K-State AgManager.info website
  About     Contributors     Useful links     Site map      Feedback  

Search AgManager.Info:

 

K-State AgManager.info website
Agribusiness
Crops
Energy
Farm Management
Livestock & Meat
Policy
Decision Tools
--------------------
Ag Econ News
Contributors
Programs
Sponsors
Upcoming Events
Presentations Archive
Reposting Policy
--------------------
K-State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
--------------------
Department Theses & Dissertations
--------------------
KFMA
--------------------
SIGN-UP for Weekly Email Updates
--------------------
--------------------
--------------------
PFT
AgManager.info: Grain Outlook
AgManager.info: Crops
   Home / Crops

Marketing

Insurance
 and Risk

Projected
Budgets

Production
Economics

Links to Other
Crop Information

Grain Market Outlook Risk Management Non-Irrigated Crops Production Enterprise Summaries
KSRN Grain Market Interview Decision Tools Irrigated Crops Precision Ag Policy
Crop Basis Tool & Maps Interest Rate Forecasts   Decision Tools Storage & Handling
Decision Tools       Other Crop Links
World Grain Supply and Demand        

PDF: Current Grain Outlook
 

Focused on Grains Blog, by Dan O'Brien

KSRN Radio Interview

Previous Grain Outlooks

Grain Market Outlook

Soybean Market Outlook in April 2016

April 26, 2016


Summary

Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on April 12th, soybean futures prices have moved sharply higher.  To date in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year, soybean market prices in the U.S. and World have been limited by the current “large crop – low price” scenario, caused by consecutive record 2014, 2015 and projected 2016 South American and U.S. soybean crops.  However, recent significant crop production problems have occurred in key South American production areas such as Argentina and parts of Brazil.  The current market oversupply situation is illustrated by 28% growth over a two year period in World soybean stocks, from 61.8 mmt (22.4% stocks/use) in the MY 2013/14 up to 79.0 mmt (25.0% stocks/use) in the “current crop” MY 2015/16.  To make export sales of U.S. soybeans even more challenging, the high value of the U.S. dollar relative to declining or low currency exchange rates of foreign soybean export competitors in South America has had some negative impact on U.S. exports and prices. However, with limited numbers of major exporting countries available to buy from in the World market, the negative impact has been more limited than it has been for U.S. wheat trade.   

In April excessive rainfall has caused problems with the Argentina 2016 soybean crop, adding to ongoing dry conditions in some key Brazilian soybean production areas in recent months. Once the extent of these threats to soybean production in these countries is adequately quantified, then World soybean markets will turn their attention to spring-summer-fall soybean crop prospects in the United States.  The key issue will be to determine whether any weather or disease problems end up driving U.S. soybean production low enough to alter the current “large supply” “buyer’s market” situation that now exists in U.S. and World soybean markets.

Longer term, since MY 2008/09 a strong upward trend in World soybean production (up 7.3% annually) has “out-paced” the increase in World soybean use (up 6.1% per year), leading to record World soybean ending stocks and growth in percent ending stocks-to-use, and consequently to a dramatic reduction in soybean price prospects in the “current” and anticipated “next” crop years.  Absent any major unforeseen crop production problems in the U.S. and South America in year 2016, low prices and poor profitability this coming fall are likely to cause either a scaling back or “leveling” of World soybean production in 2017 and beyond.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast of “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA maintained its forecast 2015 U.S. soybean production of a record 3.929 billion bushels (bb) – up marginally from 3.927 bb in 2014.  For “current crop” 2015/16, USDA projected U.S. total supplies at a record 4.150 bb (vs 4.052 bb in MY 2014/15), crush at 1.870 bb, exports at 1.705 bb (up 15 mb from March, but still down from the record 1.843 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15), total use at 3.705 bb (up 15 mb but less than the record of 3.862 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15), and ending stocks at a 9-year high of 445 mb (down 15 mb, but still up from 191 million bushels or ‘mb’ in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 92 mb in MY 2013/14).   Ending stocks-to-use are projected at 12.01% - up dramatically from 4.95% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14.  The USDA forecast “current crop” MY 2015/16 prices to be in the range $8.50-$9.00 (midpoint = $8.75 /bu) – down from $10.10 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $13.00 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13.    

USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: An adjusted version of the USDA’s “next crop” MY 2016/17 forecast for U.S. soybeans is presented here, building on the information presented by the USDA at its Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA on February 25-26, with 2016 U.S. soybean planted acres equal to the March 31st Prospective Planting report forecast.  The USDA projected 2016 U.S. soybean plantings of 82.236 million acres (ma) – down 414,000 acres from 2015.  Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 81.257 ma is developed using longer term KSU harvested-to-planted acreage estimates (98.8%), and would be down 1.592 ma vs 2015.  With projected yields of 46.7 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. soybean production is projected to be 3.795 bb – 3rd highest on record behind 3.927 bb in 2014 and 3.929 bb in 2015.   With forecast “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 3.850 bb (2nd highest behind 3.862 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15), and an adjusted projection of ending stocks of 420 mb (10.91% S/U), U.S. soybean prices were estimated by the USDA to be $8.50 /bu at the 2016 Ag Outlook Forum – down from the USDA’s $8.75 /bu midpoint estimate for “current” MY 2015/16.

KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17:  Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. soybean supply-demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.500 ma upward adjustment in 2016 U.S. soybean planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report.  A) KSU-Scenario A (Higher Acres & Trend Yield) (30% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2016/17: 83.736 ma planted, 83.739 ma harvested, 45.85 bu/ac yield, 3.794 bb production, 4.269 bb total supplies, 3.726 bb total use, 546 mb ending stocks, 14.57% S/U, & $8.25 /bu U.S. soybean average price;  B) KSU-Scenario B (Higher Acres & Moderate Crop Stress) (25% prob.) assumes 83.736 ma planted, 82.739 ma harvested, 44.0 bu/ac yield, 3.641 bb production, 4.116 bb total supplies, 3.653 bb total use, 463 mb ending stocks, 12.67% S/U, & $8.60 /bu U.S. soybean price; and C) KSU-Scenario C (Higher Acres & Extreme Drought) (10% prob.) assumes 83.736 ma planted, 82.739 ma harvested, 39.0 bu/ac yield, 3.227 bb production, 3.702 bb total supplies, 3.426 bb total use, 276 mb ending stocks, 8.1% S/U, & $10.00 /bu U.S. soybean price.

World Soybean Supply-Demand: World total supplies of 397.9 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “current” MY 2015/16, up 4.3% from 381.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 17.8% from 337.9 mmt in MY 2013/14.  Projected World soybean ending stocks of 79.0 mmt (25.0% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 are up moderately from 77.7 mmt (25.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 61.8 mmt (22.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.  

World soybean supplies and ending stocks have been growing in recent marketing years, but usage has grown at an equal or greater pace.  These trends have led to the result that percent ending stocks-to-use is lower in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (25.0%) than in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (25.8%) – a positive sign for future trends in World soybean markets.

I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. April 12th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports

On April 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2016 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply-demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “current” 2015/16 marketing years.  The “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.  The March 9th and April 12th USDA WASDE reports followed earlier U.S. soybean supply-demand and price projections for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year (i.e., MY 2016/17) provided by the USDA at the 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 25-26, 2016.

Prior to the April 12th USDA WASDE report, on March 31st the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.  The USDA used information from the Quarterly Grain Stocks report to make adjustments in the U.S. soybean supply-demand balance sheet.  Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used in this report to update the USDA’s soybean production and supply-demand projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17.  These adjustments anticipate what the USDA is likely to do if it follows it’s usual practice in the upcoming May 10th USDA WASDE report when it releases its own updated U.S. corn supply-demand and price projection for “next crop” MY 2016/17.

I-B. Comments on Major World Soybean Market Trends

The activities of the World soybean market over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood by recognizing several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade among major countries and regions of the World involved in soybean trade.  The primary countries involved in or “driving” these predominant trends have been China in terms of demand factors, South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others), and the United States in regards to supply-oriented factors.

China Soybean Supply-Demand

Growing Chinese domestic use and imports of soybeans have been the key market demand “driver in World soybean markets in recent years.   Figure 1 illustrates trends since the 2006/07 marketing year in Chinese soybean production, domestic use, imports, and ending stocks. 

China Soybean Domestic Production: Chinese domestic production of soybeans was 13.05 mmt in MY 2012/13 (17.1% of total domestic use), 11.95 mmt in MY 2013/14 (14.8% of domestic usage), 12.15 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (13.9% of domestic use), and is projected to be 11.80 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (12.4% of domestic use) (Figure 1).  Chinese soybean domestic production is forecast to be down an average of 0.417 mmt annually or minus 3.5% per year over the last four marketing years.  With China’s domestic soybean production declining marginally as a proportion of total domestic use over the last four marketing years, China is forced to rely even more heavily on sizable amounts of soybean imports to fill domestic use needs.  

China Soybean Domestic Use: Chinese soybean domestic usage has increased from 76.18 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (29.1% of World use), up to 80.6 mmt in MY 2013/14 (29.3% of World use), to 87.20 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (29.1% of World use), and up further to a projected level of 95.25 mmt (30.1% of World use) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (Figure 1).  Chinese soybean domestic usage is projected to be up an average of 6.357 mmt annually or 6.7% per year over the last four marketing years. 

China Soybean Imports: Chinese soybean imports were estimated to be 59.865 mb in MY 2012/13 (62.3% of World soybean imports), 70.364 mb in MY 2013/14 (62.9% of the World total), and 78.35 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (64.2% of the World total), while being projected at 83.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (63.9% of the World total) (Figure 1).  Chinese soybean imports are projected to be up an average of 7.712 mmt annually or 9.3% per year over the last four marketing years.   

China Soybean Ending Stocks: In addition, Chinese soybean ending stocks were estimated to be 12.38 mb in MY 2012/13 (22.4% of World soybean ending stocks), 13.88 mb in MY 2013/14 (22.5% of the World total), and 17.03 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (21.9% of the World total), while being projected at 16.43 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (20.8% of the World total) (Figure 1).  Chinese soybean ending stocks are projected to be up an average of 1.352 mmt annually or 8.2% per year over the last four marketing years.   

China & Non-China Soybean Percent Ending Stocks-to-Use: In addition, Chinese soybean percent ending stocks-to-use were estimated to be 16.25% in MY 2012/13, 17.22% in MY 2013/14, and 19.53% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, while being projected at 17.25% in “current crop” MY 2015/16.  During this same four-year period, soybean percent ending stocks-to-use for all other countries (i.e., “non-Chinese”) is estimated to have been 23.15% in MY 2012/13, 24.6% in MY 2013/14, and 28.6% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, while being projected at 28.3% in “current crop” MY 2015/16. 

Figure 1. China Soybean Supply-Demand Trends: MY 2006/07 – “Current Crop” MY 2015/16 Source: April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE Report

South America Soybean Supply-Demand

Soybean Production in South American Countries: Since 2012 it is projected that there will have been four successively larger record years of South American soybean production (Figure 2).  The top 3 countries for soybean production in South America are Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay.  These three countries are projected to have combined to produce 96.1% of South American soybean production over the MY 2012/13-MY2015/16 period. 

South American total soybean production has grown from 115.896 mmt in the short crop year of year 2012 (i.e., MY 2011/12), to 146.0 mmt in 2013, 154.2 mmt in 2014, 172.7 mmt in 2015, and a projection of 174.2 mmt in 2015 (i.e., “current crop” MY 2015/16).  Soybean production in South America amounted to 48.2% pf World production in the 2011/12 marketing year, 54.4% in MY 2012/13, 54.6% in MY 2013/14, and 54.0% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and is projected to make up 54.4% of the World total in “current crop” MY 2015/16. 

Figure 2. South America Soybean Supply-Demand Trends: MY 2006/07 – “Current Crop” MY 2015/16.  Source: April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE Report

South America Soybean Exports: South American soybean exports have grown at a rate of 14.2% annually since the 2008/09 marketing year, increasing 5.59 mmt annually over this same eight-year period (Figure 2).  Just as for soybean production, the top 3 countries for soybean exports in South America are Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, which are projected to have combined to export 94.9% of South American soybean exports over the MY 2012/13-MY2015/16 period. 

Over the last four years, South American soybean exports have totaled 59.2 mmt in MY 2012/13, followed by 62.8 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 68.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with an increase projected up to 78.55 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16.  Total soybean exports from South American countries as a proportion of World exports has amounted to 54.4% in MY 2012/13, to 54.6% in MY 2013/14, and 54.0% of the World total in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 54.4% of World soybean exports in “current crop” MY 2015/16.    

South America Soybean Ending Stocks:  Soybean ending stocks in South America as a whole have reached record and near record levels in the two most recent marketing years.  After growing to the previous record of 45.9 mmt in the 2010/11 marketing year, South American soybean stocks dropped to 28.7 mmt in MY 2011/12, then began rebuilding to 35.3 mmt in MY 2012/13, 41.7 mmt in MY 2013/14, and a record high of 51.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, followed by a projection of 47.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16. 

Soybean ending stocks in South American countries amounted to 63.9% of World stocks in MY 2012/13, 67.5% in MY 2013/14, and 66.4% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and is projected to be 59.8% of the World total in “current crop” MY 2015/16. 

United States’ Soybean Production, Exports & Ending Stocks

U.S. Soybean Production: From drought-affect 2012 low levels, United States’ soybean production increased sharply in 2013 and then to a record high in 2014, and marginally higher to a new record level in 2015, and is projected preliminarily to move moderately lower in 2016 (Figure 3).  In year 2012, the U.S. produced 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production (30.8% of World total), followed by 91.4 mmt in MY 2013/14 (32.3% of World total), 106.88 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (33.45% of the World total), and an estimated level of 106.93 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (33.40% of World total).   Projected U.S. soybean production for 2016 from the USDA 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum of 3.810 billion bushels (bb) or 103.69 mmt would be the third highest on record following years 2014 and 2015.

Figure 3. United States’ Soybean Supply-Demand Trends: MY 2006/07 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17.  Source: April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE Report, Feb. 25-26, 2016 USDA Ag Outlook Forum, and March 31st Prospective Plantings Report


U.S. Soybean Exports: United States’ soybean exports have grown from 36.1 mmt (1.317 bb) in MY 2012/13 (37.6% of World total), to 44.6 mmt (1.638 bb) in MY 2013/14 (39.55% of World total), to 50.2 mmt (1.843 bb) in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (39.85% of the World total), with an estimate of 46.4 mmt (1.705 bb) in “current crop” MY 2015/16.  Projected U.S. soybean exports for “next crop” MY 2016/17 from the USDA 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum of 1.825 bb or 49.7 mmt would be the second highest on record following 50.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15.

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks: United States’ soybean ending stocks have changed from 3.825 mmt (141 million bushels or ‘mb’) in MY 2012/13 (6.9% of World total), to a record low of 2.504 mmt (92 mb) in MY 2013/14 (4.05% of World total), to 5.188 mmt (191 mb) in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (6.7% of the World total), with a projection of 12.111 mmt (460 mb) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (15.3% of the World total).  Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2016 from the USDA 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum of 440 mb or 12.0 mmt would be up 378% larger than the record short supply amount of 92 mb in MY 2013/14, and a continuation of the large U.S. soybean ending stocks situation of “current crop” MY 2015/16.

Clearly one of the key negative factors affecting U.S. soybean market prices is the major increase in U.S. soybean ending stocks – to the degree that a “buyer’s market” exists in which there is limited motivation for potential buyers to bid soybean prices sharply higher in an effort to secure soybean supplies for usage.

The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Imports

It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year.  The USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2015/16 and beyond.  If recent strength in Chinese soybean imports and import demand were to falter or even to “moderate”, it would have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices. 

Kansas Cash Soybean Market Situation

As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2015 spot cash soybean prices at a selected local location such as Farmers Grain Coop in Hutchinson, Kansas (Hutchinson being a major grain market hub in the south central part of the state) had fallen to as low as $8.04 per bushel on October 1, 2015, and ultimately to $7.82 on both November 10 and 13, 2015, and March 1, 2016.  Since March 1st, cash soybean prices at this location have traded in the range of $7.86 (on March 2, 2016) to $9.38 (on April 21st), with a cash spot price of $9.06 ($0.81 under basis) offered on Friday, April 22nd.

On April 22nd, soybean forward contract prices for October delivery (i.e., the 2016 fall harvest) in South Central Kansas area within 35 miles of Hutchinson were in the range of $9.21 ($0.88 under basis) to $9.54 / bu. ($0.55 under basis November 2016 CME Soybean Futures).

Soybean Market Trend Outlook for 2016-2017

The current market consensus represented in USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are that a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, b) South American soybean production harvested in early-mid 2016 is again forecast to be record or near record high, and c) although still uncertain, U.S. soybean production prospects in 2016 under normal crop conditions are expected to approach if not exceed record highs in 2014 and 2015. 

At this time there is no indication any change is expected in these projected trends in production, exports, imports or ending stocks in the broader World soybean market, although there is the possibility of weather-related late season soybean production problems in South America and problems in the United States during summer-fall 2016 months.  Until and/or unless such potential South American and/or U.S. soybean production problems actually do occur, the World soybean market will likely assume that these dominating “adequate supply trends” will continue into the foreseeable future – with soybean prices remaining low compared to market highs since MY 2007/08.

I-B. CME MAY & NOVEMBER 2016 Soybean Futures Trends

Since lows of $8.53 ½ on November 23, 2015, $8.56 on January 6, 2016, and $8.56 on March 2nd,  MAY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) soybean futures prices have traded higher.  Since then, CME MAY 2016 soybean futures traded up to $10.34 ¾ on April 21st, then down to $9.77 ¼ on April 25th before closing at $9.99 ¾ that same day (Figure 4).

Similarly, since lows of $8.80 on September 11, 2015, $8.59 ¼ on November 10, 2015, $8.68 on January 6, 2016, and $8.68 on March 2nd, NOV 2016 CME soybean futures prices have traded higher.  Since then, CME MAY 2016 soybean futures traded up to $10.23 ½ on April 21st, then down to $9.76 on April 22nd, before closing at $9.97 ¾ on April 25th (Figure 4).

Figure 4. MAY and NOVEMBER 2016 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)


I-C. Kansas Soybean Seasonal Average Price Trends

Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas soybeans over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price trends (Figure 5).  Since MY 1999/00 Kansas soybean prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of October, with an average seasonal price index of 91.4% of the unweighted average Kansas soybean price for the September 1st through August 31st marketing year period.  Kansas cash soybean prices have tended to trend higher from harvest lows beginning in November. 

On average this uptrend in Kansas soybean prices has steadily continued through spring and mid-summer of the following year – up to highs during the following July of 108.1% of the marketing year average price.  The most variability around these monthly indices has occurred at the beginning of the marketing year (September-October), during March-April, and during August just prior to the start of the new crop marketing year in September.     

United States’ soybean prices are moving in an unusual price pattern in “current crop” MY 2015/16 – declining in February below prices that occurred during the September-January harvest to winter post-harvest period rather than following a more normal historical seasonal sideways-to-upward trend after harvest is completed in October.  United States soybean cash prices are forecast by the USDA to increase during the March through August 2016 period.

Figure 5. Kansas Soybean Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop” MY 2014/15) plus “Current Crop” MY 2015/16 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info)


I-D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index

Appreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies of U.S. trading partner countries began in earnest in August 2014 when the dollar index was valued at 77.2692 on August 15th (Figure 6). This upward trend continued through January 2016 with the index climbing to a high of 95.8011 on January 20th  - an increase of 24.0% from mid-August 2014 (Figure 6).  Since then a moderate decline occurred in early February 2016, followed by a sideways-to-lower trend through mid-April 2016.   On April 15, 2016 the U.S. Dollar index was calculated to be 89.5623 – down 6.5% from the January 20th high of 95.8011. 

Figure 6. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index – Major Currencies (DTWEXM)                     
(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)


The upward trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index since mid-2014 is significant negative factor in U.S. soybean and other U.S. grain export markets.  A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars in U.S. grain markets). 

Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. grain exports, it is a very important one – working against U.S. soybeans being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in World grain trade.   That said, the lack of alternative suppliers of soybeans for export markets outside of the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and other smaller South American countries makes the high value of the U.S. dollar less of an inhibiting factor for U.S. soybean exports than for U.S. wheat exports (for which a number of alternative export trade suppliers are available).

I-E. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production

Table 1 shows the USDA U.S. soybean supply-demand balance sheet for the MY 2007/08 through “current” MY 2015/16 period, with adjusted projections by the USDA and Kansas State University for “next crop” MY 2016/17.  United States’ soybean harvested and planted acreage for the year 2000 through projected 2016 period are shown in Figure 7, with U.S. soybean yields for 1973 through 2016 are shown in Figure 8.  U.S. Soybean Total Supplies for the 2004/05 through projected 2016/17 marketing years are shown in Figure 9.   Table 1 and Figures 7-9 show the growth in U.S. soybean production and total supplies since the smaller crop years of 2011 and 2012, and the expectation by the USDA of a continuation of large crops ( 3.800 billion bushels or ‘bb’ or more) and sizable U.S. soybean supplies in “next crop” MY 2016/17.

In the March 31st Prospective Plantings report, the USDA has preliminarily projected for year 2016 that there will be marginally lower U.S. soybean planted acres at 82.236 million acres or ‘ma’, compared to 82.650 ma in 2015 and the record high of 83.276 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 7).  Using historic average harvested-to-planted relationships of 98.81% (representing the average over the 2004-2015 period as calculated by Kansas State University), it can be projected based on the USDA’s planted acres figure that 2016 U.S. soybean harvested acres will be approximately 81.257 ma – down from the record high of 82.849 ma in 2015 and the near record of 82.591 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

At its 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 25-26, 2016, the USDA forecast 2016 U.S. soybean average yields to be 46.7 bu/ac, down from the record high of 48.0 bu/ac in 2015 and the near record of 4735 bu/ac in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 8).  The KSU projection for 2016 U.S. soybean average yield under no production problem equals the 1973-2015 trendline projection of 45.85 bu/ac – 0.85 bu/ac less than the USDA’s projection of 46.7 bu/ac. 

Based on these USDA’s 2016 planted acreage and yield forecasts and KSU-adjusted assumptions on harvested acres, 2016 U.S. soybean production is projected to be 3.795 bb, down from the record high of 3.929 bb in 2015, and the near record of 3.927 bb in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 9).  This adjusted USDA soybean production scenario is given a 35% probability of occurring by KSU estimates.

Figure 7. U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage: 2004-2016.  Sources: March 31, 2016 Prospective Planting Report & KSU 2016 projections

  

Figure 8. U.S. Soybean Yields: 1973-2016  Sources: March 9, 2016 WASDE Report, February 25-26, 2016 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, with KSU trend line projections for 2016 

 

Figure 9. U.S. Soybean Total Supplies: MY 2004/05 through “Next Crop” MY 2016/17;  Sources: April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE, February 25-26 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, & March 31st Prospective Planting Report

KSU Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17

With the lower acreage figures and lower yields, there are three alternative probability-weighted KSU U.S. soybean production scenarios for 2016 (Table 1).  These three scenarios each assume 1.5 ma more 2016 planted acres than the USDA at 82.236 ma, with 2016 harvested acres at 82.739 ma, based on percent harvested-to-planted acres of 98.81% (i.e., the U.S. average for the 2004-2015 period) (Table 1 and Figure 7).

For KSU Scenario A (KSU-A), with higher 2016 planted acreage of 83.736 ma, higher harvested acres of 82.739 ma, lower trendline yields of 45.85 bu/ac in 2016, then U.S. 2016 soybean production would equal 3.794 bb – essentially equal to the USDA 2016 projection of 3.795 bb (Table 1).  It is assumed that there is a 30% likelihood of this outcome occurring, compared to a 35% likelihood of the adjusted 2016 USDA projection of 3.795 bb. 

For KSU Scenario B (KSU-B), if a period of moderate crop stress were to occur in the U.S. in 2016, with higher 2016 planted acreage of 83.736 ma, higher harvested acres of 82.739 ma, lower yields of 44.0 bu/ac in 2016, then U.S. 2016 soybean production would equal 3.641 bb – down 154 mb the USDA 2016 projection of 3.795 bb (Table 1).  It is assumed that there is a 25% likelihood of this scenario occurring. 

For KSU Scenario C (KSU-C), if a severe drought were to occur in the U.S. in 2016, with higher 2016 planted acreage of 83.736 ma, higher harvested acres of 82.739 ma, sharply lower yields of 39.0 bu/ac in 2016, then U.S. 2016 soybean production would equal 3.227 bb – down 568 mb the USDA 2016 projection of 3.795 bb (Table 1).  It is assumed that there is a 10% likelihood of this scenario occurring. 

Table 1. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2009/10 through “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 as of April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE, February 26th Outlook Conference Forecasts, March 31st Prospective Plantings, and KSU projections for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17

Item

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

 

2013/14

2014/15

USDA 2015/16

USDA

Adjusted Ag Outlook Forum #s 2016/17

KSU-A

Higher Acres

Trend Yield

2016/17

KSU-B

Higher Acres

“Moderate

Stress” Yield

2016/17

KSU-C

Higher Acres

“Drought” Yield

2016/17

Percent Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

35%

30%

25%

10%

Planted Area (million acres)

77.451

77.404

75.046

77.198

76.840

83.276

83.650

*82.236

83.736

83.736

83.736

Harvested Area (million acres)

76.372

76.610

73.776

76.144

76.253

82.591

82.849

*81.257

82.739

82.739

82.739

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.6%

99.0%

98.3%

98.6%

99.2%

99.2 %

99.0%

98.8%

98.8%

98.8%

98.8%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

44.0

43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5

48.0

 46.7

 45.85

44.0

39.0

 

 

 

Beginning Stocks

138

151

215

169

141

92

191

*445

445

445

445

Production

3,361

3,331

3,097

3,042

3,358

3,927

3,929

3,795

3,794

3,641

3,227

Imports

15

14

16

41

72

33

30

30

30

30

30

Total Supply

3,514

3,497

3,328

3,252

3,570

4,052

4,150

*4,270

4,269

4,116

3,702

 

 

 

Domestic Crushings

1,752

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,734

1,873

 1,870

1,900

1,875

1,845

1,725

Exports

1,499

1,505

1,365

1,317

1,638

1,843

1,705

1,825

1,725

1,682

1,575

Seed

90

87

90

89

97

96

95

**96

96

96

96

Residual

22

42

1

16

10

49

34

**29

30

30

30

Total Use

3,363

3,282

3,159

3,111

3,478

3,862

3,705

3,850

3,726

3,653

3,426

 

 

 

Ending Stocks

151

215

169

141

92

191

445

**420

543

463

276

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.49%

6.55%

5.36%

4.53%

2.65%

4.95%

12.01%

**10.91%

14.57%

12.67%

8.06%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$9.59

 

$11.30

$12.50

$14.40

$13.00

$10.10

$8.50-$9.00

($8.75)

$8.50

 

$8.25

 

$8.60

 

$10.00

 

U.S. Soybean Use by Category & Total Use

Domestic Crush: The USDA in it’s February 25-26, 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum has forecast that U.S. soybean domestic crush in the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year will be 1.900 bb, up from the near-record high of 1.870 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from the current record high of 1.873 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 10).    

The KSU projection of U.S. soybean domestic crush in “next crop” MY 2016/17 for “full production” scenario KSU-A is 1.875 bb – down 25 mb from the USDA’s projection, but essentially equal to the current record high of 1.873 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and the second highest on record of 1.870 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16.  In the “moderate crop stress” KSU-B Scenario, U.S. soybean domestic crush is projected to be 1.845 bb, while in the “extreme drought” KSU-C Scenario, U.S. soybean domestic crush is forecast to be 1.725 bb, with projected domestic crush in both scenarios being adjusted lower with the reduction in available supplies and related increases in U.S. soybean prices.

Figure 10. U.S. Soybean Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17                          
Sources: April 12, 2016 WASDE Report, & February 25-26, 2016 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum

U.S. Soybean Exports: The USDA has forecast that U.S. soybean exports in the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year to be the second highest on record at 1.825 bb, up from 1.705 in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (up 15 mb from March), but down from the current record high of 1.843 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 10).   

The KSU projection of U.S. soybean exports in “next crop” MY 2016/17 for “full production” scenario KSU-A is 1.725 bb – down 100 mb from the USDA’s projection due to concerns about the ongoing negative impact of the continuing high value of the U.S. dollar relative to foreign currencies on U.S. soybean trade.   In the “moderate crop stress” KSU-B Scenario, U.S. soybean exports are projected to be 1.682 bb, while in the “extreme drought” KSU-C Scenario, U.S. soybean exports are forecast to be 1.575 bb, with projected exports in both scenarios being adjusted lower with the reduction in available supplies and related increases in U.S. soybean prices.

Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales in “current crop” MY 2015/16, as of April 14th, with 34.5 of 52 weeks (66.3%) of the marketing year complete, 1.535 bb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to 90.0% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.705 bb for “current crop” MY 2015/16 (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).  United States’ export shipments will need to average 9.7 mb per week through the remainder of the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s April 12th WASDE projection of 1.705 bb.  This compares to U.S. soybean export shipments of 15.0 mb and 12.5 mb which occurred during the weeks ending April 7th and 14th, respectively. 

Also as of April 14th an additional 127 mb of U.S. soybeans had also been sold for future export sales in the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year.  Of course these future sales of U.S. soybeans are subject to the risk of cancellation later prior to actual shipment – especially with the possibility of large supplies of exportable South American soybeans eventually to become available in spring 2016.   Adding together 1.535 bb in actual past shipments plus 127 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.662 bb, or 97.5% of the USDA’s 1.705 bb U.S. soybean export target for “current crop” MY 2015/16 in the April 12th USDA WASDE report, with 66.3% (34.5/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  

In normal marketing years beginning in the spring and lasting through the summer months, exports of U.S. soybeans need to run far ahead of the 52-week average pace due that the dramatic slowing of U.S. shipments that occurs when the South American soybean crop becomes fully available in quantity for export trade beginning in later March-May.  In “current crop” MY 2015/16 ending on August 31, 2016 it is positive for the U.S. soybean market that although U.S. export shipments have slowed considerably from earlier in the marketing year they continue to be ahead of pace to meet the USDA’s projection of 1.705 bb by the end of “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year. 

That said, the expected increase in exportable supplies from the 2016 South American soybean harvest during spring and early summer of 2016 will continue to provide competition for U.S. soybean exports through the remainder of the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year (i.e., through August 31, 2016) and beyond.  

Seed Use: It appears that the USDA has forecast that U.S. soybean seed use in the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year will be approximately 96 mb, up 1 mb from a projection of 95 mb (down 1 mb) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and nearly equal to 96 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 97 mb in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figure 10). 

Residual Use: It also appears that the USDA has forecast that U.S. soybean residual use in the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year will be approximately 29 mb, down from 34 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and down from 49 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 10 mb in MY 2013/14, and 16 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 10).  

Total U.S. Soybean Use: The USDA has forecast that U.S. soybean total use in the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year to be the second highest on record at 3.850 bb, up from projected total use of 3.705 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (up 15 mb from March), but less than the current record high of 3.862 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 10).    

The KSU projection of U.S. soybean total use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 for “full production” scenario KSU-A is 3.726 bb – down 124 mb from the USDA’s projection due to lower expectations for U.S. soybean exports and domestic crush.   In the “moderate crop stress” KSU-B Scenario, U.S. soybean total use is projected to be 3.653 bb, while in the “extreme drought” KSU-C Scenario, U.S. soybean total use is forecast to be 3.426 bb, with projected total use in both scenarios being adjusted lower with the reduction in available supplies and related increases in U.S. soybean prices.

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks:  Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for “next crop” MY 2016/17 by the USDA (with adjustments from KSU) are 420 mb – adjusted lower from a month ago by a 15 mb decrease in ending stocks for “current crop” MY 2015/16 from the April 12th USDA WASDE report.  This adjusted USDA figure of 420 mb in ending stocks for “next crop” MY 2016/17 would still be the second highest on record, being down from 445 mb forecast for “current crop” MY 2015/16 (down 15 mb from the March WASDE report as stated above) (Table 1 and Figure 10). 

The KSU projection of U.S. soybean ending stocks in “next crop” MY 2016/17 for “full production” scenario KSU-A is 543 mb – which would be a record high and up 123 mb from the USDA’s adjusted projection of 420 mb due to lower expectations by KSU for U.S. soybean exports and domestic crush.   In the “moderate crop stress” KSU-B Scenario, U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected to be 463 mb, while in the “extreme drought” KSU-C Scenario, U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecast to be 276 mb, with projected ending stocks in both scenarios being adjusted lower with the reduction in available supplies and related changes in U.S. soybean supply-demand balances.

Percent Ending Stocks-to-Use: The USDA in a KSU-adjusted forecast has projected that percent (%) ending stocks-to-use for U.S. soybeans in “next crop” MY 2016/17 will be approximately 10.91% - down from its projection of 12.01% in “current crop” MY 2015/16.  These USDA projections of 10.91% stocks-to-use for “next crop” MY 2016/17 and 12.01% stocks-to-use “current crop” MY 2015/16 are up sharply from 4.95% in “current” MY 2014/15, and the record low of 2.65% for MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figure 11). 

  The KSU projection of U.S. soybean ending stocks-to-use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 for “full production” scenario KSU-A is 14.57% – which would be up from the USDA’s adjusted projection of 10.91% due to lower expectations by KSU for U.S. soybean exports and domestic crush.   In the “moderate crop stress” KSU-B Scenario, U.S. soybean ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 12.67%, while in the “extreme drought” KSU-C Scenario, U.S. soybean ending stocks-to-use are forecast to be 8.06%, with projected ending stocks-to-use in both scenarios being adjusted lower with the reduction in available supplies and related changes in U.S. soybean supply-demand balances.

Season Average U.S. Soybean Prices:  The USDA has forecast that U.S. average soybean prices will be $8.50 per bushel for “next crop” NY 2016/17 (35% probability).  This USDA forecast is equal to the lower end of the forecast range for “current crop” MY 2015/16 of $8.50-$9.00 per bushel (midpoint = $8.75), and down from $10.10 /bu in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $13.00 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 11 and 12).     

  The KSU projection of U.S. soybean average prices in “next crop” MY 2016/17 for “full production” scenario KSU-A (30% probability) is $8.25 /bu – which would be down from the USDA’s projection of $8.50 due to lower expectations by KSU for U.S. soybean exports and domestic crush and consequently larger ending stocks and percent ending stocks-to-use.   In the “moderate drought” KSU-B Scenario (25% probability), U.S. soybean average prices are projected to be $8.60, while in the “extreme drought” KSU-C Scenario (10% probability), U.S. soybean average prices are forecast to be $10.00, as percent ending stocks-to-use tighten in response to changes in U.S. soybean supply-demand balances.

Figure 11. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 – “Next Crop” 2016/17   Sources: April 12, 2016 WASDE, the February 25-26 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, March 31st Prospective Plantings report, and KSU “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 Forecasts


Figure 12. U.S. Soybean Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use: MY 1973/74 through “Next Crop” MY 2016/17.  Sources: April 12, 2016 WASDE, the February 25-26 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, and the March 31st Prospective Plantings report


II. World Soybean Supply-Demand Trends

Based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates from PSD Online as of April 12, 2016 (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx), and the USDA April 12th WASDE report, the USDA is forecasting that World soybean production is projected to increase marginally (up 0.2%) in the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year from “old crop” MY 2014/15, and to be up 13.3% over MY 2013/14. 

World soybean total supplies in “current crop” MY 2015/16 of 397.9 mmt are up 4.3% from 381.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 17.8% from 337.9 mmt in MY 2013/14.  World soybean total use is also projected to increase by 5.6% in “current crop” MY 2015/16 over “old crop” MY 2014/15, and by 14.9% over MY 2013/14.

Figure 13. World Soybean Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “Current Crop” MY 2015/16   Sources: April 12, 2016 WASDE Report, and USDA Foreign Ag Service PSD Online


II-A. World Soybean Production by Country / Region

Projected World soybean production of 320.15 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 would be a record high, being up 0.2% from 319.55 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 13.3% from 282.6 in MY 2013/14, 268.6 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 212.0-264.3 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 2 and Figure 13).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean production is projected to be 213.2 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 0.3% from 212.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 11.5% from 191.2 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-B. World Soybean Exports by Country / Region

Global soybean exports in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be a record high 132.4 mmt, up 5.1% from 126.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 17.4% from 112.7 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 3 and Figure 13).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean exports are projected to be 86.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 13.5% from 75.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 26.2% from 68.1 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-C. World Soybean Imports by Country / Region

Global soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 129.85 mmt, up 6.4% from 122.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 16.2% from 111.8 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean imports are projected to be 129.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 6.5% from 121.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 17.4% from 109.9 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-D. World Soybean Domestic Crush by Country / Region

Global soybean domestic crush in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be 277.7 mmt, up 5.9% from 262.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 15.1% from 241.3 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean domestic crush is projected to be 226.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 7.4% from 211.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 16.8% from 194.1 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-E. World Soybean Food, Seed & Residual (FSR) Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean food, seed, and residual (FSR) use of 38.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is a record high, up 2.9% from 37.6 mmt for “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 13.9% from 34.0 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 6).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean FSR use is projected to be 35.15 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 4.5% from 33.65 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 13.1% from 31.1 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-F. World Soybean Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean total use of 316.35 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is a record high, up 5.6% from the previous record of 299.7 mmt for “old crop” MY 2014/15, up 14.9% from 275.25 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up from the range of 221.9-261.45 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2012/13 period (Table 7 and Figure 13).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean total use is projected to be 261.9 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 7.0% from 244.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 16.3% from 225.2 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-G. World Soybean Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World soybean ending stocks of 79.0 mmt for “current crop” MY 2015/16 are up 1.7% from 77.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 27.9% from 61.8 mmt in MY 2013/14, and above the range of 43.0-70.2 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2012/13 period (Table 8 and Figure 13).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks are projected to be 66.9 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, down 7.8% from 72.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 12.9% from 59.3 mmt in MY 2013/14.

II-H. World Soybean % Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Forecast World soybean percent ending stocks-to-use of 25.0% in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 25.9% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, up from 22.4% in MY 2013/14, and is within the range of 19.4% to 27.9% during the MY 2007/08-2012/13 period (Table 9 and Figure 14).  The minimum levels of World soybean % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1960s occurred in MY 1976/77 (6.9% S/U), MY 1996/97 (11.8% S/U), and MY 1978/79 (12.6% S/U).  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 19.4% in MY 2008/09 is the lowest since 19.3% in MY 2001/02.  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 19.2% in “current crop” MY 2015/16, down from 22.6% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down from 20.2% in MY 2013/14.

II-H. Relationship Between World % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. soybean ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average soybean prices (see Figure 12), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. soybean season average cash prices and World soybean % ending stocks-to-use (Figure 14).  However, there appear to be two separate supply-demand relationship regimes represented in this graphic, the lower price regime that occurred during the MY 1973/74 – 2005/06 period, and the higher price regime occurring starting in MY 2006/07 and continuing through the present time.  The later period (since MY 2006/07) coincides with the sharp growth in Chinese soybean import demand in World soybean markets.  

Since MY 2006/07 in particular, larger World soybean supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World soybean prices.  Conversely smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher soybean prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 12 earlier, U.S. soybean prices in Figure 14 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Since MY 2006/07, the minimum World soybean percent stocks-to-use was 19.4% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 2008/09.  “Current crop” projections are for World soybean percent stocks-to-use to be 25.0% in “current crop” MY 2015/16. 

Figure 14. U.S. Soybean Price vs World % Stocks-to-Use: MY 1973/74 through Implied “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 Sources: April 12, 2016 WASDE Report, and USDA Foreign Ag Service PSD Online

Table 2. World Soybean Production Forecasts for “Current Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Production: Current crop 2015/16     April 2016

Soybean Production: March 2016 Current crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Production:               April Less March                

Current crop 2015/16 Production:                Percent (%)         April 2016 of March 2016

April  Soybean Production: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

March Soybean Production: Old crop Crop 2014/15

April Less March Soybean  Production             for 2014/15

Current crop 2015/16 Production             Less Old crop 2014/15

% Current crop 2015/16 Production of                         Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean Production: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Production             Less 2013/14

% Current crop 2015/16 Production       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

320.15

320.21

(0.06)

100.0%

319.55

318.57

0.98

0.60

100.2%

282.61

37.54

113.3%

United States

106.93

106.93

0.00

100.0%

106.88

106.88

0.00

0.05

100.0%

91.39

15.54

117.0%

Total Foreign

213.22

213.27

(0.05)

100.0%

212.67

211.69

0.98

0.55

100.3%

191.22

22.00

111.5%

Major Exporters

170.91

170.41

0.50

100.3%

169.81

168.81

1.00

1.10

100.6%

151.59

19.32

112.7%

Argentina

59.00

58.50

0.50

100.9%

61.40

61.40

0.00

(2.40)

96.1%

53.50

5.50

110.3%

Brazil

100.00

100.00

0.00

100.0%

97.20

96.20

1.00

2.80

102.9%

86.70

13.30

115.3%

Paraguay

8.80

8.80

0.00

100.0%

8.10

8.10

0.00

0.70

108.6%

8.19

0.61

107.4%

Major Importers

15.41

15.48

(0.07)

99.5%

15.42

15.40

0.02

(0.01)

99.9%

14.48

0.93

106.4%

China

11.80

12.00

(0.20)

98.3%

12.15

12.15

0.00

(0.35)

97.1%

11.95

(0.15)

98.7%

World less China

308.35

308.21

0.14

100.0%

307.40

306.42

0.98

0.95

100.3%

270.66

37.69

113.9%

% China of World

3.7%

3.7%

-0.1%

98.4%

3.8%

3.8%

0.0%

-0.1%

96.9%

4.2%

-0.5%

87.2%

European Union - 28

2.20

2.05

0.15

107.3%

1.83

1.81

0.02

0.37

120.2%

1.21

0.99

181.8%

Japan

0.22

0.22

0.00

100.0%

0.23

0.23

0.00

(0.01)

95.7%

0.20

0.02

110.0%

Mexico

0.36

0.36

0.00

100.0%

0.36

0.36

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.24

0.12

150.0%

Table 3. World Soybean Export Forecasts for “Current Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Exports: Current crop 2015/16     April 2016

Soybean Exports: March 2016 Current crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Exports:               April Less March          

Current crop 2015/16 Exports:                Percent (%)         April 2016 of March 2016

April Soybean Exports: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

March Soybean Exports: Old crop Crop 2014/15

April Less March Soybean  Exports             for 2014/15

Current crop 2015/16 Exports Less Old crop 2014/15

% Current crop 2015/16 Exports of Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean Exports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Exports             Less 2013/14

% Current crop 2015/16 Exports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

132.36

130.90

1.46

101.1%

125.97

125.88

0.09

6.39

105.1%

112.70

19.66

117.4%

United States

46.40

45.99

0.41

100.9%

50.17

50.17

0.00

(3.77)

92.5%

44.57

1.83

104.1%

Total Foreign

85.96

84.90

1.06

101.2%

75.71

75.71

0.00

10.25

113.5%

68.13

17.83

126.2%

Major Exporters

78.35

77.25

1.10

101.4%

68.52

68.41

0.11

9.83

114.3%

62.67

15.68

125.0%

Argentina

11.40

11.80

(0.40)

96.6%

10.57

10.57

0.00

0.83

107.9%

7.84

3.56

145.4%

Brazil

59.50

58.00

1.50

102.6%

50.61

50.61

0.00

8.89

117.6%

46.83

12.67

127.1%

Paraguay

4.60

4.60

0.00

100.0%

4.49

4.38

0.11

0.11

102.4%

4.80

(0.20)

95.8%

Major Importers

0.33

0.38

(0.05)

86.8%

0.29

0.29

0.00

0.04

113.8%

0.34

(0.01)

97.1%

China

0.15

0.20

(0.05)

75.0%

0.14

0.14

0.00

0.01

107.1%

0.22

(0.07)

68.2%

World less China

132.21

130.70

1.51

101.2%

125.83

125.74

0.09

6.38

105.1%

112.48

19.73

117.5%

% China of World

0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

74.2%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

102.0%

0.2%

-0.1%

58.1%

European Union - 28

0.15

0.15

0.00

100.0%

0.12

0.12

0.00

0.03

125.0%

0.06

0.09

250.0%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Table 4. World Soybean Import Forecasts for “Current crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Imports: Current crop 2015/16     April 2016

Soybean Imports: March 2016 Current crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Imports:               April Less March              

Current crop 2015/16 Imports:                Percent (%)         April 2016 of March 2016

April Soybean Imports: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

March Soybean Imports: Old crop Crop 2014/15

April Less March Soybean  Imports             for 2014/15

Current crop 2015/16 Imports             Less Old crop 2014/15

% Current crop 2015/16 Imports of Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean Imports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Imports             Less 2013/14

% Current crop 2015/16 Imports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

129.85

128.16

1.69

101.3%

122.08

122.15

(0.07)

7.77

106.4%

111.78

18.07

116.2%

United States

0.82

0.82

0.00

100.0%

0.90

0.90

0.00

(0.08)

91.1%

1.95

(1.13)

42.1%

Total Foreign

129.03

127.35

1.68

101.3%

121.17

121.24

(0.07)

7.86

106.5%

109.90

19.13

117.4%

Major Exporters

0.37

0.32

0.05

115.6%

0.32

0.33

(0.01)

0.05

115.6%

0.63

(0.26)

58.7%

Argentina

0.05

0.00

0.05

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.05

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.05

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.30

0.30

0.00

100.0%

0.31

0.31

0.00

(0.01)

96.8%

0.61

(0.31)

49.2%

Paraguay

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

Major Importers

110.43

109.18

1.25

101.1%

105.25

105.26

(0.01)

5.18

104.9%

96.52

13.91

114.4%

China

83.00

82.00

1.00

101.2%

78.35

78.35

0.00

4.65

105.9%

70.36

12.64

118.0%

World less China

46.85

46.16

0.69

101.5%

43.73

43.80

(0.07)

3.12

107.1%

41.42

5.43

113.1%

% China of World

63.9%

64.0%

-0.1%

99.9%

64.2%

64.1%

0.0%

-0.3%

99.6%

62.9%

1.0%

101.5%

European Union - 28

13.20

13.20

0.00

100.0%

13.39

13.39

0.00

(0.19)

98.6%

13.29

(0.09)

99.3%

Japan

3.10

2.90

0.20

106.9%

3.00

3.00

0.00

0.10

103.3%

2.89

0.21

107.3%

Mexico

3.95

3.85

0.10

102.6%

3.82

3.82

0.00

0.13

103.4%

3.84

0.11

102.9%

Table 5. World Soybean Crush Forecasts for “Current Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean Crush                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Crush: Current crop 2015/16     April 2016

Soybean Crush: March 2016 Current crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Crush:               April Less March                

Current crop 2015/16 Crush:                Percent (%)         April 2016 of March 2016

April Soybean Crush: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

March Soybean Crush: Old crop Crop 2014/15

April Less March Soybean  Crush for 2014/15

Current crop 2015/16 Crush             Less Old crop 2014/15

% Current crop 2015/16 Crush of Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean Crush: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2015/16 Crush             Less 2013/14

% Current crop 2015/16 Crush       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

277.66

278.04

(0.38)

99.9%

262.08

262.39

(0.31)

15.58

105.9%

241.27

36.39

115.1%

United States

50.89

50.89

0.00

100.0%

50.98

50.98

0.00

(0.09)

99.8%

47.19

3.70

107.8%

Total Foreign

226.77

227.15

(0.38)

99.8%

211.11

211.42

(0.31)

15.66

107.4%

194.08

32.69

116.8%

Major Exporters

90.00

90.00

0.00

100.0%

84.52

84.01

0.51

5.48

106.5%

76.47

13.53

117.7%

Argentina

45.70

45.70

0.00

100.0%

40.24

40.24

0.00

5.46

113.6%

36.17

9.53

126.3%

Brazil

40.00

40.00

0.00

100.0%

40.44

39.93

0.51

(0.44)

98.9%

36.86

3.14

108.5%

Paraguay

4.10

4.10

0.00

100.0%

3.65

3.65

0.00

0.45

112.3%

3.35

0.75

122.4%

Major Importers

105.99

106.31

(0.32)

99.7%

98.03

98.73

(0.70)

7.96

108.1%

91.35

14.64

116.0%

China

13.80

81.80

(68.00)

16.9%

74.50

74.50

0.00

(60.70)

18.5%

68.85

(55.05)

20.0%

World less China

263.86

196.24

67.62

134.5%

187.58

187.89

(0.31)

76.28

140.7%

172.42

91.44

153.0%

% China of World

5.0%

29.4%

-24.5%

16.9%

28.4%

28.4%

0.0%

-23.5%

17.5%

28.5%

-23.6%

17.4%

European Union - 28

13.80

14.30

(0.50)

96.5%

13.60

14.20

(0.60)

0.20

101.5%

13.40

0.40

103.0%

Japan

2.20

2.02

0.18

108.9%

2.15

2.15

0.00

0.05

102.3%

1.97

0.23

111.7%

Mexico

4.25

4.15

0.10

102.4%

4.18

4.18

0.00

0.07

101.7%

4.03

0.22

105.5%

Table 6. World Soybean Food, Seed, and Residual (FSR) Use Forecasts for “Current Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean End Stocks                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean FSR: Current crop 2015/16     April 2016

Soybean FSR: March 2016 Current crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2015/16 FSR:               April Less March                  

Current crop 2015/16 FSR: Percent (%) April 2016 of March 2016

April Soybean FSR: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

March Soybean FSR: Old crop Crop 2014/15

April Less March Soybean  FSR             for 2014/15

Current crop 2015/16 FSR Less Old crop 2014/15

% Current crop 2015/16 FSR of                         Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean FSR: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2015/16 FSR Less                     2013/14

% Current crop 2015/16 FSR of                         2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

38.69

37.71

0.98

102.6%

37.61

36.97

0.64

1.08

102.9%

33.98

4.71

113.9%

United States

3.53

3.54

(0.01)

99.7%

3.95

3.95

0.00

(0.42)

89.4%

2.90

0.63

121.7%

Total Foreign

35.15

34.17

0.98

102.9%

33.65

33.01

0.64

1.50

104.5%

31.08

4.07

113.1%

Major Exporters

7.47

7.33

0.14

101.9%

7.25

7.31

(0.06)

0.22

103.0%

6.66

0.81

112.2%

Argentina

4.35

4.15

0.20

104.8%

4.16

4.16

0.00

0.19

104.6%

3.59

0.76

121.2%

Brazil

3.00

3.00

0.00

100.0%

2.97

2.97

0.00

0.03

101.0%

2.95

0.05