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Soybean Market Outlook in December 2014

December 22, 2014


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on December 10, 2014, U.S. soybean futures market prices moved generally sideways to lower.  Soybean markets will remain sensitive to changes in South American production prospects and U.S. soybean exports through early spring. The next major survey based USDA report addressing U.S. crop production for soybeans and other major crops will be the USDA Annual Crop Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015 along with the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings reports.

USDA & KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA maintained its forecast of record high U.S. soybean production in 2014 of 3.958 billion bushels (bb) – up 600 million bushels (mb) from 3.358 bb in 2013, and 916 mb from 3.042 bb in 2012.  The USDA raised its projection of soybean exports by 40 mb to a new record high of 1.760 billion bushels (bb) – leading to a 40 mb increase in total use up to 3.655 bb, and to a decrease in ending stocks – down to 410 mb.   Percent ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 11.22% - down from 12.45% last month, but up from the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14.  The USDA forecast “current crop” MY 2014/15 prices to be in the range $9.00-$11.00 with a midpoint of $10.00 – down from $13.00 a year ago in MY 2013/14, and from the record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13.  

The USDA’s forecast appears to have a 75% likelihood of occurring, with a 25% prob. of an alternative, “higher use / lower stocks” outcome.   Following is an alternative KSU “Higher Use” Scenario forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15: 25% prob. of 4.065 bb U.S. soybean total supplies (= USDA), 1.797 bb domestic crush (up 1% vs USDA), 1.778 bb exports (up 1% vs USDA), 3.690 bb total use (up 35 mb vs USDA), 375 mb ending stocks (down 35 mb), 10.2% ending %S/U (vs 11.2% for USDA), & $10.50 /bu (vs $10.00 for USDA). 

USDA & KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16: In its 10 year Agricultural Baseline projections through 2024 the USDA projected the following for 2015 and “next crop” MY 2015/16 (with an adjustment by KSU for lower beginning stocks): 84.0 ma planted, 83.1 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 3.820 bb production, 4.245 bb total supplies, 3.766 bb total use, 479 mb ending stocks, 12.72% S/U, and $9.00 /bu price. At this time the key market factor to assess in regards to U.S. soybean production and supply-demand prospects for “next crop” MY 2015/16 is the amount of U.S. soybean acres to be planted in 2015. 

Alternative KSU forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are as follows:  A) KSU “Same Acreage” Scenario: 40% prob. of 84.184 ma planted and 83.403 ma harvested (both same as 2014), trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.761 bb 2015 production, 4.186 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.655 bb total use (same as 2014/15), 531 mb ending stocks (up from 410 mb in 2014/15), 14.53% ending S/U (vs 11.22% in 2014/15), & $9.25 /bu (vs $10.00 /bu in 2014/15); and B) KSU “Up 2 Million Acres” Scenario: 60% prob. of 86.184 ma planted (up 2.0 ma) and 85.382 ma harvested (up 1.979 ma), trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.848 bb 2015 production, 4.273 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.700 bb total use, 573 mb ending stocks (up from 410 mb in 2014/15), 15.49% ending S/U, & $8.75 /bu (vs $10.00 /bu in MY 2014/15 by the USDA);  

World Soybean Supply-Demand: Record high projected World soybean production of 312.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up from 285.3 mmt in MY 2013/14, and from 268.1 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Record high projected World soybean ending stocks of 89.9 mmt (31.4% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 66.6 mmt (24.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and up from 56.3 mmt (21.6 % S/U) in MY 2012/13.  Forecast South American “current crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production that will be harvested in early 2015 is as follows: Brazil (94.0 mmt – up 7.3 mmt from a year earlier), Argentina (55.0 mmt – up 1.0 mmt), and Paraguay (8.5 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), totaling 157.5 mmt (up 8.6 mmt or 5.8% from 148.9 mmt last year). 


I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. Updated Comments on Predominant Soybean Market Trends

The activities of the World soybean market in over the last 3-5 years can be better understood if a person recognizes “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade.  The primary countries involved in these predominant trends have been China on the demand side and South American and the United States on the supply side.

Uptrends in Chinese Soybean Usage & Imports

Chinese soybean domestic use and imports of soybeans have been the key market demand “driver” in World soybean markets in recent years.   Chinese soybean domestic usage has increased from 76.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (29.2% of World use), up to 80.3 mmt in MY 2013/14 (29.5% of World use), and now up to a projected level of 85.9 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (30.0% of World use).  With Chinese domestic production of soybeans of only 11.8-13.05 mmt being much smaller than domestic use over this three year period, China has been forced to rely on sizable amounts of soybean imports to fill domestic use needs.  

Chinese soybean imports were estimated to be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13 (62.4% of World soybean imports), and 70.4 mb in MY 2013/14 (70.4% of the World total), and are projected to be 74.0 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (65.6% of the World total).  Chinese soybean domestic usage and imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 12.8% over last year, and 23.6% over two years ago.

Recent Trends in South American Soybean Production & Exports

There have been two successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean production in MY 2012/13 (139.5 million metric tons (mmt)) and MY 2013/14 (148.9 mmt), with a third successive increase projected from “current crop” MY 2014/15 at 157.5 mmt.  Soybean production from these three key South American countries has amounted to 52.0% of World production in MY 2012/13, 52.2% in MY 2013/14, and is projected to make up 50.4% of the World total in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

South American soybean exports have grown in a manner similar to production over this same period. There have been two successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean exports in MY 2012/13 (55.2 million metric tons (mmt)) and MY 2013/14 (59.1 mmt), with a small decrease projected from “current crop” MY 2014/15 at 58.5 mmt.  Total soybean exports from these three key South American countries as a proportion of World exports has actually trended lower in recent years, amounting to 54.9% of in MY 2012/13, and 52.4% in MY 2013/14, and is projected to make up 50.3% of the World total in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  This short term decline in combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay exports as a proportion of World soybean trade has been offset by increases in United States exports.

Combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean production and exports are projected to be up 12.9% and 6.0%, respectively, over the three most recent marketing years.

Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports

The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this same three period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt in MY 2013/14 (32.0% of World total), and a projected amount of 107.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (34.4% of the World total).  

United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8 mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.7% of World total), and a projected amount of 47.9 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (40.2% of the World total).  

United States’ soybean production and exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 30.1% over last year, and up 33.6% over two years ago.

The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand

It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the historically high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year.  Economists have speculated that Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine industry production problems or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors.  However, the USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 in recent WASDE reports.  If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports were to falter, it could have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices. 

With a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014, cash soybean prices had fell below $9.00 per bushel in late November, but have since moved higher.  Central Kansas Terminal cash bids were in the range of $9.70 ½ - $9.86 ½ on Friday, December 19th.   “Current crop” January 2015 soybean futures closed at $10.30 ½ per bushel that day, with “next year’s crop” November 2015 soybean futures closing at $10.17 ½.    

Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 indicate that a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be harvested in early-mid 2015 will again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in these projected trends in production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market.   The possibility of weather-related production problems in South America during the spring of 2015, or in the United States during the summer-fall of 2015 could impact these trends.  However, until such potential production problems actually occur the World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the foreseeable future.

I-B. December 2014 and Upcoming January 2015 USDA Reports

On December 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its December 2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. soybean production estimates for 2014.  The December 10th Crop Production report focused on U.S. cotton and orange production, with no substantive changes made from the November 10th Crop Production report.  The next major survey based USDA report addressing U.S. crop production for soybeans, corn, other feedgrains, wheat, and other major crops will be the USDA Annual Crop Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015.   On that same day USDA NASS will also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings reports.

Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply-demand and price projections for the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  The “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. soybean marketing year began September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015.  January 10th will also be the day that the USDA WAOB releases the next WASDE report.

I-C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the July 11th USDA Reports

“Current crop” JANUARY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports (Figure 1).  On the day of the report CME JANUARY 2015 futures prices opened at $10.47 ¾ /bu, and traded as high as $10.60 ¼ and as low as $10.27 ¾ during the session, before settling at $10.32 – down $0.17 ¼ for the day.   Since then JANUARY 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a high of $10.55 on December 15th, to a low of $10.15 on December 17th before closing at $10.30 ½ on December 19th.     

Figure 1. JAN 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

“Next crop” NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures contract prices also responded in a negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports (Figure 1).  On the day of the report CME NOVEMBER 2015 futures prices opened at $10.18 /bu, and traded as high as $10.30 and as low as $10.04 ¼ during the session, before settling at $10.09 ½ – down $0.10 ¾ for the day.   Since then NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a high of $10.27 on December 15th, to a low of $9.96 ¼ on December 17th before closing at $10.17 ½ on December 19th.    

I-D. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production

The USDA continued to project that 2014 U.S. soybean planted acreage would be a record high 84.184 million acres (ma), up from 76.840 ma in 2013, 77.198 ma in 2012, and 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 2).   In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage to be a record high 83.403 ma, up from 75.253 ma in 2013, 76.144 ma in 2012, and 73.776 ma in 2011.   The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. soybeans is projected to be 99.1%, down marginally from 99.2% in to 2013, but up from 98.6% in 2012 and 98.3% in 2011. 

The projected 2014 U.S. average soybean yield of 47.5 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, being up from 44.0 bu/ac in 2013, the drought-affected 2012 low yield of 40.0 bu/ac., 42.0 bu/ac in 2011, 43.5 bu/ac in 2010, and the previous record of 44.0 bu/ac in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3).  

Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. soybean production to be a record high 3.958 billion bushels (bb), up from 3.358 bb in 2013, 3.042 bb in 2012, 3.097 bb in 2011, 3.331 bb in 2010, and 3.361 bb in 2009 (Table 1).   

U.S. Soybean Total Supplies

The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are 4.065 bb, resulting from beginning stocks of 92 mb, projected 2014 production of 3.958 bb, and projected imports of 15 mb (Table 1 and Figure 4).   Over the recent period of expansion since 2006 in both corn ethanol production and Chinese soybean import demand, total supplies of U.S. soybeans were 3.655 bb in MY 2006/07 (previous record high), 3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.512 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.495 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.325 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.252 bb in MY 2012/13, and 3.570 bb in  MY 2013/14, and now are projected to be a new record high of 4.065 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

Beginning stocks of 92 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are down from 141 mb in MY 2013/14, 169 mb in MY 2012/13, and 215 mb in MY 2011/12.  This forecast of lower beginning stocks of 92 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the low of 112 mb which occurred in MY 2004/05, and to what was the previous record low since the early 1970s of 103 mb in beginning stocks in MY 1977/78.

Imports of 15 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from the record high of 72 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the 2nd highest amount on record of 41 mb in MY 2012/13.   However, U.S. soybean imports of 15 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 would represent a return to “normal” – being comparable to the range of 10 – 16 mb in U.S. soybean imports for the MY 2007/08 through MY 2011/12 period, and of U.S. soybean imports of less than 10 mb per marketing year going back to at least MY 1980/81.

U.S. Soybean Use by Category & Total Use

Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.780 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 1.734 bb for MY 2013/14, 1.689 bb in MY 2012/13, and from 1.703 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  The record high amount of U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.808 bb occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity-wise with 1.803 bb in MY 2007/08. 

U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.760 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (up 40 mb from November) would be a record high, up from the current estimated high of 1.647 in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  United States’ soybean exports were 1.116 bb in MY 2006/07, followed by 1.159 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.501 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.365 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.317 bb in MY 2012/13, the current record high of 1.647 bb in MY 2013/14, and now the projected new record high of 1.760 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales, as of December 11th, with 15 of 52 weeks (28.9%) of “current crop” MY 2014/15 complete, 904.6 mb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to 51.5% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.760 bb for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).  United States’ export shipments will need to average 23.1 mb per week through the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s December 10th WASDE projection of 1.760 bb.  This compares to U.S. soybean export shipments of 88.6 mb and 69.5 mb which occurred during the weeks ending December 4th and December 12th, respectively.   As a result, U.S. soybean export shipments were “ahead of pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.760 bb in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  However, it is expected that as South American soybean harvest progresses in earnest in early spring 2015 with increased supplies becoming available for export – competing with the U.S. for shipments – that the average weekly pace of U.S. soybean exports will decrease significantly from current levels in a seasonal manner.  

Also as of December 12th an additional 607.6 mb of U.S. soybeans had been sold for future export sales in “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Of course these future sales of U.S. soybeans are subject to the risk of cancellation later prior to actual shipment – especially if a large South American soybean crop comes to fruition in the coming months eand export buyers find lower cost supplies to buy elsewhere.  However, adding together 904.6 mb in actual past shipments plus 607.6 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.512 bb, or 85.9% of the USDA’s 1.760 bb U.S. soybean export target for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the December 10th USDA WASDE report, with only 28.9% (15/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 92 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is down from 98 mb in MY 2013/14, but up from 89 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 90 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  

Residual Use: Forecast residual use of 20 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 0 mb in MY 2013/14, and from 16 mb in MY 2012/13.   

Total U.S. Soybean Use: Projected U.S. total use of 3.655 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (up 40 mb from November) would be a record high (Table 1 and Figure 5).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total U.S. soybean use has been 3.081 bb in MY 2006/07, 3.056 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.047 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.361 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.280 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.155 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.111 bb in MY 2012/13, the current record high of 3.478 bb in MY 2013/14, and now the projected new record high of 3.655 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.   

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

U.S. soybean ending stocks for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 410 mb – down 40 mb from November.  Projected “current crop” MY 2014/15 ending stocks of 410 mb would be the largest amount since 449 mb in MY 2005/06, and 574 mb in MY 2007/08, and compares to 205 mb in MY 2007/08, 138 mb in MY 2008/09, 151 in MY 2009/10, 215 mb in MY 2010/11, 169 mb in MY 2011/12, 141 mb in MY 2012/13, and the record low since at least MY 1980/81 of mb 92 in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 11.22% forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are down from 12.45% in the November WASDE, but still up markedly from the record low of 2.65% now projected by the USDA for  MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 6-7).  Over the last eight (8) years, U.S. soybean % ending stocks-to-use have been 18.62% in MY 2006/07, 6.71% in MY 2007/08, 4.53% in MY 2008/09, 4.49% in MY 2009/10, 6.55% in MY 2010/11, 5.36% in MY 2011/12, 4.53% in MY 2012/13, the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14, and now the projection of 11.22% for “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. average soybean prices for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be $9.00-$11.00 per bushel (midpoint = $10.00) – down sharply from $13.00 /bu in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 6-7).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, U.S. soybean prices have been $6.43 per bushel in MY 2006/07, $10.10 in MY 2007/08, $9.97 in MY 2008/09, $9.59 in MY 2009/10, $11.30 in MY 2010/11, $12.50 in MY 2011/12, a record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13, $13.00 for  MY 2013/14, and now a range midpoint projection of $10.00 / bu in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

I-E. KSU Market Scenario for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15

The USDA is projecting that “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year U.S. soybean prices will be down markedly from the previous few years, in the range of $9.00-$11.00 per bushel (midpoint of $10.00).  An alternative possible market scenario has been developed by Kansas State University (KSU) Extension for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in which usage of soybeans for domestic crushings and exports are higher than USDA projections – resulting in lower ending stocks and marginally higher prices. 

In these projections, a 75% probability is assigned to the USDA forecast of U.S. soybean prices averaging near $10.00 per bushel for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (in the range of $9.00-$11.00 per acre), and an additional 25% probability of prices averaging near $10.50 per bushel in these KSU projections (range of $9.50-$11.50) (Table 1 and Figure 6).  This alternative market scenario developed by assumes that usage of soybeans for domestic crushings, exports, and total use are 1% higher than USDA projections – resulting in lower ending stocks and marginally higher prices.   

KSU “Higher Use” MY 2014/15 Scenario – 3.690 bb Total Use, 10.2% S/U, $10.50 /bu – 25% Probability

It is estimated there is a “2.5 out of 10” or 25% chance of U.S. soybean “current crop” MY 2014/15 total supplies being 4.065 bb - the same as projected by the USDA, but with higher domestic crushings, exports, and total use than the USDA projection.  With domestic crushings of 1.797 bb (up 1% from 1.780 bb projected by the USDA), exports of 1.778 bb (up 1% from 1.760 bb projected by the USDA), and total use of 3.690 bb (up 1% from 3.655 bb projected by the USDA), ending stocks of U.S. soybeans would be 375 mb (down from 410 mb projected by the USDA). 

Percent ending stocks-to-use would fall to 10.16% - down from the USDA’s current projection of 11.22%.  U.S. soybean average prices would be in the range of $10.50-$11.50 per bushel for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $10.50) – up $0.50 /bu from the USDA’s current forecast range of $9.00-$11.00 per bushel (Table 1 and Figures 6-7). 

I-F. USDA Market Scenario for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

The USDA released its preliminary projections for U.S. soybean supply-demand and prices on Thursday, December 18th in the form of supporting tables for the Long-term Agricultural Projections through 2024 (http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm).   After adjusting for updated beginning stocks estimates of 410 mb in the December WASDE instead of the USDA’s 450 mb estimate taken from the November WASDE report (i.e., less 40 mb in total supplies for “next crop” MY 2015/16), the results of these projections are given in Table 1

In summary, for “next crop” MY 2015/16, the USDA projects 84.0 ma planted, 83.1 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 3.820 bb production, 3.766 bb total use, an adjusted estimate of 479 mb in ending stocks (less the 40 mb adjustment in beginning stocks), and 12.7% ending stocks-to-use (adjusted by KSU from 13.8% by the USDA), the adjusted forecast of U.S. soybean prices in “next crop” MY 2015/16 is $9.00 per bushel (up from the USDA’s initial estimate of $8.50) (Table 1)

I-G. KSU Market Scenario for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

Two alternative market scenarios have been developed by Kansas State University (KSU) Extension for “next crop” MY 2015/16 for comparison to USDA projections (see the previous section).    

Scenario #1: KSU “Same Acreage / Trend Yield” “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 Scenario – 14.5% S/U, $9.25 /bu – 40% Probability

For “next crop” MY 2015/16, it is estimated in this KSU projection that there is a “4 out of 10” or 40% chance of 2015 U.S. soybean “next crop” planted acreage of 84.148 ma with harvested acreage of 83.403 ma (both unchanged from 2014), trend yields of 45.1 bu/ac, 2015 production of 3.761 bb, total supplies being 4.186 bb, total use of 3.655 bb, and ending stocks of 531 mb. 

Percent ending stocks-to-use would rise to 14.53%, with U.S. soybean average prices in the range of $8.25-$10.25 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2015/16 with a midpoint = $9.25 (Table 1 and Figures 6-7). 

Scenario #2: KSU “Plus 2 Million Planted Acres / Trend Yield” “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 Scenario – 14.5% S/U, $9.25 /bu – 60% Probability

In this second KSU scenario “next crop” MY 2015/16, it is estimated in this KSU projection that there is a “6 out of 10” or 60% chance of 2015 U.S. soybean “next crop” planted acreage of 86.148 ma (up 2 million acres from 2014), with harvested acreage of 83.403 ma (up 1.979 ma from 2014), trend yields of 45.1 bu/ac, 2015 production of 3.848 bb, total supplies being 4.273 bb, total use of 3.700 bb, and ending stocks of 573 mb. 

Percent ending stocks-to-use would rise even further to 15.49%, with U.S. soybean average prices in the range of $7.75-$9.75 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2015/16 with a midpoint = $8.75 (Table 1 and Figures 6-7). 

II. World Soybean Supply-Demand Trends

World soybean production is projected to increase 9.6% in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year over MY 2013/14, and to be up 16.7% over MY 2012/13.  With a forecast increase in available World soybean total supplies in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (379.4 mmt, up 11.1% from 341.6 mmt a year ago, and up 18.0% from 321.5 mmt two years ago), World soybean total use is also projected to increase by 4.9% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 over MY 2013/14 and by 9.8% over MY 2012/13.

Since early 2013 U.S. soybean markets have been driven by several key factors, including a) record large 2013 and 2014 South American soybean crops and total supplies – albeit with logistical shipping problems in Brazilian ports in mid-2013, b) a historically large 2013 U.S. soybean – followed in 2014 by a record U.S. soybean crop, and c) ongoing strength of World soybean and soybean product import demand from China and other countries.  With a record large 2014 U.S. soybean crop now harvested, and prospects for another record large 2015 crop in South America, it is likely that World supplies will grow further relative to demand, and that World soybean prices will fall to their lowest levels in several years.

II-A. World Soybean Production by Country / Region

Projected World soybean production of 312.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, up 27.5 mmt (9.6%) from 285.3 mmt for MY 2013/14, 268.1 mmt in MY 2012/13; the recent low of 239.8 mmt in MY 2011/12; and the range of 211.9-263.9 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 8).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean production is projected to be 205.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 5.8% from 193.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 10.7% from 185.3 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major soybean producing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 and 2013/14 marketing years, along with MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases are projected in all major producing countries or regions in “current crop” MY 2014/15 except for China.  

In “current crop” MY 2014/15, the United States (107.7 mmt – up 16.3 mmt for the year) is projected to be the largest World producer of soybeans, followed by Brazil (94.0 mmt – up 7.3 mmt from the MY 2013/14’s record high of 86.7 mmt), Argentina (55.0 mmt – up 1.0 mmt), China (11.8 mmt – down 0.4 mmt), Paraguay (8.5 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), and the European Union (1.58 mmt – up 0.35 mmt).

II-B. World Soybean Exports by Country / Region

Global soybean exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 116.2 mmt, up 3.0% from 112.8 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 15.6% from 100.5 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3 and Figure 8).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean exports are projected to be 68.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 0.5% from 68.0 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 5.6% from 64.7 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major soybean exporting countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, and also for MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, with a marginal increases for Argentina and Paraguary, and a decline for Brazil. 

The largest projected exporter of soybeans in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is the United States (47.9 mmt – up 3.08 mmt vs last year), Brazil (46.0 mmt – up 0.83 mmt from a year ago), followed by the Argentina (8.0 mmt – up 0.16 mmt), and Paraguay (4.5 mmt – up 0.12 mmt).

II-C. World Soybean Imports by Country / Region

Global soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 112.8 mmt, up 3.3% from 110.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 17.0% from 95.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean imports are projected to be 112.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.6% from 108.5 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 18.5% from 94.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major soybean importing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the China, and Mexico, with decreased imports projected for the United States, and the European Union.  Marginal-to-no change is projected for Japan.  

China is projected to be the largest World soybean importer, with “current crop” MY 2014/15 soybean imports increasing to 74.0 mmt – up 3.6 mmt from a year ago.  China is followed by the European Union (12.75 mmt – down 0.21 mmt), Mexico (3.95 mmt – up 0.25 mmt), and Japan (2.9 mmt – up 0.01 mmt). 

II-D. World Soybean Domestic Crush by Country / Region

Global soybean domestic crush in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a 251.9 mmt, up 5.0% from 239.8 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 9.7% from 229.6 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean domestic crush is projected to be 203.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 5.7% from 192.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 10.8% from 183.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean domestic crush in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in domestic soybean crush usage in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for nearly all major importing and exporting countries except for the European Union (no change) and Japan (up only marginally). 

China (73.5 mmt – up 5.65 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans for domestic crushing in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (48.4 mmt – up 1.25 mmt), Argentina (38.1 mmt – up 1.9 mmt), Brazil (37.6 mmt – up 1.3 mmt), the European Union (12.8 mmt – unchanged), Mexico (4.2 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), Paraguay (3.6 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), and Japan (1.97 mmt – up 0.03 mmt).  

II-E. World Soybean Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean total use of 286.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is a record high, up 4.9% from the previous record of 272.6 mmt for MY 2013/14, up 9.8% from 260.5 mmt in MY 2012/13; and up from the range of 221.5-257.9 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 6 and Figure 8).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean total use is projected to be 233.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 5.4% from 221.9 mmt in  MY 2013/14, and up 16.7% from 200.3 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of soybean total use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean total use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for all major producing and using countries except Japan – for which a small marginal increase is forecast. 

China (85.9 mmt – up 5.6 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (51.6 mmt – up 1.7 mmt), Argentina (41.2 mmt – up 2.2 mmt), Brazil (40.8 mmt – up 1.5 mmt), the European Union (13.8 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), Mexico (4.2 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), Paraguay (3.8 mmt – up 0.15 mmt), and Japan (3.1 mmt, up 0.02 mmt). 

II-F. World Soybean Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World soybean ending stocks of 89.9 mmt for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up 35.0% from 66.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 59.7% from 56.3 mmt in MY 2012/13, and above the range of 43.0-70.2 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 8).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks are projected to be 78.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 22.8% from 64.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 50.0% from 52.5 mmt in MY 2012/13.

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean ending stocks in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and the European Union, and Mexico, with only a marginal increase for Japan, and no change for Mexico.  Ending stocks in China are projected to decrease.

Argentina (34.9 mmt – up 5.9 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the World’s largest holder of soybean ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (24.4 mmt – up 7.9 mmt), China (14.0 mmt – down 0.4 mmt), the United States (11.2 mmt – up 8.7 mmt), the European Union (1.1 mmt – up 0.4 mmt), Paraguay (0.45 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), Japan (0.27 mmt – up 0.04 mmt), and Mexico (0.12 mmt – unchanged). 

II-G. World Soybean % Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Forecast World soybean percent ending stocks-to-use of 31.4% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 represents a record high (going back at least 51 years to MY 1964/65), being up from 24.4% in  MY 2013/14, and 21.6% in MY 2012/13, and is comparable to 22.3% in MY 2011/12, 26.6% in MY 2010/11, 23.4% in MY 2009/10, 20.3% in MY 2008/09, and 24.0% in MY 2007/08 (Table 8).  The minimum level of World soybean % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1960s occurred in MY 1976/77 (6.9% S/U), MY 1996/97 (11.8% S/U), and MY 1978/79 (12.6% S/U).  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 20.3% in MY 2008/09 is the lowest since 19.3% in MY 2001/02.  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 26.0% in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up from 22.0% in MY 2013/14, and up from 19.0% in MY 2012/13.

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean percent ending stocks-to-use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, the European Union, and Japan, with decreased ending stocks projected for China and Mexico. 

Argentina (70.9% S/U – up from 62.0% a year ago) is projected to be the largest World holder of soybeans in terms of ending stocks-to-use in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (28.1% – up from 20.2%), China (16.3% – down from 17.9%), the United States (11.2% – up from 2.65%), Japan (8.8% – up from 7.5%), the European Union (7.8% – up from 4.9%), Paraguay (5.4% – up from 2.9%), and Mexico (2.8% – down from 3.0%). 

Table 1. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2009/10 through KSU Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

  (December 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report + KSU Projections for the “next crop” 2015/16 marketing year)

Item

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

 

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

KSU 2014/15

Higher Usage

USDA

(KSU Adj.*) 2015/16

KSU 2015/16

No Change in Acreage

KSU 2014/15

+ 2 million Acres 

Percent Probability

 

 

 

 

 

75%

25%

 

40%

60%

Planted Area (million acres)

77.451

77.404

75.046

77.198

76.840

84.184

84.184

84.0

84.184

ñ2 ma 86.184

Harvested Area (million acres)

76.372

76.610

73.776

76.144

76.253

83.403

83.403

83.1

83.403

ñ2 ma 85.382

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.61%

98.97%

98.31%

98.63%

99.24%

99.07%

99.07%

98.93%

99.07%

99.07%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

44.0

43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5

47.5

46.0

 Trend 45.1

Trend 45.1

 

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks

138

151

215

169

141

92

92

*410

410

410

Production

3,361

3,331

3,097

3,042

3,358

3,958

3,958

3,820

3,761

3,848

Imports

15

14

16

41

72

15

15

15

15

15

Total Supply

3,512

3,495

3,325

3,252

3,570

4,065

4,065

*4,245

4,186

4,273

 

Domestic Crushings

1,752

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,734

1,780

 ñ1% 1,797

 1,835

1,780

1,800

Exports

1,499

1,501

1,365

1,317

1,647

1,760

ñ1% 1,778

1,820

1,760

1,780

Seed

90

87

90

89

98

92

92

*91

92

92

Residual

20

43

-2

16

0

23

23

*20

23

23

Total Use

3,361

3,280

3,155

3,111

3,478

3,655

ñ1% 3,690

3,766

3,655

3,700

 

Ending Stocks

151

215

169

141

92

410

375

*479

531

573

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.49%

6.55%

5.36%

4.53%

2.65%

11.22%

10.16%

*12.72%

14.53%

15.49%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$9.59

 

$11.30

$12.50

$14.40

$13.00

$9.00-$11.00

($10.00)

$9.50-$11.50

($10.50)

*$9.00

$8.25-$10.25

($9.25)

$7.75-

$9.75

($8.75)

Figure 2. U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage (2004-2014) with 2015 Projections

Figure 3. U.S. Soybean Yield Trend (1973-2014) and KSU 2014 Projections

Text Box: 2015 Trend Yield = 45.1 (1973-2014 Series)
43.5 bu/ac

Figure 4. U.S. Soybean Total Supplies since MY 2004/15 (December 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Figure 5. Trends in U.S. Soybean Use and Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 - “current crop” MY 2014/15 Plus KSU 2014/15 Projections
(December 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Figure 6. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 – “current crop” 2014/15                   
December 10th USDA WASDE with KSU projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15

Figure 7. U.S. Soybean Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “current crop” MY 2014/15)

Text Box: KSU “Higher Use” MY 2014/15 
(25% prob.KSU est.)
10.6% S/U
 $10.50/bu

Text Box: KSU “Higher Use” MY 2014/15
10.6% S/U
 $9.75 /bu

Text Box: USDA “Next Crop” MY 2014/15 (75% prob.KSU est.)
11.2% S/U @ $10.00 /bu
Text Box: 2011/12

Figure 8. World Soybean Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “current crop” MY 2014/15                     
(December 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: Soybean 
End Stocks
89.9 mmt in MY 2014/15
 
43-70 mmt
during 2007/08 through 2013/14 period
 
Text Box: Soybean Usage
ñ10.8 mmt/yr (+4.9%/yr) since 2008/09
Text Box: Soybean Production
ñ16.8 mmt/yr (+7.9%/yr) since 2008/09
 
Text Box: Soybean Trade
116.2 mmt in     MY 2014/15 is ñ6.5 mmt/yr (+8.4%/yr) since 2008/09

 

Table 2. World Soybean Production Forecasts for “current crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Production: New Crop 2014/15     December 2014

Soybean Production: November 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production:               December Less November                

New Crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         December of November 2014

December Soybean Production: Old crop 2013/14          

November Soybean Production: Old crop 2013/14

December Less November Soybean  Production             for 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Production of                         Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

312.81

312.06

0.75

100.2%

285.30

285.01

0.29

27.51

109.6%

268.06

44.75

116.7%

United States

107.73

107.73

0.00

100.0%

91.39

91.39

0.00

16.34

117.9%

82.79

24.94

130.1%

Total Foreign

205.08

204.33

0.75

100.4%

193.91

193.62

0.29

11.17

105.8%

185.27

19.81

110.7%

Major Exporters

160.90

160.60

0.30

100.2%

152.40

152.30

0.10

8.50

105.6%

143.15

17.75

112.4%

Argentina

55.00

55.00

0.00

100.0%

54.00

54.00

0.00

1.00

101.9%

49.30

5.70

111.6%

Brazil

94.00

94.00

0.00

100.0%

86.70

86.70

0.00

7.30

108.4%

82.00

12.00

114.6%

Paraguay

8.50

8.20

0.30

103.7%

8.20

8.10

0.10

0.30

103.7%

8.20

0.30

103.7%

Major Importers

14.75

14.75

0.00

100.0%

14.78

14.75

0.03

(0.03)

99.8%

15.33

(0.58)

96.2%

China

11.80

11.80

0.00

100.0%

12.20

12.20

0.00

(0.40)

96.7%

13.05

(1.25)

90.4%

EU - 28 Countries

1.58

1.58

0.00

100.0%

1.23

1.23

0.00

0.35

128.5%

0.95

0.63

166.3%

Japan

0.21

0.21

0.00

100.0%

0.20

0.20

0.00

0.01

105.0%

0.24

(0.03)

87.5%

Mexico

0.29

0.29

0.00

100.0%

0.25

0.25

0.00

0.04

116.0%

0.25

0.04

116.0%

 

Table 3. World Soybean Export Forecasts for “current crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Exports: New Crop 2014/15     December 2014

Soybean Exports: November 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:               December Less November          

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         December of November 2014

December Soybean Exports: Old crop 2013/14          

November Soybean Exports: Old crop 2013/14

December Less November Soybean  Exports             for 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports of Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

116.22

115.54

0.68

100.6%

112.83

112.73

0.10

3.39

103.0%

100.54

15.68

115.6%

United States

47.90

46.81

1.09

102.3%

44.82

44.82

0.00

3.08

106.9%

35.85

12.05

133.6%

Total Foreign

68.33

68.73

(0.40)

99.4%

68.01

67.91

0.10

0.32

100.5%

64.69

3.64

105.6%

Major Exporters

61.70

62.40

(0.70)

98.9%

62.41

62.31

0.10

(0.71)

98.9%

58.69

3.01

105.1%

Argentina

8.00

8.20

(0.20)

97.6%

7.84

7.84

0.00

0.16

102.0%

7.74

0.26

103.4%

Brazil

46.00

46.70

(0.70)

98.5%

46.83

46.83

0.00

(0.83)

98.2%

41.90

4.10

109.8%

Paraguay

4.52

4.32

0.20

104.6%

4.40

4.30

0.10

0.12

102.7%

5.52

(1.00)

81.9%

Major Importers

0.39

0.39

0.00

100.0%

0.29

0.29

0.00

0.10

134.5%

0.38

0.01

102.6%

China

0.30

0.30

0.00

100.0%

0.22

0.22

0.00

0.08

136.4%

0.27

0.03

111.1%

EU - 28 Countries

0.07

0.07

0.00

100.0%

0.06

0.06

0.00

0.01

116.7%

0.09

(0.02)

77.8%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

 

Table 4. World Soybean Import Forecasts for “current crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Imports: New Crop 2014/15     December 2014

Soybean Imports: November 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:               December Less November              

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         December of November 2014

December Soybean Imports: Old crop 2013/14          

November Soybean Imports: Old crop 2013/14

December Less November Soybean  Imports             for 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports of Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

112.77

112.72

0.05

100.0%

110.44

110.29

0.15

2.33

102.1%

95.89

16.88

117.6%

United States

0.41

0.41

0.00

100.0%

1.95

1.95

0.00

(1.54)

21.0%

1.10

(0.69)

37.3%

Total Foreign

112.36

112.31

0.05

100.0%

108.49

108.34

0.15

3.87

103.6%

94.79

17.57

118.5%

Major Exporters

0.63

0.63

0.00

100.0%

0.63

0.63

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.42

0.21

150.0%

Argentina

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.60

0.60

0.00

100.0%

0.61

0.60

0.01

(0.01)

98.4%

0.40

0.20

150.0%

Paraguay

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.00

100.0%

Major Importers

100.15

100.10

0.05

100.0%

95.89

95.74

0.15

4.26

104.4%

84.23

15.92

118.9%

China

74.00

74.00

0.00

100.0%

70.36

70.36

0.00

3.64

105.2%

59.87

14.13

123.6%

EU - 28 Countries

12.75

12.75

0.00

100.0%

12.95

12.95

0.00

(0.20)

98.5%

12.54

0.21

101.7%

Japan

2.90

2.90

0.00

100.0%

2.89

2.89

0.00

0.01

100.3%

2.83

0.07

102.5%

Mexico

3.95

3.95

0.00

100.0%

3.70

3.70

0.00

0.25

106.8%

3.41

0.54

115.8%

 

Table 5. World Soybean Crush Forecasts for “current crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Crush                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Crush: New Crop 2014/15     December 2014

Soybean Crush: November 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Crush:               December Less November                

New Crop 2014/15 Crush:                Percent (%)         December of November 2014

December Soybean Crush: Old crop 2013/14          

November Soybean Crush: Old crop 2013/14

December Less November Soybean  Crush for 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Crush             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Crush of Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Crush: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Crush             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Crush       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

251.87

251.92

(0.05)

100.0%

239.83

239.55

0.28

12.04

105.0%

229.60

22.27

109.7%

United States

48.44

48.44

0.00

100.0%

47.19

47.19

0.00

1.25

102.6%

45.97

2.47

105.4%

Total Foreign

203.42

203.47

(0.05)

100.0%

192.36

192.36

0.00

11.06

105.7%

183.63

19.79

110.8%

Major Exporters

79.45

79.45

0.00

100.0%

76.10

75.83

0.27

3.35

104.4%

71.90

7.55

110.5%

Argentina

38.05

38.05

0.00

100.0%

36.18

36.18

0.00

1.87

105.2%

33.61

4.44

113.2%

Brazil

37.60

37.60

0.00

100.0%

36.28

36.00

0.28

1.32

103.6%

35.24

2.36

106.7%

Paraguay

3.60

3.60

0.00

100.0%

3.50

3.50

0.00

0.10

102.9%

2.95

0.65

122.0%

Major Importers

96.87

96.87

0.00

100.0%

90.55

90.55

0.00

6.32

107.0%

86.14

10.73

112.5%

China

74.50

74.50

0.00

100.0%

68.85

68.85

0.00

5.65

108.2%

64.95

9.55

114.7%

EU - 28 Countries

12.80

12.80

0.00

100.0%

12.80

12.50

0.30

0.00

100.0%

12.74

0.06

100.5%

Japan

1.97

1.97

0.00

100.0%

1.94

1.94

0.00

0.03

101.5%

1.92

0.05

102.6%

Mexico

4.20

4.20

0.00

100.0%

3.90

3.90

0.00

0.30

107.7%

3.65

0.55

115.1%

 

Table 6. World Soybean Total Use Forecasts for “current crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Total Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Total Use: New Crop 2014/15     December 2014

Soybean Total Use: November 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use:               December Less November             

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use:  Percent (%)         December of November 2014

December Soybean Total Use: Old crop 2013/14          

November Soybean Total Use: Old crop 2013/14

December Less November Soybean  Total Use             for 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Total Use of Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Total Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Total Use of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

286.07

285.82

0.25

100.1%

272.62

272.00

0.62

13.45

104.9%

260.53

25.54

109.8%

United States

51.57

51.57

0.00

100.0%

49.85

49.85

0.00

1.72

103.5%

48.83

2.74

105.6%

Total Foreign

234.49

234.24

0.25

100.1%

222.77

222.15

0.62

11.72

105.3%

211.70

22.79

110.8%

Major Exporters

85.91

85.86

0.05

100.1%

82.05

81.78

0.27

3.86

104.7%

77.39

8.52

111.0%

Argentina

41.15

41.15

0.00

100.0%

38.97

38.97

0.00

2.18

105.6%

36.05

5.10

114.1%

Brazil

40.75

40.75

0.00

100.0%

39.28

39.00

0.28

1.47

103.7%

38.19

2.56

106.7%

Paraguay

3.79

3.74

0.05

101.3%

3.64

3.64

0.00

0.15

104.1%

3.03

0.76

125.1%

Major Importers

114.34

114.29

0.05

100.0%

107.89

107.71

0.18

6.45

106.0%

102.90

11.44

111.1%

China

85.90

85.90

0.00

100.0%

80.30

80.30

0.00

5.60

107.0%

76.18

9.72

112.8%

EU - 28 Countries

13.83

13.83

0.00

100.0%

13.73

13.43

0.30

0.10

100.7%

13.65

0.18

101.3%

Japan

3.07

3.07

0.00

100.0%

3.05

3.05

0.00

0.02

100.7%

3.01

0.06

102.0%

Mexico

4.24

4.24

0.00

100.0%

3.94

3.94

0.00

0.30

107.6%

3.69

0.55

114.9%

 

Table 7. World Soybean Ending Stocks Forecasts for “current crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean End Stocks                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean End Stocks: New Crop 2014/15     December 2014

Soybean End Stocks: November 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks:               December Less November                  

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks: Percent (%) December of November 2014

December Soybean End Stocks: Old crop 2013/14          

November Soybean End Stocks: Old crop 2013/14

December Less November Soybean  End Stocks             for 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks of                         Old crop 2013/14

Soybean End Stocks: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks Less                     2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks of                         2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

89.87

90.28

(0.41)

99.5%

66.58

66.85

(0.27)

23.29

135.0%

56.28

33.59

159.7%

United States

11.16

12.25

(1.09)

91.1%

2.50

2.50

0.00

8.66

446.4%

3.83

7.33

291.4%

Total Foreign

78.70

78.03

0.67

100.9%

64.08

64.35

(0.27)

14.62

122.8%

52.46

26.24

150.0%

Major Exporters

59.70

59.02

0.68

101.2%

45.78

46.05

(0.27)

13.92

130.4%

37.21

22.49

160.4%

Argentina

34.85

34.95

(0.10)

99.7%

29.00

29.00

0.00

5.85

120.2%

21.81

13.04

159.8%

Brazil

24.38

23.95

0.43

101.8%

16.53

16.80

(0.27)

7.85

147.5%

15.33

9.05

159.0%

Paraguay

0.45

0.40

0.05

112.5%

0.23

0.23

0.00

0.22

195.7%

0.04

0.41

1125.0%

Major Importers

15.93

15.93

0.00

100.0%

15.76

15.76

0.00

0.17

101.1%

13.27

2.66

120.0%

China

14.03

14.03

0.00

100.0%

14.43

14.43

0.00

(0.40)

97.2%

12.38

1.65

113.3%

EU - 28 Countries

1.09

1.09

0.00

100.0%

0.67

0.67

0.00

0.42

162.7%

0.28

0.81

389.3%

Japan

0.27

0.27

0.00

100.0%

0.23

0.23

0.00

0.04

117.4%

0.18

0.09

150.0%

Mexico

0.12

0.12

0.00

100.0%

0.12

0.12

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.10

0.02

120.0%

 

Table 8. World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use Forecasts for “current crop” MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Ending %Stx/Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: New Crop 2014/15     December 2014

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: November 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use:               December Less November                    

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use:                Percent (%) December of November 2014

December Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Old crop 2013/14          

November Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Old crop 2013/14

December Less November Soybean  Ending %Stx/Use             for 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use of                         Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use of                         2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

31.4%

31.6%

-0.2%

99.5%

24.4%

24.6%

-0.2%

7.0%

128.6%

21.6%

9.8%

145.4%

United States

11.2%

23.8%

-12.5%

47.2%

2.6%

2.6%

0.0%

8.6%

424.9%

4.5%

6.7%

248.1%

Total Foreign

26.0%

33.3%

-7.3%

78.0%

22.0%

22.2%

-0.1%

4.0%

117.9%

19.0%

7.0%

136.9%

Major Exporters

40.4%

68.7%

-28.3%

58.8%

31.7%

32.0%

-0.3%

8.8%

127.6%

27.3%

13.1%

147.9%

Argentina

70.9%

84.9%

-14.0%

83.5%

62.0%

62.0%

0.0%

9.0%

114.5%

49.8%

21.1%

142.4%

Brazil

28.1%

58.8%

-30.7%

47.8%

19.2%

19.6%

-0.4%

8.9%

146.4%

19.1%

9.0%

146.8%

Paraguay

5.4%

10.7%

-5.3%

50.6%

2.9%

2.9%

0.0%

2.6%

189.3%

0.5%

4.9%

1157.5%

Major Importers

13.9%

13.9%

-0.1%

99.6%

14.6%

14.6%

0.0%

-0.7%

95.3%

12.8%

1.0%

108.1%

China

16.3%

16.3%

-0.1%

99.7%

17.9%

17.9%

0.0%

-1.6%

90.8%

16.2%

0.1%

100.5%

EU - 28 Countries

7.8%

7.9%

0.0%

99.5%

4.9%

5.0%

-0.1%

3.0%

161.4%

2.0%

5.8%

384.8%

Japan

8.8%

8.8%

0.0%

100.0%

7.5%

7.5%

0.0%

1.3%

116.6%

6.0%

2.8%

147.1%

Mexico

2.8%

2.8%

0.0%