marketing year is up 8.6% from 656.4 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and is also up 2.2% from the 2nd largest crop on record of 697.3 mmt in MY 2011/12.  World wheat production was in the range of 613-687 mmt during the previous MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat production is projected to be 654.8 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 10.1% from 594.7 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 1.8% from 642.9 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major wheat producing countries or regions in the World in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with any changes that have occurred in these forecasts since the February 2014 WASDE report.  Production estimates are also provided for these major World wheat producers for “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and in MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in wheat production are projected in all major wheat producing countries or regions in “current” MY 2013/14 except for the United States (down 3.7 mmt to 58.0 mmt) and India (down 1.4 mmt to 93.5 mmt).  In “current” MY 2013/14 the European Union is projected to be the largest World producer of wheat at 142.9 mmt, followed by China (121.7 mmt), India (93.5 mmt), the United States (58.0 mmt), Russia (52.1 mmt), Canada (37.5 mmt), Australia (27.0 mmt), Pakistan (24.0 mmt), Ukraine (22.3 mmt), North Africa (20.3 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern Countries (18.9 mmt), Kazakhstan (13.9 mt), and Argentina (10.5 mmt).

II-B. World Wheat Exports by Country / Region

Global wheat exports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be a 162.1 mmt, up 2.7 mmt from February, and up 4.4 mmt from December 2013.  This figure is up 17.9% from 137.4 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, while also being up 2.7% from 157.8 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat exports are projected to be 130.1 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 18.3% from 110.0 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 0.7% from 129.2 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major wheat exporting countries or regions in the World in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in wheat exports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for the United States, Australia, Canada, the EU, Russia, Kazakhstan, and the Ukraine.  However, decreased exports are projected for Brazil, Argentina, and India.  The largest projected exporter of wheat in “current” MY 2013/14 is the United States (32.0 mmt), followed by the European Union (29.0 mmt), Canada (23.0 mmt), Australia (19.5 mmt), Russia (17.5 mmt), Ukraine (10.0 mmt), Kazakhstan (6.5 mmt), India (6.5 mmt), and Argentina (3.0 mmt).

II-C. World Wheat Imports by Country / Region

Global wheat imports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be a 155.3 mmt, up 3.0 mmt from February. This figure is up 7.2% from 144.6 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 3.8% from 149.3 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat imports are projected to be 150.4 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 6.5% from 141.3 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 2.8% from 146.3 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major wheat importing countries or regions in the World in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in wheat imports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for Brazil, China, Selected Middle Eastern countries, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, the United States, India, and Brazil, while decreases are projected for the European Union, and Australia.  North Africa (23.4 mmt) is projected to be the largest World wheat importer in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by Selected Middle Eastern countries (20.7 mmt), Southeast Asia (15.9 mmt), China (8.5 mmt), Brazil (7.4 mmt), the Former Soviet Union (12 countries) (7.4 mmt), the European Union (4.0 mmt), and Pakistan (0.7 mmt).  China is projected to see “current” MY 2013/14 wheat imports increase to 8.5 mmt from 3.0 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 2.9 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

II-D. World Wheat Feed Use by Country / Region

Global wheat domestic feed use in “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be a 135.0 mmt, down 0.7 mmt from the February 2014 WASDE.  This figure is down 1.1% from 136.5 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and down 8.1% from 146.9 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat domestic feed use is projected to be 128.2 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 1.8% from 125.9 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, but down 10.0% from 142.5 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of wheat domestic feed use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in wheat feed use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for nearly all major importing and exporting countries except for the United States, Argentina, the European Union, and Southeast Asia.  The European Union (48.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of wheat for domestic feeding in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by China (25.0 mmt), Russia (13.0 mmt), the United States (6.8 mmt), Canada (5.0 mmt), India (3.5 mmt), Ukraine (3.5 mmt), Australia (3.6 mmt), Selected Middle East (3.5 mmt), North Africa (2.7 mmt), Southeast Asia (2.6 mmt), Kazakhstan (2.5 mmt), Pakistan (0.6 mmt) and Brazil (0.6 mmt). 

II-E. World Wheat Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global wheat food, seed and industrial (FSI) use in “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be a 569.9 mmt, up 1.5 mmt from February 2014, and up 2.9 mmt from the December 2013 WASDE.  This figure is up 5.0% from 543.0 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 3.5% from 550.4 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat FSI use is projected to be 541.7 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 5.1% from 515.3 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 3.6% from 522.8 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of wheat FSI use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases or no changes in wheat FSI use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for all countries except the European Union, Russia, and the Ukraine.  China (100.5 mmt) is projected to be the largest World FSI user of wheat in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by India (88.7 mmt), the European Union (69.3 mmt), North Africa (40.0 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (32.6 mmt), the United States (28.2 mmt), Pakistan (23.4 mmt), Russia (21.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (13.2 mmt), Brazil (10.8 mmt), Ukraine (8.0 mmt), Argentina (6.0 mmt), Canada (5.2 mmt), Kazakhstan (4.8 mmt), and Australia (3.4 mmt). 

II-F. World Wheat Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat use of 704.8 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14 is a record high, and is up 3.7% from 679.4 mmt for “last year” in MY 2012/13, up 1.1% from 697.3 mmt in MY 2011/12, and up from the range of 615-654 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 7 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat total use is projected to be 669.9 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 4.5% from 641.2 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 0.7% from 665.2 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of total wheat use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases or no changes in wheat total use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for all countries except the United States, the European Union, Argentina, and Ukraine.  China (125.5 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of wheat in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by the European Union (117.3 mmt), India (92.2 mmt), North Africa (42.8 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (36.1 mmt), United States (35.0 mmt), Russia (34.5 mmt), the Pakistan (24.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (15.7 mmt), Ukraine (11.5 mmt), Brazil (11.4 mmt), Canada (10.2 mmt), Kazakhstan (7.3 mmt), Australia (7.0 mmt), and Argentina (6.1 mmt).

II-G. World Wheat Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks of 183.7 mmt for “current” MY 2013/14 is up 4.4% from 175.9 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, down 7.7% from 198.9 mmt in MY 2011/12, but is down from the range of 199-202 mmt over the MY 2009/10 through 2011/12 period (Table 8 and Figure 7).  The 36 year low in World wheat ending stocks occurred when supply-demand balances fell to 129.6 mmt in MY 2007/08.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks are projected at 168.6 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 7.8% from 156.4 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and down 5.7% from 178.7 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 8 provides a list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of projected holdings of wheat ending stocks in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in wheat ending stocks in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for all countries / regions except the Unites States, India, and Southeast Asia.  China (57.7 mmt) is projected to be the largest holder of wheat ending stocks in the World in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by India (19.0 mmt), the United States (15.2 mmt), North Africa (11.7 mmt), selected Middle Eastern countries (12.2 mmt), the European Union (10.7), Canada (9.8 mmt), Russia (6.0 mmt), Australia (4.9 mmt), Southeast Asia (3.3 mmt), Kazakhstan (3.1 mmt), Ukraine (3.1 mmt), Pakistan (2.7 mmt), Brazil (1.8 mmt), and Argentina (1.8 mmt).

II-H. World Wheat Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks-to-use of 26.1% for “current” MY 2013/14 is up from 25.9% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and down from 28.5% in MY 2011/12 (Table 9 and Figure 8).  This level of World wheat ending stocks-to-use is the 2nd lowest in six (6) years.  After falling to minimum levels of World wheat % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2006/07 (21.7% S/U) and MY 2007/08 (21.1% S/U), World wheat % S/U was 26.6% in MY 2008/09, 31.1% in MY 2009/10, 30.4% in MY 2010/11, 28.9% in MY 2011/12, 25.6% in MY 2012/13, and is now projected to be 26.4% in “current” MY 2013/14.  The 36 year low in World wheat ending stocks-to-use occurred when supply-demand balances fell to 21.1% in MY 2007/08.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks-to-use are projected at 21.1% in “current” MY 2013/14, up from 20.8% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and down from 22.5% in MY 2011/12. 

Table 9 provides a list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of projected wheat ending stocks-to-use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year decreases in wheat ending stocks-to-use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for the United States, North Africa, India, Southeast Asia, and Kazakhstan.  China (45.6%) is projected to be the largest holder of wheat ending stocks-to-use in the World in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by selected Middle Eastern countries (33.1%), Canada (29.6%), North Africa (27.0%), the United States (22.7%), Kazakhstan (22.4%), Southeast Asia (20.2%), Argentina (19.3%), India (19.2%), Australia (18.6%), Brazil (15.1%), Ukraine (14.2%), Russia (11.6%), Pakistan (11.1%), and the European Union (7.3%).

Similar to the relation between U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average wheat prices (see Figure 6), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. wheat season average cash prices and World wheat % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “jump” after MY 2009/10 (Figure 8). 

Larger World wheat supply-demand balances (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. wheat prices, while smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher wheat prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 6 earlier, U.S. wheat prices in Figure 8 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).   Whereas the minimum U.S. wheat percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 13.2% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 2007/08, the historic minimum in World wheat percent stocks-to-use occurred in that same marketing year at 21.1%.  Since that time, World wheat ending stocks-to-use have not gotten below the vicinity of 25.6% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and 26.3% in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.

Table 1. U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “Next Crop” MY 2014/15 (March 10th WASDE & KSU 2014/15 Projections)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA

Feb 21st Ag Outlook Conf

2014/15

KSU

Low Yield

55.3 mln ac.

2014/15

KSU

Trend Yield

56.3 mln ac.

2014/15

KSU

High Yield

57.3 mln ac.

2014/15

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

35%

55%

10%

Planted Area (million acres)

63.2

59.2

53.6

54.4

55.7

56.2

55.5

55.3

56.3

57.3

Harvested Area (million acres)

55.7

49.9

47.6

45.7

48.9

45.2

47.2

46.6

47.4

48.3

% Harvested/Planted Area

88.1%

84.3%

88.9%

84.0%

87.9%

80.4%

85.0%

84.2%

84.2%

84.2%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

44.9

44.5

46.3

43.7

46.3

47.2

45.8

39.0

45.8

47.5

 

 

Beginning Stocks

306

657

976

862

743

718

558

558

558

558

Production

2,499

2,218

2,207

1,999

2,266

2,130

2,160

1,817

2,171

2,294

Imports

127

119

97

112

123

170

150

180

160

140

Total Supply

2,932

2,993

3,279

2,974

3,131

3,018

2,868

2,555

2,889

2,992

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Food Use

927

919

926

941

945

960

*965

955

960

965

Seed Use

78

69

71

76

73

74

*76

74

74

74

Exports

1,015

879

1,291

1,051

1,007

1,175

1,050

1,000

1,175

1,200

Feed & Residual Use

255

150

129

162

388

250

190

100

150

160

Total Use

2,275

2,018

2,417

2,231

2,414

2,459

2,281

2,129

2,359

2,399

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ending Stocks

657

976

862

743

718

558

587

426

530

593

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

28.9%

48.4%

35.7%

33.3%

29.7%

22.7%

25.7%

20.0%

22.5%

24.7%

U.S. Wheat Avg. Farm Price ($/bushel)

$6.78

$4.87

$5.70

$7.24

 

$7.77

 

$6.75-$6.95

($6.85)

$5.30

$7.75-$8.75

($8.25)

$6.60-$7.60

($7.10)

$6.10-$7.10

($6.60)


 

Figure 1. U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage – All Winter, Spring & Durum Wheat Classes (1973-2014)

Figure 2. U.S. All Wheat Planted Acreage (1973-2014)

Figure 3. U.S. All Wheat Yield Trend (1973-2013) and KSU Trend Projection for 2014 (March 10, 2014)

Text Box: Projected 2014 Yield
KSU: 45.8 bu/ac (trend)
10 year Min. = 38.6 bu/ac
10 year Max. = 47.2 bu/ac
 

Figure 4. Trends in U.S. Wheat Use and Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 - “Current” MY 2013/14

                    (March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Figure 5. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks vs U.S. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 thru “Next Year” MY 2014/15      
(March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report & KSU projections for MY 2014/15)

Figure 6. U.S. Wheat Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 thru “Next Year” MY 2014/15)     

Text Box: USDA 
“New Crop”
MY 2014/15
25.7% S/U
$5.30
Text Box: KSU 
“New Crop”
MY 2014/15
22.5% S/U
 $7.10 /bu
Text Box: 2011/12

Figure 7. World Wheat Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “Current” MY 2013/14                          
(March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: Wheat Usage
ñ12.0 mmt/yr (+2.0%/yr) since 2007/08
Text Box: End Stocks
183.8 mmt 
in 2013/14
 
Up 46.3 mmt (+36%) since 
36 year low in 
MY 2007/08
Text Box: Wheat Trade
133-162 mmt since 2008/09
 
162.1 mmt in MY 2013/14
Text Box: Production
652-713 mmt
since 2008/09

Figure 8. U.S. Wheat Price vs % World Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “Current” MY 2013/14)    

Text Box: Cross Market Price Support
Tight corn stocks & high corn prices since MY 2006/07 have been supporting wheat prices   – especially in the 2011/12 & 2013/14 marketing years
 
 
Text Box: 2011/12

 

Table 2. World Wheat Production Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Wheat Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Production: Current 2013/14     March 2014

Wheat Production: Feb ‘14 Current 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

Current 2013/14 Production:               Mar ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

Current 2013/14 Production:                Percent (%)         Mar ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Wheat Production: Last year’s 2012/13           (1 year ago)

Current 2013/14 Production             Less Last year’s 2012/13

% Current 2013/14 Production of                         Last year’s 2012/13 Production

Wheat Production: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

Current 2013/14 Production             Less                     2011/12 Production

% Current 2013/14 Production       of                         2011/12 Production

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

712.72

711.89

0.83

100.1%

656.42

56.30

108.6%

697.27

15.45

102.2%

United States

57.96

57.96

0.00

100.0%

61.67

(3.71)

94.0%

54.41

3.55

106.5%

Total Foreign

654.75

653.92

0.83

100.1%

594.74

60.01

110.1%

642.86

11.89

101.8%

Major Exporters

217.89

217.37

0.52

100.2%

192.84

25.05

113.0%

208.88

9.01

104.3%

Argentina

10.50

10.50

0.00

100.0%

9.30

1.20

112.9%

15.50

(5.00)

67.7%

Australia

27.00

26.50

0.50

101.9%

22.46

4.54

120.2%

29.91

(2.91)

90.3%

Canada

37.50

37.50

0.00

100.0%

27.21

10.29

137.8%

25.29

12.21

148.3%

European Union - 28 Countries

142.89

142.87

0.02

100.0%

133.88

9.01

106.7%

138.18

4.71

103.4%

Major Importers

194.34

194.62

(0.28)

99.9%

187.36

6.98

103.7%

188.58

5.76

103.1%

Brazil

5.30

5.30

0.00

100.0%

4.38

0.92

121.0%

5.80

(0.50)

91.4%

China

121.72

122.00

(0.28)

99.8%

121.02

0.70

100.6%

117.40

4.32

103.7%

Selected Middle East

18.89

18.89

0.00

100.0%

17.34

1.55

108.9%

17.70

1.19

106.7%

North Africa

20.31

20.31

0.00

100.0%

17.23

3.08

117.9%

18.31

2.00

110.9%

Pakistan

24.00

24.00

0.00

100.0%

23.30

0.70

103.0%

25.00

(1.00)

96.0%

Southeast Asia

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

India

93.51

92.46

1.05

101.1%

94.88

(1.37)

98.6%

86.87

6.64

107.6%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

103.83

103.83

0.00

100.0%

77.50

26.33

134.0%

115.03

(11.20)

90.3%

Russia

52.07

52.07

0.00

100.0%

37.72

14.35

138.0%

56.24

(4.17)

92.6%

Kazakhstan

13.94

13.94

0.00

100.0%

9.84

4.10

141.7%

22.73

(8.79)

61.3%

Ukraine

22.28

22.28

0.00

100.0%

15.76

6.52

141.4%

22.32

(0.04)

99.8%

 

Table 3. World Wheat Export Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Wheat Exports                                               by Major Country / Region

Wheat Exports: Current 2013/14     March 2014

Wheat Exports: Feb ‘14 Current 2013/14                   (1 mo. ago)

Current 2013/14 Exports:               Mar ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

Current 2013/14 Exports:                Percent (%)         Mar ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Wheat Exports: Last year’s 2012/13           (1 year ago)

Current 2013/14 Exports             Less Last year’s 2012/13

% Current 2013/14 Exports of                         Last year’s 2012/13 Exports

Wheat Exports: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

Current 2013/14 Exports             Less                     2011/12 Exports

% Current 2013/14 Exports          of                         2011/12 Exports

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

162.05

159.39

2.66

101.7%

137.39

24.66

117.9%

157.78

4.27

102.7%

United States

31.98

31.98

0.00

100.0%

27.42

4.56

116.6%

28.61

3.37

111.8%

Total Foreign

130.07

127.41

2.66

102.1%

109.98

20.09

118.3%

129.18

0.89

100.7%

Major Exporters

74.50

73.00

1.50

102.1%

63.80

10.70

116.8%

71.63

2.87

104.0%

Argentina

3.00

3.00

0.00

100.0%

3.55

(0.55)

84.5%

12.93

(9.93)

23.2%

Australia

19.50

19.50

0.00

100.0%

18.66

0.84

104.5%

24.66

(5.16)

79.1%

Canada

23.00

23.00

0.00

100.0%

18.98

4.02

121.2%

17.35

5.65

132.6%

European Union - 28 Countries

29.00

27.50

1.50

105.5%

22.62

6.38

128.2%

16.69

12.31

173.8%

Major Importers

5.51

5.36

0.15

102.8%

6.48

(0.97)

85.0%

7.70

(2.19)

71.6%

Brazil

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

1.58

(1.08)

31.6%

2.04

(1.54)

24.5%

China

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

0.97

0.03

103.1%

0.98

0.02

102.0%

Selected Middle East

0.62

0.64

(0.02)

96.9%

0.70

(0.08)

88.6%

1.33

(0.71)

46.6%

North Africa

0.68

0.58

0.10

117.2%

0.60

0.08

113.3%

0.44

0.24

154.5%

Pakistan

0.60

0.60

0.00

100.0%

0.85

(0.25)

70.6%

1.10

(0.50)

54.5%

Southeast Asia

0.82

0.74

0.08

110.8%

0.77

0.05

106.5%

0.73

0.09

112.3%

India

6.50

6.50

0.00

100.0%

6.82

(0.32)

95.3%

0.89

5.61

730.3%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

34.90

33.90

1.00

102.9%

25.50

9.40

136.9%

39.77

(4.87)

87.8%

Russia

17.50

16.50

1.00

106.1%

11.29

6.21

155.0%

21.63

(4.13)

80.9%

Kazakhstan

6.50

6.50

0.00

100.0%

6.29

0.21

103.3%

11.84

(5.34)

54.9%

Ukraine

10.00

10.00

0.00

100.0%

7.19

2.81

139.1%

5.44

4.56

183.8%

 

Table 4. World Wheat Import Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Wheat Imports                                               by Major Country / Region

Wheat Imports: Current 2013/14      March 2014

Wheat Imports: Feb ‘14 Current 2013/14                   (1 mo. ago)

Current 2013/14 Imports:               Mar ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

Current 2013/14 Imports:                Percent (%)         Mar ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Wheat Imports:    Last year’s 2012/13           (1 year ago)

Current 2013/14 Imports             Less Last year’s 2012/13

% Current 2013/14 Imports of                         Last year’s 2012/13 Imports

Wheat Imports: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

Current 2013/14 Imports             Less                     2011/12 Imports

% Current 2013/14 Imports         of   2011/12 Imports

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

155.03

152.00

3.03

102.0%

144.63

10.40

107.2%

149.32

5.71

103.8%

United States

4.63

4.63

0.00

100.0%

3.34

1.29

138.6%

3.05

1.58

151.8%

Total Foreign

150.41

147.37

3.04

102.1%

141.29

9.12

106.5%

146.27

4.14

102.8%

Major Exporters

4.63

4.62

0.01

100.2%

5.89

(1.26)

78.6%

7.98

(3.35)

58.0%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

Australia

0.13

0.12

0.01

108.3%

0.14

(0.01)

92.9%

0.12

0.01

108.3%

Canada

0.49

0.49

0.00

100.0%

0.48

0.01

102.1%

0.49

0.00

100.0%

European Union - 28 Countries

4.00

4.00

0.00

100.0%

5.26

(1.26)

76.0%

7.37

(3.37)

54.3%

Major Importers

87.09

85.06

2.03

102.4%

79.14

7.95

110.0%

80.31

6.78

108.4%

Brazil

7.40

7.40

0.00

100.0%

7.36

0.04

100.5%

7.34

0.06

100.8%

China

8.50

8.50

0.00

100.0%

2.96

5.54

287.2%

2.93

5.57

290.1%

Selected Middle East

20.69

19.06

1.63

108.6%

20.43

0.26

101.3%

16.31

4.38

126.9%

North Africa

23.40

22.90

0.50

102.2%

22.16

1.24

105.6%

24.90

(1.50)

94.0%

Pakistan

0.70

0.80

(0.10)

87.5%

0.05

0.65

1400.0%

0.05

0.65

1400.0%

Southeast Asia

15.90

15.90

0.00

100.0%

15.76

0.14

100.9%

17.41

(1.51)

91.3%

India

0.02

0.02

0.00

100.0%

0.02

0.00

100.0%

0.02

0.00

100.0%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

7.41

6.91

0.50

107.2%

7.23

0.18

102.5%

8.02

(0.61)

92.4%

Russia

1.00

0.50

0.50

200.0%

1.17

(0.17)

85.5%

0.55

0.45

181.8%

Kazakhstan

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

Ukraine

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.05

200.0%

0.08

0.02

125.0%

 

Table 5. World Wheat Feed Use Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, & MY 2011/12

World Wheat Feed Use                                            by Major Country / Region

Wheat         Feed Use: Current 2013/14      March 2014

Wheat Feed Use: Feb ‘14 Current 2013/14                   (1 mo. ago)

Current 2013/14   Feed Use:               Mar ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

Current 2013/14   Feed Use:                Percent (%)         Mar ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Wheat        Feed Use: Last year’s 2012/13           (1 year ago)

Current 2013/14    Feed Use             Less Last year’s 2012/13

% Current 2013/14   Feed Use of                         Last year’s 2012/13   Feed Use

Wheat        Feed Use: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

Current 2013/14    Feed Use             Less                     2011/12   Feed Use

% Current 2013/14   Feed Use of                         2011/12   Feed Use

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

134.95

135.02

(0.07)

99.9%

136.49

(1.54)

98.9%

146.87

(11.92)

91.9%

United States

6.80

6.80

0.00

100.0%

10.57

(3.77)

64.3%

4.42

2.38

153.8%

Total Foreign

128.15

128.22

(0.07)

99.9%

125.92

2.23

101.8%

142.45

(14.30)

90.0%

Major Exporters

56.70

57.80

(1.10)

98.1%

58.59

(1.89)

96.8%

65.50

(8.80)

86.6%

Argentina

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.30

(0.20)

33.3%

0.10

0.00

100.0%

Australia

3.60

3.20

0.40

112.5%

3.40

0.20

105.9%

3.20

0.40

112.5%

Canada

5.00

5.00

0.00

100.0%

4.39

0.61

113.9%

4.70

0.30

106.4%

European Union - 28 Countries

48.00

49.50

(1.50)

97.0%

50.50

(2.50)

95.0%

57.50

(9.50)

83.5%

Major Importers

35.91

35.51

0.40

101.1%

35.29

0.62

101.8%

38.28

(2.37)

93.8%

Brazil

0.60

0.60

0.00

100.0%

0.20

0.40

300.0%

0.50

0.10

120.0%

China

25.00

25.00

0.00

100.0%

25.00

0.00

100.0%

24.00

1.00

104.2%

Selected Middle East

3.48

3.08

0.40

113.0%

2.65

0.83

131.3%

3.93

(0.45)

88.5%

North Africa

2.68

2.68

0.00

100.0%

2.38

0.30

112.6%

3.48

(0.80)

77.0%

Pakistan

0.60

0.60

0.00

100.0%

0.60

0.00

100.0%

0.40

0.20

150.0%

Southeast Asia

2.56

2.56

0.00

100.0%

3.04

(0.48)

84.2%

3.98

(1.42)

64.3%

India

3.50

3.50

0.00

100.0%

3.40

0.10

102.9%

3.10

0.40

112.9%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

23.84

23.84

0.00

100.0%

20.96

2.88

113.7%

27.90

(4.06)

85.4%

Russia

13.00

13.50

(0.50)

96.3%

11.90

1.10

109.2%

15.50

(2.50)

83.9%

Kazakhstan

2.50

2.50

0.00

100.0%

2.00

0.50

125.0%

2.60

(0.10)

96.2%

Ukraine

3.50

3.50

0.00

100.0%

3.30

0.20

106.1%

6.10

(2.60)

57.4%

 

Table 6. World Wheat Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) Use Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, & MY 2011/12

World Wheat Food, Seed, & Industrial Use                                            by Major Country / Region

Wheat         FSI Use:

Current 2013/14      March 2014

Wheat FSI Use:        

Feb ‘14 Current 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

Current 2013/14   FSI Use:               Mar ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

Current 2013/14  FSI Use:

Percent (%)         Mar ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Wheat        FSI Use: Last year’s 2012/13           (1 year ago)

Current 2013/14    FSI Use             Less Last year’s 2012/13

% Current 2013/14  

FSI Use of                         Last year’s 2012/13 

FSI Use

Wheat        FSI Use: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

Current 2013/14

FSI Use             Less                     2011/12  

FSI Use

% Current 2013/14  

FSI Use

of

2011/12  

FSI Use

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

569.87

568.37

1.50

100.3%

542.95

26.92

105.0%

550.44

19.43

103.5%

United States

28.16

28.16

0.00

100.0%

27.70

0.46

101.7%

27.69

0.47

101.7%

Total Foreign

541.72

540.82

0.90

100.2%

515.25

26.47

105.1%

522.75

18.97

103.6%

Major Exporters

83.75

83.75

0.00

100.0%

83.94

(0.19)

99.8%

84.04

(0.29)

99.7%

Argentina

5.95

5.95

0.00

100.0%

5.90

0.05

100.8%

5.85

0.10

101.7%

Australia