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Soybean Market Outlook in February 2015

February 23, 2015


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on February 10th, MAR 2015 and NOV 2015 soybean futures prices have traded generally higher, raising hopes that seasonal lows in January-mid February have occurred, and that cash prices may eventually move higher into the spring and provide returns to storage for U.S. crop producers resisting sales at sub-$10.00 cash prices.  With 1) record high 2014 South American and U.S. soybean crops, and 2) prospects for record or near-record South American and U.S. soybean production and ending stocks again in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, prospects for a soybean futures price rally above say $11.00 appear limited – unless unexpected and substantial crop production or export availability problems occur in the U.S. or abroad.  Absent these occurrences, price prospects seem limited until at least May-June 2015 - the main U.S. soybean planting season.  After that, 2015 U.S. soybean production prospects are likely to seasonally influence soybean market prices through the remainder of this calendar year.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA maintained its forecast of record 2014 U.S. soybean production of 3.969 billion bushels (bb) – up 611 million bushels (mb) from 3.358 bb in 2013.  For “current crop” MY 2014/15, USDA raised by 10 mb its projections of U.S. imports (25 mb) and total supplies (4.086 bb).  Soybean crush was raised by 10 mb (1.795 bb) and exports by 20 mb (1.790 bb), with a 35 mb increase in total use (3.701 bb), leading to 35 mb decrease ending stocks (385 mb).   Ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 10.4% - down from 11.2% last month, but up from the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14.  The USDA forecast “current crop” MY 2014/15 prices to be in the range $9.45-$10.95 with a midpoint of $10.20 /bu – down from $13.00 a year ago in MY 2013/14, and from the record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13.  

USDA & KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16: In the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum the USDA projected the following for 2015 and “next crop” MY 2015/16: 83.5 ma planted, 82.6 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 3.800 bb production, 4.205 bb total supplies, 3.775 bb total use, 430 mb ending stocks, 11.39% S/U, and $9.00 /bu price.  At this time the key market factor to assess in regards to U.S. soybean production and supply-demand prospects for “next crop” MY 2015/16 is the amount of U.S. soybean acres to be planted in 2015. The USDA’s forecast of 2015 planted area is 1-3 million acres less than trade expectations. 

Alternative KSU forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are as follows: 

A) KSU “Same Acreage” Scenario: 40% prob. of 83.701 ma planted (same as 2014), 82.692 ma harvested, trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.729 bb 2015 production, 4.129 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.730 bb total use, 399 mb end stocks (vs 385 mb in 2014/15), 10.70% ending S/U (vs 11.40%), & $10.10 /bu (vs $10.20 last year).

B) KSU “Up 2 Million Acres” Scenario: 60% prob. of 85.701 ma planted (up 2.0 ma) and 84.668 ma harvested (up 1.607 ma), trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.818 bb 2015 production, 4.218 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.760 bb total use, 458 mb end stocks, 12.18% ending S/U, & $9.60 /bu.  

World Soybean Supply-Demand: Record high projected World soybean production of 315.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up from 283.7 mmt in MY 2013/14, and from 268.8 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Record high projected World soybean ending stocks of 89.3 mmt (31.9% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 66.25 mmt (24.3% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and up from 57.3 mmt (21.9 % S/U) in MY 2012/13.  Forecast South American “current crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production that will be harvested in early 2015 is as follows: Brazil (94.5 mmt – up 7.8 mmt from a year earlier), Argentina (56.0 mmt – up 2.0 mmt), and Paraguay (8.5 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), totaling 159.0 mmt (up 10.1 mmt or 6.8% from 148.9 mmt last year). 


I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. February USDA Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections

On February 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its February 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply-demand and price projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. soybean marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015. 

In addition, the USDA provided its initial projection for the U.S. and World soybean supply-demand conditions and prices for the “next crop” 2015/16 marketing year at its 2015 Agricultural Outlook Conference, February 19-20, 2015 in Arlington, Virginia.

I-B. Updated Comments on Predominant Soybean Market Trends

The activities of the World soybean market in over the last 3-5 years can be better understood if a person recognizes several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade.  The primary countries involved in these predominant trends have been China on the demand side and South American countries and the United States on the supply side.

Uptrends in Chinese Soybean Usage & Imports

Chinese soybean domestic use and imports of soybeans have been the key market demand “driver in World soybean markets in recent years.   Chinese soybean domestic usage has increased from 76.2 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (29.2% of World use), up to 80.3 mmt in MY 2013/14 (29.4% of World use), and now up to a projected level of 86.2 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (29.9% of World use).  Chinese soybean domestic usage in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up 7.3% over last year, and 13.2% over two years ago.

Chinese domestic production of soybeans relative to domestic use was 13.05 mmt in MY 2012/13 (17.1% of total use), 12.2 mmt in MY 2013/14 (15.2% of usage), and 12.35 mmt in MY 2014/15 (14.3% of use).  With domestic production declining as a proportion of total use over the last three marketing years, China has been forced to rely even more heavily on sizable amounts of soybean imports to fill domestic use needs.  

Chinese soybean imports were estimated to be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13 (62.4% of World soybean imports), and 70.4 mb in MY 2013/14 (63.5% of the World total), and are projected to be 74.0 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (65.1% of the World total).  Chinese soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 5.2% over last year, and 23.6% over two years ago.

Recent Trends in Major South American Country’s Soybean Production & Exports

There have been two successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean production in MY 2012/13 (139.5 mmt) and MY 2013/14 (148.9 mmt), with a third successive increase projected from “current crop” MY 2014/15 at 159.0 mmt.  Soybean production from these three key South American countries has amounted to 51.9% of World production in MY 2012/13, 52.5% in MY 2013/14, and is projected to make up 50.5% of the World total in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  Combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean production is projected to be up 6.8% over MY 2013/14, and up 14.0% over MY 2012/13 respectively, over the three most recent marketing years.

South American soybean exports have grown in a manner similar to production over this same period. There have been two successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean exports – starting from MY 2012/13 (55.2 mmt) into MY 2013/14 (59.1 mmt), with a small decrease projected from “current crop” MY 2014/15 at 58.5 mmt.  Total soybean exports from these three key South American countries as a proportion of World exports has actually trended lower in recent years, amounting to 54.9% of total World exports in MY 2012/13, to 52.4% in MY 2013/14, and is now projected to make up 49.9% of the World total in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  Combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean exports are projected to be down 0.9% in MY 2013/14 from “current year” MY 2014/15, and up 6.1% from MY 2012/13.  This short term decline in combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay exports as a proportion of World soybean trade has been offset by increases in United States’ exports.

Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports

The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this same three period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt in MY 2013/14 (32.2% of World total), and 108.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (34.3% of the World total).   United States’ soybean production in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up 18.2% over last year, and up 30.5% over two years ago.

United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8 mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.8% of World total), and a projected amount of 48.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (41.6% of the World total).  United States’ soybean exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 8.7% over last year, and up 35.9% over two years ago.

The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand

It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the historically high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year.  Market  analysts have speculated that Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine industry production issues or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors within the country.  However, the USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16, and beyond.  If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports and import demand were to falter, it would undoubtably have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices. 

As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014, cash soybean prices had fallen below $9.00 per bushel in late November, but have since moved higher.  Central Kansas Terminal cash bids were in the range of $9.44 ¼ ($0.55 under basis) to $9.54 ¼ ($0.45 under basis) on Friday, February 20th.   Soybean forward contract prices for fall harvest in October 2015 in the key central Kansas market of Hutchinson, Kansas were $8.99 / bu. ($0.81 under basis).  “Current crop” MARCH 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.99 ¼ per bushel that day, with “next year’s crop” NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures closing at $9.80 per bushel. 

Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16 indicate that a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be harvested in early-mid 2015 will again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in these projected trends in production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market.   The possibility of weather-related soybean production problems in South America during the spring of 2015, or in the United States during the summer-fall of 2015 could impact these trends.  However, until such potential production problems actually do occur the World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the foreseeable future.

I-C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the February 10th USDA Reports

“Current crop” MARCH 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the information in the February 10th USDA reports (Figure 1).  On the day of the reports CME MARCH 2015 futures prices opened at $9.78 ¼ /bu, and traded as high as $9.86 and as low as $9.67 during the session, before settling at $9.69 – down $0.09 ½ for the day.   Since then MARCH 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a low of $9.66 on February 11th, to a high of $10.17 on February 19th before closing at $9.98 ¾ on Friday, February 20th.     

Figure 1. MAR 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

 

“Next crop” NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures contract prices also responded in a negative manner to the information in the February 10th USDA reports (Figure 1).  On the day of the reports CME NOVEMBER 2015 futures prices opened at $9.64 ½ /bu, and traded as high as $9.69 ¾ and as low as $9.52 during the session, before settling at $9.53 ¾ – down $0.10 ¾ for the day.   Since then NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a low of $9.51 ½ on February 11th, to a high of $9.94 ¼ on February 19th, before closing at $9.80 on February 20th.    

I-D. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production

At the USDA 2015 Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19-20, the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. soybean planted acreage would be 83.5 million acre (ma), down from a record high 83.701 ma in 2014, but still up from 76.840 ma in 2013, 77.198 ma in 2012, and 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 2). 

The USDA also projected 2015 soybean harvested acreage to be 82.6 ma, down from a record high 83.061 ma in 2014, but up from 75.253 ma in 2013, 76.144 ma in 2012, and 73.776 ma in 2011.  The 2015 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. soybeans is projected to be 98.9%, down from 99.2% in both 2014 and 2013, but up from 98.6% in 2012 and 98.3% in 2011. 

The USDA projected the 2015 U.S. average soybean yield of 46.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – which would be the second highest on record, down from the record high 47.8 bu/ac in 2014, and up from 44.0 bu/ac in 2013, the drought-affected 2012 low yield of 40.0 bu/ac., 42.0 bu/ac in 2011, 43.5 bu/ac in 2010, and the previous record high of 44.0 bu/ac in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3).  

Based on these 2015 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2015 U.S. soybean production to be 3.800 billion bushels (bb), down from the record high 3.958 bb in 2014, up from 3.358 bb in 2013, 3.042 bb in 2012, 3.097 bb in 2011, 3.331 bb in 2010, and 3.361 bb in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 4).   

U.S. Soybean Total Supplies

The USDA has projected that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “next crop” MY 2015/16 to be 4.205 bb, which would be a record high, up from the current record high in “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 4.086 bb (up 10 mb from the January WASDE).  This projection of total supplies of 4.205 bb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 results from beginning stocks of 185 mb, projected 2015 production of 3.800 bb, and projected imports of 20 mb (Table 1 and Figure 4).   Over the recent period of expansion since 2006 in both U.S. corn ethanol production and Chinese soybean import demand, total supplies of U.S. soybeans were 3.655 bb in MY 2006/07 (previous record high), 3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.512 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.495 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.325 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.252 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.570 bb in MY 2013/14, the current record high of 4.086 in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and now the projection of a new record high of 4.205 bb in “next crop” MY 2015/16.

Beginning stocks of 385 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 are markedly higher than the record low of  92 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, 141 mb in MY 2013/14, 169 mb in MY 2012/13, and 215 mb in MY 2011/12.  This forecast of higher beginning stocks of 385 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 is comparable to the recent highs of 449 mb in MY 2006/07, and 574 mb in MY 2007/08.  Conversely, the estimate of record low beginning stocks of 92 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the low of 112 mb which occurred in MY 2004/05, and to what was the previous record low since the early 1970s of 103 mb in beginning stocks in MY 1977/78.

Projected imports of 20 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 are down from 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (up 10 mb from the January WASDE), the record high of 72 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the 2nd highest amount on record of 41 mb in MY 2012/13.   United States’ soybean imports of 20 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 would represent a return to near “normal” historically – being comparable to the range of 10 – 16 mb in U.S. soybean imports for the MY 2007/08 through MY 2011/12 period, and to U.S. soybean imports of less than 10 mb per marketing year going back to at least MY 1980/81.

U.S. Soybean Use by Category & Total Use

Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crush of 1.840 bb would be a new record high, up from the 3rd highest amount on record of 1.795 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (up 15 mb from the January WASDE report), 1.734 bb for MY 2013/14, 1.689 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.703 bb in MY 2011/12, and from a past high of 1.752 bb in MY 2008/09 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  The historic record high amount of U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.808 bb occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity-wise with 1.803 bb in MY 2007/08. 

U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.820 in “next crop” MY 2015/16 would be a record high, up from the current record of 1.790 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (up 20 mb from January) (Table 1 and Figure 5).  United States’ soybean exports were 1.116 bb in MY 2006/07, followed by 1.159 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.501 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.365 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.317 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.647 bb in MY 2013/14, the current high of 1.790 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and what would be the new projected high of 1.820 bb in “next crop” MY 2015/16. 

Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales in “current crop” MY 2014/15, as of February 12th, with 24 of 52 weeks (46.2%) of “current crop” MY 2014/15 complete, 1,451.4 mb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to 81.1% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.790 bb for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).  United States’ export shipments will need to average 12.1 mb per week through the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s February 10th WASDE projection of 1.790 bb.  This compares to U.S. soybean export shipments of 58.9 mb and 49.8 mb which occurred during the weeks ending February 5th and February 12th, respectively.   As a result, U.S. soybean export shipments were “ahead of pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.790 bb in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  However, it is expected that as South American soybean harvest progresses in earnest in early spring 2015 with increased supplies becoming available for export – competing with the U.S. for shipments – that the average weekly pace of U.S. soybean exports will decrease significantly in a seasonal manner from current levels.  

Also as of February 12th an additional 264.1 mb of U.S. soybeans had also been sold for future export sales in “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Of course these future sales of U.S. soybeans are subject to the risk of cancellation later prior to actual shipment – especially if a large South American soybean crop comes to fruition in the coming months and export buyers find comparable amounts of lower cost supplies to purchase elsewhere.  Adding together 1451.4 mb in actual past shipments plus 264.1 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.715 bb, or 95.8% of the USDA’s 1.790 bb U.S. soybean export target for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the February 10th USDA WASDE report, with only 46.2% (24/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 92 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 is unchanged from “current crop” MY 2014/15, down from 97 mb in MY 2013/14, up from 89 mb in MY 2012/13, and up from 90 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  

Residual Use: Forecast residual use of 24 mb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 20 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, 0 mb in MY 2013/14, and from 16 mb in MY 2012/13.   

Total U.S. Soybean Use: Projected U.S. total use of 3.775 bb in “next crop” MY 2015/16 would be a new record high, and is up from the current record high of 3.701 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (up 35 mb from the January WASDE report) (Table 1 and Figure 5).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total U.S. soybean use has been 3.081 bb in MY 2006/07, 3.056 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.047 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.361 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.280 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.155 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.111 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.478 bb in MY 2013/14, the current record high of 3.701 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and the projected new record high of 3.775 bb in “next crop” MY 2015/16.   

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are 430 mb, up from their “current crop” MY 2014/15 forecast of 385 mb (down 35 mb from the January WASDE).  Projected “next crop” MY 2015/16 ending stocks of 430 mb would be the largest amount since 449 mb in MY 2005/06, and 574 mb in MY 2007/08, and compares to 205 mb in MY 2007/08, 138 mb in MY 2008/09, 151 in MY 2009/10, 215 mb in MY 2010/11, 169 mb in MY 2011/12, 141 mb in MY 2012/13, the record low since at least MY 1980/81 of mb 92 in MY 2013/14, and 385 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 11.39% is forecast for “next crop” MY 2015/16, up from 10.40% in forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (down from 11.39% in the January WASDE report), but still up markedly from the record low of 2.65% for MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 6-7).  United States’ soybean % ending stocks-to-use have been 18.62% in MY 2006/07, 6.71% in MY 2007/08, 4.53% in MY 2008/09, 4.49% in MY 2009/10, 6.55% in MY 2010/11, 5.36% in MY 2011/12, 4.53% in MY 2012/13, the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14, the projection of 10.40% for “current crop” MY 2014/15, and now the latest forecast of 11.39% for “next crop” MY 2015/16.   

U.S. average soybean prices for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are forecast to be $9.00 per bushel, down from $10.20 /bu in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 6-7).  United States’ soybean prices have been $6.43 per bushel in MY 2006/07, $10.10 in MY 2007/08, $9.97 in MY 2008/09, $9.59 in MY 2009/10, $11.30 in MY 2010/11, $12.50 in MY 2011/12, a record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13, $13.00 for MY 2013/14, $10.20 in “current crop” MY 2014/15, with the projection of $9.00 /bu in “next crop” MY 2015/16. 

I-D. KSU Soybean Market Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

For “next crop” MY 2015/16, KSU projections reflect the likelihood of two separate U.S. soybean acreage, production, and market outcome scenarios.  Scenario #1 is developed on the assumption of unchanged U.S. soybean planted acreage from 2014 – at 83.704 ma and trend line yields of 45.1 bu/ac.  Scenario #2 relies on the assumption of a two (2) million acre increase in U.S. soybean planted acreage – up to 85.701 ma in 2015 – again with trend line yields of 45.1 bu/ac. 

The supply-demand and price assumptions associated with these two KSU projection scenarios for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are shown in Table 1, with planted and harvested acres represented in Figure 2, yields in Figure 3, total supplies for the 85.710 ma scenario in Figure 4, total use by category and ending stocks for the KSU “+ 2 million acre or 85.701 ma” scenario in Figure 5, and ending stocks and price outcomes for the KSU “+ 2 million acre or 85.701 ma” scenario in Figures 6-7.   Key details of each scenario are presented below.

KSU Scenario #1: “83.701 ma Planted” in MY 2015/16 for U.S. Soybeans ð 40% Probability

2015 U.S. Soybean Planted Area = 83.701 million acres and 2015 Yields = 45.1 bu/ac

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 83.701 ma                Same as in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 82.692 ma                Up 92,000 acres vs 2014 (83.061 ma)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield       = 45.1 bu/ac.               Less 2.7 bu/ac. vs 2014 (47.8 bu/ac.)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Crop     = 3.729 bb                   Less 240 million bu vs 2014 (3.969 bb)

- Total Supplies                       = 4.129 bb                   Up 43 mb vs MY 2014/15 (4.086 bb)

- Total Use                               = 3.730 bb                   Up 29 mb vs MY 2014/15 (3.701 bb)

- Ending Stocks                        = 0.399 bb                   Up 14 mb vs MY 2014/15 (0.385 bb)                                                                                                                    

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 10.70% S/U               vs 10.40% S/U in MY 2014/15

- U.S. Soybean Price              = $10.10 /bu.              ò$0.10 vs MY 2014/15 ($10.20 /bu)

 

KSU Scenario #2: “85.701 ma Planted” in MY 2015/16 for U.S. Soybeans ð 60% Probability

2015 U.S. Soybean Planted Area = 85.701 million acres and 2015 Yields = 45.1 bu/ac

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 85.701 ma                Up 2.0 ma vs 2014 (83.701 ma)

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 84.668 ma                Up 1.607 ma vs 2014 (83.061 ma)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield       = 45.1 bu/ac.               Less 2.7 bu/ac. vs 2014 (47.8 bu/ac.)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Crop     = 3.818 bb                   Less 151 million bu vs 2014 (3.969 bb)

- Total Supplies                       = 4.218 bb                   Up 132 mb vs MY 2014/15 (4.086 bb)

- Total Use                               = 3.760 bb                   Up 59 mb vs MY 2014/15 (3.701 bb)

- Ending Stocks                        = 0.458 bb                   Up 73 mb vs MY 2014/15 (0.385 bb)                                                                                                                   

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 12.18% S/U               vs 10.40% S/U in MY 2014/15

- U.S. Soybean Price              = $9.60 /bu.                ò$0.60 vs MY 2014/15 ($10.20 /bu)

“Composite” USDA & KSU Forecast Results

Combining the results of the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum with these two KSU scenario projections yields the following results for “next crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. soybeans provides the following results in terms of a “composite forecast”: 

o   2015 U.S. Soybean Production                   = 3.782 bb average          (range = 3.729 to 3.818 bb)

o   U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks                        = 0.429 bb average          (range = 0.399 to 0.458 bb)

o   U.S. Soybean % End Stocks-to-Use          = 11.42% average             (range = 10.70% to 12.18%)

o   U.S. Soybean Price ($/bu)                            = $9.57 / bu                        (range = $9.00 to $10.10 /bu)

II. World Soybean Supply-Demand Trends

In the February 10th USDA WASDE report, World soybean production is projected to increase 11.0% in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year over MY 2013/14, and also to be up 17.2% over MY 2012/13.  With a forecast increase in available World soybean total supplies in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (381.31 mmt, up 11.2% from 341.03 mmt a year ago, and up 18.7% from 321.11 mmt two years ago), World soybean total use is also projected to increase by 5.7% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 over MY 2013/14 and by 10.5% over MY 2012/13.

Since early 2013 U.S. soybean markets have been driven by several key factors, including a) record large 2013 and 2014 South American soybean crops and total supplies – albeit with logistical shipping problems in Brazilian ports in mid-2013, b) a historically large 2013 U.S. soybean crop – followed in 2014 by an even larger record high U.S. soybean crop, and c) ongoing strength of World soybean and soybean product import demand from China and other countries – particularly at lower soybean market prices.  Although there are emerging questions about the prospects for the 2015 soybean crop in South America – there still are projections of record large production by the USDA and other sources.  With a near record large U.S. soybean crop also projected for 2015, it is likely that World supplies will grow further relative to demand, and that World soybean prices will fall to their lowest levels in several years.

II-A. World Soybean Production by Country / Region

Projected World soybean production of 315.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, up 31.3 mmt (up 11.0%) from 283.7 mmt for MY 2013/14.  The projection of 315.6 mmt for “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 268.8 mmt in MY 2012/13; the recent low of 240.5 mmt in MY 2011/12, and the range of 212.1-264.3 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 8).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean production is projected to be 207.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 7.6% from 192.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 11.3% from 186.0 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major soybean producing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 and 2013/14 marketing years, along with MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases are projected in all major producing countries or regions in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  

In “current crop” MY 2014/15, the United States (108.0 mmt – up 16.6 mmt for the year) is projected to be the largest World producer of soybeans, followed by Brazil (94.5 mmt – up 7.8 mmt from the MY 2013/14’s record high of 86.7 mmt), Argentina (56.0 mmt – up 2.0 mmt), China (12.4 mmt – up 0.15 mmt), Paraguay (8.5 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), and the European Union (1.7 mmt – up 0.5 mmt).

II-B. World Soybean Exports by Country / Region

Global soybean exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 117.2 mmt, up 4.0% from 112.7 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 16.6% from 100.5 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3 and Figure 8).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean exports are projected to be 68.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 0.8% from 67.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 5.8% from 64.7 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major soybean exporting countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, and also for MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, with marginal increases for Argentina and Paraguary, and a decline for Brazil. 

The largest projected exporter of soybeans in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is the United States (48.7 mmt – up 3.9 mmt vs last year), Brazil (46.0 mmt – down 0.83 mmt from a year ago), followed by the Argentina (8.0 mmt – up 0.16 mmt), and Paraguay (4.5 mmt – up 0.12 mmt).

II-C. World Soybean Imports by Country / Region

Global soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 113.7 mmt, up 2.5% from 110.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 18.5% from 95.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean imports are projected to be 113.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.7% from 108.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 19.2% from 94.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major soybean importing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the China and Mexico, with decreased imports projected for the United States, and the European Union.  Marginal-to-no change in imports is projected for Japan.  

China is projected to be the largest World soybean importer, with “current crop” MY 2014/15 soybean imports increasing to 74.0 mmt – up 3.6 mmt from a year ago.  China is followed by the European Union (12.75 mmt – down 0.24 mmt), Mexico (3.95 mmt – up 0.25 mmt), and Japan (2.9 mmt – up 0.01 mmt). 

II-D. World Soybean Domestic Crush by Country / Region

Global soybean domestic crush in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a 254.5 mmt, up 5.9% from 240.3 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 10.6% from 230.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean domestic crush is projected to be 205.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 6.2% from 193.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 11.6% from 184.2 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean domestic crush in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Sizable year-over-year increases in domestic soybean crush usage in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for nearly all major importing and exporting countries – except for only small changes in the European Union and Japan. 

China (74.5 mmt – up 5.65 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans for domestic crushing in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (48.85 mmt – up 1.66 mmt), Argentina (39.2 mmt – up 3.0 mmt), Brazil (37.6 mmt – up 1.3 mmt), the European Union (13.6 mmt – small increase), Mexico (4.2 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), Paraguay (3.6 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), and Japan (1.97 mmt – up 0.03 mmt).  

II-E. World Soybean Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean total use of 288.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is a record high, up 5.7% from the previous record of 272.9 mmt for MY 2013/14, up 10.5% from 261.2 mmt in MY 2012/13, and up from the range of 221.7-258.1 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 6 and Figure 8).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean total use is projected to be 236.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 6.0% from 223.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 11.4% from 212.3 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of soybean total use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean total use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for all major producing and using countries except Japan, the EU, and Paraguay – for which only small marginal increases are forecast. 

China (86.2 mmt – up 7.3 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (52.0 mmt – up 2.15 mmt), Argentina (42.3 mmt – up 3.3 mmt), Brazil (40.75 mmt – up 1.5 mmt), the European Union (14.3 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), Mexico (4.2 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), Paraguay (3.8 mmt – up 0.15 mmt), and Japan (3.1 mmt – up 0.02 mmt). 

II-F. World Soybean Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World soybean ending stocks of 89.3 mmt for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up 34.9% from 66.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, up 55.8% from 57.3 mmt in MY 2012/13, and above the range of 43.1-70.6 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 8).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks are projected to be 78.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 23.8% from 63.7 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 47.4% from 53.5 mmt in MY 2012/13.

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean ending stocks in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and the European Union, with only a marginal increase for Japan, and no change for Mexico.  Ending stocks in China are projected to decrease.

Argentina (34.7 mmt – up 5.7 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the World’s largest holder of soybean ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (24.8 mmt – up 7.9 mmt), China (14.2 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), the United States (10.5 mmt – up 8.0 mmt), the European Union (0.34 mmt – up 0.12 mmt), Paraguay (0.45 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), Japan (0.27 mmt – up 0.04 mmt), and Mexico (0.12 mmt – unchanged). 

II-G. World Soybean % Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Forecast World soybean percent ending stocks-to-use of 30.9% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 represents a record high (going back at least 51 years to MY 1964/65).  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 30.9% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 24.2% in MY 2013/14, and 21.9% in MY 2012/13, and is comparable to 22.6% in MY 2011/12, 26.7% in MY 2010/11, 23.2% in MY 2009/10, 20.3% in MY 2008/09, and 24.0% in MY 2007/08 (Table 8).  The minimum level of World soybean % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1960s occurred in MY 1976/77 (6.9% S/U), MY 1996/97 (11.8% S/U), and MY 1978/79 (12.6% S/U).  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 20.3% in MY 2008/09 is the lowest since 19.3% in MY 2001/02.  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 25.8% in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up from 21.9% in MY 2013/14, and up from 19.3% in MY 2012/13.

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean percent ending stocks-to-use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, the European Union, and Japan, with decreased ending stocks projected for China and Mexico. 

Argentina (69.1% S/U – up from 62.0% a year ago) is projected to be the largest World holder of soybeans in terms of ending stocks-to-use in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (28.6% – up from 19.2%), China (16.4% – down from 17.9%), the United States (10.4% – up from 2.65%), Japan (8.8% – up from 7.5%), the European Union (2.4% – up from 1.5%), Paraguay (5.4% – up from 2.9%), and Mexico (2.8% – down from 3.0%). 

II-H. Relationship Between World Soybean % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. soybean ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average soybean prices (see Figure 7), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. soybean season average cash prices and World soybean % ending stocks-to-use.  However, there appear to be two separate supply-demand relationship regimes represented in this graphic, the lower price regime during the MY 1973/74 – 2005/06 period, and the higher price regime occurring starting in MY 2006/07 and continuing through the present time (Figure 9).  The later period since MY 2006/07 coincides with the sharp growth in Chinese soybean import demand in World soybean markets.   

Since MY 2006/07 in particular, larger World soybean supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World soybean prices.  Conversely smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher soybean prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 7 earlier, U.S. soybean prices in Figure 9 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Since MY 2006/07, the minimum World soybean percent stocks-to-use was 19.44% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 2008/09.  “Current crop” projections are for World soybean percent stocks-to-use to be a record high 30.9% in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

Implied World Soybean % End Stocks-to-Use & Prices in “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

With the USDA projecting “next crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. soybean prices at $9.00 /bu, an implied World soybean percent stocks-to-use level of approximately 34.5% is projected – which would be a new record high by 3.6% over 30.9% in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  This implied level of World soybean stocks-to-use does not adjust for potential impacts of current exchange rates, which would likely lower this implied World soybean % stocks-to-use to somewhere in the range of a minimum of 30.9% to less than 34.5%.

****************************

Table 1. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2009/10 through KSU Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

  (February 12, 2015 USDA WASDE Report, Agricultural Baseline Projections, and KSU Projections for the “next crop” 2015/16 marketing year)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

 

2013/14

2014/15

USDA

Ag Outlook Forum

2/19-20/2015 2015/16

KSU

No Change in Planted Acres

2015/16

KSU

+2.0 million Planted Acres  2015/16

Percent Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

75%

 

40%

60%

Planted Area (million acres)

75.718

77.451

77.404

75.046

77.198

76.840

83.701

83.5

83.701

ñ2.0   85.701

Harvested Area (million acres)

74.681

76.372

76.610

73.776

76.144

76.253

83.061

82.6

82.692

ñ1.6   84.668

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.63%

98.61%

98.97%

98.31%

98.63%

99.24%

99.24%

98.92%

98.79%

98.79%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

39.7

44.0

43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.8

46.0

 Trend 45.1

Trend 45.1

 

 

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks

205

138

151

215

169

141

92

385

385

385

Production

2,967

3,361

3,331

3,097

3,042

3,358

3,969

3,800

3,729

3,818

Imports

13

15

14

16

41

72

25

20

15

15

Total Supply

3,185

3,512

3,495

3,325

3,252

3,570

4,086

4,205

4,129

4,218

 

 

Domestic Crushings

1,662

1,752

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,734

1,795

 1,840

1,820

1,835

Exports

1,279

1,499

1,501

1,365

1,317

1,647

1,790

1,820

1,800

1,815

Seed

90

90

87

90

89

97

92

92

90

90

Residual

16

20

43

-2

16

0

24

24

20

20

Total Use

3,047

3,361

3,280

3,155

3,111

3,478

3,701

3,775

3,730

3,760

 

 

Ending Stocks

138

151

215

169

141

92

385

430

399

458

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.53%

4.49%

6.55%

5.36%

4.53%

2.65%

10.40%

11.39%

10.70%

12.18%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$9.97

$9.59

 

$11.30

$12.50

$14.40

$13.00

$9.45-$10.95

($10.20)

$9.00

$9.60-$10.60

($10.10)

$9.10-

$10.10

($9.60)

                       

Figure 2. U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage (2004-2014) with 2015 Projections

Figure 3. U.S. Soybean Yield Trend (1973-2014) and USDA / KSU 2015 Projections

Text Box: 2015 Trend Yield = 45.1 (1973-2014 Series)
43.5 bu/ac

Figure 4. U.S. Soybean Total Supplies since MY 2004/15 (February 10, 2015 USDA WASDE & 2015 Forecast)

Figure 5. U.S. Soybean Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 - 2014/15 Plus MY 2015/16 Projections  
(February 10, 2015 USDA WASDE Report & 2015 USDA Forecast)

Figure 6. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 – 2015/16                       
Feb. 10th USDA WASDE thru MY 2014/15 plus USDA Ag Outlook Conf. & KSU projections for MY 2015/16

Figure 7. U.S. Soybean Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “Next Crop” MY 2015/16)

Text Box: USDA “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 
11.4% S/U @ $10.20 /bu
Text Box: 2011/12

Figure 8. World Soybean Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “Current Crop” MY 2014/15                     
(February 10, 2015 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: Soybean Usage
ñ11.1 mmt /yr (+5.0% /yr) since 2008/09
Text Box: Soybean 
End Stocks
89.3 mmt in MY 2014/15
 
43-71 mmt
during 2007/08 through 2013/14 period
 
Text Box: Soybean Production
ñ17.2 mmt /yr (+8.1% /yr) since 2008/09
 
Text Box: Soybean Trade
117.2 mmt in     MY 2014/15 is ñ6.7 mmt /yr (+8.6% /yr) since 2008/09

Figure 9. U.S. Soybean Price vs World % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “Next Crop” MY 2015/16)

Text Box: 2012/13 
21.9% S/U
@ $14.40 /bu
 
Text Box: 2014/15 
30.9% S/U 
@ $10.20 /bu

 

Table 2. World Soybean Production Forecasts for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Production: New Crop 2014/15     February  2015

Soybean Production: January 2015 Current Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Production:               February  Less January                

Current Crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         February  2015 of January 2015

February  Soybean Production: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14          

January Soybean Production: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

February  Less January Soybean  Production             for 2013/14

Current Crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current Crop 2014/15 Production of                         Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

Soybean Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% Current Crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

315.06

314.37

0.69

100.2%

283.74

283.74

0.00

31.32

111.0%

268.77

46.29

117.2%

United States

108.01

108.01

0.00

100.0%

91.39

91.39

0.00

16.62

118.2%

82.79

25.22

130.5%

Total Foreign

207.04

206.36

0.68

100.3%

192.35

192.35

0.00

14.69

107.6%

185.97

21.07

111.3%

Major Exporters

162.40

162.40

0.00

100.0%

152.40

152.40

0.00

10.00

106.6%

143.15

19.25

113.4%

Argentina

56.00

55.00

1.00

101.8%

54.00

54.00

0.00

2.00

103.7%

49.30

6.70

113.6%

Brazil

94.50

95.50

(1.00)

99.0%

86.70

86.70

0.00

7.80

109.0%

82.00

12.50

115.2%

Paraguay

8.50

8.50

0.00

100.0%

8.20

8.20

0.00

0.30

103.7%

8.20

0.30

103.7%

Major Importers

15.44

14.89

0.55

103.7%

14.78

14.78

0.00

0.66

104.5%

15.33

0.11

100.7%

China

12.35

11.80

0.55

104.7%

12.20

12.20

0.00

0.15

101.2%

13.05

(0.70)

94.6%

EU - 28 Countries

1.72

1.72

0.00

100.0%

1.23

1.23

0.00

0.49

139.8%

0.95

0.77

181.1%

Japan

0.21

0.21

0.00

100.0%

0.20

0.20

0.00

0.01

105.0%

0.24

(0.03)

87.5%

Mexico

0.29

0.29

0.00

100.0%

0.25

0.25

0.00

0.04

116.0%

0.25

0.04

116.0%

 

Table 3. World Soybean Export Forecasts for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Exports: Current Crop 2014/15     February  2015

Soybean Exports: January 2015 Current Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Exports:               February  Less January          

Current Crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         February  2015 of January 2015

February  Soybean Exports: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14          

January Soybean Exports: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

February  Less January Soybean  Exports             for 2013/14

Current Crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current Crop 2014/15 Exports of Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

Soybean Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Exports             Less 2012/13

% Current Crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

117.18

116.49

0.69

100.6%

112.72

112.83

(0.11)

4.46

104.0%

100.53

16.65

116.6%

United States

48.72

48.17

0.55

101.1%

44.82

44.82

0.00

3.90

108.7%

35.85

12.87

135.9%

Total Foreign

68.47

68.32

0.15

100.2%

67.91

68.01

(0.10)

0.56

100.8%

64.69

3.78

105.8%

Major Exporters

61.70

61.70

0.00

100.0%

62.41

62.41

0.00

(0.71)

98.9%

58.69

3.01

105.1%

Argentina

8.00

8.00

0.00

100.0%

7.84

7.84

0.00

0.16

102.0%

7.74

0.26

103.4%

Brazil

46.00

46.00

0.00

100.0%

46.83

46.83

0.00

(0.83)

98.2%

41.90

4.10

109.8%

Paraguay

4.52

4.52

0.00

100.0%

4.40

4.40

0.00

0.12

102.7%

5.52

(1.00)

81.9%

Major Importers

0.43

0.38

0.05

113.2%

0.29

0.29

0.00

0.14

148.3%

0.38

0.05

113.2%

China

0.35

0.30

0.05

116.7%

0.22

0.22

0.00

0.13

159.1%

0.27

0.08

129.6%

EU - 28 Countries

0.06

0.06

0.00

100.0%

0.06

0.06

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.09

(0.03)

66.7%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

 

Table 4. World Soybean Import Forecasts for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Imports: Current Crop 2014/15     February  2015

Soybean Imports: January 2015 Current Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Imports:               February  Less January              

Current Crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         February  2015 of January 2015

February  Soybean Imports: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14           

January Soybean Imports: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

February  Less January Soybean  Imports             for 2013/14

Current Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current Crop 2014/15 Imports of Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

Soybean Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less 2012/13

% Current Crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

113.66

112.99

0.67

100.6%

110.85

110.51

0.34

2.81

102.5%

95.89

17.77

118.5%

United States

0.68

0.41

0.27

165.9%

1.95

1.95

0.00

(1.27)

34.9%

1.10

(0.42)

61.8%

Total Foreign

112.98

112.58

0.40

100.4%

108.90

108.56

0.34

4.08

103.7%

94.79

18.19

119.2%

Major Exporters

0.58

0.58

0.00

100.0%

0.63

0.63

0.00

(0.05)

92.1%

0.42

0.16

138.1%

Argentina

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.55

0.55

0.00

100.0%

0.61

0.61

0.00

(0.06)

90.2%

0.40

0.15

137.5%

Paraguay

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.00

100.0%

Major Importers

100.25

100.25

0.00

100.0%

95.97

95.93

0.04

4.28

104.5%

84.23

16.02

119.0%

China

74.00

74.00

0.00

100.0%

70.36

70.36

0.00

3.64

105.2%

59.87

14.13

123.6%

EU - 28 Countries

12.75

12.75

0.00

100.0%

12.99

12.99

0.00

(0.24)

98.2%

12.54

0.21

101.7%

Japan

2.90

2.90

0.00

100.0%

2.89

2.89

0.00

0.01

100.3%

2.83

0.07

102.5%

Mexico

3.95

3.95

0.00

100.0%

3.70

3.70

0.00

0.25

106.8%

3.41

0.54

115.8%

 

Table 5. World Soybean Crush Forecasts for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Crush                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Crush: Current Crop 2014/15     February  2015

Soybean Crush: January 2015 Current Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Crush:               February  Less January                

Current Crop 2014/15 Crush:                Percent (%)         February  2015 of January 2015

February  Soybean Crush: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14          

January Soybean Crush: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

February  Less January Soybean  Crush for 2013/14

Current Crop 2014/15 Crush             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current Crop 2014/15 Crush of Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

Soybean Crush: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Crush             Less 2012/13

% Current Crop 2014/15 Crush       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

254.52

252.53

1.99

100.8%

240.32

240.32

0.00

14.20

105.9%

230.19

24.33

110.6%

United States

48.85

48.44

0.41

100.8%

47.19

47.19

0.00

1.66

103.5%

45.97

2.88

106.3%

Total Foreign

205.66

204.48

1.18

100.6%

193.61

193.12

0.49

12.05

106.2%

184.22

21.44

111.6%

Major Exporters

80.58

79.45

1.13

101.4%

76.10

76.10

0.00

4.48

105.9%

71.90

8.68

112.1%

Argentina

39.18

38.05

1.13

103.0%

36.17

36.18

(0.01)

3.01

108.3%

33.61

5.57

116.6%

Brazil

37.60

37.60

0.00

100.0%

36.28

36.28

0.00

1.32

103.6%

35.24

2.36

106.7%

Paraguay

3.60

3.60

0.00

100.0%

3.50

3.50

0.00

0.10

102.9%

2.95

0.65

122.0%

Major Importers

97.67

97.67

0.00

100.0%

91.34

91.34

0.00

6.33

106.9%

86.63

11.04

112.7%

China

74.50

74.50

0.00

100.0%

68.85

68.85

0.00

5.65

108.2%

64.95

9.55

114.7%

EU - 28 Countries

13.60

13.60

0.00

100.0%

13.59

13.59

0.00

0.01

100.1%

13.23

0.37

102.8%

Japan

1.97

1.97

0.00

100.0%

1.94

1.94

0.00

0.03

101.5%

1.92

0.05

102.6%

Mexico

4.20

4.20

0.00

100.0%

3.90

3.90

0.00

0.30

107.7%

3.65

0.55

115.1%

 

Table 6. World Soybean Total Use Forecasts for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Total Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Total Use: Current Crop 2014/15     February  2015

Soybean Total Use: January 2015 Current Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Total Use:               February  Less January              

Current Crop 2014/15 Total Use:  Percent (%)         February  2015 of January 2015

February  Soybean Total Use: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14          

January Soybean Total Use: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

February  Less January Soybean  Total Use             for 2013/14

Current Crop 2014/15 Total Use Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current Crop 2014/15 Total Use of Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

Soybean Total Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Total Use             Less 2012/13

% Current Crop 2014/15 Total Use of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

288.53

286.25

2.28

100.8%

272.90

272.40

0.50

15.63

105.7%

261.18

27.35

110.5%

United States

52.00

51.60

0.40

100.8%

49.85

49.85

0.00

2.15

104.3%

48.83

3.17

106.5%

Total Foreign

236.53

234.66

1.87

100.8%

223.06

222.56

0.50

13.47

106.0%

212.34

24.19

111.4%

Major Exporters

87.04

85.91

1.13

101.3%

82.05

82.05

0.00

4.99

106.1%

77.39

9.65

112.5%

Argentina

42.28

41.15

1.13

102.7%

38.97

38.97

0.00

3.31

108.5%

36.05

6.23

117.3%

Brazil

40.75

40.75

0.00

100.0%

39.28

39.28

0.00

1.47

103.7%

38.19

2.56

106.7%

Paraguay

3.79

3.79

0.00

100.0%

3.64

3.64

0.00

0.15

104.1%

3.03

0.76

125.1%

Major Importers

115.19

114.89

0.30

100.3%

108.37

108.33

0.04

6.82

106.3%

103.21

11.98

111.6%

China

86.20

85.90

0.30

100.3%

80.30

80.30

0.00

5.90

107.3%

76.18

10.02

113.2%

EU - 28 Countries

14.28

14.28

0.00

100.0%

14.17

14.17

0.00

0.11

100.8%

13.96

0.32

102.3%

Japan

3.07

3.07

0.00

100.0%

3.05

3.05

0.00

0.02

100.7%

3.01

0.06

102.0%

Mexico

4.24

4.24

0.00

100.0%

3.94

3.94

0.00

0.30

107.6%

3.69

0.55

114.9%

 

Table 7. World Soybean Ending Stocks Forecasts for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean End Stocks                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean End Stocks: Current Crop 2014/15     February  2015

Soybean End Stocks: January 2015 Current Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 End Stocks:               February  Less January                  

Current Crop 2014/15 End Stocks: Percent (%) February  2015 of January 2015

February  Soybean End Stocks: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14           

January Soybean End Stocks: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

February  Less January Soybean  End Stocks             for 2013/14

Current Crop 2014/15 End Stocks Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current Crop 2014/15 End Stocks of                         Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

Soybean End Stocks: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 End Stocks Less                     2012/13

% Current Crop 2014/15 End Stocks of                         2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

89.26

89.87

(0.61)

99.3%

66.16

66.16

0.00

23.10

134.9%

57.29

31.97

155.8%

United States

10.48

11.16

(0.68)

93.9%

2.50

2.50

0.00

7.98

419.2%

3.83

6.65

273.6%

Total Foreign

78.78

78.70

0.08

100.1%

63.66

63.66

0.00

15.12

123.8%

53.46

25.32

147.4%

Major Exporters

60.02

59.70

0.32

100.5%

45.78

45.78

0.00

14.24

131.1%

37.21

22.81

161.3%

Argentina

34.72

34.85

(0.13)

99.6%

29.00

29.00

0.00

5.72

119.7%

21.81

12.91

159.2%

Brazil

24.83

24.38

0.45

101.8%

16.53

16.53

0.00

8.30

150.2%

15.33

9.50

162.0%

Paraguay

0.45

0.45

0.00

100.0%

0.23

0.23

0.00

0.22

195.7%

0.04

0.41

1125.0%

Major Importers

15.38

15.93

(0.55)

96.5%

15.31

15.31

0.00

0.07

100.5%

13.23

2.15

116.3%

China

14.23

14.03

0.20

101.4%

14.43

14.43

0.00

(0.20)

98.6%

12.38

1.85

114.9%

EU - 28 Countries

0.34

1.09

(0.75)

31.2%

0.22

0.22

0.00

0.12

154.5%

0.23

0.11

147.8%

Japan

0.27

0.27

0.00

100.0%

0.23

0.23

0.00

0.04

117.4%

0.18

0.09

150.0%

Mexico

0.12

0.12

0.00

100.0%

0.12

0.12

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.10

0.02

120.0%

 

Table 8. World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use Forecasts for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Ending %Stx/Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Current Crop 2014/15     February  2015

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: January 2015 Current Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use:               February  Less January                    

Current Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use:                Percent (%) February  2015 of January 2015

February  Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14          

January Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

February  Less January Soybean  Ending %Stx/Use             for 2013/14

Current Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use of                         Last Year’s Crop 2013/14

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use             Less 2012/13

% Current Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use of                         2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

30.9%

31.4%

-0.5%

98.5%

24.2%

24.3%

0.0%

6.7%

127.6%

21.9%

9.0%

141.0%

United States

10.4%

21.6%

-11.2%

48.1%

2.6%

2.6%

0.0%

7.8%

394.0%

4.5%

5.9%

230.1%

Total Foreign

25.8%

33.5%

-7.7%

77.0%

21.9%

21.9%

0.0%

4.0%