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Soybean Market Outlook in Mid-March 2014

March 21, 2014


Summary

When the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on March 10, 2014, both “current crop” MAY 2014 and “next crop” NOV 2014 U.S. soybean market prices initially responded negatively – but have since traded in a volatile pattern due to various market factors. The USDA raised its projections of “current” 2013/14 marketing year U.S. soybean imports and exports, lowered its forecast of domestic crush, made a marginal reduction in “already tight” ending stocks, and raised its projection of U.S. average soybean prices by $0.25 per bushel. 

The soybean market has recently focused on South American soybean production and logistical issues, reports of potential livestock disease and feed demand problems in China, and the ongoing strong pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales.  While MAY 2014 soybean futures have been trading as high as $14.60 per bushel, “next crop” NOV 2014 futures have been trading as nearly as high as $12.00 – reflecting the expectation of a large 2014 South American crop to be harvested and sold into export channels to compete with U.S. exports later in the spring and summer months.

USDA Soybean Projection for “Current” MY 2013/14: With a 5 million bushel (mb) increase in imports to 35 mb, the USDA raised its forecast of “current” MY 2013/14 U.S. soybean total supplies (3.464 billion bushels or ‘bb’ – up 5 mb).  Changes in domestic crush (1.690 bb – down 10 mb), exports (1.530 bb – up 20 mb to a record high), and total use (3.319 bb – up 10 mb), resulted in “current” ending stocks projected at 145 mb (down 5 mb) – still up from 141 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, but down from 169 mb in MY 2011/12.  Projected % ending stocks-to-use of 4.37% are record low compared to 4.55% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 5.35% in MY 2011/12.  The USDA projected U.S. soybean prices for “current” MY 2013/14 to be $12.20-$13.70 /bu (midpoint = $12.95), up $0.25, but still down from the record high of $14.40 in “last year’s” MY 2012/13. 

KSU & USDA U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of 2014 U.S. soybean production and “next crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand and price scenarios are:  a) KSU “Low Production” Scenario: 20% prob., 77.5 ma planted, 76.5 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac yields, a 3.060 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 4.5% S/U, & $14.00-$15.00/bu; b) KSU “Likely Production” Scenario: 60% prob. of 79.0 ma planted, 78.0 ma harvested, 43.0 bu/ac yields, a 3.355 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 7.29% S/U, & $9.90-$10.90/bu; and c) KSU “High Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 80.5 ma planted, 79.5 ma harvested, 45.0 bu/ac yields, a 3.578 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 9.78% S/U, & $8.50-$9.50/bu.  The “next crop” MY 2014/15 projection from the February 21st USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference with updates made by KSU for March 10th WASDE beginning stocks and prices would indicate the following for the coming year: 79.5 ma planted, 78.5 ma harvested, a record high 45.2 bu/ac yield, a 3.550 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 8.16% S/U, & an approximate price of $9.85 /bu.  These initial USDA 2014 U.S. soybean production estimates are subject to change.

World Soybeans: Projected World total supplies of 343 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14 are up from 321 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and from 310 mmt in MY 2011/12.  Projected World soybean ending stocks of 70.6 mmt (26.2% S/U) in “current” MY 2013/14 are up from 57.8 mmt (22.3% S/U) in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and from 53.5 mmt (20.8% S/U) in MY 2011/12, being comparable to a low 19.5% S/U in MY 2008/09.  

Market Perspective: U.S. soybean prices have been supported by Chinese export demand, recent problems in South American soybean production, and by U.S. farmer’s “holding” of soybeans in storage.   Weakness or at least “moderation” in soybean prices is likely to occur in the spring-summer of 2014 if a record high 2014 South American soybean crop is produced and moved into export channels in a timely manner, and if prospects develop through the summer months for a large 2014 U.S. soybean crop to be produced.

I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. March 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees for Wheat, Feedgrains, Rice and Oilseeds released their GRAINS AND OILSEEDS OUTLOOK FOR 2014 at the 2014 Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday, February 21st.  This is the first formal USDA projection of U.S. grain supply-demand factors and prices based on current 2014 market information.  The USDA had released Agricultural Baseline projections through 2023 on February 13th that included a projection for the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with U.S. grain supply-demand and price projections through MY 2023/24.  However, those initial baseline estimates were based on grain market information available in November 2013, and were adjusted by the USDA in its February 21st Agricultural Outlook Conference projections.

On March 10, 2014 the USDA released its monthly March 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing information of importance to U.S. soybean market price prospects.   The USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its monthly March Crop Production report which contained no changes in projected production of U.S. soybeans for 2013 or previous years.  If the USDA follows its past practices, it will not make further adjustments in its projection for U.S. soybean supply-demand and prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 until it releases the May 9th WASDE report. 

However, grain market information concerning a) “current” MY 2013/14 U.S. soybean usage, ending stocks, and prices, and b) foreign soybean supply-demand prospects, has an impact on prospects for U.S. soybean supply-demand and prices during the “next year” 2014/15 marketing year.  In this article the USDA’s U.S. soybean supply-demand and price prospects for the coming 2014/15 marketing year were adjusted using ending stocks estimates from the March WASDE report, with marginal adjustments also made in forecast prices reflecting  changes in “next crop” marketing year ending stocks-to-use.  

I-B. Soybean Futures Trends Since the March 10th Reports

“Last year’s crop” soybean futures market contracts (i.e., May and July 2014 Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures) responded to the information in these March 10th USDA reports by moving lower.  On the day of the report – Monday, March 10th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) MAY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.54 ½ per bushel, and traded as high as $14.56 ¼ and as low as $14.14 during the session, before settling at $14.86 ¾ – down $0.39 for the day (Figure 1).

Figure 1. May 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

Text Box: NOV 2014 CME eSoybean Futures
July 22, 2013 – March 21, 2014
Close of $11.77 ¼ on Fri., March 21

Text Box: MAY 2014 CME eSoybean Futures
July 22, 2013 – March 21, 2014
Close of $14.06 ¾ on Fri., March 21 

  

The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid-session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.   Since then MAY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded in the range from a low of $13.65 ½ on March 12th, up to a high of $14.56 ½ on Thursday, March 20th – before closing at $14.08 ¾ on Friday, March 21st.

“Next year’s crop” soybean futures market contracts (i.e., November 2014 Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures) also responded to the information in these March USDA reports by moving lower.  On the day of the report – Monday, March 10th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) NOV 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $11.84 ¼ per bushel, and traded as high as $11.88 and as low as $11.67 during the session, before settling at $11.76 ½ – down $0.10 ¾ for the day (Figure 1). Since then MAY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded in a relatively narrow range of from a low of $11.67 ¾ on March 12th & 17th, up to a high of $11.98 on Thursday, March 20th – before closing toward the upper end of this range at $11.77 ¼ on Friday, March 21st.

I-C. USDA U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand for the “Current” 2013/14 Marketing Year

U.S. Soybean 2013 Acres, Yield & Production

The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. soybean planted acreage of 76.533 million acres (ma) and of 75.869 ma harvested (Table 1 and Figure 2).  The 2013 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for U.S. soybeans is projected to be 99.13%, up from 98.66% in 2012, and near the average of 98.7% over the 2004-2012 period.  The USDA also maintained its projection of an average 2013 U.S. soybean yield of 43.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) (Table 1 and Figure 3).     

The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. soybean production of 3.289 billion bushels (bb), up 8.4% from 3.034 bb in 2012, and up 6.3% from 3.094 bb in 2011 (Table 1).  If any further changes are eventually to be made in the projection of 2013 U.S. soybean production by the USDA, they may not be done until the 2014 Crop Production Summary in January 2015 if the USDA follows its usual procedures for making such adjustments.

U.S. Soybean Total Supplies in “Current” MY 2013/14

The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “current” MY 2013/14 are 3.464 bb (up 5 mb from February) – resulting from beginning stocks of 141 mb, projected 2013 production of 3.289 bb, and projected imports of 35 mb (up 5 mb) (Table 1).   Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total supplies of U.S. soybeans have been 3.655 bb in MY 2006/07 (the record high), followed by 3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.512 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.495 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.325 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.239 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 3.464 bb in “current” MY 2013/14.   Beginning stocks of 141 mb are the lowest since 138 mb in MY 2009/10, and illustrate the steady tightening of U.S. soybean supplies over the last few years - with 215 mb in beginning stocks in MY 2011/12, 169 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and now a projection of 141 mb in “current” MY 2013/14.

U.S. Soybean Total Use & Use by Category in “Current” MY 2013/14

Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.690 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 are up slightly from 1.689 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and marginally above 1.703 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  The record high amount 1.808 bb of U.S. soybean domestic crushings occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity-wise with 1.803 bb in MY 2007/08. 

U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.530 in “current” MY 2013/14 are up 20 mb from February, up 35 mb from January, up 55 mb from December 2013, and up 80 mb from the November WASDE report of last year (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Beginning in MY 2006/07, U.S. soybean exports were 1.116 bb, followed by 1.159 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd highest on record), 1.501 bb in MY 2010/11 (2nd highest on record), 1.365 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.320 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and now 1.530 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 (the record high if actually attained). 

Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales, as of March 13th, with 32 of 52 weeks (61.5%) of “current” MY 2013/14 complete, 1.437 bb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to 91.4% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.530 bb for “current” MY 2013/14.  United States’ export shipments will need to average only 4.6 mb per week through the remainder of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year to attain the USDA’s March WASDE projection of 1.530 bb.  This compares to U.S. soybean export shipments of 31.7 mb and 41.1 mb which occurred during the weeks ending March 6th and 13th, respectively.   These recent U.S. soybean export shipments were “ahead of pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.530 bb in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.  (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).  

Also as of March 13th an additional 195.0 mb of U.S. soybeans had been sold for future export sales in “current” marketing year.  Adding together 1.437 bb in past shipments plus 195 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.632 bb, or 106.7% of the USDA’s 1.530 bb U.S. soybean export target for “current” MY 2013/14 in the March 10th USDA WASDE report with 61.5% (32/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  

The strong pace of combined shipments and sales motivated the USDA to increase its U.S. soybean export projection in the March 10th WASDE report.  Also, the distinct possibility that the as of yet unshipped U.S. soybean sales could be cancelled before physical shipping actually takes place, motivated the USDA to not raise its forecast of 1.530 bb in exports to a forecast even closer to the 1.632 bb total of shipments plus forward sales.  If this amount of additional U.S. soybean shipments were to actually occur in the MY 2013/14 then there would be an additional 102 mb in U.S. soybean usage (i.e., 1.632 – 1.530 bb = 102 mb). 

As a consequence – with all other U.S. soybean supply-demand factors remaining unchanged – if these additional U.S. soybean exports occurred in “current” MY 2013/14, U.S. soybean ending stocks would drop below 100 mb down to extremely low levels (in the range of 40-50 mb).   This tight of an ending stocks situation for U.S. soybeans in “current” MY 2013/14 (ending August 31, 2014) is not likely to occur, as the U.S. soybean industry would severely ration usage through higher prices in order to avoid it.  However, this illustrates the potential ramifications of all the presently existing U.S. soybean export forward sales actually becoming “physical shipments” in the current 2013/14 marketing year.  The USDA is implicitly anticipating that a major reduction will occur in the pace of U.S. soybean exports in the coming months when South American soybean exports become available in quantity for export shipment.

Consequently, if substantive 2014 South American crop production problems eventually do develop or prove to have occurred in coming months, then a higher figure of 1.550-1.580 bb in U.S. soybean exports for “current” MY 2013/14 is more likely to occur, with such market impacts as a) markedly higher U.S. and World soybean prices, b) additional rationing of U.S. soybean crush and exports, and c) possibly at or below record low U.S. soybean ending stocks (i.e., below 112 mb in MY 2003/13) and percent ending stocks-to-use (below 4.5% in MY 2003/04, MY 2008/09, and MY 2009/10).

Seed and Residual Use:  Forecast seed use of 87 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 is down marginally from 89 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and from 90 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Forecast residual use of 12 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 is up from 1 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and from -2 mb in MY 2011/12.   

Total U.S. Soybean Use: Projected U.S. total use of 3.319 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 is up 10 mb from February, up 15 mb from January, up 44 mb from December, and up 76 mb from November (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total U.S. soybean use has been 3.081 bb in MY 2006/07, 3.056 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.047 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.361 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.280 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.155 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.099 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and is now projected to be 3.319 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 – the largest amount since MY 2009/10. 

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, and Prices in “Current” MY 2013/14

U.S. soybean ending stocks for “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be 145 mb, down 5 mb from December-January-February, and down 25 mb from November 2013.  Projected “current” MY 2013/14 ending stocks of 145 mb are comparable to from 205 mb in MY 2007/08, 138 mb in MY 2008/09, 151 in MY 2009/10, 215 mb in MY 2010/11, 169 mb in MY 2011/12, and 141 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 4.37% for “current” MY 2013/14 U.S. soybeans in the March WASDE report is down marginally from December-January-February, and down from 5.24% in November and a projection of 6.93% in August 2013 (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).  Over the last eight (8) years, U.S. soybean % ending stocks-to-use have been 18.6% in MY 2006/07, 6.71% in MY 2007/08, 4.53% in MY 2008/09, 4.49% in MY 2009/10, 6.55% in MY 2010/11, 5.35% in MY 2011/12, 4.55% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and are now projected to be 4.37% for “current” MY 2013/14. 

U.S. average soybean prices for “current” MY 2013/14 are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $12.20-13.70 /bu (midpoint = $12.95), up $0.25 per bu. on each end of the range from the February 2013 WASDE report (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, U.S. soybean prices have been $6.43 per bushel in MY 2006/07, $10.10 in MY 2007/08, $9.97 in MY 2008/09, $9.59 in MY 2009/10, $11.30 in MY 2010/11, $12.50 in MY 2011/12, a record high of $14.40 in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and now a range midpoint projection of $12.95 / bu in “current” MY 2013/14. 

I-D. Comments on Soybean Market Prospects for the Rest of the “Current” 2013/14 Marketing Year

With a) record large South American soybean supplies in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 coupled with continued expectations of even larger South American soybean supplies in “current” MY 2013/14, and b) the anticipation of continued strength in Chinese soybean import demand in “current” MY 2013/14, U.S. soybean price prospects are mixed in the coming months.  Although recent weather-related soybean production problems in Brazil have caused the USDA to reduce its Brazilian soybean production forecast for “current” MY 2013/14, projected production is still record high.  And although there are reports from China that demand for soybeans to be processed into livestock feed is weakening due to livestock production diseases issues, still the Chinese have been extremely active in World soybean trade to date in 2014.  

Both domestic and export demand for U.S. soybeans are likely to remain strong through the coming weeks until the 2014 South American soybean crop becomes available for export.  Then it is likely that U.S. soybean export demand will decline sharply when large exportable supplies of South American soybeans become available in 2014 – similar to what occurred in the summer of 2013. 

This scenario assumes that there will be continued strength in Chinese soybean import demand, and also that improvements occur in Brazilian grain export logistical problems at their export locations in 2014 in order to avoid the export handling, shipping, and “timeliness of product movement” problems that occurred in early-mid 2013.  The timing and availability of the bulk of exportable South American soybean supplies will again be a key market factor in 2014.  Will the Brazilian export system be able to handle this situation in a more efficient and timely manner than occurred in 2013? 

In conclusion, U.S. soybean prices thus far in 2014 have been supported by a) continued Chinese export demand, b) the emergence of unanticipated 2014 South American soybean production problems that have had at least some negative impact on crop prospects, and c) by the degree to which U.S. farmers are “holding” soybeans in storage unsold rather than selling at lower than anticipated or needed grain prices.   Also, price weakness or at least “moderation” in soybean prices is likely to occur in the spring-summer of 2014 IF a record high 2014 South American soybean crop is produced and moved into export channels in a timely manner, and if prospects develop through the summer months for a large 2014 U.S. soybean crop.

I-E. KSU U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

USDA Projections U.S. Corn Supply-Demand & Price Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

The initial formal USDA projections of 2014 U.S. soybean production along with supply-demand and price prospects were given at the 2014 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 20-21, 2014 in Arlington, Virginia (www.usda.gov/oce/forum).  In recent years there has been a tendency for early season projections of U.S. soybean production by the USDA, private industry analysts, and University Extension Grain Marketing Specialists to be for “full production”, i.e., assuming trend line U.S. soybean yields or better and generally large soybean crops. 

An adjusted version of the “next” 2014/15 marketing year projection for soybeans from the 2014 USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference is provided in Table 1, with lower beginning stocks of 145 mb to match the March 2014 WASDE projection of ending stocks for “current” MY 2013/14.  All other adjustments in total supplies, ending stocks, and percent ending stocks-to-use for MY 2014/15 follow from the change in beginning stocks.  With the availability of updated information in the March 10th WASDE report, projected percent ending stocks-to-use has been reduced to 8.16%.  This compares to the projection of 8.31% ending stocks-to-use released on February 21st at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference, and to 9.75% as projected in the USDA Agricultural Baseline forecasts on February 13th.  With these reductions in projected U.S. soybean ending stocks-to-use, in this article the USDA’s price projection has been adjusted upward to $9.85 per bushel from the projections in both the Agricultural Outlook Conference (i.e., up $0.20 /bu from $9.65/bu), and the baseline Agricultural Projections to 2023 (i.e., up $0.10 /bu from $9.75/bu).

KSU Probability-Based Projections U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand & Price Scenarios for MY 2014/15

Kansas State University forecasts of U.S. soybean supply-demand balances for “next year’s crop” in the 2014/15 marketing year are provided below.   The KSU projections are an effort to reflect the uncertainty that exists in regards to the amount of 2014 U.S. soybean production.  The size of the 2014 U.S. soybean crop will be determined by 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acres on the one hand, and on 2014 U.S. soybean yields on the other.  The 2014 planted acreage projections follow from range of projections that have been made public by various industry and public sources since fall 2013. 

KSU projections of 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage are found in Table 1 and Figure 2.   Projections of 2014 probability-weighted U.S. soybean yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. soybean average prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 based on projections of U.S. soybean % ending stocks-to-use shown in Table 1 and Figure 5.  Three probability-weighted KSU supply-demand and price scenarios for “next crop” MY 2014/15 are given below. 

Finally, it should be noted that the key numbers to focus on in these KSU projections are the forecast size of the 2014 U.S. soybean crop and the projected probability attached to its’ occurrence.  In these projections the low acreage and low yield scenarios were deliberately placed together in Scenario #3 to represent the “low 2014 U.S. soybean production” scenario.  Similarly, the high planted acreage and high yield scenarios are deliberately placed together to represent the “high 2014 production” outcome in scenario #2. 

It is entirely possible – and indeed likely – that if at the end of the 2014 U.S. soybean growing season the U.S. soybean crop size is similar to that projected in either the high or low production scenarios, but for different specific acreage and/or yield outcomes than represented here.

Scenario #1: “Likely” 2014 Yield of 43.0 bu/ac & 79.0 Million Acres Planted – 60% Probability

It is estimated there is a “6 out of 10” or 60% chance of final 2014 U.S. soybean planted acreage being approximately 2.5 million acres more than 2013 U.S. soybean planted acreage of 76.5 million acres (Table 1).   Assuming 2004-2012 average U.S. soybean % harvested-to-planted acreage of 98.7%, 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 78.0 ma. 

Using an average yield of 43.0 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. soybean production would be 3.354 bb, with total U.S. soybean supplies of 3.519 bb, U.S. soybean total usage at 3.280 bb, ending stocks of 239 mb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 7.29% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  U.S. soybean average prices would be forecast in the range of $9.90-$10.90 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $10.40) (Table 1 and Figures 5-6). 

Scenario #2: “Higher” 2014 Production: Yield = 45.0 bu/ac & 80.5 Mln. Ac. Planted – 20% Prob.

It is estimated that there is a “2 out of 10” or 20% chance of final 2014 U.S. soybean planted acreage being 80.5 ma, 4.0 ma more than 2013 U.S. soybean planted acreage of 76.5 million acres (Table 1).   Assuming 2004-2012 average U.S. soybean % harvested-to-planted acreage of 98.7%, 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 79.5 ma. 

Assuming a 2014 U.S. soybean yield of 45.0 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. soybean production would be 3.578 bb, with total U.S. soybean supplies of 3.738 bb, U.S. soybean usage at 3.405 bb, ending stocks of 333 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 9.78% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  U.S. soybean average prices would be forecast to be markedly lower – in the range of $8.50-$9.50 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $9.00) (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

Scenario #3: “Lower” 2014 Production: Yield = 40.0 bu/ac & 90.0 Mln. Ac. Planted – 20% Probability

It is estimated that there is a “2 out of 10” or 20% chance of final 2014 U.S. soybean planted acreage being 77.5 ma, approximately 1.0 ma more than 2013 U.S. soybean planted acreage of 76.5 ma (Table 1).   Assuming 2002-2012 average U.S. soybean % harvested-to-planted acreage of 98.7%, 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 76.5 ma. 

Using a moderately lower U.S. soybean yield of 40.0 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. soybean production would be 3.060 bb, with total U.S. soybean supplies of 3.235 bb, U.S. soybean usage at 3.095 bb, ending stocks of 140 mb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 4.5% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  U.S. soybean average prices would be forecast to be in the range of $14.00-$15.00 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $14.50) (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

II. World Soybean Supply-Demand Trends

World soybean production is projected to increase 6.7% in “current” 2013/14 marketing year over “last year’s” MY 2012/13.  With increased available World soybean total supplies (343.2 mmt, up 6.9% from 321.0 mmt a year ago), World soybean total use is projected to increase by 4.2% in “current” MY 2013/14 over the previous year. 

Since early 2013 U.S. soybean markets have been driven by a) record large 2013 South American soybean supplies – albeit with logistical shipping problems in Brazilian ports that delayed exports, b) uncertain 2013 U.S. soybean production prospects through the spring planting season and summer months – culminating in what ultimately became a “large crop” in the fall of 2013, and c) ongoing strength of World soybean and soybean product import demand from China and other countries – partly driven by a lower selling prices. 

At this point in year 2014, South American soybean production and logistical concerns have become a factor in the World soybean market – particularly with regard to Brazilian production and nagging Argentine port problems.  In addition, market expectations are for a large increase in U.S. soybean planted acreage in the spring of 2014, with the possibility of a large 2014 U.S. soybean crop and lower soybean prices at harvest.

II-A. World Soybean Production by Country / Region

Projected World soybean production of 285.4 mmt for “current” MY 2013/14 is down 2.3 mmt from February, but would still be a record high.  This amount is higher than the previous record of 267.5 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13;  the recent low of 239.6 mmt in MY 2011/12; and the range of 212-264 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean production is projected to be 195.9 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 6.0% from 184.9 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 26.1% from 155.4 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major soybean producing countries or regions in the World in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases are projected in most major producing countries or regions in “current” MY 2013/14 except for China and Paraguay.  In “current” MY 2013/14, United States (89.5 mmt – up 7.0 mmt for the year) is projected to be the largest World producer of soybeans, followed by Brazil (88.5 mmt – up 6.5 mmt from last year’s record high of 82.0 mmt), Argentina (54.0 mmt – up 4.7 mmt vs a year ago), China (12.2 mmt – down 0.85 mmt), and Paraguay (8.1 mmt – down 0.2 mmt).

II-B. World Soybean Exports by Country / Region

Global soybean exports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be a 108.2 mmt, down 1.1 mmt from February.  This amount of World soybean exports is also up 8.6% from 99.7 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 17.3% from 92.3 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean exports are projected to be 66.6 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 4.5% from 63.7 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 20.8% from 55.1 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major soybean exporting countries or regions in the World in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year and also for “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in soybean exports in MY 2013/14 are projected for Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, while Paraguay soybean exports are forecast to decline.  The largest projected exporter of soybeans in “current” MY 2013/14 is Brazil (45.0 mmt – up 3.1 mmt from a year ago), followed by the United States (41.6 mmt – up 5.7 mmt vs last year), Argentina (8.0 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), and Paraguay (4.3 mmt – down 1.0 mmt).

II-C. World Soybean Imports by Country / Region

Global soybean imports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be 105.3 mmt, unchanged from February, while being up 10.6% from 95.2 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 12.7% from 93.4 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean imports are projected to be 104.4 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 10.8% from 94.2 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 12.3% from 93.0 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major soybean importing countries or regions in the World in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in soybean imports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for the China and Mexico, while imports are forecast to be lower to the European Union, and marginally lower to Japan.  China is projected to be the largest World soybean importer, with “current” MY 2013/14 soybean imports increasing to 69.0 mmt – up 9.1 mmt from a year ago.  China is followed by the European Union (12.3 mmt – down 0.2 mmt), Mexico (3.65 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), and Japan (2.9 mmt – down 0.01 mmt). 

II-D. World Soybean Domestic Crush by Country / Region

Global soybean domestic crush in “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be a 239.0 mmt, up 0.3 mmt from February, while being up 4.3% from 229.1 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 4.8% from 228.0 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean domestic crush is projected to be 193.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, up 5.4% from 183.1 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 6.3% from 181.7 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of soybean domestic crush in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in soybean crush use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for nearly all major importing and exporting countries except for the European Union (28 countries).  China (68.4 mmt – up 3.4 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans for domestic crushing in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by the United States (46.0 mmt – up 0.02 mmt), Brazil (37.3 mmt – up 2.8 mmt), Argentina (36.6 mmt – up 3.0 mmt), the European Union (12.35 mmt – down 0.39 mmt), Mexico (3.9 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), Paraguay (3.7 mmt – up 0.8 mmt), and Japan (2.0 mmt – up 0.1 mmt).  

II-E. World Soybean Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean use of 269.7 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14 is up 0.4 mmt from February and a record high.  This amount of World soybean use is up 4.2% from the previous record of 258.8 mmt for “last year’s” MY 2012/13, up 4.7% from 257.6 mmt in MY 2011/12; and up from the range of 221-252 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 6 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean total use is projected to be 221.0 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 5.1% from 210.4 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 5.8% from 208.9 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of soybean total use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in soybean total use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for all major producing and using countries except the European Union (28 countries).  China (79.7 mmt – up 3.5 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans for domestic crushing in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by the United States (48.7 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), Brazil (40.4 mmt – up 2.9 mmt), Argentina (38.6 mmt – up 3.1 mmt), the European Union (13.3 mmt – down 0.4 mmt), Mexico (3.9 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), Paraguay (3.8 mmt – up 0.8 mmt), and Japan (3.1 mmt, up 0.1 mmt). 

II-F. World Soybean Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World soybean ending stocks of 70.6 mmt for “current” MY 2013/14 are down 2.4 mmt from February, up 22.2% from 57.8 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, up 32.0% from 53.5 mmt in MY 2011/12, and above the range of 43-70 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2010/11 period (Table 7 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks are projected to be 66.7 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 23.6% from 54.0 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 36.4% from 48.9 mmt in MY 2011/12.

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean ending stocks in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in soybean ending stocks in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, China, and the European Union, with decreased or minimal change in ending stocks projected for Paraguay, Japan and Mexico.  Argentina (29.8 mmt – up 7.4 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World holder of soybean ending stocks in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by Brazil (19.2 mmt – up 3.3 mmt), China (13.7 mmt – up 1.3 mmt), the United States (4.0 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), Paraguay (0.16 mmt – down 0.01 mmt), the European Union (0.5 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), Japan (0.2 mmt – down 0.02 mmt), and Mexico (0.09 mmt – up 0.04 mmt). 

II-G. World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Forecast World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 26.2% in “current” MY 2013/14 is down from 27.1% in February.  However, it represents a 3 year high, being up from 22.3% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 20.8% in MY 2011/12, and is comparable to 27.9% in MY 2010/11, 25.6% in MY 2009/10, 19.5% in MY 2008/09, and 22.9% in MY 2007/08 (Table 8).  The minimum level of World soybean % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1960s occurred in MY 1976/77 (6.9% S/U), MY 1996/97 (11.8% S/U), and 12.6% S/U in MY 1978/79.  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 19.5% in MY 2008/09 is the lowest since 19.3% in MY 2001/02.  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 23.2% in “current” MY 2013/14, up from 19.7% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up from 18.5% in MY 2011/12.

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean ending stocks-to-use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in soybean ending stocks-to-use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for the Argentina, Brazil, China, the European Union, and Mexico, with decreased or minimal change in ending stocks projected for United States, Paraguay, and Japan.  Argentina (64.0% S/U – up from 51.7% a year ago) is projected to be the largest World holder of soybean ending stocks-to-use in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by Brazil (22.5% – up from 20.1%), China (17.2% – up from 16.2%), Japan (6.5% – down from 7.3%), the United States (4.4% – down from 4.5%), the European Union (3.7% – up from 2.3%), Mexico (2.3% – up from 1.4%), and Paraguay (2.0% – unchanged). 

Table 1. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2007/08 through KSU Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

 (March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

USDA

March 2014 2013/14

USDA

Adj. Feb. 21 Ag Outlook 2014/15

KSU 2014/15

Low Yield 77.5 mln ac. 

KSU 2014/15

Exptd Yield

79.0 mln ac. 

KSU 2014/15

Exptd Yield

80.5 mln ac. 

Percent Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20%

60%

20%

Planted Area (million acres)

75.7

77.5

77.4

75.0

77.2

76.5

79.5

77.5

79.0

80.5

Harvested Area (million acres)

74.7

76.4

76.6

73.8

76.2

75.9

78.5

76.5

78.0

79.5

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.6%

98.6%

99.0%

98.3%

98.6%

99.1%

98.7%

98.7%

98.7%

98.7%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

39.7

44.0

43.5

41.9

39.8

43.3

45.2

40.0

43.0

45.0

 

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks

205

138

151

215

169

141

*145

145

145

145

Production

2,967

3,359

3,329

3,094

3,034

3,289

3,550

3,060

3,354

3,578

Imports

13

15

14

16

36

35

15

30

20

15

Total Supply

3,185

3,512

3,495

3,325

3,239

3,464

*3,710

3,235

3,519

3,738

Domestic Crushings

1,662

1,752

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,690

1,725

1,650

1,725

1,750

Exports

1,279

1,499

1,501

1,365

1,320

1,530

1,600

1,350

1,450

1,550

Seed

90

90

87

90

89

87

89

90

90

90

Residual

16

20

43

-2

1

12

16

5

15

15

Total Use

3,047

3,361

3,280

3,155

3,099

3,319

3,430

3,095

3,280

3,405

Ending Stocks

138

151

215

169

141

145

*285

140

239

333

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.53%

4.49%

6.55%

5.36%

4.55%

4.37%

*8.16%

4.52%

7.29%

9.78%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$9.97

$9.59

 

$11.30

$12.50

$14.40

$12.20-$13.70

($12.70)

*$9.85

$14.00-$15.00

($14.50)

$9.90-$10.90

($10.40)

$8.50-$9.50

($9.00)

Figure 2. U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage (2004-2014) with 2014 KSU Projections

Figure 3. U.S. Soybean Yield Trend (1973-2014) and KSU 2014 Projections

Text Box: 2014 Trend Yield = 44.3 (1973-2013 Series)
43.5 bu/ac

Figure 4. Trends in U.S. Soybean Use and Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 - “Current” MY 2013/14

                    (March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Figure 5. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 – “Next Crop” 2014/15                   
February 21 & March 10, 2014 USDA Reports, with KSU projections for “next crop” MY 2014/15


Figure 6. U.S. Soybean Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use
(MY 1973/74 through “Next Crop” MY 2014/15)

Text Box: USDA “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
8.16% S/U @ $9.85 /bu
Text Box: KSU “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
7.29% S/U
 $10.40 /bu

 

Text Box: 2011/12

Figure 7. World Soybean Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “Current” MY 2013/14                       
(March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: Soybean Production
285 mmt in MY 2013/14 is record high
Text Box: Soybean Trade
108 mmt in     MY 2013/14 is ñ5.17 mmt/yr (+6.7%/yr) since 2008/09 
Text Box: Soybean 
End Stocks
70.6 mmt in MY 2013/14
 
43-71 mmt
since 2007/08
 
Text Box: Soybean Usage
ñ8.0 mmt/yr (+3.6%/yr) since 2008/09

 

Table 2. World Soybean Production Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Soybean Production                                              by Major Country / Region

Soybean Production: "Current" 2013/14     March ‘14

Soybean Production: February ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Production:               March ‘14 Less February ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14 Production:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               February ‘14

Soybean Production: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Production             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14 Production of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13 Production

Soybean Production: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Production             Less                     2011/12 Production

% "Current" 2013/14 Production       of                         2011/12 Production

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

285.43

287.69

(2.26)

99.2%

267.47

17.96

106.7%

239.57

45.86

119.1%

United States

89.51

89.51

0.00

100.0%

82.56

6.95

108.4%

84.19

5.32

106.3%

Total Foreign

195.93

198.19

(2.26)

98.9%

184.91

11.02

106.0%

155.38

40.55

126.1%

Major Exporters

153.72

156.42

(2.70)

98.3%

142.60

11.12

107.8%

113.37

40.35

135.6%

Argentina

54.00

54.00

0.00

100.0%

49.30

4.70

109.5%

40.10

13.90

134.7%

Brazil

88.50

90.00

(1.50)

98.3%

82.00

6.50

107.9%

66.50

22.00

133.1%

Paraguay

8.10

9.30

(1.20)

87.1%

8.30

(0.20)

97.6%

4.04

4.06

200.5%

Major Importers

14.95

14.83

0.12

100.8%

15.49

(0.54)

96.5%

17.04

(2.09)

87.7%

China

12.20

12.20

0.00

100.0%

13.05

(0.85)

93.5%

14.49

(2.29)

84.2%

European Union - 28 Countries

1.25

1.13

0.12

110.6%

1.00

0.25

125.0%

1.22

0.03

102.5%

Japan

0.21

0.21

0.00

100.0%

0.22

(0.01)

95.5%

0.22

(0.01)

95.5%

Mexico

0.28

0.28

0.00

100.0%

0.25

0.03

112.0%

0.21

0.07

133.3%

 

Table 3. World Soybean Export Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Soybean Exports                                                    by Major Country / Region

Soybean Exports: "Current" 2013/14     March ‘14

Soybean Exports: February ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Exports:               March ‘14 Less February ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14 Exports:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               February ‘14

Soybean Exports: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Exports             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14 Exports of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13 Exports

Soybean Exports: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Exports             Less                     2011/12 Exports

% "Current" 2013/14 Exports           of                         2011/12 Exports

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

108.22

109.33

(1.11)

99.0%

99.65

8.57

108.6%

92.27

15.95

117.3%

United States

41.64

41.10

0.54

101.3%

35.91

5.73

116.0%

37.15

4.49

112.1%

Total Foreign

66.58

68.23

(1.65)

97.6%

63.74

2.84

104.5%

55.12

11.46

120.8%

Major Exporters

60.34

61.84

(1.50)

97.6%

57.84

2.50

104.3%

49.86

10.48

121.0%

Argentina

8.00

8.00

0.00

100.0%

7.74

0.26

103.4%

7.37

0.63

108.5%

Brazil

45.00

45.00

0.00

100.0%

41.90

3.10

107.4%

36.32

8.68

123.9%

Paraguay

4.30

5.80

(1.50)

74.1%

5.30

(1.00)

81.1%

3.57

0.73

120.4%

Major Importers

0.34

0.34

0.00

100.0%

0.39

(0.05)

87.2%

0.36

(0.02)

94.4%

China

0.23

0.23

0.00

100.0%

0.27

(0.04)

85.2%

0.28

(0.05)

82.1%

European Union - 28 Countries

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.09

(0.01)

88.9%

0.06

0.02

133.3%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

 

Table 4. World Soybean Import Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Soybean Imports                                               by Major Country / Region

Soybean Imports: "Current" 2013/14      March ‘14

Soybean Imports:

February ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Imports:               March ‘14 Less Feb. ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14 Imports:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               February ‘14

Soybean Imports:    "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Imports             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14 Imports of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13 Imports

Soybean Imports: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Imports             Less                     2011/12 Imports

% "Current" 2013/14 Imports         of   2011/12 Imports

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

105.34

105.33

0.01

100.0%

95.23

10.11

110.6%

93.43

11.91

112.7%

United States

0.95

0.82

0.13

115.9%

0.98

(0.03)

96.9%

0.44

0.51

215.9%

Total Foreign

104.39

104.52

(0.13)

99.9%

94.24

10.15

110.8%

92.99

11.40

112.3%

Major Exporters

0.17

0.17

0.00

100.0%

0.42

(0.25)

40.5%

0.15

0.02

113.3%

Argentina

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.15

0.15

0.00

100.0%

0.40

(0.25)

37.5%

0.13

0.02

115.4%

Paraguay

0.02

0.02

0.00

100.0%

0.02

0.00

100.0%

0.02

0.00

100.0%

Major Importers

93.62

93.62

0.00

100.0%

84.22

9.40

111.2%

83.48

10.14

112.1%

China

69.00

69.00

0.00

100.0%

59.87

9.13

115.2%

59.23

9.77

116.5%

European Union - 28 Countries

12.30

12.30

0.00

100.0%

12.51

(0.21)

98.3%

12.07

0.23

101.9%

Japan

2.86

2.86

0.00

100.0%

2.87

(0.01)

99.7%

2.76

0.10

103.6%

Mexico

3.65

3.65

0.00

100.0%

3.35

0.30

109.0%

3.61

0.04

101.1%

 

Table 5. World Soybean Domestic Crush for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, & MY 2011/12

World Soybean Crush                                              by Major Country / Region

Soybean         Crush: "Current" 2013/14      March ‘14

Soybean Crush:         February ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14   Crush:               March ‘14 Less Feb. ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14   Crush:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               February ‘14

Soybean        Crush: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14    Crush             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14   Crush of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13   Crush

Soybean        Crush: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14    Crush             Less                     2011/12   Crush

% "Current" 2013/14   Crush of                         2011/12   Crush

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

239.04

238.75

0.29

100.1%

229.10

9.94

104.3%

228.02

11.02

104.8%

United States

45.99

46.27

(0.28)

99.4%

45.97

0.02

100.0%

46.35

(0.36)

99.2%

Total Foreign

193.05

192.48

0.57

100.3%

183.13

9.92

105.4%

181.67

11.38

106.3%

Major Exporters

77.60

77.20

0.40

100.5%

71.01

6.59

109.3%

74.94

2.66

103.5%

Argentina

36.60

36.60

0.00

100.0%

33.61

2.99

108.9%

35.89

0.71

102.0%

Brazil

37.28

37.28

0.00

100.0%

34.48

2.80

108.1%

38.08

(0.80)

97.9%

Paraguay

3.70

3.30

0.40

112.1%

2.90

0.80

127.6%

0.95

2.75

389.5%

Major Importers

90.03

89.91

0.12

100.1%

86.59

3.44

104.0%

82.16

7.87

109.6%

China

68.35

68.35

0.00

100.0%

64.95

3.40

105.2%

60.97

7.38

112.1%

European Union - 28 Countries

12.35

12.23

0.12

101.0%

12.74

(0.39)

96.9%

12.25

0.10

100.8%

Japan

2.02

2.02

0.00

100.0%

1.92

0.10

105.2%

1.96

0.06

103.1%

Mexico

3.85

3.85

0.00

100.0%

3.65

0.20

105.5%

3.68

0.17

104.6%


Table 6. World Soybean Total Use for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Soybean Total Use

by Major Country / Region

Soybean          Total Use: "Current" 2013/14      March ‘14

Soybean          Total Use

 February ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14 TOTAL USE:               March ‘14 Less Feb. ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14 TOTAL USE:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               February ‘14

Soybean TOTAL USE: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14 TOTAL USE           Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14 TOTAL USE of "Last year’s" 2012/13   TOTAL USE

Soybean TOTAL USE: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14 TOTAL USE             Less                     2011/12 TOTAL USE

% "Current" 2013/14 TOTAL USE of                         2011/12 TOTAL USE

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

269.70

269.34

0.36

100.1%

258.77

10.93

104.2%

257.58

12.12

104.7%

United States

48.69

48.96

(0.27)

99.4%

48.42

0.27

100.6%

48.72

(0.03)

99.9%

Total Foreign

221.01

220.37

0.64

100.3%

210.35

10.66

105.1%

208.86

12.15

105.8%

Major Exporters

82.91

82.61

0.30

100.4%

76.19

6.72

108.8%

79.96

2.95

103.7%

Argentina

38.60

38.60

0.00

100.0%

35.55

3.05

108.6%

37.75

0.85

102.3%

Brazil

40.38

40.38

0.00

100.0%

37.48

2.90

107.7%

41.03

(0.65)

98.4%

Paraguay

3.83

3.53

0.30

108.5%

3.06

0.77

125.2%

1.08

2.75

354.6%

Major Importers

106.93

106.81

0.12

100.1%

103.13

3.80

103.7%

98.85

8.08

108.2%

China

79.65

79.65

0.00

100.0%

76.18

3.47

104.6%

72.07

7.58

110.5%

European Union - 28 Countries

13.27

13.15

0.12

100.9%

13.64

(0.37)

97.3%

13.23

0.04

100.3%

Japan

3.09

3.09

0.00

100.0%

3.00

0.09

103.0%

3.01

0.08

102.7%

Mexico

3.89

3.89

0.00

100.0%

3.69

0.20

105.4%

3.71

0.18

104.9%

 

Table 7. World Soybean Ending Stocks for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Soybean Ending Stocks

by Major Country / Region

Soybean          End Stocks: "Current" 2013/14      March ‘14

Soybean          End Stocks:         February ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14     End Stocks:               March ‘14 Less Feb. ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14     End Stocks:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               February ‘14

Soybean          End Stocks: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14     End Stocks             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14     End Stocks of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13   End Stocks

Soybean           End Stocks: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14     End Stocks             Less                     2011/12     End Stocks

% "Current" 2013/14     End Stocks of                         2011/12     End Stocks

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

70.64

73.01

(2.37)

96.8%

57.79

12.85

122.2%

53.51

17.13

132.0%

United States

3.95

4.09

(0.14)

96.6%

3.83

0.12

103.1%

4.61

(0.66)

85.7%

Total Foreign

66.69

68.92

(2.23)

96.8%

53.97

12.72

123.6%

48.90

17.79

136.4%

Major Exporters

49.19

51.39

(2.20)

95.7%

38.55

10.64

127.6%

29.56

19.63

166.4%

Argentina

29.81

29.81

0.00

100.0%

22.40

7.41

133.1%

16.39

13.42

181.9%

Brazil

19.20

20.70

(1.50)

92.8%

15.93

3.27

120.5%

12.92

6.28

148.6%

Paraguay

0.16

0.86

(0.70)

18.6%

0.17

(0.01)

94.1%

0.21

(0.05)

76.2%

Major Importers

14.92

14.92

0.00

100.0%

13.32

1.60

112.0%

17.12

(2.20)

87.1%

China

13.70

13.70

0.00

100.0%

12.38

1.32

110.7%

15.91

(2.21)

86.1%

European Union - 28 Countries

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.31

0.19

161.3%

0.54

(0.04)

92.6%

Japan

0.20

0.20

0.00

100.0%

0.22

(0.02)

90.9%

0.13

0.07

153.8%

Mexico

0.09

0.09

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.04

180.0%

0.13

(0.04)

69.2%

 

Table 8. World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use

by Major Country / Region

Soybean          End Stx/Use: "Current" 2013/14      March ‘14

Soybean          End Stx/Use:         February ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14     End Stx/Use:               March ‘14 Less Feb. ‘14                     

"Current" 2013/14     End Stx/Use:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               February ‘14

Soybean          End Stx/Use: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14     End Stx/Use             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14     End Stx/Use of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13

Soybean           End Stx/Use: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14     End Stx/Use             Less                     2011/12     End Stx/Use

% "Current" 2013/14     End Stx/Use of                         2011/12     End Stx/Use

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

26.2%

27.1%

-0.9%

96.6%

22.3%

3.9%

117.3%

20.8%

5.4%

126.1%

United States

4.4%

4.5%

-0.2%

96.3%

4.5%

-0.2%

96.3%

5.4%

-1.0%

81.5%

Total Foreign

23.2%

23.9%

-0.7%

97.1%

19.7%

3.5%

117.8%

18.5%

4.7%

125.2%

Major Exporters

34.3%

35.6%

-1.2%

96.5%

28.8%

5.6%

119.4%

22.8%

11.6%

150.8%

Argentina

64.0%

64.0%

0.0%

100.0%

51.7%

12.2%

123.6%

36.3%

27.6%

176.1%

Brazil

22.5%

24.2%

-1.8%

92.8%

20.1%

2.4%

112.1%

16.7%

5.8%

134.6%

Paraguay

2.0%

9.2%

-7.2%

21.4%

2.0%

-0.1%

96.8%

4.5%

-2.5%

43.6%

Major Importers

13.9%

13.9%

0.0%

99.9%

12.9%

1.0%

108.1%

17.3%

-3.3%

80.6%

China

17.2%

17.2%

0.0%

100.0%

16.2%

1.0%

105.9%

22.0%

-4.8%

78.0%

European Union - 28 Countries

3.7%

3.8%

0.0%

99.1%

2.3%

1.5%

165.9%

4.1%

-0.3%

92.2%

Japan

6.5%

6.5%

0.0%

100.0%

7.3%

-0.9%

88.3%

4.3%

2.2%

149.9%

Mexico

2.3%

2.3%

0.0%

100.0%

1.4%

1.0%

170.7%

3.5%

-1.2%

66.0%

 

Dan O'Brien
Extension Grain Economist
Department of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
dobrien@ksu.edu
 
Department of Agricultural Economics   K-State Research & Extension   College of Agriculture   Kansas State University