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Grain Market Outlook

Wheat Market Outlook in Mid-December 2015

December 22, 2015


Summary 

Since USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports on December 9th, U.S. and World wheat market prices have moved sideways-to-marginally higher.  For the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year the USDA projected that 1) World wheat total supplies (947.0 mmt) and total use (717.1 mmt) would be at record high levels, 2) World wheat export trade (161.7 mmt) would be down moderately from a year ago (164.4 mmt) – with World export sales competition occurring in what can be termed a “buyer’s market”, and c) World wheat ending stocks (229.9 mmt – up from 212.1 mmt a year ago) would be record high, with percent ending stocks-to-use (32.1% - up from 30.0% a year ago) at their highest level in 14 years (since MY 2001/02).  The 38-year low in World wheat ending stocks of 128.6 mmt and percent ending stocks-to-use of 20.9% S/U occurred in the last major “short crop” marketing year in MY 2007/08. 

There are ongoing concerns in the World wheat market about a) potential wheat production problems and supply prospects in the Black Sea region and elsewhere), b) foreign geopolitical changes and conflicts, and c) spillover impacts from volatile World economic, financial and currency markets.  Even so, the “large crop-over supply” situation currently existing in World & U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong negative influence on World wheat prices.  For wheat prices are to recover significantly before summer-2016 it is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur.  Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks, and causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices. 

USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made no adjustments in its supply-demand forecasts for U.S. wheat in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion bushels (bb) production, 2.930 bb total supplies, 800 million bushels (mb) of exports, 2.019 bb of total use, 911 mb ending stocks, and 45.1% ending-stocks-to-use (up to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10).  A price range of $4.80-$5.20 /bu was forecast with a midpoint of $5.00 /bu –the lowest level since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.

KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “new crop” MY 2015/16: Two possible domestic wheat market scenarios are forecast by Kansas State University for “new crop” MY 2015/16: A) “Lower Exports” Scenario: 80% prob. of the same U.S. wheat supply estimates as the USDA, but with U.S. exports dropping below “old crop” 2014/15 levels to 750 mb exports, with 961 mb ending stocks, 48.8% S/U, and $4.85 /bu U.S. average price; and B) “Higher Exports” Scenario: 20% prob. of supply prospects again equal to the USDA’s, but with higher U.S. wheat exports, i.e., 900 mb exports, with 811 mb ending stocks, 38.3% S/U, and $5.85 /bu U.S. average price.  

USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA provided a forecast of U.S. wheat market outlook for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning June 1, 2016.   The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 53.0 million acres (ma) – down 1.644 ma from 2015.  Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 44.9 ma would be down 2.194 ma vs 2015.  With projected yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.060 bb (up marginally vs 2015), with 2016/17 total supplies equaling 3.096 bb (up from 2.930 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16).  With forecast “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.198 bb, and ending stocks of 928 mb (42.8% S/U), U.S. wheat prices are projected to be $4.40 /bu – down from $5.00 /bu in “new crop” MY 2015/16.


I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook

I-A. December 2015 USDA WASDE Report

On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply-demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.  The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2015 and will last through 5/31/2016. 

I-B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat MARCH & JULY 2016 Futures

Since a market high of $6.40 ¼ per bushel for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2016 Kansas hard red winter wheat futures contract on June 30, 2015, MARCH 2016 futures have trended sharply lower (Figure 1).  The slow pace of U.S. wheat exports (caused by record large World wheat supply prospects in “new crop” MY 2015/16, and the historically high value of the U.S. dollar) has been the key factor causing the recent sharp decline in “current crop” CME MARCH 2016 Kansas HRW wheat futures prices. 

Figure 1. MARCH & JULY 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts ource

MARCH 2016 Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices responded positively to the release of the December 9th USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time).  MARCH 2016 HRW wheat futures prices opened at $4.72 on Wednesday, December 9th - trading as high as $4.82 ¼ and as low as $4.72 per bushel (i.e., the day’s opening price) during the session before closing $0.08 higher for the day at $4.80 ½ /bu (Figure 1).  Since then, MARCH 2016 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded in a range of a high of $4.96 ¾ on December 15th to a low of $4.70 on December 17th, before closing at $4.74 per bushel on Monday, December 21st.   

Similarly, CME JULY 2016 Hard Red Winter wheat futures prices opened at $4.93 ¾ on December 9th, and traded in a range of a low of $4.93 ¼ up to a high of $5.03 before closing at $5.02 /bu – up $0.08 ¼ /bu for the day (Figure 1).   Since the December 9th USDA report, CME JULY 2016 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded in a range of a high of $5.16 ¼ on December 15th to a low of $4.91 on December 17th before closing at $4.95 /bu on Monday, December 21st.

I-C. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends

So far in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year wheat cash and futures prices have moved lower from June through October 2015, followed by a modest increase in prices during November-December.  As explained below this price pattern is counter to usual historic Kansas wheat price seasonal patterns.

Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price trends (Figure 2).  Since MY 1999/00 Kansas hard red winter wheat prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average seasonal price index of 96.9% of the unweighted average marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June through May marketing year.  However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then trended higher on average after harvest through September-October, and then have trended sideways from November through January, with moderate seasonal strength in February-March, followed by a sideways-to-lower trend in during April and May. 

According to historic pattern, most of the post-harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices should have been realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the marketing year.  The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June-July and the period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February-March), with accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).   

Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop” MY 2014/15) plus “New Crop” MY 2015/16 (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA)

 

In it’s December 9th WASDE report the USDA has projected “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year average wheat prices to be in the range of $4.80 - $5.20 per bushel, with range midpoint of $5.00.   Monthly U.S. wheat prices as a percent of the USDA’s national average marketing year wheat price projection of $5.00 per bushel has declined steadily from a high of 108.6% ($5.43 /bu) in June down to 104.6% ($5.23) in July, 97.0% ($4.85) in August, 94.4% ($4.72) on September, 97.4% ($4.87) in October, 87.4% ($4.37 estimate) in November, and a preliminary estimated low of 87.2% ($4.36) in December 2015.  

United States’ wheat prices are moving in an unusual price pattern in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – declining during the November-December post-harvest period rather than following a more normal seasonal sideways-to-upward trend.  Weakness in U.S. wheat exports caused by a combination of a) large World wheat supply-demand balances, and b) the high value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies, is the primary cause of this downward price trend in fall-early winter 2016.

I-D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index

The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher from mid-July 2011 through early December 2015 (Figure 3).  After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 93.37 on Friday, February 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%.  After moving lower for a period of time, the index rose again to an even higher high of 95.21 on December 17, 2015. The latest recorded value of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 94.62 on Friday, December 18, 2015.

Figure 3. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index – Major Currencies (DTWEXM)                                
(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)

 

This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is especially significant to the U.S. wheat market.  A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. wheat exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars). 

Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports and as a result U.S. wheat markets, it is a very important one which currently works against the United States ability to be an affordable, competitive export seller in the World wheat trade.    

I-E. U.S. Wheat Production

U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage

Beginning with the September 30, 2015 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Small Grains 2015 Summary report and following with its’ subsequent October 9th, November 10th, and December 9th USDA NASS 2015 Crop Production reports, the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is 54.644 million acres (ma), down 2.178 ma (-3.8%) from 56.822 ma in 2014, down 1.592 ma (-2.8%) from 56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6 year low of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).  

Winter Wheat Planted Acres: In the December 9th NASS Crop Production report the USDA left unchanged its previous October-November forecast of 2015 U.S. winter wheat plantings of 39.461 ma, down 2.948 ma (-7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 3.769 ma (-8.7%) from 43.230 ma in 2013.  Of this total, 28.98 ma are projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in 2014, and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013.  Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at 7.09 ma, down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4% from 10.04 ma in 2013.  For 2015, USDA projects there to be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396 ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from 3.427 ma in 2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).      

Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: In December the USDA also left unchanged it’s previous October-November projections of total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to be 13.247 ma, up 222,000 acres (+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013.  Of this total, 12.51 ma are seeded to Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.

 Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are still projected by the USDA at 1.936 ma in 2015, up 529,000 acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014, and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from 1.400 ma in 2013.

U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage

Also beginning in the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October, November, and December USDA NASS 2015 Crop Production reports the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested acreage is 47.094 million acres (ma), up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385 ma in 2014, and up 1.762 ma (+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).  

Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested-to-planted acreage was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015, up from 81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%-89.1% (average = 84.1%) over the 2000-2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5).  The proportion of harvested-to-planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.

Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: In December the USDA maintained its previous October-November forecasts of 2015 U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage at 33.257 ma, down 42,000 acres (-0.1%) from 32.299 ma in 2014, down 393,000 acres (-1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (-6.8%) from 34.609 ma in 2012.  Of this total, 23.14 ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 5.6% from 21.92 ma in 2014, and up from 20.39 ma in 2013.  Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7% from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013.  For 2015, USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW) wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in 2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0% from 748,000 acres in 2014).     

Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA also maintained it’s October-November projections that total U.S. other spring wheat harvested area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous forecast.  This projection of 12.941 ma of 2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres (+1.6%) from 12.740 ma in 2014, and up 1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013.  Of this total, 12.22 ma are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.

Durum Wheat Harvested Acres:  Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from 1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres (+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.

U.S. Wheat Yields & Production

In the December 9, 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production report the USDA maintained it’s October-November projections of 2015 U.S. average wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from projections of 44.1 bu/ac in August-September, and 44.3 bu/ac in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015.  This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6). 

Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094 ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production continues to be projected at 2.052 billion bushels (bb).  This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004-2014 range of 1.808-2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).   

I-F. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies

Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.930 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 projected by the USDA in December are unchanged from October-November, but down 84 mb from the September WASDE report, resulting from beginning stocks of 753 mb, projected 2015 production of 2.052 bb, and projected imports of 125 mb (Table 1 and Figure 7).   Over the last ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.969 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.119 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.026 bb in MY 2013/14, 2.766 bb in MY 2014/15, and are now projected to be 2.930 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.

Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 753 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 27.6% from 590 mb in beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 718 mb in MY 2013/14.  This projection of 753 mb in beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic low of 306 mb in MY 2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that occurred in MY 2007/08. 

Projected U.S. wheat imports of 125 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are less than 149 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in MY 2013/14.  Since MY 1973/74 and prior to MY 2013/14, the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 124 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10. 

Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and associated grain transportation logistics.  Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports.  Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt (1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 27.6 mmt (1,014 bb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  The largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990 (32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and 2013 (37.5 mmt or 1.379 bb).       

I-G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category

Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 follows a consistent upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated regular increases in domestic demand for processed wheat products.  This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 follows 958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8). 

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 81 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).  The USDA’s forecast of U.S. wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat for seed use purposes.  Seed demand is driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on-farm seed sources) with consideration for the risk of possible shortfalls in annual seed wheat production. 

Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 800 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 in December are unchanged from November, but down 50 mb from October, down 100 mb from September, 125 mb from August, and 150 mb from July.  This projection of 800 mb in U.S. wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down 6.3% from 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and is down to the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72 prior to the “Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8).  Over the last ten (10) marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015 bb in MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, an estimate of 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now a projection of 800 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.

Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b) prospects for fully adequate supplies of competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes.  That said, there are several factors that could change the current “low export demand” situation for the United States, including 1) the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts – such as those between Russian and Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East, and 2) the potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas due to the likelihood of an “El Nino” or an “El Nino transition to a La Nina” weather pattern in the spring and/or summer of 2016.  However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other market events should occur in late 2015 or in 2016, such market uncertainties are being treated as non-factors in current World wheat export and futures markets.

Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through December 10th – the 29th week of the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat – have totaled 386.0 mb, which is 48.25% of the USDA’s projected “new crop” MY 2015/16 exports of 800 mb, with 55.8% (29 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year began on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016.  United States’ wheat export shipments will need to average 18.0 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s December 9th WASDE projection of 800 mb.  Total wheat export shipments by the United States of 7.9 mb and 12.2 mb during the weeks ending December 3rd and 10th, respectively, are behind the pace (18.0 mb / week) to meet even the recently reduced USDA forecast of 800 mb in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year.  (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).

In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 136.1 mb in U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of December 10th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments added up to 552.1 mb (i.e., 386.0 mb shipped plus 136.1 mb forward sales).  This amounts to 69.0% of the USDA’s projection of 800 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 55.8% of the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 29 of 52 weeks) – presenting a more positive perspective on potential U.S. wheat export sales and the likelihood of U.S. wheat exports reaching the 800 mb target set by the USDA in the December 9th WASDE report. 

Feed & Residual Use: In December the USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 180 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16, unchanged from October-November, but down 20 mb from September.  This projection of 180 mb in U.S. feed and residual use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 120 mb for “old crop” MY 2014/15, down from 228 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the recent high of 365 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).  Domestic U.S. wheat feeding had trended lower in “old crop” MY 2014/15 from th previous year, and also in “new crop” MY 2015/16 due to the availability in domestic markets of sizable 2013 and 2014 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops and supplies.  This situation has led to large competitive U.S. feedgrain supplies for domestic livestock feeding at lower market prices than during “drought stricken” MY 2012/13. 

Subsequently, over the last two U.S. wheat marketing years, there has been and continues to be lower cross-market demand for U.S. wheat in domestic livestock feed rations – causing U.S. wheat usage to be approximately 75 to 150 mb less than it otherwise would likely been if the short feedgrain supply situation of the 2012/13 and 2013/14 marketing years had continued.  In summary, sharply lower wheat prices in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected by the USDA which may help to encourage a modest recovery in U.S. wheat feeding – even with projections of large supplies of low cost U.S. corn and grain sorghum available.

Total U.S. Wheat Use:  Total use of U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be 2.019 bb (unchanged from November, but down 50 mb from October, down 120 mb from September, down 145 mb from August, and down 170 mb from July due primarily to lower projected total exports).  This amount would be the 3rd smallest amount of U.S. wheat total usage in the last 12 marketing years, i.e., since MY 2004/05 (Figure 8). 

United States’ wheat total use has varied from 2.234 bb in MY 2004/05, 2.154 bb in MY 2005/06, 2.045 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.314 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.288 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.008 bb in MY 2009/10, 2.373 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.227 bb in MY 2011/12, 2.401 bb in MY 2012/13, 2.436 bb in MY 2013/14 (the largest amount during the most recent 12-year period), 2.013 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and finally to a projected level of 2.019 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

I-H. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks & % Stocks-to-Use & Prices

United States’ wheat ending stocks for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year are projected in December to be 911 mb – unchanged from November, but up 50 mb from October, 36 mb from September, 61 mb from August, and 69 mb from July) (Table 1 and Figure 8).  This amount of U.S. wheat ending stocks is 2.98 times larger than 306 mb in MY 2007/08 – the historic “tight stocks” marketing year since the early 1970s. 

Over the last ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat ending stocks have been 456 mb in MY 2006/07, a record low 306 mb in MY 2007/08, 657 mb in MY 2008/09, 976 mb in MY 2009/10, 863 in MY 2010/11, 743 mb in MY 2011/12, 718 mb in MY 2012/13, 590 mb in MY 2013/14, an estimated 753 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now a projected amount of 911 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  The 911 mb forecast for “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be the largest amount of ending stocks since 976 mb in MY 2009/10 and 950 mb in MY 1999/20.

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use for U.S. wheat of 45.1% in “new crop” MY 2015/16 as projected in the December 9th WASDE report is unchanged from November, but up from 41.6% in October, 40.9% in September, and 39.3% in August, and is now projected to be at the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10 (Table 1 and Figures 8 and 9).  Forecast U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use of 45.1% in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be the fourth highest level since the 31 year highs during the “U.S. farm financial crisis years” of 97.2% in MY 1985/86 and 82.9% MY 1986/87.  

Since the historically tight percent ending stocks-to-use of 22.3% in MY 2006/07, and the historic 67-year low of 13.2% in MY 2007/08, U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use has varied widely, being 28.7% in MY 2008/09, 48.6% in MY 2009/10 (the 29 year high since 82.9% in MY 1986/86), 36.4% in MY 2010/11, 33.4% in MY 2011/12, 29.9% in MY 2012/13, 24.2% in MY 2013/14, 37.4% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, to now a projected level of 45.1% in “new crop” MY 2015/16.   

U.S. average wheat prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be in the range of $4.80-$5.20 per bushel (“/bu”) (midpoint = $5.00 /bu) in the December 9th USDA WASDE report.  This projection is unchanged from November, with the same midpoint of $5.00 from September-October, while being down $0.10 from August, and down $0.25 /bu from July (Table 1 and Figures 9 and 10).

Starting in MY 2006/07 with at that time the record U.S. wheat price of $4.26, U.S. wheat prices rose to $6.48 per bushel in MY 2007/08, and then to $6.78 in MY 2008/09, before moving to $4.87 in MY 2009/10, $5.70 in MY 2010/11, $7.24 in MY 2011/12, the record high of $7.77 in MY 2012/13, $6.87 in MY 2013/14, $5.99 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now to the forecast range of $4.80-$5.20 /bu (midpoint = $5.00 /bu) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – the lowest level since $4.87 in MY 2009/10 (Table 1 and Figures 9 and 10).     

I-I. KSU Wheat Market Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2015/16

Kansas State University (KSU) Extension forecasts of U.S. wheat supply-demand balances and prices for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year are provided below.   In making a projection of U.S. wheat supply-demand and prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16, the primary focus here will be on market uncertainty associated with U.S. wheat exports, and how such variation may impact U.S. wheat total usage, ending stocks, percent ending stocks-to-use, and prices for the remainder of the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year. 

In the two KSU forecasts that follow, the USDA’s current projections for U.S. wheat 2015 harvested acres, yield, production, and total supplies will be assumed to remain unchanged.  However, these KSU projections vary from the USDA’s forecasts in regards to U.S. wheat exports, with one “lower” export scenario and one “higher” export scenario presented.   

These Kansas State University (KSU) projections of “new crop” 2015/16 supply-demand balances and prices are shown in Table 1, with the following scenarios represented:

A. KSU “New Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Wheat Projection – Lower Exports of 750 mln bu (80% Likelihood of Occurring)

Projections by KSU of U.S. wheat supply-demand balances and prices “new crop” MY 2015/16 are adjusted from the USDA’s December 9th Crop Production and WASDE reports in the specific instance of U.S. wheat exports and associated changes in total usage, ending stocks, percent ending stocks-to-use, and projected marketing year average (MYA) prices.  Projected total supplies, total usage, and ending stocks of U.S. wheat in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are shown in Table 1.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. corn average prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are based on projections of U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use, and are shown in Table 1 and Figures 9 and 10.  

It is estimated in this KSU forecast scenario that there is an “8 out of 10” or 80% chance that for “new crop” MY 2015/16, final U.S. wheat exports will decline to approximately 750 mb – down from the USDA’s current forecast of 800 mb for the same “new crop” period, and less than “old crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. wheat exports of 854 mb (Table 1).  The key assumption in this scenario is that U.S. wheat exports continue to struggle – causing them to at fall least 50 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 from the previous year – below 850 mb in MY 2002/03 and 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15. 

 “New crop” 2015/16 KSU Scenario for U.S. Wheat Exports @ 750 mln bu – 80% Probability

- U.S. Planted Area (mln. acres or ‘ma’)   = 54.644 ma                ò   1.4% (‒2,197,000 acres) vs 2014

- U.S. Harvested Area (ma)                  = 47.094 ma                ñ   1.5% (   +709,000 acres) vs 2014

- U.S. Wheat Yield (bu/acre)                 = 43.6 bu/ac                ò   0.1 bu/ac from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014

- U.S. Production (billion bu or ‘bb’)        =   2.052 bb                 ñ   1.2% (+26 mb) vs 2014

- Total Supplies (bb)                           =   2.930 bb                 ñ   5.9% (+164 mb) vs MY 2014/15

- Exports                                              =   0.750 bb                 ò 12.2% (-104 mb) vs MY 2014/15

- Total Use                                          =   1.969 bb                 ò   2.2% (-44 mb) vs MY 2014/15

- Ending Stocks                                    =   0.961 bb                 ñ 27.7% (+208 mb) vs MY 2014/15

- % Ending Stocks/Use                      = 48.81%                     vs 37.4% S/U in “old crop” MY 2014/15

- U.S. Wheat Price                             = $4.85 /bu                 vs $5.99 /bu in “old crop” MY 2014/15

With this first KSU wheat market forecast scenario, U.S. wheat ending stocks would equal 961 mb, with % ending stocks-to-use estimated to be 48.81% for “new crop” MY 2015/16 (Table 1 and Figures 9 and 10).  Based on historic stocks-to-use vs price relationships, U.S. wheat average prices in this scenario would be projected to be $4.85 per bushel for “new crop” MY 2015/16 – down $0.15 /bu from the USDA’s December 9th midpoint projection of $5.00 for “new crop” MY 2015/16, but still within the USDA’s range of estimates of $4.80-$5.20 /bu (Table 1 and Figures 9 and 10). 

B. KSU “New Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Wheat Projection – Higher Exports of 900 million bushels (20% Likelihood of Occurring)

It is also estimated there is still a “2 out of 10” or 20% chance that “new crop” MY 2015/16 final U.S. wheat exports will be 900 mb – up 100 mb from the USDA’s December 9th forecast of 800 mb for the same “new crop” marketing year period (Table 1).  

With this second KSU forecast scenario, U.S. wheat ending stocks would equal 811 mb, with % ending stocks-to-use estimated to be 38.27% for “new crop” MY 2015/16 (Table 1 and Figure 9).  Based on historic percent ending stocks-to-use vs price relationships, U.S. wheat average prices in this scenario are projected to be $5.50 per bushel for “new crop” MY 2015/16 – up $0.50 /bu from the USDA’s December 9th midpoint projection of $5.00. 

“New crop” 2015/16 KSU Scenario for U.S. Wheat Exports @ 900 mln bu – 20% Probability

- U.S. Planted Area (mln. acres or ‘ma’)   = 54.644 ma                ò   1.4% (‒2,197,000 acres) vs 2014

- U.S. Harvested Area (ma)                  = 47.094 ma                ñ   1.5% (    +709,000 acres) vs 2014

- U.S. Wheat Yield (bu/acre)                 = 43.6 bu/ac                ò   0.1 bu/ac from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014

- U.S. Production (billion bu or ‘bb’)        =   2.052 bb                 ñ   1.2% (+26 mb) vs 2014

- Total Supplies (bb)                           =   2.930 bb                 ñ   5.9% (+164 mb) vs MY 2014/15

- Exports                                              =   0.900 bb                 ñ   5.4% (+46 mb) vs MY 2014/15

- Total Use                                          =   2.119 bb                 ñ   5.3% (+106 mb) vs MY 2014/15

- Ending Stocks                                    =   0.811 bb                 ñ   7.7% (+58 mb) vs MY 2014/15

- % Ending Stocks/Use                      = 38.27%                     vs 37.4% S/U in “old crop” MY 2014/15

- U.S. Wheat Price                             = $5.50 /bu                 vs $5.99 /bu in “old crop” MY 2014/15

I-E. USDA Wheat Market Scenarios for “Next Year’s Crop” MY 2016/17

The USDA recently released supply-demand tables associated with it’s Long-Term Agricultural Projections through Year 2025 – often referred to as their “baseline projections” for U.S. agricultural product supply-demand and prices for the coming decade (http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm).  These baseline projections include their initial forecasts for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year for U.S. wheat (beginning June 1, 2016 and lasting through May 31, 2017).

These projections for MY 2016/17 are shown in Table 1, and Figures 4 through 10.  Overall, the USDA projects slightly higher ending stocks (928 mb) and percent ending stocks-to-use (42.8%) in “next crop” MY 2016/17 than in the current marketing year, i.e., “new crop” MY 2015/16, along with markedly lower U.S. wheat prices ($4.40 /bu).

A. USDA “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 Scenario: 2016 U.S. Wheat Crop of 2.060 bb with U.S. Wheat Prices  = $4.40 /bu

For “next crop” MY 2016/17, the USDA projects another “normal-to-large crop” U.S. wheat supply-demand and price scenario, with details as follows (Table 1).  Projections of MY 2016/17 total supplies, ending stocks, and percent ending stocks-to-use for “next crop” MY 2016/17 were adjusted accordingly.    

USDA Baseline Scenario for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand & Season Average U.S. Cash Wheat Prices

Key Forecast Variable      Þ 2.060 billion bushel U.S. Wheat Crop in 2016

ò 1.644 million acres planted & 45.9 bu/ac yields

- 2016 U.S. Planted Acres       = 53.000 million acres                        vs 54.644 ma in 2015 (down 1.644 ma)

- 2016 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 44.900 million acres                        vs 47.094 ma in 2015 (down 2.194 ma)

- 2016 U.S. Wheat Yield          = 45.9 bushels/acre                vs 43.6 bu/ac in 2015 (up 2.3 bu/ac)

- 2016 U.S. Wheat Crop         = 2.060 billion bushels (bb)   vs 2.052 bb in 2015 (up 8 mln bu (mb))

- Total Supplies                      = 3.096 bb                               vs 2.930 bb in MY 2015/16 (dn 166 mb)

- Food Use of wheat                =    974 mb                              vs 967 mb in MY 2015/16 (up 7 mb)

- Seed Use                               =      69 mb                              vs 72 mb in MY 2015/16 (up 3 mb)

- Exports                                  =    900 mb                              vs 800 mb in MY 2015/16 (up 100 mb)

- Feed & Residual Use             =    225 mb                              vs 180 mb in MY 2015/16 (up 45 mb)

- Total Use                              = 2.168 bb                               vs 2.019 bb in MY 2015/16 (up 149 mb)

- Ending Stocks                      =    928 mb                              vs 911 mb in MY 2015/16 (up 17 mb)                                                                                                                     

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 42.80% S/U                           vs 45.10% S/U in MY 2015/16 (down 2.3%)

- U.S. Corn Price                     = $4.40 per bushel                 vs $5.00 /bu in MY 2015/16 (ò$0.60 /bu)

II. World Wheat Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that World wheat production in “new crop” MY 2015/16 will be up 1.1% from the “old crop” 2014/15 marketing year that ended on May 31, 2015, and up 2.5% from two years ago in MY 2013/14 (Figure 11).  World wheat total supplies in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are forecast to be 947.0 mmt, up 27.9 mmt (up 3.0%) from 919.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 54.7 mmt (up 6.1%) from 892.3 mmt in MY 2013/14.  Given these increases in World wheat supplies, World wheat total use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to increase 1.4% from “old crop” MY 2014/15, and to be up 2.7% from MY 2013/14.  World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to increase by 8.4% from a year earlier in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and by 18.6% from two years ago in MY 2013/14.  

The direction of U.S. and World wheat markets for the late-December 2015 through May 2016 period, i.e., the remainder of “new crop” MY 2015/16, will depend primarily on market expectations of how total World wheat supplies balance with total demand, as well as on volatile World and U.S. financial and currency markets.  Wheat producing areas of the World from which periodic annual variations in wheat production historically have periodically caused significant market volatility in the last several years include a) Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the Black Sea Region, b) Australia, c) the United States, d) Canada, e) the wheat producing regions in the European Union, f) Argentina, g) India, and h) China.  Whether World wheat markets improve from current levels or not in the near or longer term will likely depend on whether production and/or export availability problems are avoided in any one or a combination of these major wheat producing and exporting areas in late 2015, 2016 and beyond.    

From the perspective of the United States, at this time the opportunity for sharp improvements in U.S. wheat export demand for “new crop” MY 2015/16 appear to be limited given the persistence of the high value of the U.S. dollar and its negative impact on U.S. wheat export sales as the U.S. competes in World wheat export markets with other major wheat exporters.  That said, it is also possible that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and/or the Black Sea region could escalate to the point of causing disruptions and extreme price volatility in World energy and grain markets.  These near impossible to forecast events could have a major impact on World wheat and other grain markets in coming months, but are not being accounted for to any appreciable degree in World wheat markets at this time.

II-A. World Wheat Production by Country / Region

Projected World wheat production of 733.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be the largest World wheat crop on record, being up 1.1% from the previous record high of 725.3 mmt for “old crop” MY 2014/15.  This total for “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 733.0 mmt is also up 2.5% from 715.3 mmt in MY 2013/14, is larger than the “short” 658.7 mmt World wheat crop in MY 2012/13, and above the range of 612.7-696.2 mmt during the previous MY 2007/09-MY 2011/12 period (Table 2 and Figure 11).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat production is projected to be 679.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up from 670.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 657.2 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major wheat producing countries or regions in the World in “new crop” MY 2015/16, the “old crop” 2014/15 marketing year, and MY 2013/14, along with any changes that have occurred in their wheat production forecasts in the August 2015 WASDE report.  Year-over-year increases in wheat production are forecast for the United States (up 0.7 to 55.8 mmt), Australia (up 2.3 to 26.0 mmt), the European Union (up 1.1 to 157.7 mmt), China (up 3.8 to 130.0 mmt), selected Middle Eastern Countries (up 0.5 to 17.9 mmt), North Africa (up 3.1 to 20.0 mmt), Russia (up 1.4 to 60.5 mmt), Kazakhstan (up 1.0 to 14.0 mmt), and Ukraine (up 2.25 to 27.0 mmt).   Year-over-year declines in “new crop” MY 2015/16 production are projected for Argentina (down 2.0 to 10.5 mmt), Canada (down 1.8 to 27.6 mmt), Pakistan (down 0.5 to 25.0 mmt), India (down 6.9 to 88.9 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (down 0.4 mmt to 15.5 mmt).  No change was projected for Brazil (unchanged at 6.0 mmt).

In “new crop” MY 2015/16, the European Union is projected to be the largest World producer of wheat at 157.7 mmt, followed by China (130.0 mmt), India (88.9 mmt), Russia (60.5 mmt), the United States (55.8 mmt), Canada (27.6 mmt), Ukraine (27.0 mmt), Australia (26.0 mmt), Pakistan (25.0 mmt), North Africa (20.0 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern Countries (17.9 mmt), the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (15.5 mmt), Kazakhstan (14.0 mt), Argentina (10.5 mmt), and Brazil (6.0 mmt).

II-B. World Wheat Exports by Country / Region

Global wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be a 161.7 mmt, down 2.6% from 164.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and also down 2.6% from 165.9 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat exports are projected to be 139.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, down 0.9% from 141.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 6.0% from 133.9 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major wheat exporting countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for Argentina (up 0.5 mmt), Australia (up 1.4 mmt), China (up 0.2 mmt), Russia (up 0.7 mmt), Kazakhstan (up 1.0 mmt), and Ukraine (up 4.2 mmt).  However, decreased exports are projected for the United States (down 1.5 mmt), Canada (down 3.6 mmt), the European Union (down 2.9 mmt), Brazil (down 0.2 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (down 0.7 mmt), Pakistan (down 0.1 mmt), and India (down 2.6 mmt).  No or minimal changes are projected for North Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr. 

The largest projected World exporter of wheat in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is the European Union (32.5 mmt), followed by the United States (21.8 mmt), Russia (23.5 mmt), Australia (18.0 mmt), Canada (20.5 mmt), Ukraine (15.5 mmt), Kazakhstan (6.5 mmt), Argentina (6.0 mmt), Brazil (1.5), China (1.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (1.0 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (0.8 mmt), India (0.8 mmt), the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (0.7 mmt), North Africa (0.65 mmt), and Pakistan (0.6 mmt).

II-C. World Wheat Imports by Country / Region

Global wheat imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 159.2 mmt, up 0.3% from 158.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down 0.5% from 158.4 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 4).   Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat imports are projected to be 155.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 0.8% from 154.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 1.4% from 153.65 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major wheat importing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14.  While increased wheat imports are projected for Brazil (up 0.9 mmt), China (up 0.1 mmt), North Africa (up 0.4 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.7 mmt), India (up 0.45 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (up 0.15 mmt), for “new crop” MY 2015/16, decreased imports are projected for the United States (down 0.7 mmt), selected Middle Eastern countries (down 0.6 mmt), Pakistan (down 0.65 mmt), and Kazakhstan (down 0.5 mmt).  Only marginal or no year-over-year changes in wheat imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine.   

North Africa (25.6 mmt) is projected to be the largest World wheat importer in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by Selected Middle Eastern countries (20.65 mmt), Southeast Asia (20.6 mmt), the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (6.9 mmt), Brazil (6.3 mmt), the European Union (6.0 mmt), the United States (3.4 mmt), China (2.0 mmt), India (0.5 mmt), Canada (0.5 mmt), Russia (0.35 mmt), Australia (0.15 mmt), Pakistan (0.1 mmt), Kazakhstan (0.08 mmt), Ukraine (0.05 mmt), and Argentina (0.03 mmt).    

II-D. World Wheat Domestic Feed Use by Country / Region

Global wheat domestic feed use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be 138.3 mmt, up 4.3% from 132.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 9.1% from 126.8 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat domestic feed use is projected to be 133.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 3.1% from 129.35 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 10.6% from 120.6 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of wheat domestic feed use in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in wheat feed use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States (up 1.65 mmt), the European Union (up 2.5 mmt), Brazil (up 0.3 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (up 0.4 mmt), North Africa (up 0.2 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.1 mmt), India (up 0.3 mmt), Russia (up 0.5 mmt), Kazakhstan (up 0.1 mmt), and Ukraine (up 0.5 mmt).   Declines in domestic wheat feeding are forecast for Argentina (down 0.2 mmt), Australia (down 0.1 mmt), China (down 2.0 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (down 0.3 mmt).   No or marginal changes are projected for Canada and Pakistan.

The European Union (57.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of wheat for domestic feeding in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by China (15.0 mmt), Russia (13.5 mmt), the United States (4.9 mmt), the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (5.2 mmt), Selected Middle East countries (4.85 mmt), India (4.8 mmt), Southeast Asia (5.6 mmt), Ukraine (4.5 mmt), Australia (4.0 mmt), Canada (3.8 mmt), North Africa (2.7 mmt), Kazakhstan (2.1 mmt), Pakistan (1.0 mmt), Brazil (0.6 mmt), and Argentina (0.1 mmt). 

II-E. World Wheat Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global wheat food, seed and industrial (FSI) use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be a 578.85 mmt, up 0.8% from 574.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 1.2% from 571.8 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat FSI use is projected to be 550.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 0.8% from 546.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 1.3% from 543.8 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of wheat FSI use in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in wheat FSI use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for China (up 1.5 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (up 1.0 mmt), North Africa (up 1.45 mmt), Pakistan (up 0.1 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.5 mmt), India (up 0.5 mmt), Russia (up 0.5 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (up 0.6 mmt).   Declines are projected for Canada (down 0.13 mmt), the European Union (down 0.25 mmt), and Brazil (down 0.4 mmt).  Marginal or no changes are forecast for the United States, Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. 

China (103.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World FSI user of wheat in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by India (89.1 mmt), the European Union (68.75 mmt), North Africa (41.65 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (32.6 mmt), the United States (28.3 mmt), Pakistan (23.6 mmt), Russia (23.0 mmt), the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (16.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (14.3 mmt), Brazil (10.0 mmt), Ukraine (8.0 mmt), Argentina (6.05 mmt), Canada (5.2 mmt), Kazakhstan (4.8 mmt), and Australia (3.4 mmt). 

II-F. World Wheat Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat total use of 717.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is the highest amount on record, being up 1.5% from the previous record high of 707.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, up 2.7% from 698.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up from the range of 614.5-689.35 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2012/13 period (Table 7 and Figure 11).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat total use is projected to be 684.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 1.3% from 675.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 3.0% from 664.3 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of total wheat use in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in wheat total use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States (up 1.65 mmt), the European Union (up 2.25 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (up 1.4 mmt), North Africa (up 1.65 mmt), Pakistan (up 0.1 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.6 mmt), India (up 0.8 mmt), Russia (up 1.0 mmt), Kazakhstan (up 0.1 mmt), Ukraine (up 0.5 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (up 0.3 mmt).  Decreases in total wheat usage are forecast for Argentina (down 0.2 mmt), Australia (down 0.1 mmt), Brazil (down 0.1 mmt), Canada (down 0.1 mmt), and China (down 0.5 mmt).    

The European Union (126.75 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of wheat in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by China (118.0 mmt), India (93.9 mmt), North Africa (44.3 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (37.5 mmt), Russia (36.5 mmt), the United States (33.2 mmt), Pakistan (24.6 mmt), the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (21.7 mmt), Southeast Asia (19.85 mmt), Ukraine (12.5 mmt), Brazil (10.6 mmt), Canada (9.0 mmt), Australia (7.4 mmt), Kazakhstan (6.9 mmt), and Argentina (6.15 mmt).

II-G. World Wheat Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks of 229.9 mmt for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 8.4% from 212.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 18.6% from 193.8 mmt in MY 2013/14, and is comparable to the range of 128.6-203.0 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2012/13 period (Table 8 and Figure 11).  The 37-year low in World wheat ending stocks occurred when supply-demand balances fell to 128.6 mmt in MY 2007/08.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks are projected at 205.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 7.0% from 191.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 15.4% from 177.7 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 8 provides a list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of projected holdings of wheat ending stocks in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States (up 4.3 mmt), Australia (up 0.7 mmt), the European Union (up 5.4 mmt), Brazil (up 0.2 mmt), China (up 13.0 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (up 0.2 mmt), North Africa (up 0.6 mmt), Russia (up 0.85 mmt), and Kazakhstan (up 0.7 mmt).  Decreases are projected for Argentina (down 1.6 mmt), Canada (down 1.4 mmt), Pakistan (down 0.1 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 0.2 mmt), India (down 5.3 mmt), and Ukraine (down 0.95 mmt).  A marginal change is projected for the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (up 0.02 mmt).

China (87.1 mmt) is the largest holder of wheat ending stocks in the World in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by the United States (24.8 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern countries (13.2 mmt), the European Union (18.95), North Africa (13.0 mmt), India (11.9 mmt), Russia (7.1 mmt), Canada (5.7 mmt), Australia (5.0 mmt), the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (5.0 mmt), Ukraine (4.2 mmt), Kazakhstan (3.9 mmt), Southeast Asia (4.0 mmt), Pakistan (3.1 mmt), Argentina (1.6 mmt), and Brazil (1.1 mmt).

II-H. World Wheat Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks-to-use of 32.1% for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 30.0% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 27.7% in MY 2013/14 (Table 9 and Figure 12).  After falling to a 38-year low in World wheat % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2007/08 (20.9% S/U), World wheat % S/U was 26.5% in MY 2008/09, 31.3% in MY 2009/10, 30.5% in MY 2010/11, 28.7% in MY 2011/12, 25.8% in MY 2012/13, 27.7% in MY 2013/14, 30.0% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and are now projected to be 32.1% in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks-to-use are projected at 24.9% in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up from 23.5% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 22.3% in MY 2013/14. 

Table 9 provides a list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of projected wheat percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2014/15 and MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in wheat ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States (up 7.7%), Australia (up 2.0%), the European Union (up 3.6%), Brazil (up 1.8%), China (up 11.1%), North Africa (up 0.3%), Russia (up 1.1%), and Kazakhstan (up 2.9%).  Decreases are projected for Argentina (down 14.0%), Canada (down 2.1%), Selected Middle Eastern countries (down 0.1%), Pakistan (down 0.4%), Southeast Asia (down 2.6%), India (down 5.3%), Ukraine (down 7.2%), and the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (down 0.3%).

China (73.2%) is projected to be the largest holder of wheat ending stocks-to-use in the World in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by the United States (45.1%), Selected Middle Eastern countries (34.5%), Kazakhstan (29.3%), North Africa (28.8%), the Former Soviet Union 12 Countries Less Rus/KZ/Ukr (22.4%), Australia (19.7%), Southeast Asia (19.4%), Canada (19.3%), Ukraine (15.1%), Argentina (12.8%), India (12.6%), Pakistan (12.4%), the European Union (12.0%), Russia (11.9%), and Brazil (8.8%).

II-I. World Wheat Ending Stocks-to-Use vs U.S. Wheat Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average wheat prices (see Figure 10) since MY 1973/74, a negatively correlated market relationship has existed between U.S. wheat season average cash prices and World wheat % ending stocks-to-use –with what may prove to have been an upward structural an adjustment or “jump” during the MY 2011/12  ̶  MY 2012/13 time period (Figure 12).  Larger World wheat supply-demand balances (i.e., higher percentages of ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower World and U.S. wheat prices, while smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher World and U.S. wheat prices – all else being equal. 

As in Figure 10 earlier, U.S. wheat prices in Figure 12 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).   Whereas the minimum U.S. wheat percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 13.2% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 2007/08, the historic minimum in World wheat percent stocks-to-use occurred in that same marketing year at 20.9%.  World stocks-to-use have not fallen below 25.8% in MY 2012/13.

During the three most recent marketing years, rising World wheat percent ending stocks-to-use levels have been associated with declining U.S. wheat prices.  In MY 2013/14, World % ending stocks-to-use of 27.7% were associated with $6.87 /bu U.S. wheat prices. Then in “old crop” MY 2014/15, World % ending stocks-to-use of 30.0% were associated with $5.99 /bu U.S. wheat prices.  Now in “new crop” MY 2015/16, World % ending stocks-to-use of 32.1% are associated with $5.00 /bu U.S. wheat prices.  In summary, since MY 2013/14 as World % ending stocks-to-use has increased from 27.7% to 29.9% to 32.1% (up 15.9%, i.e., 0.321 / 0.277).  Conversely, U.S. wheat prices have fallen from $6.87 /bu to $5.99 and $5.00 /bu (down 27.2%) before considering U.S. currency exchange rate or inflation adjustments.

If the USDA’s Baseline projection of U.S. Wheat average cash prices of $4.40 /bu holds true for “next crop” MY 2016/17, it implies that World wheat percent ending stocks-to-use for that same future period would be approximately 33.5% - up from 32.1% in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  

Table 1. U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2009/10 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 (December 9 and 14, 2015 USDA Reports & KSU 2015/16 Projections)

Item

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

USDA

2015/16

KSU

Lower Exports

2015/16

KSU

Higher Exports 2015/16

USDA

Baseline Frcst. 2016/17

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

80%

20%

 

Planted Area (million acres)

59.017

52.620

54.277

55.294

56.236

56.841

54.644

54.644

54.644

53.000

Harvested Area (million acres)

49.841

46.883

45.687

48.758

45.332

46.385

47.094

47.094

47.094

44.900

% Harvested/Planted Area

84.5%

89.1%

84.2%

88.2%

80.6%

81.6%

86.2%

86.2%

86.2%

84.7%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

44.3

46.1

43.6

46.2

47.1

43.7

43.6

43.6

43.6

45.9

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks

657

976

863

743

718

590

753

753

753

911

Production

2,209

2,163

1,993

2,252

2,135

2,026

2,052

2,052

2,052

2,060

Imports

119

97

113

124

173

149

125

125

125

125

Total Supply

2,984

3,236

2,969

3,119

3,026

2,766

2,930

2,930

2,930

3,096

 

 

Food Use

919

926

941

951

955

958

967

967

967

974

Seed Use

68

71

76

73

77

81

72

72

72

69

Exports

879

1,291

1,051

1,012

1,176

854

800

**750

**900

900

Feed & Residual Use

142

85

159

365

228

120

180

180

180

225

Total Use

2,008

2,373

2,227

2,401

2,436

2,013

2,019

1,969

2,119

2,168

 

 

Ending Stocks

976

863

743

718

590

753

911

961

811

928

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

48.58%

36.37%

33.35%

29.90%

24.22%

37.41%

45.12%

48.81%

38.27%

42.80%

U.S. Wheat Avg. Farm Price ($/bushel)

$4.87

$5.70

$7.24

 

$7.77

 

$6.87

$5.99

$4.80-$5.20 ($5.00)

$4.85

$5.50

$4.40


Figure 4. U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage – All Winter, Other Spring & Durum Classes (1981-2015) as of December 9, 2015

Figure 5. All Wheat Planted & Harvested Acreage (1973-2016) as of December 14, 2015

 

Figure 6. U.S. All Wheat Yield (1973-2015) and USDA 2016 Early Projection as of December 14, 2015

 

Figure 7. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies for MY 2004/05 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 as of December 14, 2015

 

Figure 8. Trends in U.S. Wheat Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 as of December 14, 2015

 

Figure 9. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks vs U.S. Cash Prices: MY 2004/05 thru “Next Crop” MY 2016/17
(December 9 and 14, 2015 USDA Reports & KSU forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2015/16)

 

Figure 10. U.S. Wheat Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use: MY 1973/74 thru “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 as of December 9 and 14, 2015 USDA reports

 

Figure 11. World Wheat Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “New Crop” MY 2015/16                     
as of December 9, 2015 USDA WASDE Report

 

Figure 12. U.S. Wheat Price vs % World Stocks-to-Use:
MY 1973/74 through Implicit “Next Crop” MY 2016/17, as of December 9 and 14, 2015 USDA Reports

Table 2. World Wheat Production Projections for “New Crop” MY 2015/16, “Old Crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Wheat Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Production: New Crop 2015/16    December 2015

Wheat Production: November 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Production:               December Less November 2015                    

New Crop 2015/16 Production:                Percent (%)         December of November 2015

December Wheat Production: 2014/15          

November  Wheat Production: 2014/15

December Less November  Wheat  Production             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Production             Less 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Production of                         2014/15

Wheat Production: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Production             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Production       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

732.98

732.98

0.00

100.0%

725.34

725.12

0.22

7.64

101.1%

715.26

17.72

102.5%

United States

55.84

55.84

0.00

100.0%

55.15

55.15

0.00

0.69

101.3%

58.11

(2.27)

96.1%

Total Foreign

679.09

677.14

1.95

100.3%

670.20

669.98

0.22

8.89

101.3%

657.16

21.93

103.3%

Major Exporters

221.76

219.77

1.99

100.9%

222.11

222.05

0.06

(0.35)

99.8%

217.92

3.84

101.8%

Argentina

10.50

10.50

0.00

100.0%

12.50

12.50

0.00

(2.00)

84.0%

10.50

0.00

100.0%

Australia

26.00

26.00

0.00

100.0%

23.67

23.67

0.00

2.33

109.8%

25.30

0.70

102.8%

Canada

27.60

26.00

1.60

106.2%

29.42

29.42

0.00

(1.82)

93.8%

37.53

(9.93)

73.5%

European Union

157.66

157.27

0.39

100.2%

156.53

156.47

0.06

1.13

100.7%

114.58

43.08

137.6%

Major Importers

203.56

203.56

0.00

100.0%

196.51

196.48

0.03

7.05

103.6%

194.10

9.46

104.9%

Brazil

6.00

6.00

0.00

100.0%

6.00

6.00

0.00

0.00

100.0%

5.30

0.70

113.2%

China

130.00

130.00

0.00

100.0%

126.21

126.17

0.04

3.79

103.0%

121.93

8.07

106.6%

Selected Middle East

17.86

17.86

0.00

100.0%

17.37

17.37

0.00

0.49

102.8%

18.96

(1.10)

94.2%

North Africa

20.00

20.00

0.00

100.0%

16.90

16.90

0.00

3.10

118.3%

19.72

0.28

101.4%

Pakistan

25.00

25.00

0.00

100.0%

25.50

25.50

0.00

(0.50)

98.0%

24.00

1.00

104.2%

Southeast Asia

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

India

88.94

88.94

0.00

100.0%

95.85

95.85

0.00

(6.91)

92.8%

93.51

(4.57)

95.1%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

117.03

117.03

0.00

100.0%

112.73

112.73

0.00

4.30

103.8%

103.87

13.16

112.7%

Russia

60.50

60.50

0.00

100.0%

59.08

59.08

0.00

1.42

102.4%

52.09

8.41

116.1%

Kazakhstan

14.00

14.00

0.00

100.0%

13.00

13.00

0.00

1.00

107.7%

13.94

0.06

100.4%

Ukraine

27.00

27.00

0.00

100.0%

24.75

24.75

0.00

2.25

109.1%

22.28

4.72

121.2%

Other FSU 12 Countries

15.53

15.53

0.00

100.0%

15.90

15.90

0.00

-0.37

97.7%

15.56

-0.03

99.8%

Table 3. World Wheat Export Projections for “New Crop” MY 2015/16, “Old Crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Wheat Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Exports: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Wheat Exports: December  2014 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Exports:               December Less November 2015                    

New Crop 2015/16 Exports:                Percent (%)         December of November 2015

December Wheat Exports: 2014/15          

November  Wheat Exports: 2014/15

December Less November Wheat  Exports for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Exports Less 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Exports of 2014/15

Wheat Exports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Exports Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Exports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

161.66

160.41

1.25

100.8%

164.37

164.22

0.15

(2.71)

98.4%

165.91

(4.25)

97.4%

United States

21.77

21.77

0.00

100.0%

23.25

23.25

0.00

(1.48)

93.6%

32.00

(10.23)

68.0%

Total Foreign

139.89

138.44

1.45

101.0%

141.12

140.97

0.15

(1.23)

99.1%

133.91

5.98

104.5%

Major Exporters

77.00

76.50

0.50

100.7%

81.62

81.62

0.00

(4.62)

94.3%

76.17

0.83

101.1%

Argentina

6.00

5.00

1.00

120.0%

5.50

5.50

0.00

0.50

109.1%

2.25

3.75

266.7%

Australia

18.00

18.00

0.00

100.0%

16.61

16.61

0.00

1.39

108.4%

18.62

(0.62)

96.7%

Canada

20.50

20.00

0.50

102.5%

24.12

24.12

0.00

(3.62)

85.0%

23.27

(2.77)

88.1%

European Union

32.50

33.50

(1.00)

97.0%

35.40

35.40

0.00

(2.90)

91.8%

32.03

0.47

101.5%

Major Importers

6.91

6.91

0.00

100.0%

7.65

7.65

0.00

(0.74)

90.3%

5.19

1.72

133.1%

Brazil

1.50

1.50

0.00

100.0%

1.69

1.69

0.00

(0.19)

88.8%

0.08

1.42

1875.0%

China

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

0.80

0.80

0.00

0.20

125.0%

0.89

0.11

112.4%

Selected Middle East

0.83

0.83

0.00

100.0%

1.52

1.52

0.00

(0.69)

54.6%

0.50

0.33

166.0%

North Africa

0.65

0.65

0.00

100.0%

0.61

0.61

0.00

0.04

106.6%

0.50

0.15

130.0%

Pakistan

0.60

0.60

0.00

100.0%

0.70

0.70

0.00

(0.10)

85.7%

0.75

(0.15)

80.0%

Southeast Asia

0.96

0.96

0.00

100.0%

0.96

0.96

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.89

0.07

107.9%

India

0.80

0.80

0.00

100.0%

3.40

3.40

0.00

(2.60)

23.5%

6.05

(5.25)

13.2%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

46.16

45.46

0.70

101.5%

40.22

40.22

0.00

5.94

114.8%

37.15

9.01

124.3%

Russia

23.50

23.50

0.00

100.0%

22.80

22.80

0.00

0.70

103.1%

18.57

4.93

126.5%

Kazakhstan

6.50

6.50

0.00

100.0%

5.54

5.54

0.00

0.96

117.3%

8.10

(1.60)

80.2%

Ukraine

15.50

15.00

0.50

103.3%

11.27

11.27

0.00

4.23

137.5%

9.76

5.74

158.8%

Other FSU 12 Countries

0.66

0.46

0.20

143.5%

0.61

0.61

0.00

0.05

108.2%

0.72

-0.06

91.7%

Table 4. World Wheat Import Projections for “New Crop” MY 2015/16, “Old Crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Wheat Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Imports: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Wheat Imports: November  2014 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Imports:               December Less November 2015                    

New Crop 2015/16 Imports:                Percent (%)         December of November 2015

December Wheat Imports: 2014/15          

November  Wheat Imports: 2014/15

December Less November Wheat  Imports for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Imports Less 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Imports of 2014/15

Wheat Imports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Imports             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Imports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

159.20

157.85

1.35

100.9%

158.69

158.69

0.00

0.51

100.3%

158.36

0.84

100.5%

United States

3.40

3.40

0.00

100.0%

4.07

4.07

0.00

(0.67)

83.5%

4.71

(1.31)

72.2%

Total Foreign

155.80

154.45

1.35

100.9%

154.62

154.62

0.00

1.18

100.8%

153.65

2.15

101.4%

Major Exporters

6.67

6.67

0.00

100.0%

6.65

6.65

0.00

0.02

100.3%

4.58

2.09

145.6%

Argentina

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.04

0.04

0.00

(0.01)

75.0%

0.00

0.03

#DIV/0!

Australia

0.15

0.15

0.00

100.0%

0.16

0.16

0.00

(0.01)

93.8%

0.16

(0.01)

93.8%

Canada

0.49

0.49

0.00

100.0%

0.48

0.48

0.00

0.01

102.1%

0.45

0.04

108.9%

European Union

6.00

6.00

0.00

100.0%

5.97

5.97

0.00

0.03

100.5%

3.97

2.03

151.1%

Major Importers

85.47

84.82

0.65

100.8%

84.72

84.72

0.00

0.75

100.9%

87.36

(1.89)

97.8%

Brazil

6.30

6.30

0.00

100.0%

5.37

5.37

0.00

0.93

117.3%

7.07

(0.77)

89.1%

China

2.00

2.00

0.00

100.0%

1.93

1.93

0.00

0.07

103.6%

6.77

(4.77)

29.5%

Selected Middle East

20.65

20.60

0.05

100.2%

21.26

21.26

0.00

(0.61)

97.1%

20.69

(0.04)

99.8%

North Africa

25.60

25.60

0.00

100.0%

25.18

25.18

0.00

0.42

101.7%

25.27

0.33

101.3%

Pakistan

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.75

0.75

0.00

(0.65)

13.3%

0.40

(0.30)

25.0%

Southeast Asia

20.63

20.03

0.60

103.0%

19.91

19.91

0.00

0.72

103.6%

16.41

4.22

125.7%

India

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.05

0.00

0.45

1000.0%

0.03

0.47

1666.7%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

7.34

7.14

0.20

102.8%

7.67

7.67

0.00

(0.33)

95.7%

7.41

(0.07)

99.1%

Russia

0.35

0.35

0.00

100.0%

0.33

0.33

0.00

0.02

106.1%

0.80

(0.45)

43.8%

Kazakhstan

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.60

0.60

0.00

(0.52)

13.3%

0.01

0.07

800.0%

Ukraine

0.05

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.02

166.7%

0.07

(0.02)

71.4%

Other FSU 12 Countries

6.86

6.66

0.20

103.0%

6.71

6.71

0.00

0.15

102.2%

6.53

0.33

105.1%

Table 5. World Wheat Feed Use Projections for “New Crop” MY 2015/16, “Old Crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Wheat Feed Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Feed Use: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Wheat Feed Use: November 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Feed Use: December Less November 2015                    

New Crop 2015/16 Feed Use: Percent (%)         December of November 2015

December Wheat Feed Use: 2014/15          

November  Wheat Feed Use: 2014/15

December Less November Wheat  Feed Use for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Feed Use Less 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Feed Use of 2014/15

Wheat Feed Use: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Feed Use             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Feed Use of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

 

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

138.29

138.62

(0.33)

99.8%

132.60

132.68

(0.08)

5.69

104.3%

126.77

11.52

109.1%

United States

4.90

4.90

0.00

100.0%

3.25

3.25

0.00

1.65

150.8%

6.20

(1.30)

79.0%

Total Foreign

133.40

133.72

(0.32)

99.8%

129.35

129.43

(0.08)

4.05

103.1%

120.57

12.83

110.6%

Major Exporters

64.90

65.90

(1.00)

98.5%

62.69

62.69

0.00

2.21

103.5%

56.90

8.00

114.1%

Argentina

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.30

0.30

0.00

(0.20)

33.3%

0.10

0.00

100.0%

Australia

4.00

4.00

0.00

100.0%

4.10

4.10

0.00

(0.10)

97.6%

3.60

0.40

111.1%

Canada

3.80

3.80

0.00

100.0%

3.79

3.79

0.00

0.01

100.3%

4.20

(0.40)

90.5%

European Union

57.00

58.00

(1.00)

98.3%

54.50

54.50

0.00

2.50

104.6%

49.00

8.00

116.3%

Major Importers

30.62

30.02

0.60

102.0%

30.53

30.53

0.00

0.09

100.3%

28.30

2.32

108.2%

Brazil

0.60

0.60

0.00

100.0%

0.30

0.30

0.00

0.30

200.0%

0.60

0.00

100.0%

China

15.00

15.00

0.00

100.0%

17.00

17.00

0.00

(2.00)

88.2%

16.00

(1.00)

93.8%

Selected Middle East

4.85

4.85

0.00

100.0%

4.45

4.45

0.00

0.40

109.0%

4.92

(0.07)

98.6%

North Africa

2.68

2.68

0.00

100.0%

2.48

2.48

0.00

0.20

108.1%

2.68

0.00

100.0%

Pakistan

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

1.00

1.00

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.60

0.40

166.7%

Southeast Asia

5.59

4.99

0.60

112.0%

4.51

4.51

0.00

1.08

123.9%

2.46

3.13

227.2%

India

4.80

4.80

0.00

100.0%

4.50

4.50

0.00

0.30

106.7%

4.80

0.00

100.0%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

25.33

25.43

(0.10)

99.6%

24.45

24.60

(0.15)

0.88

103.6%

22.65

2.68

111.8%

Russia

13.50

13.50

0.00

100.0%

13.00

13.00

0.00

0.50

103.8%

12.50

1.00

108.0%

Kazakhstan

2.10

2.10

0.00

100.0%

2.00

2.00

0.00

0.10

105.0%

2.00

0.10

105.0%

Ukraine

4.50

4.50

0.00

100.0%

4.00

4.00

0.00

0.50

112.5%

3.40

1.10

132.4%

Other FSU 12 Countries

5.23

5.33

-0.10

98.1%

5.45

5.60

-0.15

-0.22

96.0%

4.75

0.48

110.1%

Table 6. World Wheat Food, Seed & Industrial Use Projections for “New Crop” MY 2015/16, “Old Crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Wheat FSI                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat FSI: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Wheat FSI: November 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 FSI:               December Less November 2015                    

New Crop 2015/16 FSI:                Percent (%)         December of November 2015

December Wheat FSI: 2014/15