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Soybean Market Outlook in Mid-December 2015

December 23, 2015


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on December 9th, soybean futures prices have moved higher.  Near term “weakness” in U.S. and World soybean market prices are limited by the cumulative effect of several market factors, including a) record 2014 South American and U.S. soybean crops leading to 24% growth in “old crop” MY 2014/15 World soybean stocks to 77.7 mmt (25.9% stocks/use), b) record 2015 U.S. soybean production of 3.981 billion bushels (bb), c) prospects for second consecutive record 2016 South American soybean crop, d) projected “new crop” MY 2015/16 World soybean ending stocks of 82.6 mmt (26.4% stocks/use), and e) the high value of the U.S. dollar – putting U.S. soybeans at a disadvantage to exportable supplies from South America (with their “weaker” currencies).  

The development of dry growing conditions in key soybean production regions in northern Brazil, and changes in Argentine export taxation policies have added new elements of uncertainty to 2016 soybean market prospects.  Developing South American crop prospects will continue to factor into soybean market prospects through spring 2016.  Also, IF significant World geopolitical conflicts and/or financial market problems occur, their impact on soybean markets in terms of volatility and direction is difficult to predict.

Longer term, since MY 2008/09 the strong upward trend in World soybean production (up 7.3% annually) has “out-paced” the increase in World soybean use (up 5.8% per year), leading to record World soybean ending stocks and high percent stocks-to-use, with a dramatic reduction in price prospects in the coming year.  Absent major unforeseen crop production problems in the U.S. and South America in year 2016, low prices and poor profitability are likely to cause a scaling back or “leveling” of World soybean production in 2017 and beyond.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast of “New Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. soybean production of a record 3.981 bb – up from the 2014 previous record of 3.969 bb.  For “new crop” 2015/16, USDA projected U.S. total supplies at a record 4.203 bb (vs 4.052 bb in MY 2014/15), crush at 1.890 bb, exports at 1.715 bb (down from the record 1.843 bb in MY 2014/15), total use at 3.738 bb (vs record of 3.861 bb in MY 2014/15), and ending stocks at a 9 year high of 465 mb (up from 191 million bushels or ‘mb’ in MY 2014/15).   Ending stocks-to-use are projected at 12.44% - up from 4.95% in MY 2014/15, and the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14.  The USDA forecast “new crop” 2015/16 prices to be in the range $8.15-$9.65 (midpoint = $8.90 /bu) – down from $10.10 in MY 2014/15, $13.00 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13.     

Kansas State University U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2015/16:

A) KSU “Lower Price” Scenario: 70% probability of USDA supply-demand figures with a lower price, i.e., 465 mb end stocks, 12.44% ending Stx/Use, & $8.75 /bu.

B) KSU “Lower Yields & Production” Scenario: 25% probability of U.S. soybean yield of 47.5 bu/ac, 3.915 bb 2015 production, 4.136 bb total supplies, 3.710 bb total use, 426 mb end stocks, 11.5% Stx/Use, & $9.10 /bu.

C) KSU “Higher Exports” Scenario: 5% prob. of 1.825 bb exports (up 110 mb vs USDA), 3.845 bb total use, 358 mb ending stocks, 9.3% ending Stx/Use, & $9.50 /bu.   

USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA provided an initial forecast of U.S. soybean supply-demand and prices for the “next crop” MY 2016/17.  USDA forecast 2016 U.S. soybean plantings of 82.0 million acres (ma) – down 1.205 ma from 2015, with harvested acres of 81.1 ma down 1.329 ma vs 2015.  With projected yields of 46.7 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. soybean production is projected to be 3.785 bb.  With forecast MY 2016/17 total use of 3.859 bb, and ending stocks of 421 mb (10.9% S/U), U.S. soybean prices are projected to be $8.65 /bu – down $0.25 from $8.90 /bu in “new crop” MY 2015/16.



I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. December 2015 USDA WASDE Report

On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean and soybean product supply-demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.  The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. soybeans began on September 1, 2015 and will last through August 31, 2016.   For soybean meal and soybean oil, the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year began on October 1, 2015 and will last through September 30, 2016.

I-B. Commentary on World Soybean Market Trends

The activities of the World soybean market over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood by recognizing several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade among major countries and regions of the World involved in soybean trade.  The primary countries involved in or “driving” these predominant trends have been China in terms of demand factors, and South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others) and the United States in regards to supply-oriented factors.

Uptrends in Chinese Soybean Usage, Imports, and Domestic Stocks

Growing Chinese domestic use and imports of soybeans have been the key market demand “driver in World soybean markets in recent years.  

China Soybean Domestic Use: Chinese soybean domestic usage has increased from 76.18 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (29.1% of World use), up to 80.6 mmt in MY 2013/14 (29.2% of World use), to 86.70 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (28.9% of World use), and further up to a projected level of 93.2 mmt (29.8% of World use) in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Chinese soybean domestic usage of 93.2 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be up 7.5% over 86.70 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, up 15.6% over 80.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 22.3% over MY 2012/13.  

China Soybean Domestic Production: Chinese domestic production of soybeans was 13.05 mmt in MY 2012/13 (17.1% of total domestic use), 12.2 mmt in MY 2013/14 (15.1% of domestic usage), 12.35 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (14.2% of domestic use), and is projected to be 11.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (12.3% of domestic use).  With domestic production declining as a proportion of total domestic use of soybeans in China over the last three marketing years – and with more declines expected in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – China is forced to rely even more heavily on sizable amounts of soybean imports to fill domestic use needs.  

China Soybean Imports: Chinese soybean imports were estimated to be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13 (62.4% of World soybean imports), 70.4 mb in MY 2013/14 (63.0% of the World total), and 78.35 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (64.3% of the World total), while being projected at 80.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (63.5% of the World total).  Chinese soybean imports of 80.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be up 2.7% over “old crop” MY 2014/15, up 14.4% over MY 2013/14, and up 34.5% over 59.9 mmt in MY 2012/13.  

China Soybean Ending Stocks: In addition, Chinese soybean ending stocks were estimated to be 12.4 mb in MY 2012/13 (22.0% of World soybean ending stocks), 14.1 mb in MY 2013/14 (22.6% of the World total), and 18.0 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (23.2% of the World total), while being projected at 16.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (20.1% of the World total).  Chinese soybean ending stocks of 16.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be down 7.8% from “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up 17.4% over MY 2013/14, and up 34.0% over MY 2012/13. 

Uptrends in Key South American Soybean Country Production, Exports & Ending Stocks

Soybean Production for “Top 3” South American Countries: There have been three successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay soybean production of 139.5 mmt in MY 2012/13, 148.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 162.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with a fourth successive increase projected up to 165.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Soybean production from these three key South American countries amounted to 51.9% of World production in MY 2012/13, 52.4% in MY 2013/14, and 51.9% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and is projected to be 51.8% of the World total in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Projected combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean production of 165.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is estimated to be up 0.06% over “old crop” MY 2014/15, up 11.7% over MY 2013/14, and up 18.85% over MY 2012/13.

Soybean Exports for “Top 3” South American Countries: South American soybean exports have grown in a manner similar to production over this same period. Overall, combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean exports have trended higher in recent years – starting with 55.16 mmt in MY 2012/13, then up to 59.47 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 65.56 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with an increase projected up to 72.85 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Total soybean exports from these three key South American countries as a proportion of World exports has amounted to 54.7% in MY 2012/13, to 52.7% in MY 2013/14, and 52.1% of the World total in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 56.2% of World soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

Projected combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean exports of 72.85 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 11.1% from 65.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, up 22.5% from 59.47 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 32.1% from 55.2 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Soybean Ending Stocks for “Top 3” South American Countries: There have been three successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay soybean ending stocks of 36.8 mmt in MY 2012/13, 42.3 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 50.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with a marginal projected decrease to 50.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Soybean ending stocks in these three key South American countries amounted to 65.4% of World stocks in MY 2012/13, 67.7% in MY 2013/14, and 65.6% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and is projected to be 60.7% of the World total in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Projected combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean ending stocks of 50.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is estimated to be down 1.7% from “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up 18.3% over MY 2013/14, and up 36.25% over MY 2012/13.

Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production, Exports & Ending Stocks

U.S. Soybean Production: The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this same three-year period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt in MY 2013/14 (32.3% of World total), 106.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (33.5% of the World total), and a projected level of 108.35 mmt in MY 2015/16 (33.85% of World total).   Projected U.S. soybean production of 108.35 mmt (3.981 billion bushels or ‘bb’) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be up 1.4% from 106.9 mmt (3.927 bb) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up 18.6% from 91.4 mmt (3.358 bb) in MY 2013/14, and up 30.9% from 82.8 mmt (3.042 bb) in MY 2012/13.

U.S. Soybean Exports: United States’ soybean exports have grown from 36.1 mmt (1.317 bb) in MY 2012/13 (35.8% of World total), to 44.6 mmt (1.638 bb) in MY 2013/14 (39.5% of World total), to 50.2 mmt (1.843 bb) in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (39.8% of the World total), with a projection of 46.7 mmt (1.890 bb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Projected U.S. soybean exports of 46.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be down 7.0% from “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up 4.7% from MY 2013/14, and up 29.2% from MY 2012/13.  

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks: United States’ soybean ending stocks have changed from 3.8 mmt (141 mb) in MY 2012/13 (6.8% of World total), to a record low of 2.5 mmt (92 mb) in MY 2013/14 (4.0% of World total), to 5.2 mmt (191 mb) in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (6.7% of the World total), with a projection of 12.6 mmt (465 mb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 12.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would to be up 142.7% from “old crop” MY 2014/15, up 405.0% from MY 2013/14, and up 230.6% from MY 2012/13.  Clearly one of the key negative factors affecting the U.S. soybean market in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is the strong increase in ending stocks – to the degree that they are “burdensome” to store and handle logistically in combination with other large supplies of corn, grain sorghum, and wheat here in the U.S..

The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Imports

It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year.  The USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 and beyond.  If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports and import demand were to falter or even to “level” or “moderate”, it would unquestionably have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices. 

Kansas Cash Soybean Market Situation

As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2015 spot cash soybean prices at a selected local location such as Farmers Grain Coop in Hutchinson, Kansas (Hutchinson being a major grain market hub in the south central part of the state) had fallen to as low as $8.04 per bushel on October 1, 2015, and ultimately to $7.82 on both November 10 and 13, 2015.  Cash soybean prices at this location have traded in the range of $7.84 (on November 13, 2015) to $8.40 (on December 4, 2015) since then, with a cash spot price of $8.21 ($0.62 under basis) offered on Wednesday morning, December 23rd.

Soybean forward contract prices for October-November 2016 (i.e., the 2016 fall harvest) in South Central Kansas area within 35 miles of Hutchinson on Wednesday, December 23rd were in the range of $7.98 ($1.00 under basis) to $8.23 / bu. ($0.75 under basis November 2016 CME Soybean Futures). 

Soybean Market Trend Outlook for 2016-2017

Given that the USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2016/17 indicate that a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production harvested in early-mid 2016 is again forecast to be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in these projected trends in production, exports, imports or ending stocks in the broader World soybean market.   The possibility of weather-related soybean production problems in South America in the first 6 months of 2016, and in the United States during summer-fall 2016 months, could impact these trends.  However, until and unless such potential production problems actually do occur, the World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant adequate supply trends” will continue into the foreseeable future – with soybean prices remaining low by recent year’s market standards.

I-B. CME JANUARY & NOVEMBER 2016 Soybean Futures Trends

 “New crop” JANUARY 2016 soybean futures contract prices responded in a neutral manner to the information in the December 9th USDA reports (Figure 1).  On the day of the reports CME JANUARY 2015 futures prices opened at $8.77 /bu, and traded as high as $8.83 ¾ and as low as $8.69 ¾ during the session, before settling at $8.76 ¾ – unchanged from the previous day.   Since then JANUARY 2016 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a low of $8.54 on December 17th, to a high of $8.96 ¼ on Monday, December 21st, before closing at $8.85 ¼ on Tuesday, December 22nd.     

Figure 1. JAN and NOV 2016 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

 

“New crop” NOVEMBER 2016 soybean futures contract prices also responded in essentially a neutral-to-positive manner to the information in the December 9th USDA reports (Figure 1).  On December 9th – the day of the reports – CME NOVEMBER 2016 futures prices opened at $8.95 /bu, and traded as high as $9.01 ¼ and as low as $8.89 during the session, before settling at $8.95 ½ – up $0.00 ¼ for the day.   Since then NOVEMBER 2016 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a low of $8.70 on December 17th, to a high of $9.11 ½ on December 21st, before closing at $9.01 ¼ on Tuesday, December 22nd.    

I-C. Kansas Soybean Seasonal Average Price Trends

Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas corn over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price trends (Figure 2).  Since MY 1999/00 Kansas soybean prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of October, with an average seasonal price index of 91.4% of the unweighted average Kansas soybean price for the September 1st through August 31st marketing year period.  Kansas cash soybean prices have then tended to trend higher from harvest lows beginning in November.  On average this uptrend in Kansas soybean prices has continued from November through mid-summer months (July) of the following year – up to highs of 108.1% of the marketing year average price in July.  The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred at the beginning quarter (September-November), during March-April, and during August.      

Figure 2. Kansas Soybean Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop” MY 2014/15) plus “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info)

 

In it’s December 9th WASDE report the USDA has projected “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year average soybean prices to be in the range of $8.15 - $9.65 per bushel, with range midpoint of $8.90.   Monthly U.S. soybean prices as a percent of the USDA’s national average marketing year wheat price projection of $8.90 per bushel has declined steadily from a high of 101.7% ($9.05 /bu) in September down to 99.0% ($8.81) in October, 96.3% ($8.57 - estimate) in November, and 96.2% ($8.56 - estimate) in December 2015. 

United States’ soybean prices are moving in an unusual price pattern in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – declining during the October-November-December harvest to immediate post-harvest period rather than following a more normal seasonal sideways-to-upward trend after harvest is completed in October.  A moderation rather than outright strength in U.S. soybean exports caused by a combination of a) large World soybean supply-demand balances, and b) the high value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies, is the primary cause of this downward price trend for soybeans in fall-early winter 2016.

I-D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index

The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher from mid-July 2011 through early July 2014 (Figure 3).  After an index value of 75.70 on July 1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 93.46 on Friday, March 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%.  After moving lower for a period of time, the index rose again to a high of 95.21 on December 17, 2015. The latest recorded value of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 94.62 on Monday, December 18, 2015 – moving sideways to higher from the March 2015 high.

Figure 3. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)

 

This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is significant to the U.S. soybean and other grain markets, because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars).  That said, the lack of alternative suppliers of soybeans outside of the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and other smaller South American countries makes the high value of the U.S. dollar less of an inhibiting factor for U.S. soybean exports than for U.S. wheat and corn exports.

I-E. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production

The USDA maintained it’s projection of 2015 U.S. soybean planted acres to be 83.205 million acres (ma) in the December 9th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, unchanged from the November 10th and October 9th USDA reports, but down 1,134,000 acres from 84.339 ma in September.   This projection of 83.205 million acres (ma) of 2015 U.S. soybeans planted is down from the record high of 83.276 ma in 2014, but up from 76.840 ma in 2013, 77.198 ma in 2012, and 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

The USDA also maintained in the December 9th report its’ projection that 2015 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 82.429 ma – unchanged from November-October but down 1,120,000 acres from the September USDA reports.  This projection of 82.429 ma is down from the record high 82.591 ma in 2014, 76.253 ma in 2013, 76.144 ma in 2012, and from 73.776 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  The USDA implicitly projected that the proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage in 2015 is 99.1%, down marginally from 99.2% in 2014 and 2013, but up from 98.6% in drought-stricken 2012.  

In the December 9th reports the USDA left unchanged it’s forecast 2015 U.S. average soybean yields to be 48.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) from November – but up 1.1 bu/ac from the USDA’s October projection, and up 1.2 bu/ac from September (Table 1 and Figure 5).  This December 2015 USDA projection of 2015 U.S. soybean yields of 48.3 bu/ac is a record high, up from 47.5 bu/ac in 2014, 44.0 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 40.0 bu/ac., 42.0 bu/ac in 2011, 43.5 bu/ac in 2010, and up from 44.0 bu/ac in 2009.  

Based on this combination of USDA December 9th projections for 2015 planted acreage (83.205 ma), harvested acreage (82.429 ma), and yield (48.3 bu/ac), projected 2015 U.S. soybean production is a record high 3.981 billion bushels (bb) – unchanged from November, but up 93 million bushels (mb) from the USDA’s October projections, and up 46 mb from September.  This projection of 3.981 bb in U.S. soybean production in 2015 is the highest on record, up from the 2nd highest amount of 3.927 bb in 2014, and 3.358 bb in 2013 (Table 1 and Figure 6).   

U.S. Soybean Total Supplies

The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “new crop” MY 2015/16 will be a record high 4.203 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 191 million bushels (mb), projected 2015 production of 3.981 bb, and projected imports of 30 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 6).   

Over the recent period of expansion since 2006 in both Chinese soybean import demand and U.S. corn ethanol production, total supplies of U.S. soybeans were 3.655 bb in MY 2006/07 (3rd highest on record), 3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.514 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.497 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.328 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.252 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.570 bb in MY 2013/14, the 2nd highest amount of record of 4.052 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now the projection of a new record high of 4.203 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

Beginning stocks of 191 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are unchanged from October-November, and are markedly higher than the record low of 92 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, 141 mb in MY 2013/14, 169 mb in MY 2012/13, and 215 mb in MY 2011/12.  Beginning stocks of 191 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are comparable to the recent highs of 449 mb in MY 2006/07 (2nd highest on record), and the record high of 574 mb in MY 2007/08 .  Conversely, the estimate of record low beginning stocks of 92 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the low of 112 mb which occurred in MY 2004/05, and to what was the previous record low since the early 1970s of 103 mb in beginning stocks in MY 1977/78 (Table 1 and Figure 6). 

Projected imports of 30 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are down from 33 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down from the record high of 72 mb in MY 2013/14, and from the 2nd highest amount on record of 41 mb in MY 2012/13.   Projected United States’ soybean imports of 30 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would represent a trend toward near “normal” levels historically – being comparable to the range of 10 – 16 mb in U.S. soybean imports for the MY 2007/08 through MY 2011/12 period, and to U.S. soybean imports of less than 10 mb per marketing year going back to at least MY 1980/81.

U.S. Soybean Use by Category & Total Use

Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crush of 1.890 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 isa new record high, up from 1.873 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, 1.734 bb for MY 2013/14, 1.689 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.703 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.648 bb MY 2010/11, and from a past high of 1.752 bb in MY 2009/10 (Table 1 and Figure 7).  The earlier historic record high amounts of U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.808 bb occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity-wise with 1.803 bb in MY 2007/08. 

U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.715 in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be the second highest on record, down from the current record of 1.873 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 7).  United States’ soybean exports were 1.116 bb in MY 2006/07, followed by 1.159 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.505 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.365 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.317 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.638 bb in MY 2013/14, the current record high of 1.873 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and the projection of 1.715 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales in “new crop” MY 2015/16, as of December 10th, with 15.5 of 52 weeks (59.8%) of the marketing year complete, 832.2 mb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to 48.4% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.715 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).  United States’ export shipments will need to average 24.2 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s December 9th WASDE projection of 1.715 bb.  This compares to U.S. soybean export shipments of 59.8 mb and 57.1 mb which occurred during the weeks ending December 3rd and 10th, respectively.  Exports of U.S. soybeans need to run far ahead of the 52 week average pace due that the dramatic slowing of U.S. shipments that occurs when the 2016 South American soybean crop begins becoming available in quantity for export trade beginning in March-May, 2016.  If the time of focus for U.S. soybean export continues for approximately 3-4 months (i.e., 12-16 weeks), then over say the next 14 weeks U.S. soybean export shipments will need to average approximately 45-55 mb per week to meet USDA projections. 

Also as of December 10th an additional 460.4 mb of U.S. soybeans had also been sold for future export sales in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year.  Of course these future sales of U.S. soybeans are subject to the risk of cancellation later prior to actual shipment – especially with the possibility of large supplies of exportable South American soybeans eventually to become available in spring 2016.   Adding together 831.2 mb in actual past shipments plus 460.4 mb in forward sales amounts to 1,291.6 mb, or 75.3% of the USDA’s 1.715 bb U.S. soybean export target for “new crop” MY 2015/16 in the December 9th USDA WASDE report, with 29.8% (15.5/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   That said, the expected increased exportable supplies from the 2016 South American soybean harvest during spring and early summer of next year will continue to provide competition for U.S. soybean exports through the remainder of the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year (i.e., through August 31, 2016) and beyond.  

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 92 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 97 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down from 97 mb in MY 2013/14, but up marginally from 89 mb in MY 2012/13, and 90 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 7).  

Residual Use: Forecast residual use of 41 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 48 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 10 mb in MY 2013/14, and 16 mb in MY 2012/13.   

Total U.S. Soybean Use: Projected U.S. total use of 3.738 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is unchanged from November, but up 53 mb from the October WASDE report, and would be the 2nd highest on record, behind the current record high of 3.861 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 7).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total U.S. soybean use has been 3.081 bb in MY 2006/07, 3.056 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.047 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.363 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.282 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.159 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.111 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.478 bb in MY 2013/14, the current record high of 3.861 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and the projected amount of 3.738 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.   

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are 465 mb – unchanged from November, but up 40 mb from the October WASDE report.  Projected “new crop” MY 2015/16 ending stocks of 465 mb would be the largest amount since 449 mb in MY 2005/06, and 574 mb in MY 2006/07, and compares to 205 mb in MY 2007/08, 138 mb in MY 2008/09, 151 in MY 2009/10, 215 mb in MY 2010/11, 169 mb in MY 2011/12, 141 mb in MY 2012/13, the record low since at least MY 1980/81 of mb 92 in MY 2013/14, and 191 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 7 and 8). 

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 12.44% is forecast for “new crop” MY 2015/16 – unchanged from November, but up from 11.53% in October, and 12.1% in September.  This projection of 12.44% stocks-to-use for “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 4.95% in “current” MY 2014/15, and up markedly from the record low of 2.65% for MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 8 and 9).  United States’ soybean % ending stocks-to-use have been 18.62% in MY 2006/07, 6.71% in MY 2007/08, 4.54% in MY 2008/09, 4.49% in MY 2009/10, 6.55% in MY 2010/11, 5.36% in MY 2011/12, 4.52% in MY 2012/13, the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14, the estimate of 4.95% for “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now 12.44% for “new crop” MY 2015/16.   

U.S. average soybean prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are forecast to be in the range of $8.15-$9.65 per bushel (midpoint = $8.90), down from $10.10 /bu in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 9).  United States’ soybean prices have been $6.43 per bushel in MY 2006/07, $10.10 in MY 2007/08, $9.97 in MY 2008/09, $9.59 in MY 2009/10, $11.30 in MY 2010/11, $12.50 in MY 2011/12, a record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13, $13.00 for MY 2013/14, $10.10 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with the midpoint projection of $8.90 /bu in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

I-F. KSU Soybean Market Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2015/16

Kansas State University Extension projections reflect the likelihood of three separate U.S. soybean yield, production, and market outcome scenarios for “new crop” MY 2015/16.  The supply-demand and price assumptions associated with these projected KSU soybean market scenarios for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are shown in Table 1, with planted and harvested acres represented in Figure 4, yields in Figure 5, total supplies in Figure 6, total use by category and ending stocks in Figure 7, and ending stocks-to-use and price outcomes in Figures 8 and 9.   Key details of each scenario are presented below.

KSU Scenario #1 is developed on the assumptions of the USDA December 9th WASDE report, using the USDA’s supply-demand figures, but with a lower price of $8.75 /bu – down $0.15 from the USDA forecast.  This “USDA S/D – Lower Price” scenario is given a 70% probability of occurring in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

KSU Scenario #1: “USDA Soybean Supply/Demand & Lower U.S. Soybean Prices                                      U.S. Ending Stocks/Use = 12.44%; $8.75 /bu. price                        Probability of Occurring ð 70%

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres              = 83.205 ma                        Down 71,000 acres vs 83.276 ma in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres        = 82.429 ma                        Down 162,000 acres vs 82.591 ma in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield             = 48.3 bu/ac.                      Up 0.8 bu/ac. vs 47.5 bu/ac in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Crop             = 3.981 bb                           Up 54 million bu vs 3.927 bb in 2014

- Total Supplies                                 = 4.203 bb                           Up 151 mb vs 4.052 bb in MY 2014/15

- Domestic Crushings                      = 1.890 bb                           Up 17 mb vs 1.873 bb in MY 2014/15

- Exports                                              = 1.715 bb                           Down 128 mb vs 1.843 bb in MY 2014/15

- Total Use                                          = 3.738 bb                           Down 123 mb vs 3.861 bb in MY 2014/15

- Ending Stocks                                 = 0.465 bb                           Up 274 mb vs 191 mb in MY 2014/15                                                                                                                    

- % Ending Stocks/Use                   = 12.44% S/U                     vs 4.95% S/U in MY 2014/15

- U.S. Soybean Price                       = $8.75 /bu.                        Down $1.35 vs $10.10 /bu in MY 2014/15

KSU Scenario #2 assumes the same U.S. planted and harvested acreage as the USDA, but a moderately lower 2015 U.S. soybean yield of 47.5 bu/ac, resulting in 2016 U.S. soybean production of 3.915 bb – down 66 mb from the USDA projection.  After moderate downward adjustments in domestic crush, exports, total use, ending stocks and percent ending stocks-to-use from the USDA’s forecast, projected U.S. soybean prices for “new crop” MY 2016/17 soybeans are raised to $9.10 /bu (compared to $8.90 /bu by the USDA.  This “lower yield-adjusted supply-demand” scenario is given a 25% probability of occurring in “new crop” MY 2015/16.

KSU Scenario #2: “Lower U.S. Soybean Yields & Adjusted Supply/Demand Balances 

U.S. Ending Stocks/Use = 11.48%; $9.10 /bu. price            Probability of Occurring ð 25%

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres              = 83.205 ma                        Down 71,000 acres vs 83.276 ma in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres        = 82.429 ma                        Down 162,000 acres vs 82.591 ma in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield             = 47.5 bu/ac.                      No change vs 47.5 bu/ac in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Crop             = 3.915 bb                           Down 14 million bu vs 3.927 bb in 2014

- Total Supplies                                 = 4.136 bb                           Up 84 mb vs 4.052 bb in MY 2014/15

- Domestic Crushings                      = 1.880 bb                           Up 7 mb vs 1.873 bb in MY 2014/15

- Exports                                              = 1.700 bb                           Down 143 mb vs 1.843 bb in MY 2014/15

- Total Use                                          = 3.710 bb                           Down 151 mb vs 3.861 bb in MY 2014/15

- Ending Stocks                                 = 0.426 bb                           Up 235 mb vs 191 mb in MY 2014/15                                                                                                                     

- % Ending Stocks/Use                   = 11.48% S/U                     vs 4.95% S/U in MY 2014/15

- U.S. Soybean Price                       = $9.10 /bu.                        Down $1.00 vs $10.10 /bu in MY 2014/15

KSU Scenario #3 assumes the same U.S. soybean acreage, production, and total supplies as the USDA for “new crop” MY 2015/16, and identical amounts of usage by category except for higher U.S. soybean exports – 1.825 bb rather than 1.715 bb as forecast by the USDA.  Consequently, ending stocks (358 mb) and percent ending stocks-to-use (9.31%) are decreased, bringing about a moderate increase in U.S. soybean prices – raised up to $9.50 /bu compared to the USDA’s current forecast of $8.90 /bu..   This “higher exports” scenario is given a 5% probability of occurring in “new crop” MY 2015/16.

KSU Scenario #3: “Higher U.S. Soybean Exports

U.S. Ending Stocks/Use = 9.31%; $9.50 /bu. price              Probability of Occurring ð 5%

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres              = 83.205 ma                        Down 71,000 acres vs 83.276 ma in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres        = 82.429 ma                        Down 162,000 acres vs 82.591 ma in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield             = 48.3 bu/ac.                      Up 0.8 bu/ac. vs 47.5 bu/ac in 2014

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Crop             = 3.981 bb                           Up 54 million bu vs 3.927 bb in 2014

- Total Supplies                                 = 4.203 bb                           Up 151 mb vs 4.052 bb in MY 2014/15

- Domestic Crushings                      = 1.890 bb                           Up 17 mb vs 1.873 bb in MY 2014/15

- Exports                                              = 1.825 bb                           Down 18 mb vs 1.843 bb in MY 2014/15

- Total Use                                          = 3.845 bb                           Down 16 mb vs 3.861 bb in MY 2014/15

- Ending Stocks                                 = 0.358 bb                           Up 167 mb vs 191 mb in MY 2014/15                                                                                                                    

- % Ending Stocks/Use                   = 9.31% S/U                        vs 4.95% S/U in MY 2014/15

- U.S. Soybean Price                       = $9.50 /bu.                        Down $0.60 vs $10.10 /bu in MY 2014/15

 

I-G. USDA Soybean Market Scenarios for “Next Year’s Crop” MY 2016/17

The USDA recently released supply-demand tables associated with it’s Long-Term Agricultural Projections through Year 2025 – often referred to as their “baseline projections” for U.S. agricultural product supply-demand and prices for the coming decade (http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm).  These baseline projections include their initial forecasts for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year for U.S. soybeans (beginning September 1, 2016 and lasting through August 31, 2017).  

For “next crop” MY 2016/17, the USDA projects another “normal-to-large crop” U.S. soybean supply-demand and price scenario, with details as follows (Table 1 and Figures 4 through 9).  Overall, the USDA projects slightly lower ending stocks (421 mb) and percent ending stocks-to-use (10.9%) in “next crop” MY 2016/17 than in the current marketing year, i.e., “new crop” MY 2015/16, along with markedly lower U.S. soybean prices ($8.65 /bu).

USDA U.S. Soybean Baseline Scenario for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17

Key Forecast Variable Þ 3.785 billion bushel U.S. Soybean Crop in 2016

ò 1.205 million acres planted & 46.7 bu/ac yields

- 2016 U.S. Planted Acres       = 82.000 million acres                        vs 83.205 ma in 2015 (down 1.205 ma)

- 2016 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 81.100 million acres                        vs 82.429 ma in 2015 (down 1.329 ma)

- 2016 U.S. Soybean Yield       = 46.7 bushels/acre                vs 48.3 bu/ac in 2015 (down 1.6 bu/ac)

- 2016 U.S. Soybean Crop     = 3.785 billion bushels (bb)   vs 3.981 bb in 2015 (down 196 mb)

- Total Supplies                      = 4.280 bb                               vs 4.203 bb in MY 2015/16 (dn 77 mb)

- Domestic Crushings              = 1.910 bb                               vs 1.890 bb in MY 2015/16 (dn 20 mb)

- Seed Use                               =      92 mb                              vs 92 mb in MY 2015/16 (no change)

- Exports                                  = 1.825 bb                               vs 1.715 bb in MY 2015/16 (up 110 mb)

- Residual Use                         =       32 mb                             vs 41 mb in MY 2015/16 (down 9 mb)

- Total Use                              = 3.859 bb                               vs 3.738 bb in MY 2015/16 (up 121 mb)

- Ending Stocks                      =    421 mb                              vs 465 mb in MY 2015/16 (down 44 mb)                                                                                                                     

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 10.91% S/U                           vs 12.44% S/U in MY 2015/16 (down 1.5%)

- U.S. Soybean Price              = $8.65 per bushel                 vs $8.90 /bu in MY 2015/16 (ò$0.25 /bu)

 

II. World Soybean Supply-Demand Trends

Based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates from PSD Online – standing for “Production, Supply, and Distribution Online” as of December 14, 2015 (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx), and the USDA December 9th WASDE report, the USDA is forecasting that World soybean production is projected to increase marginally (up 0.3%) in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year from MY 2014/15, and to be up 13.1% over MY 2013/14. 

World soybean total supplies in “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 397.8 mmt are up 4.2% from 381.57 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 17.2% from 339.3 mmt in MY 2013/14.  World soybean total use is also projected to increase by 4.2% in “new crop” MY 2015/16 over “old crop” MY 2014/15, and by 13.3% over MY 2013/14.

Since early 2013 U.S. soybean markets have been driven by several key factors, including a) record large 2013 and 2014 South American soybean crops and total supplies – albeit with logistical shipping problems in Brazilian ports in mid-2013, b) a historically large 2013 U.S. soybean crop – followed in 2014 by an even larger record high U.S. soybean crop, and c) ongoing strength of World soybean and soybean product import demand from China and other countries – particularly at lower soybean market prices. 

With another record large U.S. soybean crop projected for 2015, and another record or near record large “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year soybean crop projected for South America to be harvested in the first half of 2016, it is likely that World supplies will either grow further or remain unchanged relative to demand in the next fifteen (15) months.  It is projected by the USDA that World soybean prices will fall to their lowest levels in several years during “new crop” MY 2015/16 and “next crop” MY 2016/17 – absent any unanticipated market surprises such as major drought, financial system upheaval, or other World soybean trade disruption.

II-A. World Soybean Production by Country / Region

Projected World soybean production of 320.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be a record high, being up 0.3% from 319.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 13.1% from 283.1 in MY 2013/14, 268.8 mmt in MY 2012/13; the recent low of 240.4 mmt in MY 2011/12, and the range of 212.1-264.35 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean production is projected to be 211.75 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015.16, down 0.2% from 212.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 10.4% from 191.7 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major soybean producing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “old crop” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States (up 1.5 mmt), Brazil (up 3.8 mmt), Paraguay (up 0.7 mmt), and the European Union (up 0.24 mmt).  Decreases are projected for Argentina (down 4.4 mmt), and China (down 0.85 mmt).  Marginal or no changes are projected for Japan (down 0.01 mmt) and Mexico (no change).  

In “new crop” MY 2015/16, the United States (108.35 mmt) is projected to be the largest World producer of soybeans, followed by Brazil (100.0 mmt), Argentina (57.0 mmt), China (11.5 mmt), Paraguay (8.8 mmt), and the European Union (2.05 mmt), Mexico (0.36 mmt), and Japan (0.22 mmt).

II-B. World Soybean Exports by Country / Region

Global soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be a record high 129.6 mmt, up 2.9% from 126.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 14.9% from 112.8 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 3 and Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean exports are projected to be 82.95 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 9.4% from 75.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 21.6% from 68.2 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major soybean exporting countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “old crop” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for Argentina (up 0.7 mmt), Brazil (up 6.4 mmt), and Paraguay (up 0.2 mmt); with a decrease projected for the United States (down 3.5 mmt); and small changes projected for China (up 0.06 mmt) and the European Union (down 0.02 mmt).   

The largest projected exporter of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is Brazil (57.0 mmt), the United States (46.7 mmt), Argentina (11.25 mmt), Paraguay (4.6 mmt), China (0.2 mmt), and the European Union (0.1 mmt).

II-C. World Soybean Imports by Country / Region

Global soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 126.8 mmt, up 4.0% from 121.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 13.5% from 111.7 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean imports are projected to be 125.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 4.1% from 121.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 14.7% from 109.8 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major soybean importing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “old crop” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for China (up 2.15 mmt), the European Union (up 0.5 mmt), and Mexico (up 0.2 mmt).  Marginal-to-no change in imports projected for the United States (down 0.08 mmt), Argentina, Brazil (down 0.01 mmt), Paraguay, and Japan (down 0.1 mmt).  

China is projected to be the largest World soybean importer, with “new crop” MY 2015/16 soybean imports increasing to 80.5 mmt.  China is followed by the European Union (13.7 mmt), Mexico (4.05 mmt), Japan (2.9 mmt), the United States (0.8 mmt), Brazil (0.3 mmt), and Paraguay (0.01 mmt). 

II-D. World Soybean Domestic Crush by Country / Region

Global soybean domestic crush in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be a 273.7 mmt, up 4.3% from 262.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 13.5% from 241.3 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean domestic crush is projected to be 222.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 5.1% from 211.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 14.5% from 194.1 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “old crop” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Sizable year-over-year increases in domestic soybean crush usage in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States (up 0.5 mmt),  Argentina (up 1.8 mmt), Paraguay (up 0.45 mmt), China (up 5.75 mmt), the European Union (up 0.7 mmt), and Mexico (up 0.2 mmt).  A smaller increase is forecast for Brazil (up 0.07 mmt), with a decrease projected for Japan (down 0.13 mmt). 

China (80.25 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans for domestic crushing in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by the United States (51.4 mmt), Argentina (42.0 mmt), Brazil (40.0 mmt), the European Union (14.8 mmt), Mexico (4.35 mmt), Paraguay (4.1 mmt), and Japan (2.0 mmt).  

II-E. World Soybean Food, Seed & Residual (FSR) Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean food, seed, and residual (FSR) use of 38.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is a record high, up 3.0% from 37.5 mmt for “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 12.0% from 34.45 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 6).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean FSR use is projected to be 35.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 4.3% from 33.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 10.9% from 31.5 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of soybean FSR use in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “old crop” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  A year-over-year increase in soybean FSR use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected China (up 0.75 mmt).  A decrease is forecast for the United States (down 0.3 mmt), with marginal or no change projected for Argentina (up 0.06 mmt), Brazil (up 0.05 mmt), Paraguay (no change), the European Union (up 0.03 mmt), Japan (down 0.01 mmt), and Mexico (up 0.01 mmt). 

China (12.95 mmt – up from 12.2 mmt from “old crop” MY 2014/15 and 11.75 mmt in MY 2013/14) is projected to be the largest World FSR user of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by the United States (3.62 mmt), Argentina (5.05 mmt), Brazil (3.1 mmt), the European Union (0.9 mmt), Japan (1.1 mmt), Paraguay (0.1 mmt), and Mexico (0.04 mmt),. 

II-F. World Soybean Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean total use of 312.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is a record high, up 4.2% from the previous record of 299.9 mmt for “old crop” MY 2014/15, up 13.3% from 275.7 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up from the range of 221.8-261.7 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2012/13 period (Table 7 and Figure 10).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean total use is projected to be 257.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 5.0% from 244.95 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 14.0% from 225.6 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of soybean total use in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “old crop” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean total use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected for the United States (up 0.15 mmt), Argentina (up 1.8 mmt), Brazil (up 0.1 mmt), Paraguay (up 0.45 mmt), China (up 6.5 mmt), the European Union (up 0.7 mmt), and Mexico (up 0.2 mmt).  A decrease is forecast for Japan (down 0.14 mmt).

  China (93.2 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by the United States (55.1 mmt), Argentina (47.05 mmt), Brazil (43.1 mmt), the European Union (15.7 mmt), Mexico (4.4 mmt), Paraguay (4.2 mmt), and Japan (3.1 mmt). 

II-G. World Soybean Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World soybean ending stocks of 82.6 mmt for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 6.3% from 77.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 32.0% from 62.8 mmt in MY 2013/14, and above the range of 43.2-70.8 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2012/13 period (Table 8 and Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks are projected to be 69.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, down 3.5% from 72.45 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 16.4% from 60.1 mmt in MY 2013/14.

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean ending stocks in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “old crop” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States (up 7.4 mmt), and Brazil (up 0.2 mmt).  Decreases are forecast for Argentina (down 1.3 mmt), and China (down 1.4 mmt).  Marginal or no changes are forecast for Paraguay, the European Union (down 0.02 mmt), Japan (up 0.02 mmt), and Mexico (up 0.02 mmt). 

Argentina (30.4 mmt) is projected to be the World’s largest holder of soybean ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by Brazil (19.1 mmt), China (16.6 mmt), the United States (12.65 mmt), the European Union (0.43 mmt), Japan (0.24 mmt), Mexico (0.1 mmt), and Paraguay (0.06 mmt). 

II-H. World Soybean % Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Forecast World soybean percent ending stocks-to-use of 26.4% in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 25.9% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 22.7% in MY 2013/14, and is within the range of 19.5% to 28.2% during the MY 2007/08-2012/13 period (Table 9).  The minimum levels of World soybean % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1960s occurred in MY 1976/77 (6.9% S/U), MY 1996/97 (11.8% S/U), and MY 1978/79 (12.6% S/U).  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 19.5% in MY 2008/09 is the lowest since 19.3% in MY 2001/02.  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 20.6% in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up from 22.6% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 20.4% in MY 2013/14.

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “new crop” 2015/16 and MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean percent ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States (up 7.5%), Japan (up 1.0%), and Mexico (up 0.4%).  Decreases are projected for Argentina (down 4.7%), Brazil (down 1.1%), Paraguay (down 0.1%), China (down 3.0%), and the European Union (down 0.3%). 

Argentina (52.1% S/U) is projected to be the largest World holder of soybeans in terms of ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by Brazil (19.0%), China (17.8%), the United States (12.4%), Japan (7.7%), the European Union (2.7%), Mexico (2.3%), and Paraguay (0.7%). 

II-H. Relationship Between World % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. soybean ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average soybean prices (see Figure 9), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. soybean season average cash prices and World soybean % ending stocks-to-use.  However, there appear to be two separate supply-demand relationship regimes represented in this graphic, the lower price regime that occurred during the MY 1973/74 – 2005/06 period, and the higher price regime occurring starting in MY 2006/07 and continuing through the present time (Figure 11).  The later period (since MY 2006/07) coincides with the sharp growth in Chinese soybean import demand in World soybean markets.   

Since MY 2006/07 in particular, larger World soybean supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World soybean prices.  Conversely smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher soybean prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 9 earlier, U.S. soybean prices in Figure 11 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Since MY 2006/07, the minimum World soybean percent stocks-to-use was 19.5% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 2008/09.  “New crop” projections are for World soybean percent stocks-to-use to be 26.4% in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

****************************

Table 1. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2009/10 through “Next Crop” MY 2016/17

  (December 9 and 14, 2015 USDA Reports, and KSU Projections for the “New Crop” 2015/16 marketing year)

Item

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

 

2013/14

2014/15

USDA 2015/16

KSU

USDA S/D Lower $

2015/16

KSU

Low Yields

Adj. S/D

2015/16

KSU

Higher Exports 2015/16

USDA

Baseline Forecast 2016/17

Percent Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

70% KSU

25% KSU

5% KSU

 

Planted Area (million acres)

77.451

77.404

75.046

77.198

76.840

83.276

83.205

83.205

ò0.071 ma

83.205

ò0.071 ma

83.205

ò0.071 ma

82.000

Harvested Area (million acres)

76.372

76.610

73.776

76.144

76.253

82.591

82.429

82.429

ò0.162 ma

82.429

ò0.162 ma

82.429

ò0.162 ma

81.100

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.6%

99.0%

98.3%

98.6%

99.2%

99.2 %

99.1%

99.1%

99.1%

99.1%

98.9%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

44.0

43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5

48.3

48.3

  47.5

 48.3

 46.7

 

 

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks

138

151

215

169

141

92

191

191

191

191

465

Production

3,361

3,331

3,097

3,042

3,358

3,927

3,981

3,981

3,915

3,981

3,785

Imports

15

15

16

41

72

33

30

30

30

30

30

Total Supply

3,514

3,497

3,328

3,252

3,570

4,052

4,203

4,203

4,136

4,203

4,280

 

 

 

Domestic Crushings

1,752

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,734

1,873

 1,890

 1,890

1,880

1,890

1,910

Exports

1,499

1,505

1,365

1,317

1,638

1,843

1,715

1,715

1,700

1,825

1,825

Seed

90

87

90

89

97

97

92

92

92

92

92

Residual

22

42

1

16

10

48

41

38

38

38

32

Total Use

3,363

3,282

3,159

3,111

3,478

3,861

3,738

3,738

3,710

3,845

3,859

 

 

 

Ending Stocks

151

215

169

141

92

191

465

465

426

358

421

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.49%

6.55%

5.36%

4.53%

2.65%

4.95%

12.44%

12.44%

11.48%

9.31%

10.91%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$9.59

 

$11.30

$12.50

$14.40

$13.00

$10.10

$8.15-$9.65

($8.90)

$8.75

$9.10

 

$9.50

 

$8.65

 

Figure 4. U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage (2004-2016) as of December 9 and 14, 2015

 

Figure 5. U.S. Soybean Yields (1973-2016) as of December 9 and 14, 2015

 

Figure 6. U.S. Soybean Total Supplies since MY 2004/05 as of December 9 and 14, 2015

 

Figure 7. U.S. Soybean Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17                       
as of December 9 and 14, 2015

 

Figure 8. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 – “Next Crop” 2016/17 
as of December 9 and 14, 2015 USDA reports with KSU Projections for “new crop” MY 2015/16

 

Figure 9. U.S. Soybean Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “Next Crop” MY 2016/17)     
as of December 9 and 14, 2015 USDA reports

 

Figure 10. World Soybean Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “New Crop” MY 2015/16                     
(December 9, 2015 USDA WASDE Report)

  

Figure 11. U.S. Soybean Price vs World % Stocks-to-Use
(MY 1973/74 through Implied “Next Crop” MY 2016/17) as of December 9 and 14, 2015 USDA reports

Table 2. World Soybean Production Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Production: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Soybean Production: November 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Production:               December Less November                

New Crop 2015/16 Production:                Percent (%)         December 2015 of November 2015

December  Soybean Production: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

November Soybean Production: Old crop Crop 2014/15

December Less November Soybean  Production             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Production             Less Old crop 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Production of                         Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean Production: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Production             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Production       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

320.11

321.02

(0.91)

99.7%

319.00

318.68

0.32

1.11

100.3%

283.12

36.99

113.1%

United States

108.35

108.35

0.00

100.0%

106.88

106.88

0.00

1.47

101.4%

91.39

16.96

118.6%

Total Foreign

211.75

212.66

(0.91)

99.6%

212.12

211.80

0.32

(0.37)

99.8%

191.73

20.02

110.4%

Major Exporters

168.91

168.91

0.00

100.0%

168.81

168.21

0.60

0.10

100.1%

151.69

17.22

111.4%

Argentina

57.00

57.00

0.00

100.0%

61.40

60.80

0.60

(4.40)

92.8%

53.50

3.50

106.5%

Brazil

100.00

100.00

0.00

100.0%

96.20

96.20

0.00

3.80

104.0%

86.70

13.30

115.3%

Paraguay

8.80

8.80

0.00

100.0%

8.10

8.10

0.00

0.70

108.6%

8.19

0.61

107.4%

Major Importers

14.98

14.96

0.02

100.1%

15.60

15.57

0.03

(0.62)

96.0%

14.73

0.25

101.7%

China

11.50

11.50

0.00

100.0%

12.35

12.35

0.00

(0.85)

93.1%

12.20

(0.70)

94.3%

World less China

308.61

309.52

(0.91)

99.7%

306.65

306.33

0.32

1.96

100.6%

270.92

37.69

113.9%

% China of World

3.6%

3.6%

0.0%

100.3%

3.9%

3.9%

0.0%

-0.3%

92.8%

4.3%

-0.7%

83.4%

European Union - 28

2.05

2.05

0.00

100.0%

1.81

1.81

0.00

0.24

113.3%

1.21

0.84

169.4%

Japan

0.22

0.22

0.00

100.0%

0.23

0.23

0.00

(0.01)

95.7%

0.20

0.02

110.0%

Mexico

0.36

0.36

0.00

100.0%

0.36

0.36

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.24

0.12

150.0%

Table 3. World Soybean Export Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Exports: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Soybean Exports: November 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Exports:               December Less November          

New Crop 2015/16 Exports:                Percent (%)         December 2015 of November 2015

December Soybean Exports: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

November Soybean Exports: Old crop Crop 2014/15

December Less November Soybean  Exports             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Exports Less Old crop 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Exports of Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean Exports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Exports             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Exports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

129.62

129.08

0.54

100.4%

125.96

126.62

(0.66)

3.66

102.9%

112.77

16.85

114.9%

United States

46.68

46.68

0.00

100.0%

50.17

50.17

0.00

(3.49)

93.0%

44.57

2.11

104.7%

Total Foreign

82.95

82.40

0.55

100.7%

75.79

76.45

(0.66)

7.16

109.4%

68.20

14.75

121.6%

Major Exporters

75.70

75.20

0.50

100.7%

68.41

68.91

(0.50)

7.29

110.7%

62.67

13.03

120.8%

Argentina

11.25

10.75

0.50

104.7%

10.57

10.57

0.00

0.68

106.4%

7.84

3.41

143.5%

Brazil

57.00

57.00

0.00

100.0%

50.61

51.11

(0.50)

6.39

112.6%

46.83

10.17

121.7%

Paraguay

4.60

4.60

0.00

100.0%

4.38

4.38

0.00

0.22

105.0%

4.80

(0.20)

95.8%

Major Importers

0.33

0.33

0.00

100.0%

0.29

0.30

(0.01)

0.04

113.8%

0.34

(0.01)

97.1%

China

0.20

0.20

0.00

100.0%

0.14

0.14

0.00

0.06

142.9%

0.22

(0.02)

90.9%

World less China

129.42

128.88

0.54

100.4%

125.82

126.48

(0.66)

3.60

102.9%

112.55

16.87

115.0%

% China of World

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

99.6%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

138.8%

0.2%

0.0%

79.1%

European Union - 28

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.12

0.12

0.00

(0.02)

83.3%

0.06

0.04

166.7%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Table 4. World Soybean Import Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Imports: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Soybean Imports: November 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Imports:               December Less November              

New Crop 2015/16 Imports:                Percent (%)         December 2015 of November 2015

December Soybean Imports: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

November Soybean Imports: Old crop Crop 2014/15

December Less November Soybean  Imports             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Imports             Less Old crop 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Imports of Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean Imports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Imports             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Imports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

126.76

125.67

1.09

100.9%

121.90

122.08

(0.18)

4.86

104.0%

111.73

15.03

113.5%

United States

0.82

0.82

0.00

100.0%

0.90

0.90

0.00

(0.08)

91.1%

1.95

(1.13)

42.1%

Total Foreign

125.94

124.85

1.09

100.9%

121.00

121.18

(0.18)

4.94

104.1%

109.78

16.16

114.7%

Major Exporters

0.32

0.32

0.00

100.0%

0.33

0.33

0.00

(0.01)

97.0%

0.63

(0.31)

50.8%

Argentina

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.30

0.30

0.00

100.0%

0.31

0.31

0.00

(0.01)

96.8%

0.61

(0.31)

49.2%

Paraguay

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

Major Importers

108.15

108.10

0.05

100.0%

105.01

105.60

(0.59)

3.14

103.0%

96.52

11.63

112.0%

China

80.50

80.50

0.00

100.0%

78.35

78.35

0.00

2.15

102.7%

70.36

10.14

114.4%

World less China

46.26

45.17

1.09

102.4%

43.55

43.73

(0.18)

2.71

106.2%

41.37

4.89

111.8%

% China of World

63.5%

64.1%

-0.6%

99.1%

64.3%

64.2%

0.1%

-0.8%

98.8%

63.0%

0.5%

100.8%

European Union - 28

13.70

13.70

0.00

100.0%

13.16

13.55

(0.39)

0.54

104.1%

13.29

0.41

103.1%

Japan

2.90

2.90

0.00

100.0%

3.00

2.95

0.05

(0.10)

96.7%

2.89

0.01

100.3%

Mexico

4.05

4.05

0.00

100.0%

3.82

4.03

(0.21)

0.23

106.0%

3.84

0.21

105.5%

Table 5. World Soybean Crush Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean Crush                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Crush: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Soybean Crush: November 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Crush:               December Less November                

New Crop 2015/16 Crush:                Percent (%)         December 2015 of November 2015

December Soybean Crush: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

November Soybean Crush: Old crop Crop 2014/15

December Less November Soybean  Crush for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Crush             Less Old crop 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Crush of Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean Crush: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Crush             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Crush       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

273.73

273.36

0.37

100.1%

262.38

261.50

0.88

11.35

104.3%

241.27

32.46

113.5%

United States

51.44

51.44

0.00

100.0%

50.98

50.98

0.00

0.46

100.9%

47.19

4.25

109.0%

Total Foreign

222.29

221.93

0.36

100.2%

211.41

210.52

0.89

10.88

105.1%

194.08

28.21

114.5%

Major Exporters

86.30

86.30

0.00

100.0%

84.01

83.94

0.07

2.29

102.7%

76.47

9.83

112.9%

Argentina

42.00

42.00

0.00

100.0%

40.23

40.19

0.04

1.77

104.4%

36.17

5.83

116.1%

Brazil

40.00

40.00

0.00

100.0%

39.93

39.90

0.03

0.07

100.2%

36.86

3.14

108.5%

Paraguay

4.10

4.10

0.00

100.0%

3.65

3.65

0.00

0.45

112.3%

3.35

0.75

122.4%

Major Importers

105.24

105.19

0.05

100.0%

98.53

98.57

(0.04)

6.71

106.8%

91.39

13.85

115.2%

China

80.25

80.25

0.00

100.0%

74.50

74.50

0.00

5.75

107.7%

68.85

11.40

116.6%

World less China

193.48

193.11

0.37

100.2%

187.88

187.00

0.88

5.60

103.0%

172.42

21.06

112.2%

% China of World

29.3%

29.4%

0.0%

99.9%

28.4%

28.5%

-0.1%

0.9%

103.3%

28.5%

0.8%

102.7%

European Union - 28

14.80

14.80

0.00

100.0%

14.10

14.10

0.00

0.70

105.0%

13.44

1.36

110.1%

Japan

2.02

2.02

0.00

100.0%

2.15

2.12

0.03

(0.13)

94.0%

1.97

0.05

102.5%

Mexico

4.35

4.35

0.00

100.0%

4.18

4.28

(0.10)

0.17

104.1%

4.03

0.32

107.9%

Table 6. World Soybean Food, Seed, and Residual (FSR) Use Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean End Stocks                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean FSR: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Soybean FSR: November 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 FSR:               December Less November                  

New Crop 2015/16 FSR: Percent (%) December 2015 of November 2015

December Soybean FSR: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

November Soybean FSR: Old crop Crop 2014/15

December Less November Soybean  FSR             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 FSR Less Old crop 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 FSR of                         Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean FSR: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 FSR Less                     2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 FSR of                         2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

38.59

38.97

(0.38)

99.0%

37.48

37.74

(0.26)

1.11

103.0%

34.45

4.14

112.0%

United States

3.62

3.62

0.00

100.0%

3.93

3.93

0.00

(0.31)

92.1%

2.90

0.72

124.8%

Total Foreign

34.97

35.34

(0.37)

99.0%

33.54

33.82

(0.28)

1.43

104.3%

31.54

3.43

110.9%

Major Exporters

8.33

8.33

0.00

100.0%

8.21

8.21

(0.00)

0.12

101.5%

7.56

0.77

110.2%

Argentina

5.05

5.05

0.00

100.0%

4.99

4.99

0.00

0.06

101.2%

4.40

0.65

114.8%

Brazil

3.10

3.10

0.00

100.0%

3.05

3.05

(0.00)

0.05

101.6%

3.00

0.10

103.3%

Paraguay

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.10

0.10

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.10

0.00

100.0%

Major Importers

19.00

19.00

0.00

100.0%

18.05

18.07

(0.02)

0.95

105.3%

17.38

1.62

109.3%

China

12.95

12.95

0.00

100.0%

12.20

12.20

0.00

0.75

106.1%

11.75

1.20

110.2%

World less China

25.64

26.02

(0.38)

98.5%

25.28

25.54

(0.26)

0.36

101.4%

22.70

2.94

113.0%

% China of World

33.6%

33.2%

0.3%

101.0%

32.6%

32.3%

0.2%

1.0%

103.1%

34.1%

-0.5%

98.4%

European Union - 28

0.87

0.87

0.00

100.0%

0.84

0.84

0.00

0.03

103.6%

0.78

0.09

111.5%

Japan

1.08

1.08

0.00

100.0%

1.09

1.07

0.02

(0.01)

99.1%

1.08

0.00

100.0%

Mexico

0.04

0.04

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.04

(0.01)

0.01

133.3%

0.04

0.00

100.0%

Table 7. World Soybean Total Use Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Old Crop” 2014/15, & 2013/14 Marketing Years

World Soybean Total Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Total Use: New Crop 2015/16     December 2015

Soybean Total Use: November 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Total Use:               December Less November             

New Crop 2015/16 Total Use:  Percent (%)         December 2015 of November 2015

December Soybean Total Use: Old crop Crop 2014/15          

November Soybean Total Use: Old crop Crop 2014/15

December Less November Soybean  Total Use             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Total Use Less Old crop 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Total Use of Old crop Crop 2014/15

Soybean Total Use: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Total Use             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Total Use of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

312.32

312.33

(0.01)

100.0%

299.86

299.24

0.62

12.46

104.2%

275.72

36.60

113.3%

United States

55.06

55.06

0.00

100.0%

54.91

54.91

0.00

0.15

100.3%

50.09

4.97

109.9%

Total Foreign

257.26

257.27

(0.01)

100.0%

244.95

244.34

0.61

12.31

105.0%

225.62

31.64

114.0%

Major Exporters

94.63

94.63

0.00

100.0%

92.22

92.15

0.07

2.41

102.6%

84.03

10.60

112.6%