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Soybean Market Outlook in July 2014

July 18, 2014


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, July 11, 2014, U.S. soybean market prices have responded negatively – moving sharply lower on the day of the report, then recovering and moving in a volatile, generally sideways-to-lower trading range through July 18th.  Until the end of June, U.S. soybean prices in 2014 had been supported by continued Chinese demand and uncertainty about 2014 crop production prospects in the United States.  However, both old and new crop soybean market prices have moved sharply lower in anticipation of burdensome market supplies in Fall 2014.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast for “Old Crop” MY 2013/14: Adjustments were also made to several “current” 2013/14 marketing year usage categories, including projected imports (85 million bushels or ‘mb’), domestic crushings (1.725 billion bushels or ‘bb’ – up mb), exports (1.620 bb – up 20 mb), residual (-69 mb, down from 0 mb), ending stocks (140 mb – up 15 mb), ending stocks-to-use (4.14% - up from 3.68%), and average price ($13.00 – down $0.10 per bu).  The negative soybean residual figure raises questions about potential adjustments to supply or use categories in the 2013/14 U.S. soybean balance sheet in future WASDE reports.  

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: In these reports, forecasts of U.S. 2014 planted (84.839 million acres or ‘ma’) and harvested (84.058 ma) acres from the June 30th USDA Acreage report were used along with internal projections of 2014 soybean yields and production – figures that are still uncertain and subject to change in upcoming USDA reports.  U.S. soybean production in 2014 was forecast to be a record high 3.800 bb – up 511 mb from a year earlier.  Domestic crush was projected to be 1.755 bb – up 40 mb from the June WASDE, while exports were forecast to be 1.620 bb, up 55 mb from a year ago.  Forecast “new crop” 2014/15 ending stocks were also raised to 415 mb (up 90 mb from June, and up 275 mb from a year ago), while ending stocks-to-use were projected to be 11.7% (up from 9.4% in June, and from 4.14% in MY 2013/14).  The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 average prices will be $9.50-$11.50 with a midpoint of $10.50 – down $0.25 /bu from June.  It is important to remember that the first actual survey-based projection of 2014 U.S. soybean production will be available in the August 12th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.

KSU U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are as follows:  a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 50% prob. of 84.839 ma planted ac., 84.058 ma harvested ac., 43.0 bu/ac yield, 3.614 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.774 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.720 bb crush, 1.625 bb exports, 3.456 bb total use, 318 mb ending stocks, 9.2% S/U, & $10.75 /bu;  b) “High Production” Scenario: 35% prob. of 85.058 ma planted ac., 84.983 ma harvested ac., trend yields of 44.3 bu/ac, 3.765 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.920 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.755 bb crush, 1.675 bb exports, 3.541 bb total use, 379 mb ending stocks, 10.7% S/U, & $10.00 /bu, and c) “Low Production” Scenario: 15% prob. of 83.906 ma planted, 83.133 ma harvested, lower yields of 39.0 bu/ac, 3.242 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.412 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.600 bb crush, 1.500 bb exports, 3.202 bb total use, 210 mb ending stocks, 6.6% S/U, & $11.75 /bu. 

World Soybean Supply-Demand: World production of 304.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up from 283.9 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and from 268.0 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Projected World soybean ending stocks of 85.3 mmt (30.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 67.2 mmt (24.9% S/U) in “current” MY 2013/14, and up from 56.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  Combined “new crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt – unchanged) is projected to be up 3.5 mmt.  That said, with a large 2014 U.S. soybean crop harvest anticipated to be available in World grain export markets in Fall 2014 through late winter-spring 2015, and larger South American carryover stocks expected from “old crop” MY 2013/14, it is anticipated that World soybean production and supplies will be larger and prices sharply lower in “new crop” MY 2014/15 than a year ago.  


I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook

IA. Comments on Soybean Market Prospects for 2014

There have been two successively larger record years of combined Brazil and Argentina soybean supplies, i.e., 131.3 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13, and 141.5 mmt for “current” MY 2013/14.  Now in the May, June and July WASDE reports the USDA has projected that combined soybean production for these two countries will be even higher in “new crop” MY 2014/15 – up to 145.0 mmt, which would be up 10.4% over the three year period.   This compares to U.S. soybean production of 82.6 mmt in MY 2012/13, 89.5 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and a projected amount of 103.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/14 – up 25.3% over the same three year period.   Also, the key market demand “driver” of Chinese soybean imports were estimated to be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13, and 69.0 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, and are projected to be 73.0 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 – up 21.9% over the same three marketing years.

It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels by the USDA is necessary for continuance of the historically high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year.  Rumors persist of slowing Chinese soybean import demand due to swine industry production problems or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors.  However, given the information available to the USDA at this time, the agency has projected a continuance of the strong growth trend in Chinese imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 in its May, June, and July WASDE reports – even raising the Chinese import forecast by 1 mmt in the July 11th WASDE report.  If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports were to falter for whatever reason, it could have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices. 

The timing and availability of the bulk of exportable South American soybean supplies are and will continue to be a key market factor during the summer and early fall of 2014.   At present there are far fewer reports of logistical problems occurring in South American ports than there were a year ago.   Both USDA and KSU price forecast scenarios for soybeans assume that there will be continued strength of soybean import demand from China and elsewhere – and that there will be an avoidance of South American grain export logistical problems of the same degree as occurred a year ago.  

In conclusion, U.S. soybean prices thus far in 2014 have been supported by continued Chinese demand for soybean imports and – until recent weeks – at least some uncertainty to date regarding 2014 crop production prospects in the United States.   Price weakness or at least “moderation” in soybean prices has happened in recent weeks, as new crop November 2014 soybean futures bids have fallen sharply since June 30th – declining from a trading range of $12.00 - $12.80 per bushel during the April 9th – June 27th period, down to the range of $10.65 - $11.30 during the July 7 – July 18 time frame. 

Absent late summer soybean production problems in the U.S. or other foreign soybean supply-demand factors providing support for the market, it is likely that the U.S. and World soybean market will be sideways-to-weaker at best from now through fall harvest, with the possibility of falling below $10.00 during the most intensive harvest periods.  However, ongoing World demand for soybeans and soybean products and the stimulative impact of lower prices on buyers, production uncertainty in South America through November-February, and uncertainty in World energy and economic markets may provide baseline-level support for soybean markets through the winter and early spring months.

I-B. July 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

On July 11, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its July 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply-demand and price projections for both the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY 2014/15. The “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.  The July 11th WASDE report made use of the information released in the June 30th National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports.  The July 11th WASDE report’s 2014 U.S. soybean production forecast was based on the projected planted and harvested acreage totals in the June 30th USDA NASS Acreage report, while information in the June 30th USDA NASS Quarterly Stocks report was used in calculating adjustments to “old crop” MY 2013/14 U.S. corn usage and ending stocks in the July 11th USDA WASDE report.

The upcoming August 12th USDA NASS Crop Production report will provide the first in-field survey based forecast of the 2014 U.S. soybean crop.  This 2014 production estimate will provide the basis for the August 11th WASDE report projection of U.S. soybean supply-demand and prices. 

I-C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the July 11th USDA Reports

The “old crop” or “current” AUGUST 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately positive manner to the information in the July 11th USDA reports.  On the day of the report – Friday, July 11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $12.32 ½ per bushel, and traded as high as $12.38 ¼ and as low as $11.59 ¼ during the session, before settling at $11.95 ¾ – down $0.37 for the day (Figure 1).   The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid-session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.   Since then AUGUST 2014 soybean futures prices have traded generally lower – from a high of $12.11 ½ on July 14th, to a low of $11.53 ¼ on July 15th before closing at $11.76 ¾ on Friday, July 18th.  Prior to the July 11th report, AUGUST 2014 soybean futures had trended sharply higher from a low of $11.95 ¾ on January 30, 2014 to a high of $14.59 on May 22nd, and then after trending lower, another high of $13.92 ¼ on June 22nd, before declining sharply down to present levels below $12.00 in mid-July.

Figure 1. AUGUST 2014 and NOVEMBER 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

“New crop” NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures contract prices also responded in a negative manner to the information in the July 11th USDA reports.  On the day of the report – Friday, July 11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $10.93 ¼ /bu, and traded as high as $10.96 ¾ and as low as $10.65 during the session, before settling at $10.75 – down $0.18 for the day (Figure 1).   Since then NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a low of $10.68 ¾ on July 14th to a high of $11.18 ¾ on July 17th, before closing at $10.85 ¼ on Friday, July 18th.  Prior to the July 11th report, NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures had trend sharply higher from a low of $10.88 ¼ on January 31st to a high of $12.49 ¼ on April 28th, and then to a “higher high” of $12.79 on May 22nd.  Since then, prices have fallen $1.93 ¾ lower through July 18th, before closing at $10.85 ¼ on July 18th.   

I-D. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production

Following the results of June 30th USDA NASS Acreage report, the USDA projected that 2014 U.S. soybean total planted acreage would be 84.839 million acres (ma), up 346,000 acres from the March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, and up from 76.533 ma in 2013, 77.198 ma in 2012, and 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 2).   In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 84.058 ma, down from its June 11 WASDE report projection of 80.5 ma, and down from 75.869 ma in 2013, and 76.164 ma in 2012, but up from 81.446 ma in 2011.   The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. soybeans is projected to be 99.07%, compared to 99.13% in to 2013, 98.66% in 2012, and 98.30% in 2011. 

The projected 2014 U.S. average soybean yield of 45.2 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is unchanged from the May-June WASDE reports, and would be a record high, up from 43.3 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 39.8 bu/ac., and the historic high of 44.0 bu/ac in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3).   Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected  2014 U.S. soybean production to be a record high 3.800 billion bushels (bb) – which is up from 3.289 bb in 2013, 3.034 bb in 2012, 3.094 bb in 2011, 3.329 in 2010, 3.359 bb in 2009, and 2.957 bb in 2008 (Table 1).   

U.S. Soybean Total Supplies

The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are 3.995 bb – up 180 million bushels or ‘mb’ from June.  Total “new crop” supplies of 3.995 bb result from beginning stocks of 140 mb, projected 2014 production of 3.800 bb, and projected imports of 15 mb (Table 1).   Total supplies of 3.995 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, comparable to 3.655 bb in MY 2006/07 (2nd highest), 3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.512 bb in MY 2009/10 (4th highest), 3.495 bb in MY 2010/11 (5th highest), 3.325 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.239 bb in MY 2012/13, and 3.514 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14 (3rd highest). 

Beginning stocks of 140 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up 15 mb from June, down marginally from 141 mb in “current year” MY 2013/14, and down from 169 mb in MY 2012/13, and 215 mb in MY 2011/12.  This forecast of lower beginning stocks of 140 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the low of 112 mb which occurred in MY 2004/05, and to what is at least a 40 year low of 103 mb in beginning stocks in MY 1977/78.

Imports of 15 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from the record high of 85 mb in “current year” MY 2013/14 (down 5 mb from June), and down from the 2nd highest amount of 36 mb in MY 2012/13.   However, U.S. soybean imports of 15 mb in “new crop” would represent a return to “normal” – being comparable to the range of 10 – 16 mb in U.S. soybean imports for the MY 2007/08 through MY 2011/12 period, and of U.S. soybean imports of less than 10 mb per marketing year going back to at least MY 1980/81.

U.S. Soybean Use by Category & Total Use

Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.755 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up 40 mb from June) are up from 1.700 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 (which is up 25 mb from June), 1.689 bb in MY 2012/13, and from 1.703 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  The record high amount of 1.808 bb of U.S. soybean domestic crushings occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity-wise with 1.803 bb in MY 2007/08. 

U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.675 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up 50 mb from June) would be a record high, up from the current estimated high of 1.620 in “current” MY 2013/14 (up 20 mb from June) (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Beginning in MY 2006/07, U.S. soybean exports were 1.116 bb, followed by 1.159 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd highest on record), 1.505 bb in MY 2010/11 (2nd highest on record), 1.365 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.320 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.620 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 (the current historic record high if actually attained), and now the projected new record high of 1.675 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales, as of July 10th, with 45 of 52 weeks (86.5%) of “current” MY 2013/14 complete, 1.605 bb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to 99.1% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.620 bb for “current” MY 2013/14.  United States’ export shipments will need to average only 2.17 mb per week through the remainder of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year to attain the USDA’s July 11th WASDE projection of 1.620 bb.  This compares to U.S. soybean export shipments of 3.29 mb and 3.48 mb which occurred during the weeks ending July 3rd and July 10th, respectively.   As a result, these recent U.S. soybean export shipments were “ahead of pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.620 bb in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.  (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).  

Also as of July 10th an additional 70.0 mb of U.S. soybeans had been sold for future export sales in “current” marketing year.  Adding together 1.605 bb in past shipments plus 70 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.675 bb, or 103.4% of the USDA’s 1.620 bb U.S. soybean export target for “current” MY 2013/14 in the July 11th USDA WASDE report, with 86.5% (45/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  

It is likely that that the as of yet unshipped soybean sales in “current” MY 2013/14 may be cancelled before physical shipment occurs, motivating the USDA to not raise its forecast of 1.620 bb in exports even closer to the total of 1.675 bb total of shipments plus forward sales as of July 10th.  If this amount of additional U.S. soybean shipments were to actually occur in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, then there would be an additional 55 mb in U.S. soybean usage (i.e., 1.675 – 1.620 bb = 55 mb). 

Concerning pre-sales of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2014/15, as of July 10th, outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans in the marketing year beginning September 1, 2015 were 451 mb.  This amount of forward sales amounts to 26.9% of projected “new crop” MY 2014/15 sales of 1.675 bb.   This total of 451 mb in forward “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. soybean sales would be expected to increase as the end of the “current” MY 2013/14 marketing year on August 31st approaches, and any remaining unshipped soybean sales in “current” MY 2013/14 are cancelled and then “rolled” into the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.

The USDA anticipates an even further reduction in the pace of U.S. soybean exports in the coming months as South American soybean exports continue to complete with those from the U.S. for World export shipments.  Also, the spike in U.S. soybean imports to a record high 85 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 seems to have in part been a reaction by World soybean market suppliers such as Brazil to the tightening “current” marketing year ending stocks situation in the United States in recent months.

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 92 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down from 99 mb in  “current” MY 2013/14 (up 4 mb from June), but up from 89 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 90 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  

Residual Use: Forecast residual use of 19 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up 1 mb from June) is up from -69 mb estimated in “current” MY 2013/14, and from 1 mb in MY 2012/13.   The appearance of a negative residual number in the U.S. soybean supply-demand balance sheet is a common occurrence for USDA Quarterly U.S. wheat balance sheets, and occurred previously in recent years in the MY 2011/12 U.S. soybean balance sheet (-2 mb).  However, the appearance of this large of a negative number for the residual measurement in “current” MY 2013/14 raises questions about the source of measurement error in the other major supply and demand categories. 

It is possible that the USDA’s estimate of ending stocks of 140 mb is too large, and should be adjusted lower by 69 mb, down to 71 mb (i.e., 140 – 69 = 71 mb). Or, the USDA could be under estimating total supplies by this amount, meaning that some combination of beginning stocks, production, and imports is underestimated by 69 mb in “current” MY 2013/14. Or, one of the usage categories could be underestimated by 69 mb, such as domestic crush.  For some reason or combination of reasons this abnormally high negative U.S. soybean residual figure exists for “current” MY 2013/14.  If the ending stocks figure of 140 mb ultimately is too high, then this negative residual figure may be masking a tighter “old crop” ending stocks situation than is currently identified by the USDA in the domestic soybean market.

Total U.S. Soybean Use: Projected U.S. total use of 3.541 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up 91 mb from June) would be a record high, and is up from 3.374 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 (which is down 21 mb from June) (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total U.S. soybean use has been 3.081 bb in MY 2006/07, 3.056 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.047 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.361 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest on record), 3.280 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.155 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.099 bb in MY 2012/13, the estimated amount of 3.374 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 (2nd largest on record), and now the projected record high of 3.541 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.   

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

U.S. soybean ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 415 mb, up 90 mb from June, and up 275 mb from 140 mb in ending stocks in “current” MY 2013/14 (which is also up 15 mb from June).  Projected “new crop” MY 2014/15 ending stocks of 415 mb would be the largest amount since 449 mb in MY 2005/06 and 574 mb in MY 2007/08, and compares to 205 mb in MY 2007/08, 138 mb in MY 2008/09, 151 in MY 2009/10, 215 mb in MY 2010/11, 169 mb in MY 2011/12, 141 mb in MY 2012/13, and the estimate of 140 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 11.71% forecast for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up from 9.42% in June) is up from the record low of 4.14% (up from 3.68% in June) now projected by the USDA for “current” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).  Over the last eight (8) years, U.S. soybean % ending stocks-to-use have been 18.62% in MY 2006/07, 6.71% in MY 2007/08, 4.53% in MY 2008/09, 4.49% in MY 2009/10, 6.55% in MY 2010/11, 5.36% in MY 2011/12, 4.54% in MY 2012/13, the estimate of 4.14% in “current” MY 2013/14, and now the projection of 11.71% for “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. average soybean prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be $9.75-$11.75 per bushel (midpoint = $10.75) – down sharply from $13.10 /bu in “current” MY 2013/14 (which is up $0.10 /bu from April) (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, U.S. soybean prices have been $6.43 per bushel in MY 2006/07, $10.10 in MY 2007/08, $9.97 in MY 2008/09, $9.59 in MY 2009/10, $11.30 in MY 2010/11, $12.50 in MY 2011/12, a record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13, $13.10 for “current” MY 2013/14, and now a range midpoint projection of $10.75 / bu in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

I-E. KSU U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Scenarios for “Next Crop” 2014/15

The USDA is projecting that “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year U.S. soybean prices will be in the range of $9.50-$11.50 per bushel (midpoint of $10.50).  Also, KSU forecasts provided here are decidedly conservative in terms of projected U.S. soybean prices, with a 50% probability of U.S. soybean prices averaging near $10.75 per bushel for “new crop” MY 2014/15, and an additional 35% probability of prices averaging near $10.00 per bushel. 

Given the market information available in July 2014 on U.S. soybean crop progress and growing conditions, these conservative price projections still seem reasonable.  However, 2014 production uncertainty and the possibility of overly pessimistic projections of U.S. soybean usage in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year may very well lead to higher prices than these forecasts.

KSU Probability Projections U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand & Prices for MY 2014/15

Kansas State University forecasts of U.S. soybean supply-demand balances for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year are provided below.   The KSU projections at this time in the marketing year cycle are an effort to reflect the uncertainty that exists in regards to the amount of 2014 U.S. soybean production.  The size of the 2014 U.S. soybean crop will be determined by 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acres on the one hand, and on 2014 U.S. soybean yields on the other.  These KSU 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage projections follow from the June 30th USDA NASS Prospective Plantings report and the July 11th USDA WASDE report

KSU projections of 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage are found in Table 1 and Figure 2.   Projections of 2014 probability-weighted U.S. soybean yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. soybean average prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are based on projections of U.S. soybean % ending stocks-to-use shown in Table 1 and Figure 6.  Three probability-weighted KSU supply-demand and price scenarios follow below for U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

In these projections the low acreage and low yield scenarios were deliberately placed together in Scenario #3 to represent the “low 2014 U.S. soybean production” scenario.  Similarly, the high planted acreage and high yield outcomes are deliberately placed together to represent the “high 2014 soybean production” outcome in scenario #2.  It is possible – and indeed likely – that at the end of the 2014 U.S. soybean growing season the size of the soybean crop could be nearly equal to either the high production or low production outcomes of scenarios #2 or #3, but for different high or low acreage and/or yield outcomes than either of these scenarios are constructed on.

Scenario #1: “Likely” 2014 U.S. crop = 3.614 billion bushels, 9.2% S/U, $10.75/bu – 50% Probability

It is estimated there is a “5 out of 10” or 50% chance of final 2014 U.S. soybean production being 3.614 billion bushels (bb) – 186 million bushels (mb) less than the USDA projection of 3.800 bb.  In this constructed scenario, the 2014 production number is calculated using planted acreage of 84.839 million acres (ma) (i.e., nearly 8.306 ma more than 2013 U.S. soybean planted acreage of 76.533 ma) (Table 1), and equal to the USDA projections for July 2014.  Assuming the 2004-2012 average U.S. soybean % harvested-to-planted acreage of 99.07% (equal to the USDA), 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 84.058 ma. 

Using an average yield of 43.0 bu/ac (less than the USDA projection of 45.2 bu/ac), 2014 U.S. soybean production would be 3.614 bb, with total U.S. soybean supplies of 3.774 bb, U.S. soybean total usage at 3.456 bb, ending stocks of 318 mb (vs 415 mb for the USDA), results in a forecast of % ending stocks-to-use near 9.20% for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (below the USDA’s projection of 11.71%).  U.S. soybean average prices would be in the range of $10.25-$11.25 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $10.75) (Table 1 and Figures 5-6). 

Scenario #2: “Higher” 2014 U.S. crop = 3.765 billion bushels, 10.70% S/U, $10.00/bu – 35% Probability

It is estimated that at this time there is a “3.5 out of 10” or 35% chance of final 2014 U.S. soybean production of 3.765 bb, just below the USDA projection of 3.800 bb.  This “high production” scenario is based on the assumption that 2014 planted acreage is 85.058 ma (i.e., 219,000 acres more than the USDA’s 2014 U.S. soybean planted acreage projection) (Table 1).   This projected level of 2014 U.S. soybean planted acres equals the upper end of the 67% confidence interval for 2014 U.S. soybean planted acres for the June 30th USDA Acreage report forecast, i.e., 101.1% times 84.839 ma = 85.058 ma.  Assuming U.S. soybean % harvested-to-planted acreage of 99.07% (equal to the USDA), 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 84.983 ma. 

It is assumed that the 2014 U.S. soybean yield would be 44.3 bu/ac, which is equal to the KSU projected long term (1973-2013) trend yield, and above the record high of 44.0 bu/ac in 2009.  It is also lower than the record high USDA projection of 2014 U.S. average soybean yield of 45.2 bu/ac.  

Given these assumptions, 2014 U.S. soybean production would be 3.765 bb, with total U.S. soybean supplies of 3.920 bb, U.S. soybean usage at 3.541 bb, ending stocks of 379 mb (vs 415 mb for the USDA), results in a forecast of % ending stocks-to-use near 10.70% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  U.S. soybean average prices would be markedly lower – in the range of $9.50-$10.50 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $10.00) (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

Scenario #3: “Lower” 2014 U.S. crop = 3.202 billion bushels, 6.55% S/U, $11.75/bu – 15% Probability

It is estimated that there is also a “1.5 out of 10” or 15% chance of final 2014 U.S. soybean production being 3.242 bb – 558 mb less than the USDA projection of 3.800 bb.  This forecast is constructed on a scenario with 2014 U.S. soybean planted acreage being 83.906 ma (i.e., approximately 7.373 ma more than 2013 U.S. soybean planted acreage of 76.533 ma) (Table 1).   This projected level of 2014 U.S. soybean planted acres equals the lower end of the 67% confidence interval for 2014 U.S. soybean planted acres for the June 30th USDA Acreage report forecast (i.e., 98.9% times 84.839 ma = 83.906 ma).   Assuming U.S. soybean % harvested-to-planted acreage of 99.07% (equal to the USDA), 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 83.133 ma. 

Using a lower U.S. soybean yield of 39.0 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. soybean production would be 3.242 bb, with total U.S. soybean supplies of 3.412 bb, U.S. soybean usage at 3.202 bb, and ending stocks of 210 mb, results in % ending stocks-to-use near 6.55% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  In this “short crop” scenario, U.S. soybean average prices would be in the range of $11.25-$12.25 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $11.75) (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

II. World Soybean Supply-Demand Trends

World soybean production is projected to increase 7.4% in “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year over “current year” MY 2013/14.  With a forecast increase in available World soybean total supplies in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (372.0 mmt, up 9.2% from 340.7 mmt a year ago, and up from 321.5 mmt two years ago), World soybean total use is also projected to increase by 4.9% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 over “current” MY 2013/14. 

Since early 2013 U.S. soybean markets have been driven by the following key factors, including a) record large 2013 South American soybean supplies, followed by what appears to be an even larger record South American crop again in 2014 – albeit with logistical shipping problems in Brazilian ports in mid-2013, b) uncertain 2013 U.S. soybean production prospects through the spring planting season and summer months – culminating in what ultimately became a “large crop” in the fall of 2013, and prospects for an even larger record U.S. soybean crop in 2014, and c) ongoing strength of World soybean and soybean product import demand from China and other countries. 

Now uncertainty about 2014 U.S. soybean crop prospects may become a factor in World soybean markets should any crop production problems emerge in coming months.  Following a large increase in U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage in 2014, and with prospects for a large 2014 U.S. soybean crop which is likely to result in markedly lower U.S. and World soybean prices this coming fall.

II-A. World Soybean Production by Country / Region

Projected World soybean production of 304.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, up 20.9 mmt (7.4%) from 283.9 mmt for “current” MY 2013/14, and up from 267.9 mmt in MY 2012/13;  the recent low of 239.5 mmt in MY 2011/12; and the range of 212-264 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean production is projected to be 201.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.6% from 194.4 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 8.6% from 185.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

It is important to note that South American soybean production in “new crop” MY 2014/15 will not be planted until at least the later months of 2014 and consequently will not be harvested until February-March 2015 at the earliest.  Most of the source of market uncertainty that could occur in “new crop” MY 2014/15 throughout the remainder of calendar year 2014 (at least through fall harvest in the U.S.) will be associated with U.S. soybean production crop progress and conditions.

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major soybean producing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 and “current” 2013/14 marketing years, along with MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases are projected in most major producing countries or regions in “current” MY 2013/14 except for China and Argentina (unchanged).  In “new crop” MY 2014/15, the United States (103.4 mmt – up 13.9 mmt for the year) is projected to be the largest World producer of soybeans, followed by Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt from the “current” MY 2013/14’s record high of 87.5 mmt), Argentina (54.0 mmt – unchanged vs a year ago), China (12.0 mmt – down 0.2 mmt), and Paraguay (8.2 mmt – up 0.1 mmt).

II-B. World Soybean Exports by Country / Region

Global soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 113.3 mmt, up 1.7% from 111.6 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 12.6% from 100.7 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean exports are projected to be 67.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 0.2% from 67.6 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 4.6% from 64.7 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major soybean exporting countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, and also for “current” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, but not for Argentina (unchanged), Brazil (down), or Paraguay (marginal increase).  The largest projected exporter of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is the United States (45.6 mmt – up 1.5 mmt vs last year), Brazil (45.0 mmt – down 0.75 mmt from a year ago), followed by the Argentina (8.5 mmt – unchanged), and Paraguay (4.3 mmt – up 0.02 mmt).

II-C. World Soybean Imports by Country / Region

Global soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 109.9 mmt, up 1.5% from 108.2 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 14.8% from 95.7 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean imports are projected to be 109.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.4% from 105.9 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 15.6% from 94.7 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major soybean importing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “current” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the China, and Mexico, with decreased imports projected for the United States, the European Union, and Japan.  China is projected to be the largest World soybean importer, with “new crop” MY 2014/15 soybean imports increasing to 73.0 mmt – up 4.0 mmt from a year ago.  China is followed by the European Union (12.5 mmt – down 0.15 mmt), Mexico (3.74 mmt – up 0.09 mmt), and Japan (2.8 mmt – down 0.07 mmt). 

II-D. World Soybean Domestic Crush by Country / Region

Global soybean domestic crush in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a 250.9 mmt, up 4.3% from 240.6 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 9.3% from 229.6 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean domestic crush is projected to be 203.2 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 4.9% from 193.8 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 10.6% from 183.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean domestic crush in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “current” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean crush use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for nearly all major importing and exporting countries except for Japan (down marginally).  China (73.5 mmt – up 4.75 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans for domestic crushing in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (47.8 mmt – up 0.8 mmt), Argentina (39.8 mmt – up 2.5 mmt), Brazil (37.1 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), the European Union (12.6 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), Mexico (4.0 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), Paraguay (3.7 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), and Japan (1.95 mmt – down 0.04 mmt).  

II-E. World Soybean Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean total use of 283.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is a record high, up 4.9% from the previous record of 270.1 mmt for “current” MY 2013/14, up 9.1% from 257.3 mmt in MY 2012/13; and up from the range of 221-258 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 6 and Figure 7).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean total use is projected to be 232.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 4.6% from 222.3 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 10.0% from 211.3 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of soybean total use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “current” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean total use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for all major producing and using countries except Japan – for which a small marginal decline is forecast.  China (84.9 mmt – up 4.9 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (50.8 mmt – up 3.0 mmt), Argentina (41.9 mmt – up 2.6 mmt), Brazil (40.1 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), the European Union (13.6 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), Mexico (4.0 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), Paraguay (3.8 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), and Japan (3.0 mmt, down 0.1 mmt). 

II-F. World Soybean Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World soybean ending stocks of 85.3 mmt for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up 26.9% from 67.2 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 50.1% from 56.8 mmt in MY 2012/13, and above the range of 43-70 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks are projected to be 74.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 16.7% from 67.2 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up 39.6% from 53.0 mmt in MY 2012/13.

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean ending stocks in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “current” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, the European Union, and Mexico, with decreases or no change in ending stocks projected for China (down), and Japan (down marginally). 

Argentina (32.2 mmt – up 3.6 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the World’s largest holder of soybean ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (24.1 mmt – up 6.4 mmt), China (13.1 mmt – down 0.2 mmt), the United States (11.3 mmt – up 7.5 mmt), the European Union (0.88 mmt – up 0.05 mmt), Paraguay (0.33 mmt – up 0.07 mmt), Japan (0.17 mmt – down 0.01 mmt), and Mexico (0.15 mmt – up 0.03 mmt). 

II-G. World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Forecast World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 30.1% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 represents a record high (going back at least 51 years to MY 1964/65), being up from 24.9% in “current” MY 2013/14, and 21.9% in MY 2012/13, and is comparable to 22.4% in MY 2011/12, 26.6% in MY 2010/11, 23.4% in MY 2009/10, 20.4% in MY 2008/09, and 24.0% in MY 2007/08 (Table 8).  The minimum level of World soybean % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1960s occurred in MY 1976/77 (6.9% S/U), MY 1996/97 (11.8% S/U), and MY 1978/79 (12.6% S/U).  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 20.4% in MY 2008/09 is the lowest since 19.3% in MY 2001/02.  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 24.7% in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up from 21.9% in “current” MY 2013/14, and up from 19.2% in MY 2012/13.

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “current” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean percent ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, the European Union, and Mexico, with decreased ending stocks projected for China and Japan. 

Argentina (63.8% S/U – up from 59.7% a year ago) is projected to be the largest World holder of soybeans in terms of ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (28.3% – up from 20.6%), China (15.4% – down from 16.6%), the United States (11.7% – up from 4.2%), the European Union (6.4% – up from 4.7%), Japan (5.6% – down from 5.8%), Paraguay (4.0% – up from 3.3%), and Mexico (3.8% – up from 3.1%). 

Table 1. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2007/08 through KSU Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

  (July 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report + KSU Projections)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

 

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

KSU 2014/15

Low Production

KSU 2014/15

Expected

Production

KSU 2014/15

High Production 

Percent Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15%

50%

35%

Planted Area (million acres)

75.718

77.451

77.404

75.046

77.198

76.533

84.839

83.906

84.839

85.058

Harvested Area (million acres)

74.681

76.372

76.610

73.776

76.164

75.869

84.058

83.133

84.058

84.983

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.63%

98.60%

98.97%

98.30%

98.66%

99.13%

99.07%

99.07%

99.07%

99.07%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

39.7

44.0

43.5

41.9

39.8

43.3

45.2

39.0

43.0

44.3

 

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks

205

138

151

215

169

141

140

140

140

140

Production

2,967

3,359

3,329

3,094

3,034

3,289

3,800

3,242

3,614

3,765

Imports

13

15

14

16

36

85

15

30

20

15

Total Supply

3,185

3,512

3,495

3,325

3,239

3,514

3,995

3,412

3,774

3,920

Domestic Crushings

1,662

1,752

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,725

1,755

1,600

1,720

1,755

Exports

1,279

1,499

1,505

1,365

1,320

1,620

1,675

1,500

1,625

1,675

Seed

90

90

87

90

89

99

92

92

92

92

Residual

16

20

43

-2

1

-69

19

10

19

19

Total Use

3,047

3,361

3,280

3,155

3,099

3,374

3,541

3,202

3,456

3,541

Ending Stocks

138

151

215

169

141

140

415

210

318

379

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.53%

4.49%

6.55%

5.36%

4.54%

4.14%

11.71%

6.55%

9.20%

10.70%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$9.97

$9.59

 

$11.30

$12.50

$14.40

$13.00

$9.50-$11.50

($10.50)

$11.25-$12.25

($11.75)

$10.25-$11.25

($10.75)

$9.50-$10.50

($10.00)

Figure 2. U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage (2004-2014) with 2014 Projections

Figure 3. U.S. Soybean Yield Trend (1973-2014) and KSU 2014 Projections

Text Box: 2014 Trend Yield = 44.3 (1973-2013 Series)
43.5 bu/ac

Figure 4. Trends in U.S. Soybean Use and Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 - “New Crop” MY 2014/15

                    (July 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Figure 5. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 – “New Crop” 2014/15                   
June 11th USDA WASDE with KSU projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15

Figure 6. U.S. Soybean Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “New Crop” MY 2014/15)

Text Box: KSU “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
9.20% S/U
 $10.75 /bu

Text Box: USDA “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
11.71% S/U @ $10.50 /bu
Text Box: 2011/12

Figure 7. World Soybean Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “New Crop” MY 2014/15                               
(July 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: Soybean Usage
ñ10.3 mmt/yr (+4.7%/yr) since 2008/09
Text Box: Soybean Production
ñ15.5 mmt/yr (+7.3%/yr) since 2008/09
 
Text Box: Soybean Trade
113.3 mmt in     MY 2014/15 is ñ6.0 mmt/yr (+7.8%/yr) since 2008/09 
Text Box: Soybean 
End Stocks
85.3 mmt in MY 2014/15
 
43-85 mmt
since 2007/08
 

 

Table 2. World Soybean Production Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Production: New Crop 2014/15     July 2014

Soybean Production: June 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production:               July Less June 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         July of June 2014

July Soybean Production: Current 2013/14          

June Soybean Production: Current 2013/14

July Less June Soybean  Production             for Current 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Production of                         Current 2013/14

Soybean Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% Current 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

304.79

299.99

4.80

101.6%

283.87

283.79

0.08

20.92

107.4%

267.98

36.81

113.7%

United States

103.42

98.93

4.49

104.5%

89.51

89.51

0.00

13.91

115.5%

82.56

20.86

125.3%

Total Foreign

201.37

201.07

0.30

100.1%

194.37

194.28

0.09

7.00

103.6%

185.42

15.95

108.6%

Major Exporters

156.60

156.60

0.00

100.0%

153.10

153.10

0.00

3.50

102.3%

143.25

13.35

109.3%

Argentina

54.00

54.00

0.00

100.0%

54.00

54.00

0.00

0.00

100.0%

49.30

4.70

109.5%

Brazil

91.00

91.00

0.00

100.0%

87.50

87.50

0.00

3.50

104.0%

82.00

9.00

111.0%

Paraguay

8.20

8.20

0.00

100.0%

8.10

8.10

0.00

0.10

101.2%

8.30

(0.10)

98.8%

Major Importers

14.80

14.80

0.00

100.0%

14.75

14.75

0.00

0.05

100.3%

15.33

(0.53)

96.5%

China

12.00

12.00

0.00

100.0%

12.20

12.20

0.00

(0.20)

98.4%

13.05

(1.05)

92.0%

EU - 28 Countries

1.43

1.43

0.00

100.0%

1.23

1.23

0.00

0.20

116.3%

0.95

0.48

150.5%

Japan

0.21

0.21

0.00

100.0%

0.20

0.20

0.00

0.01

105.0%

0.24

(0.03)

87.5%

Mexico

0.29

0.29

0.00

100.0%

0.25

0.25

0.00

0.04

116.0%

0.25

0.04

116.0%

 

Table 3. World Soybean Export Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Exports: New Crop 2014/15     July 2014

Soybean Exports: June 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:               July Less June 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         July of June 2014

July Soybean Exports: Current 2013/14          

June Soybean Exports: Current 2013/14

July Less June Soybean  Exports             for Current 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports of Current 2013/14

Soybean Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports             Less 2012/13

% Current 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

113.29

112.33

0.96

100.9%

111.64

110.64

1.00

1.65

101.5%

100.65

12.64

112.6%

United States

45.59

44.23

1.36

103.1%

44.09

43.55

0.54

1.50

103.4%

35.91

9.68

127.0%

Total Foreign

67.70

68.10

(0.40)

99.4%

67.55

67.45

0.10

0.15

100.2%

64.74

2.96

104.6%

Major Exporters

61.00

61.50

(0.50)

99.2%

61.90

61.65

0.25

(0.90)

98.5%

58.69

2.31

103.9%

Argentina

8.50

9.00

(0.50)

94.4%

8.50

8.50

0.00

0.00

100.0%

7.74

0.76

109.8%

Brazil

45.00

45.00

0.00

100.0%

45.75

45.50

0.25

(0.75)

98.4%

41.90

3.10

107.4%

Paraguay

4.32

4.32

0.00

100.0%

4.30

4.30

0.00

0.02

100.5%

5.52

(1.20)

78.3%

Major Importers

0.39

0.39

0.00

100.0%

0.32

0.31

0.01

0.07

121.9%

0.38

0.01

102.6%

China

0.30

0.30

0.00

100.0%

0.24

0.23

0.01

0.06

125.0%

0.27

0.03

111.1%

EU - 28 Countries

0.07

0.07

0.00

100.0%

0.06

0.06

0.00

0.01

116.7%

0.09

(0.02)

77.8%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

 

Table 4. World Soybean Import Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Imports: New Crop 2014/15     July 2014

Soybean Imports: June 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:               July Less June 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         July of June 2014

July Soybean Imports: Current 2013/14          

June Soybean Imports: Current 2013/14

July Less June Soybean  Imports             for Current 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports of Current 2013/14

Soybean Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less 2012/13

% Current 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

109.87

108.68

1.19

101.1%

108.21

107.38

0.83

1.66

101.5%

95.71

14.16

114.8%

United States

0.41

0.41

0.00

100.0%

2.31

2.45

(0.14)

(1.90)

17.7%

0.98

(0.57)

41.8%

Total Foreign

109.46

108.27

1.19

101.1%

105.90

104.93

0.97

3.56

103.4%

94.72

14.74

115.6%

Major Exporters

0.53

0.52

0.01

101.9%

0.58

0.57

0.01

(0.05)

91.4%

0.41

0.12

129.3%

Argentina

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.55

0.55

0.00

(0.05)

90.9%

0.40

0.10

125.0%

Paraguay

0.03

0.02

0.01

150.0%

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.02

300.0%

Major Importers

98.25

97.25

1.00

101.0%

94.10

93.73

0.37

4.15

104.4%

84.16

14.09

116.7%

China

73.00

72.00

1.00

101.4%

69.00

69.00

0.00

4.00

105.8%

59.87

13.13

121.9%

EU - 28 Countries

12.50

12.50

0.00

100.0%

12.65

12.45

0.20

(0.15)

98.8%

12.51

(0.01)

99.9%

Japan

2.80

2.80

0.00

100.0%

2.87

2.80

0.07

(0.07)

97.6%

2.83

(0.03)

98.9%

Mexico

3.74

3.74

0.00

100.0%

3.65

3.65

0.00

0.09

102.5%

3.41

0.33

109.7%

 

Table 5. World Soybean Crush Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Crush                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Crush: New Crop 2014/15     July 2014

Soybean Crush: June 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Crush:               July Less June 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Crush:                Percent (%)         July of June 2014

July Soybean Crush: Current 2013/14          

June Soybean Crush: Current 2013/14

July Less June Soybean  Crush for Current 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Crush             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Crush of Current 2013/14

Soybean Crush: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Crush             Less 2012/13

% Current 2014/15 Crush       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

250.91

248.45

2.46

101.0%

240.55

239.09

1.46

10.36

104.3%

229.56

21.35

109.3%

United States

47.76

46.68

1.08

102.3%

46.95

46.27

0.68

0.81

101.7%

45.97

1.79

103.9%

Total Foreign

203.15

201.77

1.38

100.7%

193.61

192.82

0.79

9.54

104.9%

183.60

19.55

110.6%

Major Exporters

80.80

80.80

0.00

100.0%

77.95

77.95

0.00

2.85

103.7%

71.90

8.90

112.4%

Argentina

39.80

39.80

0.00

100.0%

37.30

37.30

0.00

2.50

106.7%

33.61

6.19

118.4%

Brazil

37.10

37.10

0.00

100.0%

37.00

37.00

0.00

0.10

100.3%

35.24

1.86

105.3%

Paraguay

3.70

3.70

0.00

100.0%

3.50

3.50

0.00

0.20

105.7%

2.95

0.75

125.4%

Major Importers

95.33

94.28

1.05

101.1%

90.20

89.63

0.57

5.13

105.7%

86.14

9.19

110.7%

China

73.50

72.50

1.00

101.4%

68.75

68.35

0.40

4.75

106.9%

64.95

8.55

113.2%

EU - 28 Countries

12.63

12.58

0.05

100.4%

12.50

12.35

0.15

0.13

101.0%

12.74

(0.11)

99.1%

Japan

1.95

1.95

0.00

100.0%

1.99

1.96

0.03

(0.04)

98.0%

1.92

0.03

101.6%

Mexico

3.97

3.97

0.00

100.0%

3.85

3.85

0.00

0.12

103.1%

3.65

0.32

108.8%

 

Table 6. World Soybean Total Use Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Total Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Total Use: New Crop 2014/15     July 2014

Soybean Total Use: June 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use:               July Less June 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use:  Percent (%)         July of June 2014

July Soybean Total Use: Current 2013/14          

June Soybean Total Use: Current 2013/14

July Less June Soybean  Total Use             for Current 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Total Use of Current 2013/14

Soybean Total Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use             Less 2012/13

% Current 2014/15 Total Use of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

283.31

280.63

2.68

101.0%

270.05

270.05

0.00

13.26

104.9%

259.74

23.57

109.1%

United States

50.78

49.67

1.11

102.2%

47.74

48.84

(1.10)

3.04

106.4%

48.42

2.36

104.9%

Total Foreign

232.53

230.97

1.56

100.7%

222.31

221.21

1.10

10.22

104.6%

211.33

21.20

110.0%

Major Exporters

86.06

86.05

0.01

100.0%

83.13

83.13

0.00

2.93

103.5%

76.94

9.12

111.9%

Argentina

41.90

41.90

0.00

100.0%

39.35

39.35

0.00

2.55

106.5%

35.55

6.35

117.9%

Brazil

40.10

40.10

0.00

100.0%

39.98

39.98

0.00

0.12

100.3%

38.19

1.91

105.0%

Paraguay

3.84

3.83

0.01

100.3%

3.64

3.63

0.01

0.20

105.5%

3.08

0.76

124.7%

Major Importers

112.55

111.50

1.05

100.9%

107.22

106.50

0.72

5.33

105.0%

102.88

9.67

109.4%

China

84.90

83.90

1.00

101.2%

80.05

79.65

0.40

4.85

106.1%

76.18

8.72

111.4%

EU - 28 Countries

13.61

13.56

0.05

100.4%

13.43

13.28

0.15

0.18

101.3%

13.65

(0.04)

99.7%

Japan

3.01

3.01

0.00

100.0%

3.08

3.01

0.07

(0.07)

97.7%

3.01

0.00

100.0%

Mexico

4.00

4.00

0.00

100.0%

3.89

3.89

0.00

0.11

102.8%

3.69

0.31

108.4%

 

Table 7. World Soybean Ending Stocks Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean End Stocks                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean End Stocks: New Crop 2014/15     July 2014

Soybean End Stocks: June 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks:               July Less June 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks: Percent (%) July of June 2014

July Soybean End Stocks: Current 2013/14          

June Soybean End Stocks: Current 2013/14

July Less June Soybean  End Stocks             for Current 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks of                         Current 2013/14

Soybean End Stocks: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks Less                     2012/13

% Current 2014/15 End Stocks of                         2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

85.31

82.88

2.43

102.9%

67.24

67.17

0.07

18.07

126.9%

56.84

28.47

150.1%

United States

11.28

8.84

2.44

127.6%

3.82

3.40

0.42

7.46

295.3%

3.83

7.45

294.5%

Total Foreign

74.02

74.04

(0.02)

100.0%

63.42

63.77

(0.35)

10.60

116.7%

53.01

21.01

139.6%

Major Exporters

56.55

56.31

0.24

100.4%

46.48

46.74

(0.26)

10.07

121.7%

37.83

18.72

149.5%

Argentina

32.16

31.66

0.50

101.6%

28.55

28.55

0.00

3.61

112.6%

22.40

9.76

143.6%

Brazil

24.06

24.31

(0.25)

99.0%

17.66

17.91

(0.25)

6.40

136.2%

15.33

8.73

156.9%

Paraguay

0.33

0.34

(0.01)

97.1%

0.26

0.27

(0.01)

0.07

126.9%

0.07

0.26

471.4%

Major Importers

14.66

15.07

(0.41)

97.3%

14.55

14.90

(0.35)

0.11

100.8%

13.23

1.43

110.8%

China

13.09

13.50

(0.41)

97.0%

13.29

13.70

(0.41)

(0.20)

98.5%

12.38

0.71

105.7%

EU - 28 Countries

0.88

0.88

0.00

100.0%

0.64

0.59

0.05

0.24

137.5%

0.25

0.63

352.0%

Japan

0.17

0.17

0.00

100.0%

0.18

0.17

0.01

(0.01)

94.4%

0.18

(0.01)

94.4%

Mexico

0.15

0.15

0.00

100.0%

0.12

0.12

0.00

0.03

125.0%

0.10

0.05

150.0%

 

Table 8. World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Ending %Stx/Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: New Crop 2014/15     July 2014

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: June 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use:               July Less June 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use:                Percent (%) July of June 2014

July Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Current 2013/14          

June Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Current 2013/14

July Less June Soybean  Ending %Stx/Use             for Current 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use of                         Current 2013/14

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use             Less 2012/13

% Current 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use of                         2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

30.1%

29.5%

0.6%

102.0%

24.9%

24.9%

0.0%

5.2%

120.9%

21.9%

8.2%

137.6%

United States

11.7%

17.8%

-6.1%

65.8%

4.2%

3.7%

0.5%

7.5%

281.4%

4.5%

7.2%

257.7%

Total Foreign

24.7%

32.1%

-7.4%

76.9%

21.9%

22.1%

-0.2%

2.8%

112.7%

19.2%

5.5%

128.4%

Major Exporters

38.5%

65.4%

-27.0%

58.8%

32.0%

32.3%

-0.2%

6.4%

120.0%

27.9%

10.6%

137.9%

Argentina

63.8%

75.6%

-11.8%

84.4%

59.7%

59.7%

0.0%

4.1%

106.9%

51.7%

12.1%

123.3%

Brazil

28.3%

60.6%

-32.4%

46.6%

20.6%

21.0%

-0.4%

7.7%

137.2%

19.1%

9.1%

147.7%

Paraguay

4.0%

8.9%

-4.8%

45.6%

3.3%

3.4%

-0.1%

0.8%

123.5%

0.8%

3.2%

496.8%

Major Importers

13.0%

13.5%

-0.5%

96.0%

13.5%

14.0%

-0.4%

-0.5%

95.9%

12.8%

0.2%

101.3%

China

15.4%

16.1%

-0.7%

95.5%

16.6%

17.2%

-0.6%

-1.2%

92.8%

16.2%

-0.8%