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Soybean Market Outlook in Late May 2015

May 28, 2015


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on May 12th, soybean futures prices have moved lower.   Near term U.S. soybean market price prospects are limited by a) record high 2014 South American and U.S. soybean crops and burgeoning World soybean stocks, b) prospects for record or near-record South American and U.S. soybean production and ending stocks again 2015, and c) the rising value of the U.S. dollar – putting U.S. soybeans at a disadvantage to those available from South America (with their “weaker” currencies).  Soybean price prospects seem limited until June-July 2015 - the when questions about late planting problems in the U.S. in 2015 are answered.  After that, 2015 U.S. soybean production prospects are likely to influence soybean markets through fall harvest.

Longer term, the strong upward trend in World soybean production since MY 2008/09 has “out-paced” the increase in World soybean use over the same period, leading to record World soybean ending stocks and stocks-to-use, and to a dramatic reduction in price prospects in the coming year.  Absent major unforeseen crop production problems in the U.S. and South America in “new crop” MY 2015/16, low prices and poor profitability are likely to cause a scaling back of production by World farmers in MY 2016/17 and beyond.

USDA U.S. Soybean Projection for “New Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. soybean production of 3.850 billion bushels (bb) – down 119 million bushels (mb) from the record high of 3.969 bb in 2013.  For “new crop” MY 2015/16, USDA projected U.S. total supplies at a record 4.230 bb (vs 4.091 bb in “current” MY 2014/15), crush at 1.825 bb (up 20 mb), exports at 1.775 bb (down from the record 1.800 bb), total use at 3.729 bb (vs record of 3.741 bb), and ending stocks at a 9 year high of 500 mb (vs 350 mb).   Ending stocks-to-use are projected at 13.41% - up 9.36% in “current” MY 2014/15, and the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14.  The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2015/16 prices to be in the range $8.25-$9.75 (midpoint = $9.00 /bu) – down from $10.05 in MY 2014/15, $13.00 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13.     

USDA & KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2015/16:

A) KSU “Normal Crop” Scenario: 30% prob. of 84.635 ma planted, 83.696 ma harvested, trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.775 bb 2015 production, 4.155 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.682 bb total use, 473 mb end stocks, 12.85% ending S/U (vs 9.36% in MY 2014/15), & $9.25 /bu (vs $10.05 in MY 2014/15).

B) KSU “Normal-Large Crop” Scenario: 50% prob. of 86.701 ma planted, 85.739 ma harvested, trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.867 bb 2015 production, 4.247 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.742 bb total use, 505 mb end stocks, 13.50% ending S/U (vs 9.36% in MY 2014/15), & $8.90 /bu (vs $10.05 in MY 2014/15).

C) KSU “Short Crop” Scenario: 20% prob. of 86.701 ma planted, 85.739 ma harvested, low yield of 40.0 bu/ac, 3.430 bb 2015 production, 3.820 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.543 bb total use, 277 mb end stocks, 7.82% ending S/U (vs 9.36% in MY 2014/15), & $10.65 /bu (vs $10.05 in MY 2014/15).   

World Soybean Supply-Demand: Record high projected World soybean production of 317.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is forecast equal to 317.25 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up from 283.25 mmt in MY 2013/14.  Forecast South American “new crop” MY 2015/16 soybean production is as follows: Brazil (97.0 mmt – up 2.5 mmt from a year earlier), Argentina (57.0 mmt – down 1.5 mmt), and Paraguay (8.8 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), totaling 162.8 mmt (up from 161.5 mmt last year).  World soybean exports of 122.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 117.5 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up from 112.9 mmt in MY 2013/14.  Record high projected World soybean ending stocks of 96.2 mmt (31.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 85.5 mmt (29.3% S/U) in “current” MY 2014/15, and up from 63.4 mmt (23.1 % S/U) in MY 2014/15.  


I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. May USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections

On May 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply-demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.  The “new crop” 2015/16 U.S. corn marketing year will begin on September 1, 2015 and will last through August 31, 2016. 

In the May 12th WASDE report the USDA released projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops.  Projections of 2015 crop size for soybeans are based on WAOB estimates of crop acreage and yields.  However, the first projection of 2015 U.S. soybean production by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) that will be based on actual farmer surveys and field trials will be in the August 12, 2015 NASS Crop Production and WAOB WASDE reports.

I-B. Updated Comments on Predominant Soybean Market Trends

The activities of the World soybean market in over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood if a person recognizes several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade among major countries and regions of the World involved in the soybean trade.  The primary countries involved in these predominant trends have been China on the demand side and South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others) and the United States on the supply side.

Uptrends in Chinese Soybean Usage & Imports

Growing Chinese domestic use and imports of soybeans have been the key market demand “driver in World soybean markets in recent years.   Chinese soybean domestic usage is has increased from 76.18 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (29.1% of World use), up to 80.3 mmt in MY 2013/14 (29.2% of World use), to 85.78 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (29.4% of World use), and further up to a projected level of 89.25 mmt (29.3% of World use) in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Chinese soybean domestic usage of 89.25 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be up 4.1% over 85.78 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 11.1% over 80.3 mmt two years ago.

Chinese domestic production of soybeans was 13.05 mmt in MY 2012/13 (17.1% of total use), 12.2 mmt in MY 2013/14 (15.2% of usage), 12.35 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15 (14.4% of use), and is projected to be 11.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (12.9% of use).  With domestic production declining as a proportion of total use over the last three marketing years with more declines expected in “new crop” MY 2015/16, China is forced to rely even more heavily on sizable amounts of soybean imports to fill domestic use needs.  

Chinese soybean imports were estimated to be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13 (62.4% of World soybean imports), 70.4 mb in MY 2013/14 (63.2% of the World total), and 73.5 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (64.4% of the World total), while being projected at 77.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (64.8% of the World total).  Chinese soybean imports of 77.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be up 5.4% over “current” MY 2014/15, and up 10.1% over two years ago.

Recent Trends in Major South American Country’s Soybean Production & Exports

There have been three successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean production of 139.5 mmt in MY 2012/13, 148.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 161.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, with a fourth successive increase projected up to 162.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Soybean production from these three key South American countries amounted to 51.9% of World production in MY 2012/13, 52.4% in MY 2013/14, and 50.9% in “current” MY 2014/15, and is projected to be 51.3% of the World total in MY 2015/16.  Projected combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean production of 162.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is estimated to be up 0.8% over “current” MY 2014/15, up 9.7% over MY 2013/14, and up 16.7% over MY 2012/13.

South American soybean exports have grown in a manner similar to production over this same period. Overall, combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean exports have trended higher in recent years – starting with 55.16 mmt in MY 2012/13, then up to 59.47 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 58.45 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, with an increase projected up to 62.85 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Total soybean exports from these three key South American countries as a proportion of World exports has actually trended lower in recent years, amounting to 54.9% in MY 2012/13, to 52.7% in MY 2013/14, and 49.7% of the World total in “current” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 51.5% of World soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Projected combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean exports of 62.85 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be up 7.5% from 58.45 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 5.7% from 59.471 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 13.9% from 55.16 mmt in MY 2012/13.  The short term marginal decline in combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay exports as a proportion of World soybean trade in “current” MY 2014/15 has been caused by increases in United States’ exports.

Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports

The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this same three period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt in MY 2013/14 (32.3% of World total), 108.0 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15 (34.0% of the World total), and a projected level of 104.8 mmt in MY 2015/16 (33.0% of World total).   Projected U.S. soybean production of 104.8 mmt (3.850 billion bushels or ‘bb’) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be down 3.0% from 108.0 mmt (3.969 bb) in “current” MY 2014/15, but up 10.8% from 91.4 mmt (3.358 bb) in MY 203/14.

United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.85 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8 mmt (1.647 bb) in MY 2013/14 (39.7% of World total), to 49.0 mmt (1.800 bb) in “current” MY 2014/15 (41.7% of the World total), with a projection of 48.3 mmt (1.775 bb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  Projected U.S. soybean exports of 48.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be down 1.4% from “current” MY 2014/15, but up 7.8% from MY 2013/14.  

The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand

It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year.  The USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 and beyond.  If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports and import demand were to falter, it would unquestionably have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices. 

As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014 and another anticipated large crop in 2015, spot cash soybean prices at Farmers Grain Coop in Hutchinson, Kansas (Hutchinson being a major grain market hub in the south central part of the state) had fallen to as low as $8.44 per bushel on September 26, 2015, before moving above $9.00 on October 24, 2015.  Cash soybean prices at this location have traded in the range of $8.86 (on May 26, 2015) to $9.93 (on November 11, 2014 and January 6, 2015) since then, with a cash spot price of $8.86 ($0.36 under basis) offered on Wednesday, May 26th.

Soybean forward contract prices for fall harvest in October 2015 in the Hutchinson, Kansas area on Wednesday, May 27th were in the range of $8.29 / bu. ($0.78 under basis November 2015 CME Soybean Futures) to $8.56 ($0.51 under basis).  “New crop” NOV 2015 soybean futures were trading at $9.15 per bushel that day at the time of these new crop forward contract bids on May 27th.

Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY 2015/16 indicate that a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be harvested in early-mid 2015 will again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in these projected trends in production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market.   The possibility of weather-related soybean production problems in the United States during the summer-fall of 2015 could impact these trends.  However, until and unless such potential production problems actually do occur, the World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant adequate supply trends” will continue into the foreseeable future.

I-C. Soybean Futures and U.S. Dollar Index Trends

“Current crop” JULY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the information in the May 12th USDA reports (Figure 1).  On the day of the reports CME JULY 2015 futures prices opened at $9.73 ½ /bu, and traded as high as $9.81 ½ and as low as $9.55 during the session, before settling at $9.55 ½ – down $0.18 ½ for the day.   Since then JULYY 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a high of $9.64 ½ on May 18th, to a low of $9.22 ½ on May 26th, before closing at $9.27 on Wednesday, May 27th.     

Figure 1. JULY 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) 

“New crop” NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures contract prices also responded in a negative manner to the information in the May 12th USDA reports (Figure 1).  On the day of the reports CME NOVEMBER 2015 futures prices opened at $9.48 ½ /bu, and traded as high as $9.55 ½ and as low as $9.30 ½ during the session, before settling at $9.30 ¾ – down $0.18 ¾ for the day.   Since then NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a high of $9.44 on May 18th, to a low of $9.02 on May 26th, before closing at $9.04 ¾ on Wednesday, May 27th.    

The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher since mid-July 2011, but has trended all that much more sharply higher since early July 2014 (Figure 2).  After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 93.3723 on March 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%.  The latest recorded close of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 89.9484 on Friday, May 22, 2015.

Figure 2. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)

This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is significant to the U.S. soybean and other grain markets, because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars). 

Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. grain exports (particularly wheat), it is a very important one – working against U.S. crops such as soybeans being an affordable, competitive alternative export product against competitors in the World grain trade.  That said, the lack of alternative suppliers of soybeans outside of the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and other smaller South American countries makes the high value of the U.S. dollar less of an inhibiting factor for U.S. soybean exports than for U.S. wheat and corn exports.

I-D. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production

In the May 12th USDA WASDE report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. soybean total planted acreage would be 84.635 million acres (ma).  This projection of 84.635 ma of soybeans planted in the U.S. for 2015 is a) up 934,000 acres (up 1.1%) from 83.701 ma in 2014, b) up 7.795 ma (up 10.1%) from 76.840 ma in 2013, c) up 7.437 ma (up 9.6%) from 77.198 ma in 2012, and d) up 9.589 ma (up 12.8%) from 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3).

Given the USDA’s implicit assumption of an average percent harvested-to-planted acreage of 98.89%, 2015 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 83.696 ma.  This projection of 83.696 ma of soybeans harvested in the U.S. for 2015 is a) up 635,000 acres (up 0.8%) from 83.061 ma in 2014, b) up 7.443 ma (up 9.8%) from 76.253 ma in 2013, c) up 7.552 ma (up 9.9%) from 76.144 ma in 2012, and d) up 9.920 ma (up 13.4%) from 73.776 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3).   

 This early 2015 USDA yield projection of 46.0 bu/ac made in the May 12th WASDE report is a) down from the record high of 47.8 bu/ac in 2014, b) up from 44.0 bu/ac in 2013 and 2009, c) up from the drought affected 2012 low yield of 40.0 bu/ac., d) up from 42.0 bu/ac in 2011, e) up from 43.5 bu/ac in 2010, and f) up from the most recent low yield of 39.7 bu/ac in 2008 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  

Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (84.635 ma), harvested acreage (83.696 ma, and yield (46.0 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. soybean production would be 3.850 billion bushels (bb).  This projection of 3.850 bb in production in 2015 would be the second highest amount of U.S. soybean production on record, compared to a) the record high of 3.969 bb 2014, and b) the range of 3.042 – 3.361 bb during the 2009-2013 period (Table 1 and Figure 5).   

U.S. Soybean Total Supplies

The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “new crop” MY 2015/16 will be a record high 4.230 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 350 million bushels (mb), projected 2015 production of 3.850 bb, and projected imports of 30 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 5).   

Over the recent period of expansion since 2006 in both U.S. corn ethanol production and Chinese soybean import demand, total supplies of U.S. soybeans were 3.655 bb in MY 2006/07 (previous record high), 3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.514 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.497 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.328 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.252 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.570 bb in MY 2013/14, the current record high of 4.091 in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and now the projection of a new record high of 4.230 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.  

Beginning stocks of 350 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are markedly higher than the record low of 92 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, 141 mb in MY 2013/14, 169 mb in MY 2012/13, and 215 mb in MY 2011/12.  This forecast of higher beginning stocks of 350 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is comparable to the recent highs of 449 mb in MY 2006/07 (2nd highest on record), and the record high of 574 mb in MY 2007/08 .  Conversely, the estimate of record low beginning stocks of 92 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the low of 112 mb which occurred in MY 2004/05, and to what was the previous record low since the early 1970s of 103 mb in beginning stocks in MY 1977/78 (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

Projected imports of 30 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are unchanged from 30 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, but down from the record high of 72 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the 2nd highest amount on record of 41 mb in MY 2012/13.   Projected United States’ soybean imports of 30 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would represent a trend toward near “normal” historically – being comparable to the range of 10 – 16 mb in U.S. soybean imports for the MY 2007/08 through MY 2011/12 period, and to U.S. soybean imports of less than 10 mb per marketing year going back to at least MY 1980/81.

U.S. Soybean Use by Category & Total Use

Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crush of 1.840 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be a new record high, up from the 3rd highest amount on record of 1.800 bb (up 10 mb) in “current crop” MY 2014/15, 1.734 bb for MY 2013/14, 1.689 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.703 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.648 bb in MY 2010/11, and from a past high of 1.752 bb in MY 2009/10 (Table 1 and Figure 6).  The historic record high amount of U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.808 bb occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity-wise with 1.803 bb in MY 2007/08. 

U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.825 in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be a record high, up from the current record of 1.800 bb (up 10 mb) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 6).  United States’ soybean exports were 1.116 bb in MY 2006/07, followed by 1.159 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.505 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.365 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.317 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.647 bb in MY 2013/14, the current high of 1.800 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and what would be the new projected high of 1.825 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales in “current crop” MY 2014/15, as of May 14th, with 37 of 52 weeks (71.15%) of “current crop” MY 2014/15 complete, 1,694.3 mb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to 94.1% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.800 bb for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).  United States’ export shipments will need to average 7.0 mb per week through the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s May 12th WASDE projection of 1.800 bb.  This compares to U.S. soybean export shipments of 9.2 mb and 9.95 mb which occurred during the weeks ending May 7th and May 14th, respectively.   As a result, U.S. soybean export shipments were generally “on pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.800 bb in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. 

Also as of May 14th an additional 132.3 mb of U.S. soybeans had also been sold for future export sales in “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Of course these future sales of U.S. soybeans are subject to the risk of cancellation later prior to actual shipment – especially with large supplies of exportable South American soybeans available, and the possibility of a large 2015 U.S. soybean crop coming available this fall.  Adding together 1,694.3 mb in actual past shipments plus 132.3 mb in forward sales amounts to 1,826.6 mb, or 101.5% of the USDA’s 1.800 bb U.S. soybean export target for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the May 12th USDA WASDE report, with only 71.15% (37/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   That said, increased exportable supplies from the 2015 South American soybean harvest during spring and early summer will continue to provide competition for U.S. soybean exports through the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year (August 31, 2015) and beyond.  

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 92 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 98 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and down from 97 mb in MY 2013/14, but up marginally from 89 mb in MY 2012/13, and 90 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 6).  

Residual Use: Forecast residual use of 38 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is unchanged from 38 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 0 mb in MY 2013/14, and 16 mb in MY 2012/13.   

Total U.S. Soybean Use: Projected U.S. total use of 3.729 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be the 2nd highest on record, behind the current record high of 3.741 bb (up 20 mb) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 6).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total U.S. soybean use has been 3.081 bb in MY 2006/07, 3.056 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.047 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.363 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.282 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.159 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.111 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.478 bb in MY 2013/14, the current record high of 3.741 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and the projected amount of 3.729 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.   

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are 500 mb, up from their “current crop” MY 2014/15 forecast of 350 mb (down 20 mb from the April WASDE).  Projected “new crop” MY 2015/16 ending stocks of 500 mb would be the largest amount since 449 mb in MY 2005/06, and 574 mb in MY 2007/08, and compares to 205 mb in MY 2007/08, 138 mb in MY 2008/09, 151 in MY 2009/10, 215 mb in MY 2010/11, 169 mb in MY 2011/12, 141 mb in MY 2012/13, the record low since at least MY 1980/81 of mb 92 in MY 2013/14, and 350 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 6). 

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 13.41% is forecast for “new crop” MY 2015/16, up from 9.36% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (down from 9.94% in April and 10.40% in March), but still up markedly from the record low of 2.65% for MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 7 and 8).  United States’ soybean % ending stocks-to-use have been 18.62% in MY 2006/07, 6.71% in MY 2007/08, 4.53% in MY 2008/09, 4.49% in MY 2009/10, 6.55% in MY 2010/11, 5.36% in MY 2011/12, 4.52% in MY 2012/13, the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14, the projection of 9.36% for “current crop” MY 2014/15, and now the latest forecast of 13.41% for “new crop” MY 2015/16.   

U.S. average soybean prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are forecast to be in the range of $8.25-$9.75 per bushel (midpoint = $9.00), down from $10.05 /bu (down $0.05) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 7 and 8).  United States’ soybean prices have been $6.43 per bushel in MY 2006/07, $10.10 in MY 2007/08, $9.97 in MY 2008/09, $9.59 in MY 2009/10, $11.30 in MY 2010/11, $12.50 in MY 2011/12, a record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13, $13.00 for MY 2013/14, $10.05 in “current crop” MY 2014/15, with the midpoint projection of $9.00 /bu in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

I-D. KSU Soybean Market Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2015/16

KSU projections reflect the likelihood of three separate U.S. soybean yield, production, and market outcome scenarios for “new crop” MY 2015/16

KSU Scenario #1 is developed on the assumption of the May 12th USDA Prospective Plantings report U.S. soybean planted acreage for 2015 – at 84.635 ma (a 934,000 acre increase from 2014) and KSU estimates of 1973-2014 trend line yields of 45.1 bu/acre.  This “normal crop” scenario is given a 30% probability (1.5 out of 5) of occurring in 2015. 

KSU Scenario #2 assumes a 3 million acre increase in 2015 U.S. soybean planted acreage from a year ago – at 86.701 ma – along with KSU estimates of 1973-2014 trend line yields of 45.1 bu/acre.  This “normal-large crop” scenario is given a 50% probability (2.5 out of 5) of occurring in 2015.

KSU Scenario #3 also assumes a 3 million acre increase in 2015 U.S. soybean planted acreage from a year ago – at 86.701 ma in 2015 – but with much lower U.S. yields in 2015 of 40.0 bu/ac.  This “short crop” scenario is given a 20% probability (1 out of 5) of occurring in 2015.

The supply-demand and price assumptions associated with these projected KSU soybean market scenarios for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are shown in Table 1, with planted and harvested acres represented in Figure 3, yields in Figure 4, total supplies in Figure 5, total use by category and ending stocks in Figure 6, and ending stocks-to-use and price outcomes in Figures 7 and 8.   Key details of each scenario are presented below.  

KSU Scenario #1: Normal 2015 U.S. crop”, U.S. Ending Stx/Use = 12.85%, $9.25 /bu. price

Probability of Occurring ð 30%

2015 U.S. Soybean Planted Area = 84.635 million acres and 2015 Trend Line Yields = 45.1 bu/ac

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 84.635 ma                Up 934,000 acres vs 2014                   (83.701 ma)

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 83.696 ma                up 635,000 acres vs 2014                   (83.061 ma)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield       = 45.1 bu/ac.               Less 2.7 bu/ac. vs 2014                       (47.8 bu/ac.)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Crop     = 3.775 bb                   Less 194 million bu vs 2014               (3.969 bb)

- Total Supplies                       = 4.155 bb                   Up 64 mb vs MY 2014/15                   (4.091 bb)

- Total Use                               = 3.682 bb                   Down 59 mb vs MY 2014/15             (3.741 bb)

- Ending Stocks                        = 0.433 bb                   Up 83 mb vs MY 2014/15                   (0.350 bb)                                                                                                                   

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 12.85% S/U               vs 9.36% S/U in MY 2014/15

- U.S. Soybean Price              = $9.25 /bu.                ò$0.80 vs MY 2014/15                      ($10.05 /bu)

 

KSU Scenario #2: Normal-Large 2015 U.S. crop”, U.S. Ending Stx/Use = 13.50%, $9.25 /bu.

Probability of Occurring ð 50%

2015 U.S. Soybean Planted Area = 86.701 million acres and 2015 Trend Line Yields = 45.1 bu/ac

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 84.701 ma                Up 3.000 ma vs 2014                          (83.701 ma)

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 85.739 ma                Up 2.678 ma vs 2014                          (83.061 ma)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield       = 45.1 bu/ac.               Less 2.7 bu/ac. vs 2014                       (47.8 bu/ac.)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Crop     = 3.867 bb                   Less 102 million bu vs 2014               (3.969 bb)

- Total Supplies                       = 4.247 bb                   Up 156 mb vs MY 2014/15                 (4.091 bb)

- Total Use                               = 3.742 bb                   Up 1 mb vs MY 2014/15                     (3.741 bb)

- Ending Stocks                        = 0.505 bb                   Up 155 mb vs MY 2014/15                 (0.350 bb)                                                                                                                   

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 13.50% S/U               vs 9.36% S/U in MY 2014/15

- U.S. Soybean Price              = $8.90 /bu.                ò$1.15 vs MY 2014/15                      ($10.05 /bu)

 

KSU Scenario #3: Short 2015 U.S. crop”, U.S. Ending Stx/Use = 7.82%, $10.65 /bu. price

Probability of Occurring ð 20%

2015 U.S. Soybean Planted Area = 86.701 million acres and 2015 Low Yields = 40.0 bu/ac

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 84.701 ma                Up 3.000 ma vs 2014                          (83.701 ma)

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 85.739 ma                Up 2.678 ma vs 2014                          (83.061 ma)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield       = 40.0 bu/ac.               Less 7.8 bu/ac. vs 2014                       (47.8 bu/ac.)

- 2015 U.S. Soybean Crop     = 3.430 bb                   Less 539 million bu vs 2014               (3.969 bb)

- Total Supplies                       = 3.820 bb                   Down 271 mb vs MY 2014/15            (4.091 bb)

- Total Use                               = 3.543 bb                   Down 198 mb vs MY 2014/15            (3.741 bb)

- Ending Stocks                        = 0.277 bb                   Down 73 mb vs MY 2014/15             (0.350 bb)                                                                                                                   

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 7.82% S/U                 vs 9.36% S/U in MY 2014/15

- U.S. Soybean Price              = $10.65 /bu.              ñ$0.60 vs MY 2014/15                      ($10.05 /bu)

 “Composite” USDA & KSU Forecast Results

Combining the results of the adjusted USDA May 12th WASDE report projection with these three KSU scenario projections yields the following results for “new crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. soybeans in terms of a “composite forecast”.  In these calculations, the USDA forecast is given a 50% weight – with KSU probability weights applied for the University projections for an overall weight of 50% as well: 

o   2015 U.S. Soybean Production                   = 3.801 bb average          (range = 3.343 to 3.867 bb)

o   U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks                        = 0.475 bb average          (range = 0.277 to 0.505 bb)

o   U.S. Soybean % Ending Stocks-to-Use    = 12.79% average             (range = 7.82% to 13.50%)

o   U.S. Soybean Price ($/bu)                            = $9.18 / bu                        (range = $8.90 to $10.65 /bu)

II. World Soybean Supply-Demand Trends

Based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates from PSD Online – standing for “Production, Supply, and Distribution Online” as of May 12, 2015 (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx), and the USDA May 12th WASDE report, the USDA is forecasting that World soybean production is projected to increase only marginally in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year over “current” MY 2014/15, and also to be up 12.0% over MY 2013/14. 

With a forecast increase in available World soybean total supplies in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (402.84 mmt, up 5.8% from 380.65 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 18.6% from 339.72 mmt in MY 2013/14), World soybean total use is also projected to increase by 4.3% in “new crop” MY 2015/16 over “current” MY 2014/15, and by 10.8% over MY 2013/14.

Since early 2013 U.S. soybean markets have been driven by several key factors, including a) record large 2013 and 2014 South American soybean crops and total supplies – albeit with logistical shipping problems in Brazilian ports in mid-2013, b) a historically large 2013 U.S. soybean crop – followed in 2014 by an even larger record high U.S. soybean crop, and c) ongoing strength of World soybean and soybean product import demand from China and other countries – particularly at lower soybean market prices. 

With at least a near record large U.S. soybean crop projected for 2015 to be harvested in the fall of this year, and another record large “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year soybean crop projected for South America to be harvested in the first half of 2016, it is likely that World supplies will grow further relative to demand in the next fifteen (15) months.  It is likely that World soybean prices will fall to their lowest levels in several years during “new crop” MY 2015/16 – absent any unanticipated market surprises such as major drought, financial system upheaval, or other World soybean trade disruption.

II-A. World Soybean Production by Country / Region

Projected World soybean production of 317.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, being up marginally from 317.25 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 12.0% from 283.25 in MY 2013/14, 268.8 mmt in MY 2012/13; the recent low of 240.4 mmt in MY 2011/12, and the range of 212.1-264.35 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean production is projected to be 212.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015.16, up 1.6% from 209.24 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and up 10.8% from 191.9 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major soybean producing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “current” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected in Brazil (up 2.5 mmt), Paraguay (up 0.3 mmt), and the European Union (up 0.21 mmt).  Decreases are projected for the United States (down 3.23 mmt), Argentina (down 1.5 mmt), and China (down 0.85 mmt).  Marginal or no changes are projected for Japan (down 0.01 mmt) and Mexico (no change).  

In “new crop” MY 2015/16, the United States (104.8 mmt) is projected to be the largest World producer of soybeans, followed by Brazil (97.0 mmt), Argentina (57.0 mmt), China (11.5 mmt), Paraguay (8.8 mmt), and the European Union (1.9 mmt), Mexico (0.36 mmt), and Japan (0.22 mmt).

II-B. World Soybean Exports by Country / Region

Global soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a record high 122.0 mmt, up 3.8% from 117.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, and up 8.0% from 112.9 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 3 and Figure 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean exports are projected to be 73.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 7.5% from 68.5 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 8.1% from 68.1 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major soybean exporting countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “current” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for Argentina and Brazil, with decreases projected for the United States and Paraguay. 

The largest projected exporter of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is Brazil (49.75 mmt – up 4.1 mmt from a year ago), the United States (48.3 mmt – down 0.7 mmt vs last year), followed by the Argentina (8.5 mmt – up 0.5 mmt), and Paraguay (4.6 mmt – down 0.2 mmt).  

II-C. World Soybean Imports by Country / Region

Global soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 119.6 mmt, up 4.8% from 114.25 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 7.5% from 111.25 mmt in MY 2013/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean imports are projected to be 118.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 4.8% from 113.3 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 8.7% from 109.3 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major soybean importing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “current” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the China and Brazil, with marginal-to-no change in imports projected for the United States, the European Union, Japan, and Mexico.  

China is projected to be the largest World soybean importer, with “new crop” MY 2015/16 soybean imports increasing to 77.5 mmt – up 4.0 mmt from a year ago.  China is followed by the European Union (12.8 mmt – up 0.05 mmt), Mexico (4.05 mmt – up 0.05 mmt), and Japan (2.85 mmt – unchanged). 

II-D. World Soybean Domestic Crush by Country / Region

Global soybean domestic crush in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be a 266.2 mmt, up 4.6% from 254.5 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 10.6% from 240.6 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean domestic crush is projected to be 206.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 5.5% from 205.4 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 12.0% from 193.4 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “current” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Sizable year-over-year increases in domestic soybean crush usage in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and China – with smaller increases forecast for the European Union and Mexico.  No change is projected for Japan. 

China (77.1 mmt – up 3.25 mmt from “current” MY 2014/15 and up 8.25 mmt from MY 2013/14) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans for domestic crushing in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by the United States (49.7 mmt – up 0.55 mmt), Argentina (42.5 mmt – up 2.9 mmt), Brazil (38.5 mmt – up 0.9 mmt), the European Union (13.7 mmt – up 0.15 mmt), Mexico (4.35 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), Paraguay (4.1 mmt – up 0.5 mmt), and Japan (1.97 mmt – unchanged).  

II-E. World Soybean Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean total use of 304.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is a record high, up 4.3% from the previous record of 291.8 mmt for “current” MY 2014/15, up 10.8% from 274.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up from the range of 221.7-261.9 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2012/14 period (Table 6 and Figure 9).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean total use is projected to be 251.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 5.1% from 238.9 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 11.7% from 224.8 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of soybean total use in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “current” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean total use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for all major producing and using countries except Japan – for which only a small marginal increase is forecast. 

China (89.25 mmt – up 3.55 mmt from “current” MY 2014/15 and up 8.95 mmt from MY 203/14) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by the United States (53.2 mmt – up 0.4 mmt), Argentina (47.6 mmt – up 3.0 mmt), Brazil (41.7 mmt – up 1.0 mmt), the European Union (14.5 mmt – up 0.16 mmt), Mexico (4.4 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), Paraguay (4.2 mmt – up 0.5 mmt), and Japan (3.05 mmt – up 0.01 mmt). 

II-F. World Soybean Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World soybean ending stocks of 96.2 mmt for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 4.3% from 291.8 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 51.8% from 63.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and above the range of 43.1-70.8 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2012/13 period (Table 7 and Figure 8).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks are projected to be 82.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up 8.7% from 76.0 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 35.6% from 60.9 mmt in MY 2013/14.

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean ending stocks in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “current” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States, Argentina, and Brazil, with only marginal increases for Paraguay, the European Union, Japan, and Mexico.  Ending stocks in China are projected to decrease.

Argentina (32.85 mmt – up 0.9 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the World’s largest holder of soybean ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (31.0 mmt – up 6.1 mmt), China (13.9 mmt – down 0.5 mmt), the United States (13.6 mmt – up 4.1 mmt), the European Union (0.34 mmt – up 0.07 mmt), Japan (0.28 mmt – up 0.02 mmt), Mexico (0.2 mmt – up 0.02 mmt), and Paraguay (0.1 mmt – up 0.01 mmt). 

II-G. World Soybean % Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Forecast World soybean percent ending stocks-to-use of 31.6% in “new crop” MY 2015/16 represents a record high (going back at least 52 years to MY 1964/65).  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 31.6% in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 29.3% in “current” MY 2014/15, and 23.1% in MY 2013/14, and is above the range of 19.4% to 28.2% during the MY 2007/08-2012/13 period (Table 9).  The minimum levels of World soybean % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1960s occurred in MY 1976/77 (6.9% S/U), MY 1996/97 (11.8% S/U), and MY 1978/79 (12.6% S/U).  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 19.4% in MY 2008/09 is the lowest since 19.3% in MY 2001/02.  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 25.4% in “new crop” MY 2015/16, up from 24.7% in “current” MY 2014/15, and up from 20.8% in MY 2013/14.

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “new crop” 2015/16 and “current” MY 2014/15 marketing years, along with MY 2013/14.  Year-over-year increases in soybean percent ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected for the United States, Brazil, Paraguay, the European Union, Japan, and Mexico, with decreased ending stocks projected for Argentina and China. 

Argentina (58.6% S/U – down from 60.7% a year ago) is projected to be the largest World holder of soybeans in terms of ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2015/16, followed by Brazil (33.9% – up from 28.9% last year and 19.2% two years ago), China (15.5% – down from 16.7% last year and from 17.9% two years ago), the United States (13.4% – up from 9.3% last year and 2.65% two years ago), Japan (9.2% – up from 8.6% last year and 7.5% two years ago), Mexico (4.6% – up from 4.2% last year and 2.9% two years ago), the European Union (2.3% – up from 1.9%), and Paraguay (1.1% – unchanged). 

II-H. Relationship Between World % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. soybean ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average soybean prices (see Figure 8), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. soybean season average cash prices and World soybean % ending stocks-to-use.  However, there appear to be two separate supply-demand relationship regimes represented in this graphic, the lower price regime that occurred during the MY 1973/74 – 2005/06 period, and the higher price regime occurring starting in MY 2006/07 and continuing through the present time (Figure 10).  The later period (since MY 2006/07) coincides with the sharp growth in Chinese soybean import demand in World soybean markets.   

Since MY 2006/07 in particular, larger World soybean supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World soybean prices.  Conversely smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher soybean prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 8 earlier, U.S. soybean prices in Figure 10 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Since MY 2006/07, the minimum World soybean percent stocks-to-use was 19.4% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 2008/09.  “New crop” projections are for World soybean percent stocks-to-use to be a record high 31.6% in “new crop” MY 2015/16. 

****************************

Table 1. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2009/10 through KSU Projections for “New Crop” MY 2015/16

  (May 12, 2015 USDA WASDE Report, and KSU Projections for the “New crop” 2015/16 marketing year)

Item

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

 

2013/14

2014/15

USDA

2015/16

KSU

USDA Acres

Trend Yield

2015/16

KSU

Higher Acres

Trend Yield 2015/16

KSU

Higher Acres

Low Yield 2015/16

Percent Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30%

50%

20%

Planted Area (million acres)

77.451

77.404

75.046

77.198

76.840

83.701

84.635

ñ0.934 ma

84.635

ñ0.934 ma

86.701

ñ3.000 ma

86.701

ñ3.000 ma

Harvested Area (million acres)

76.372

76.610

73.776

76.144

76.253

83.061

83.696

ñ0.635 ma

83.696

ñ0.635 ma

85.739

ñ2.678 ma

85.739

ñ2.678 ma

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.61%

98.97%

98.31%

98.63%

99.24%

99.24%

98.89%

98.89%

98.89%

98.89%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

44.0

43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.8

46.0

 Trend 45.1

 Trend 45.1

Low Yield 40.0

 

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks

138

151

215

169

141

92

350

350

350

350

Production

3,361

3,331

3,097

3,042

3,358

3,969

3,850

3,775

3,867

3,430

Imports

15

15

16

41

72

30

30

30

30

40

Total Supply

3,514

3,497

3,328

3,252

3,570

4,091

4,230

4,155

4,247

3,820

 

 

Domestic Crushings

1,752

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,734

1,805

 1,825

1,820

1,850

1,750

Exports

1,499

1,505

1,365

1,317

1,647

1,800

1,775

1,750

1,780

1,675

Seed

90

87

90

89

97

98

92

92

92

98

Residual

22

42

1

16

0

38

38

20

20

20

Total Use

3,363

3,282

3,159

3,111

3,478

3,741

3,729

3,682

3,742

3,543

 

 

Ending Stocks

151

215

169

141

92

350

500

473

505

277

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.49%

6.55%

5.36%

4.53%

2.65%

9.36%

13.41%

12.85%

13.50%

7.82%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$9.59

 

$11.30

$12.50

$14.40

$13.00

$10.05

$8.25-$9.75

($9.00)

$9.25

 

$8.90

 

$10.65

 

Figure 3. U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage (2004-2015) + KSU 2015 Forecast

Figure 4. U.S. Soybean Yield Trend (1973-2014) and USDA / KSU 2015 Projections

Text Box: 2015 Trend Yield = 45.1 (1973-2014 Series)
43.5 bu/ac

Figure 5. U.S. Soybean Total Supplies since MY 2004/15  

(May 12, 2015 USDA WASDE & KSU 2015/16 Forecasts)

Figure 6. U.S. Soybean Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 - 2015/16                                                        
(May 12, 2015 USDA WASDE & KSU 2015/16 Forecasts)

Figure 7. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 – 2015/16                       
May 12, 2015 USDA WASDE & KSU projections for MY 2015/16

Figure 8. U.S. Soybean Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “New Crop” MY 2015/16)

Text Box: USDA “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 
9.4% S/U @ $10.05 /bu
Text Box: 2011/12

Figure 9. World Soybean Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “New Crop” MY 2015/16                     
(May 12, 2015 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: Soybean Usage
ñ11.8 mmt /yr (+5.3% /yr) since 2008/09
Text Box: Soybean 
Ending Stocks
96.2 mmt in MY 2015/16
 
43-86 mmt during 2007/08 through 2014/15 period
 
Text Box: Soybean Production
ñ15.0 mmt /yr (+7.1% /yr) since 2008/09
 
Text Box: Soybean Trade
122.0 mmt in     MY 2015/16 is ñ6.4 mmt /yr (+8.3% /yr) since 2008/09

Figure 10. U.S. Soybean Price vs World % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “New Crop” MY 2015/16)

Text Box: 2014/15 
29.3% S/U 
@ $10.05 /bu
Text Box: 2012/13 
21.6% S/U
@ $14.40 /bu
 
 

 

Table 2. World Soybean Production Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Current” 2014/15, and 2013/14

World Soybean Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Production: New Crop 2015/16     May 2015

Soybean Production: April 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Production:               May Less April                

New Crop 2015/16 Production:                Percent (%)         May 2015 of April 2015

May  Soybean Production: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15          

April Soybean Production: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

May Less April Soybean  Production             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Production             Less Last year’s 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Production of                         Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

Soybean Production: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Production             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Production       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

317.30

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

317.25

315.46

1.79

0.05

100.0%

283.25

34.05

112.0%

United States

104.78

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

108.01

108.01

0.00

(3.23)

97.0%

91.39

13.39

114.7%

Total Foreign

212.52

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

209.24

207.45

1.79

3.28

101.6%

191.86

20.66

110.8%

Major Exporters

166.30

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

165.00

163.50

1.50

1.30

100.8%

151.80

14.50

109.6%

Argentina

57.00

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

58.50

57.00

1.50

(1.50)

97.4%

53.50

3.50

106.5%

Brazil

97.00

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

94.50

94.50

0.00

2.50

102.6%

86.70

10.30

111.9%

Paraguay

8.80

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

8.50

8.50

0.00

0.30

103.5%

8.20

0.60

107.3%

Major Importers

14.81

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

15.45

15.37

0.08

(0.64)

95.9%

14.72

0.09

100.6%

China

11.50

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

12.35

12.35

0.00

(0.85)

93.1%

12.20

(0.70)

94.3%

European Union - 28

1.90

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

1.69

1.72

(0.03)

0.21

112.4%

1.21

0.69

157.0%

Japan

0.22

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.23

0.21

0.02

(0.01)

95.7%

0.20

0.02

110.0%

Mexico

0.36

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.36

0.29

0.07

0.00

100.0%

0.24

0.12

150.0%

 

Table 3. World Soybean Export Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Current” 2014/15, and 2013/14

World Soybean Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Exports: New Crop 2015/16     May 2015

Soybean Exports: April 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Exports:               May Less April          

New Crop 2015/16 Exports:                Percent (%)         May 2015 of April 2015

May Soybean Exports: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15          

April Soybean Exports: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

May Less April Soybean  Exports             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Exports Less Last year’s 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Exports of Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

Soybean Exports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Exports             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Exports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

121.98

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

117.50

117.52

(0.02)

4.48

103.8%

112.94

9.04

108.0%

United States

48.31

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

48.99

48.72

0.27

(0.68)

98.6%

44.82

3.49

107.8%

Total Foreign

73.67

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

68.51

68.80

(0.29)

5.16

107.5%

68.12

5.55

108.1%

Major Exporters

66.13

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

61.73

62.08

(0.35)

4.40

107.1%

62.71

3.42

105.5%

Argentina

8.50

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

8.00

8.00

0.00

0.50

106.3%

7.84

0.66

108.4%

Brazil

49.75

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

45.65

46.00

(0.35)

4.10

109.0%

46.83

2.92

106.2%

Paraguay

4.60

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

4.80

4.80

0.00

(0.20)

95.8%

4.80

(0.20)

95.8%

Major Importers

0.38

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.31

0.35

(0.04)

0.07

122.6%

0.30

0.08

126.7%

China

0.25

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.20

0.25

(0.05)

0.05

125.0%

0.22

0.03

113.6%

European Union - 28

0.10

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.08

0.07

0.01

0.02

125.0%

0.06

0.04

166.7%

Japan

0.00

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.00

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

 

Table 4. World Soybean Import Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Current” 2014/15, and 2013/14

World Soybean Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Imports: New Crop 2015/16     May 2015

Soybean Imports: April 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Imports:               May Less April              

New Crop 2015/16 Imports:                Percent (%)         May 2015 of April 2015

May Soybean Imports: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15          

April Soybean Imports: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

May Less April Soybean  Imports             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Imports             Less Last year’s 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Imports of Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

Soybean Imports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Imports             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Imports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

119.63

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

114.15

114.21

(0.06)

5.48

104.8%

111.25

8.38

107.5%

United States

0.82

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.82

0.82

0.00

0.00

100.0%

1.95

(1.13)

42.1%

Total Foreign

118.81

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

113.33

113.40

(0.07)

5.48

104.8%

109.30

9.51

108.7%

Major Exporters

0.56

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.31

0.31

0.00

0.25

180.6%

0.61

(0.05)

91.8%

Argentina

0.00

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.55

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.30

0.30

0.00

0.25

183.3%

0.61

(0.06)

90.2%

Paraguay

0.01

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

Major Importers

104.15

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

99.69

100.30

(0.61)

4.46

104.5%

96.22

7.93

108.2%

China

77.50

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

73.50

74.00

(0.50)

4.00

105.4%

70.36

7.14

110.1%

European Union - 28

12.80

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

12.75

12.75

0.00

0.05

100.4%

12.99

(0.19)

98.5%

Japan

2.85

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

2.85

2.90

(0.05)

0.00

100.0%

2.89

(0.04)

98.6%

Mexico

4.05

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

4.00

4.05

(0.05)

0.05

101.3%

3.84

0.21

105.5%

 

Table 5. World Soybean Crush Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Current” 2014/15, and 2013/14

World Soybean Crush                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Crush: New Crop 2015/16     May 2015

Soybean Crush: April 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Crush:               May Less April                

New Crop 2015/16 Crush:                Percent (%)         May 2015 of April 2015

May Soybean Crush: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15          

April Soybean Crush: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

May Less April Soybean  Crush for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Crush             Less Last year’s 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Crush of Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

Soybean Crush: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Crush             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Crush       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

266.22

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

254.48

253.99

0.49

11.74

104.6%

240.61

25.61

110.6%

United States

49.67

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

49.12

48.85

0.27

0.55

101.1%

47.19

2.48

105.3%

Total Foreign

216.56

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

205.36

205.13

0.23

11.20

105.5%

193.42

23.14

112.0%

Major Exporters

85.30

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

81.00

80.58

0.42

4.30

105.3%

75.95

9.35

112.3%

Argentina

42.50

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

39.60

39.18

0.42

2.90

107.3%

36.17

6.33

117.5%

Brazil

38.50

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

37.60

37.60

0.00

0.90

102.4%

36.28

2.22

106.1%

Paraguay

4.10

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

3.60

3.60

0.00

0.50

113.9%

3.35

0.75

122.4%

Major Importers

100.66

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

96.97

97.56

(0.59)

3.69

103.8%

91.35

9.31

110.2%

China

77.10

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

73.85

74.35

(0.50)

3.25

104.4%

68.85

8.25

112.0%

European Union - 28

13.70

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

13.55

13.60

(0.05)

0.15

101.1%

13.40

0.30

102.2%

Japan

1.97

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

1.97

1.97

0.00

0.00

100.0%

1.97

0.00

100.0%

Mexico

4.35

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

4.25

4.25

0.00

0.10

102.4%

4.03

0.32

107.9%

 

Table 6. World Soybean Total Use Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Current” 2014/15, and 2013/14

World Soybean Total Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Total Use: New Crop 2015/16     May 2015

Soybean Total Use: April 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Total Use:               May Less April             

New Crop 2015/16 Total Use:  Percent (%)         May 2015 of April 2015

May Soybean Total Use: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15          

April Soybean Total Use: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

May Less April Soybean  Total Use             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Total Use Less Last year’s 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Total Use of Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

Soybean Total Use: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Total Use             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Total Use of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

304.28

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

291.76

288.92

2.84

12.52

104.3%

274.64

29.64

110.8%

United States

53.19

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

52.83

52.56

0.27

0.36

100.7%

49.85

3.34

106.7%

Total Foreign

251.09

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

238.93

236.36

2.57

12.16

105.1%

224.79

26.30

111.7%

Major Exporters

93.75

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

89.27

86.95

2.32

4.48

105.0%

83.47

10.28

112.3%

Argentina

47.60

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

44.60

42.28

2.32

3.00

106.7%

40.57

7.03

117.3%

Brazil

41.73

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

40.75

40.75

0.00

0.98

102.4%

39.28

2.45

106.2%

Paraguay

4.20

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

3.70

3.79

(0.09)

0.50

113.5%

3.45

0.75

121.7%

Major Importers

118.97

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

114.78

115.25

(0.47)

4.19

103.7%

108.52

10.45

109.6%

China

89.25

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

85.70

86.20

(0.50)

3.55

104.1%

80.30

8.95

111.1%

European Union - 28

14.53

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

14.37

14.28

0.09

0.16

101.1%

14.16

0.37

102.6%

Japan

3.05

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

3.04

3.09

(0.05)

0.01

100.3%

3.05

0.00

100.0%

Mexico

4.39

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

4.29

4.29

0.00

0.10

102.3%

4.07

0.32

107.9%

 

Table 7. World Soybean Ending Stocks Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Current” 2014/15, and 2013/14

World Soybean End Stocks                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean End Stocks: New Crop 2015/16     May 2015

Soybean End Stocks: April 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 End Stocks:               May Less April                  

New Crop 2015/16 End Stocks: Percent (%) May 2015 of April 2015

May Soybean End Stocks: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15          

April Soybean End Stocks: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

May Less April Soybean  End Stocks             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 End Stocks Less Last year’s 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 End Stocks of                         Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

Soybean End Stocks: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 End Stocks Less                     2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 End Stocks of                         2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

96.22

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

85.54

89.55

(4.01)

10.68

112.5%

63.40

32.82

151.8%

United States

13.61

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

9.51

10.06

(0.55)

4.10

143.1%

2.50

11.11

544.4%

Total Foreign

82.61

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

76.03

79.49

(3.46)

6.58

108.7%

60.90

21.71

135.6%

Major Exporters

63.97

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

56.99

60.41

(3.42)

6.98

112.2%

42.68

21.29

149.9%

Argentina

32.85

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

31.95

35.72

(3.77)

0.90

102.8%

26.05

6.80

126.1%

Brazil

31.00

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

24.93

24.58

0.35

6.07

124.3%

16.53

14.47

187.5%

Paraguay

0.10

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.09

0.09

0.00

0.01

111.1%

0.08

0.02

125.0%

Major Importers

15.08

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

15.48

15.39

0.09

(0.40)

97.4%

15.44

(0.36)

97.7%

China

13.88

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

14.38

14.33

0.05

(0.50)

96.5%

14.43

(0.55)

96.2%

European Union - 28

0.34

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.27

0.34

(0.07)

0.07

125.9%

0.28

0.06

121.4%

Japan

0.28

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.26

0.25

0.01

0.02

107.7%

0.23

0.05

121.7%

Mexico

0.20

na

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.18

0.18

0.00

0.02

111.1%

0.12

0.08

166.7%

 

Table 8. World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use Forecasts for “New Crop” 2015/16, “Current” 2014/15, and 2013/14

World Soybean Ending %Stx/Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: New Crop 2015/16     May 2015

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: April 2015 New Crop 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Ending %Stx/Use:               May Less April                    

New Crop 2015/16 Ending %Stx/Use:                Percent (%) May 2015 of April 2015

May Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15          

April Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

May Less April Soybean  Ending %Stx/Use             for 2014/15

New Crop 2015/16 Ending %Stx/Use             Less Last year’s 2014/15

% New Crop 2015/16 Ending %Stx/Use of                         Last Year’s Crop 2014/15

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2015/16 Ending %Stx/Use             Less 2013/14

% New Crop 2015/16 Ending %Stx/Use of                         2013/14