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Soybean Market Outlook in Late September 2014

September 29, 2014


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Thursday, September 11, 2014, U.S. soybean market prices have responded by moving sharply lower in anticipation of a record large U.S. soybean crop and near record large U.S. soybean supply-demand balances in Fall 2014.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA forecast record high U.S. soybean production in 2014 of 3.913 billion bushels (bb) – up 624 million bushels (mb) from 3.289 bb in 2013, and up 554 mb from the previous record high of 3.359 bb in 2009.  This USDA forecast 2014 U.S. soybean production of 3.913 bb is based on record high planted acres (84.839 million acres or ‘ma’), harvested acres (84.058 ma), and yields (46.6 ma) acres – figures that are still uncertain to some degree and subject to change in upcoming USDA Crop Production reports.  In the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year which began on Sept. 1, 2014, U.S. soybean total supplies were forecast to be a record high 4.058 bb – up 549 mb from “old crop” MY 2013/14. 

Domestic crush was projected to be 1.770 bb – up 40 mb from a year ago, while exports were forecast to be a record high 1.700 bb, up from the old record of 1.645 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14.  Forecast “new crop” 2014/15 ending stocks were raised to 474 mb (the high since 574 mb in MY 2006/07), while % ending stocks-to-use were projected to be 13.3% - up from 12.1% in August, and from the record low of 3.85% in “old crop” MY 2013/14.  The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2014/15 average soybean prices to be in the range $9.00-$11.00 with a midpoint of $10.00 – down $0.35 /bu from August.  The USDA will update their supply-demand, and price projections in its October, November, and January Crop Production and WASDE reports.

KSU U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are as follows:  a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 65% prob. of 83.589 ma planted, 82.812 ma harvested, 45.0 bu/ac yield, 3.727 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.872 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.707 bb crush, 1.639 bb exports, 3.448 bb total use, 424 mb ending stocks, 12.3% S/U, & $10.75 /bu;  b) “High Production” Scenario: 20% prob. – essentially equal to the USDA forecast of 3.913 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 475 mb ending stocks, 13.3% S/U, & $10.00 /bu, and c) “Low Production” Scenario: 15% prob. of 82.339 ma planted, 81.573 ma harvested, lower yields of 43.5 bu/ac, a 3.548 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.698 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.648 bb crush, 1.583 bb exports, 3.333 bb total use, 365 mb ending stocks, 10.95% S/U, & $11.75 /bu. 

World Soybean Supply-Demand: Record high projected World soybean production of 311.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up from 283.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 267.8 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Record high projected World soybean ending stocks of 90.2 mmt (31.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 66.9 mmt (24.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 56.8 mmt (21.9 % S/U) in MY 2012/13.  Forecast South American “new crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production that will be harvested in early 2015 for major U.S. World export competitors Brazil (94.0 mmt – up 7.3 mmt from a year earlier) and Argentina (55.0 mmt – up 1.0 mmt) is projected to be up a combined 8.3 mmt or 5.9% from MY 2013/14. 

World & U.S. Soybean Market Trends: If this forecast of “new crop” MY 2014/15 soybeans from South America comes to fruition along with the record large 2014 U.S. soybean production, then World soybean supply-demand balances are likely to grow to burdensomely high levels (as is now projected), with U.S. soybean prices dropping sharply down to or below MY 2008/09 and MY 2009/10, i.e., down to or below $9.97 and $9.59 per bushel, respectively.  The possibility of weather-related production problems in South America during the spring of 2015, or in the United States during the summer-fall of 2015 could impact these trends, but until such issues surface the soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the foreseeable future.


I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook

IA. Comments on Predominant Soybean Market Trends

The World soybean market can be characterized by recent “predominant trends” in production and export trade.  The primary countries involved in these predominant trends have been China on the demand side and both a group of South American countries and the United States and on the supply side.

Uptrends in Chinese Soybean Usage & Imports

Chinese soybean domestic use and imports of soybeans have been the key market demand “driver” over in recent years.   Chinese soybean domestic usage has increased from 76.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (29.3% of World use) to 80.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (29.8% of World use), to a projected level of 85.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (29.8% of World use).  With Chinese domestic production of soybeans of only 12.0-13.1 mmt over this three year period being much smaller than domestic use, China has been forced to rely on sizable amounts of soybean imports to fill domestic use needs.  

Chinese soybean imports were estimated to be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13 (62.4% of World soybean imports), and 69.0 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (63.4% of the World total), and are projected to be 74.0 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (65.8% of the World total).  Chinese soybean domestic usage and imports are projected to be up 11.5% and 23.6% over the three most recent marketing years.

Uptrends in South American Soybean Production & Exports

There have been two successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean production in MY 2012/13 (139.5 million metric tons (mmt)) and “old crop” MY 2013/14 (148.8 mmt), with a third successive increase projected from “new crop” MY 2014/15 at 157.2 mmt.  Soybean production from these three key South American countries has amounted to 52.1% of World production in MY 2012/13, 52.6% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and is projected to make up 47.8% of the World total in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

South American soybean exports have grown in a manner similar to production over this same period. There have been two successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean exports in MY 2012/13 (55.2 million metric tons (mmt)) and “old crop” MY 2013/14 (59.2 mmt), with a third successive increase projected from “new crop” MY 2014/15 at 59.5 mmt.  Soybean exports from these three key South American countries has amounted to 54.9% of World exports in MY 2012/13, and 52.4% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and is projected to make up 51.5% of the World total in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

Combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean production and exports are projected to be up 12.7% and 7.9% over the three most recent marketing years.

Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports

The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this same three period, with 82.6 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 89.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (31.6% of World total), and a projected amount of 106.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (34.2% of the World total).  

United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (39.6% of World total), and a projected amount of 46.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (40.1% of the World total).  

United States’ soybean production and exports are projected to be up 29.0% and 29.1%, respectively, over the three most recent marketing years.

The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand

It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels by the USDA is necessary for continuance of the historicly high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year.  Rumors have surfaced at times in the last year of the possibility of slowing Chinese soybean import demand due to swine industry production problems or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors.  However, given the information available to the USDA at this time, the agency has projected a continuance of the strong growth trend in Chinese imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 in recent WASDE reports – even raising the Chinese import forecast by 1 mmt in the September 11th WASDE report.  If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports were to falter for whatever reason, it could have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices. 

Now with an anticipated record large fall harvest of soybeans approaching in the United States, cash soybean prices have fallen below $9.00 per bushel – with Central Kansas Terminal cash bids in the range of $8.47 ¾ - $8.78 ¾ on Thursday, September 25th.   “New crop” November 2014 soybean futures closed at $9.14 per bushel on Friday, September 26th, with “next year’s crop” November 2015 soybean futures closing at $9.36 ½ on the same day.    

Given that the USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15 indicate that a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be harvested in early-mid 2015 will be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in these projected trends in the broader World soybean market.   The possibility of weather-related production problems in South America during the spring of 2015, or in the United States during the summer-fall of 2015 could impact these trends, but until such issues surface the soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the foreseeable future.

I-B. September 2014 USDA Reports

On September 11, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its September  2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. soybean production estimates for 2014.  The September Crop Production report was based on farmer surveys and objective field plot measurement information gathered during the August 25th through September 5th period.   Approximately 12,000 producers were interview during the survey period with inquiries made about probable soybean yield.  The objective yield surveys were conducted in major producing states accounting for 75 percent of U.S. soybean production in recent years.  From its objective yield field surveys, the USDA reported soybean pods with beans per 18 square feed in the report, and also calculated implied pod weight (i.e., grams per pod) in its effort to figure soybean production at the state and national level.

On the same day the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its September 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply-demand and price projections for both the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY 2014/15.   The “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.  Information in the upcoming September 30th USDA NASS Quarterly Stocks report will be used in calculating adjustments to “old crop” MY 2013/14 U.S. soybean usage and ending stocks in the October 10th USDA WASDE report.

I-C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the July 11th USDA Reports

“New crop” NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the information in the September 11th USDA reports (Figure 1).  On the day of the report – Thursday, September 11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $9.92 /bu, and traded as high as $9.95 and as low as $9.69 ½ during the session, before settling at $9.81 ½ – down $0.12 ¼ for the day (Figure 1).   Since then NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a high of $9.99 ¾ on September 16th, to a low of $9.09 ¾ on September 26th before closing at $9.10 ¾ that same day.  Prior to early-mid May 2014, NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures had trend sharply higher from a low of $10.88 ¼ on January 31st to a high of $12.49 ¼ on April 28th, and then to a “higher high” of $12.79 on May 22nd.  Since then, prices have fallen $3.68 ¾ lower – closing at $9.10 ¼ on September 26th .  

Figure 1. NOVEMBER 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

Question: Do these prices represent a fall harvest low?

The downtrend in “new crop” November 2014 soybean futures began arguably on June 30, 2014 when prices fell from $12.36 with a sharp 1 day decline of $0.70 ¾ per bushel.  Then after a time of volatile sideways movement, NOV 2014 futures began to trend more consistently downward from a high of $11.16 ½ on July 29, 2014.  This downtrend continued through August and most of September with prices closing at $9.10 ½ on September 26, 2014.  Following the release of the September 11th USDA reports there has been much discussion about how “the soybean market is looking for a low” for fall harvest 2014.

The results of the October - November 2014 and the January 2015 USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, and the grain market’s reaction to them and potentially other market factors, will be key determinants as to whether these price levels represent the fall harvest “lows” this year.  There are signs that low soybean futures prices are helping to bring about increased purchases on user-buyers parts.  This is found in a) reports from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) export data that sizable forward purchases of U.S. soybeans for later export have occurred, and b) from Commodity Futures Trading Commission data indicating that commercial longs (i.e., business entities that take “long” or “buy” positions in futures markets to provide price protection for their eventual purchase the cash product, such as soybean processors and exporters).  

Until either a) a large proportion of U.S. soybean producers harvest their crop and put it in storage – resisting sales of soybeans at sub-$9.00 cash prices, or b) a significant soybean production threat occurs in South American production regions during the November 2014 through April 2015 period, there is little that will stop “new crop” November 2014 soybean futures prices from continuing to trend lower.  The market is in essence waiting for the formation of a general consensus that soybean futures prices have moved low enough relative to market supply-demand fundamentals.

I-D. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand

U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production

The USDA continued to project that 2014 U.S. soybean planted acreage would be a record high 84.839 million acres (ma), up from 76.533 ma in 2013, 77.198 ma in 2012, and 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 2).   In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage to be a record high 84.058 ma, up from 75.869 ma in 2013, 76.164 ma in 2012, and 73.776 ma in 2011.   The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. soybeans is projected to be 99.07%, down marginally from 99.13% in to 2013, but up from 98.66% in 2012 and 98.3% in 2011. 

Soybean Prevented Planting Impacts?  It is possible that 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acres could be adjusted lower due to prevented planting problems that occurred this past spring.  Farm Service Agency (FSA) estimates released in August and September indicated as much as 2.5-4.0 million acres may have been designated as “prevented planted”.  While questions exist about how these FSA prevented planting data are to be interpreted, it seems likely that at least a marginal decrease in USDA projections of 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage will occur in the upcoming October, November or January 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production reports.  Such an acreage reduction which could lead to at least a marginal reduction in 2014 U.S. soybean production estimates, and which would in turn lead to adjustments in “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year U.S. soybean supply-demand balances.   

The projected 2014 U.S. average soybean yield of 46.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, and is up from USDA projections of 45.4 bu/ac in August, and 45.2 in July.  This projection of 46.6 bu/ac in September is up from 43.3 bu/ac in 2013, the drought-affected 2012 low yield of 39.8 bu/ac., 41.9 164.7 bu/ac in 2009, 43.5 bu/ac in 2010, and the previous record of 44.0 bu/ac in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3).  

Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected  2014 U.S. soybean production to be a record high 3.913 billion bushels (bb), up from 3.289 bb in 2013, 3.034 bb in 2012, 3.094 bb in 2011, the previous record high of 3.329 bb in 2010, and 2.967 bb in 2009 (Table 1).   

U.S. Soybean Total Supplies

The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are 4.058 bb – up 87 million bushels or ‘mb’ from August.  Total “new crop” supplies of 4.058 bb result from beginning stocks of 130 mb, projected 2014 production of 3.913 bb, and projected imports of 15 mb (Table 1).   Over the recent period of expansion in both corn ethanol production and Chinese soybean import demand,  total supplies of U.S. soybeans were 3.655 bb in MY 2006/07 (previous record high), 3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.512 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.495 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.325 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.243 bb in MY 2012/13, and 3.509 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now are projected to be a new record high of 4.058 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

Beginning stocks of 130 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down 10 mb from the August WASDE, and down from 141 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, 169 mb in MY 2012/13, and 215 mb in MY 2011/12.  This forecast of lower beginning stocks of 130 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the low of 112 mb which occurred in MY 2004/05, and to what is at least a 40 year low of 103 mb in beginning stocks in MY 1977/78.

Imports of 15 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from the record high of 80 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and down from the 2nd highest amount of 41 mb in MY 2012/13.   However, U.S. soybean imports of 15 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would represent a return to “normal” – being comparable to the range of 10 – 16 mb in U.S. soybean imports for the MY 2007/08 through MY 2011/12 period, and of U.S. soybean imports of less than 10 mb per marketing year going back to at least MY 1980/81.

U.S. Soybean Use by Category & Total Use

Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.770 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up 15 mb from August) are up from 1.730 bb for “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 5 mb from August), 1.689 bb in MY 2012/13, and from 1.703 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  The record high amount of U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.808 bb occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity-wise with 1.803 bb in MY 2007/08. 

U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.700 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up 25 mb from August) would be a record high, up from the current estimated high of 1.645 in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 50 mb from August) (Table 1 and Figure 4).  United States’ soybean exports were 1.116 bb in MY 2006/07, followed by 1.159 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.505 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.365 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.317 bb in MY 2012/13, the current record high of 1.645 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now the projected new record high of 1.700 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales, as of September 18th, with 3 of 52 weeks (5.8%) of “new crop” MY 2014/15 complete, 25.5 mb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to 1.5% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.700 bb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).  United States’ export shipments will need to average 34.2 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s September 11th WASDE projection of 1.700 bb.  This compares to U.S. soybean export shipments of 7.5 mb and 15.3 mb which occurred during the weeks ending September 11th and September 18th, respectively.   As a result, these early, pre-harvest U.S. soybean export shipments were “behind pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.700 bb in the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year.  However, it is expected that as U.S. soybean harvest progresses in earnest in coming weeks with increased supplies becoming available for export, that the average weekly pace of U.S. soybean exports will increase significantly from current levels.  

Also as of September 18th an additional 1.004 billion bushels (bb) of U.S. soybeans had been sold for future export sales in “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Adding together 25.5 mb in past shipments plus 1.004 bb in forward sales amounts to 1.030 bb, or 60.6% of the USDA’s 1.700 bb U.S. soybean export target for “new crop” MY 2014/15 in the September 11th USDA WASDE report, with only 5.8% (3/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  

This large amount of preharvest export sales are indicative of a type of “pent up” or “anticipated” U.S. soybean export business that will be reflected in sizable export sales once U.S. soybean supplies become physically available for shipment in coming weeks.

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 92 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down from 99 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 4 mb from June), but up from 89 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 90 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  

Residual Use: Forecast residual use of 22 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up 3 mb from August) is up from (94) mb (i.e., a negative 94 mb) estimated in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 8 mb in MY 2012/13.   The appearance of a negative residual number in the U.S. crop supply-demand balance sheet is a common occurrence for USDA Quarterly U.S. wheat balance sheets, and occurred previously in recent years in the MY 2011/12 U.S. soybean balance sheet (2) mb.  However, the appearance of this large of a negative number for the residual measurement in “old crop” MY 2013/14 raises questions about the source of measurement error in the other major supply and demand categories. 

USDA’s Anticipated Residual Adjustment: The USDA’s September 30th Quarterly Stocks report is expected to provide some guidance on how the USDA will rectify this situation.  It seems likely that the USDA will make only minor adjustments in August 31, 2014 ending stocks for the “old crop” 2013/14 soybean marketing year – leaving them near the 130 mb level projected in the September WASDE report.  If this is the case, then the USDA may choose to increase its projected 2013 production estimate by an amount similar to the indicated negative residual for “old crop” MY 2013/14, increasing it from 3.289 bb up in the September WASDE to an adjusted level of approximately 3.383 bb (i.e., 3.289 bb + 94 mb).  If this occurs, the USDA’s projections of ending stocks and percent (%) ending stocks-to-use would not change, but 2013 U.S. soybean production and “old crop” MY 2013/14 total supplies would both increase by the specified amount of the negative residual (i.e., 94 mb).

Total U.S. Soybean Use: Projected U.S. total use of 3.583 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up 42 mb from September) would be a record high, and is up from 3.379 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 10 mb from last month) (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total U.S. soybean use has been 3.081 bb in MY 2006/07, 3.056 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.047 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.361 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.280 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.155 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.103 bb in MY 2012/13, the current record high of 3.379 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now the projected new record high of 3.583 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.   

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

U.S. soybean ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 475 mb, up 45 mb from the September WASDE, and up 265% from 130 mb in ending stocks in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (down 10 mb).  Projected “new crop” MY 2014/15 ending stocks of 475 mb would be the largest amount since 449 mb in MY 2005/06, and 574 mb in MY 2007/08, and compares to 205 mb in MY 2007/08, 138 mb in MY 2008/09, 151 in MY 2009/10, 215 mb in MY 2010/11, 169 mb in MY 2011/12, 141 mb in MY 2012/13, and the estimate of 130 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 13.26% forecast for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (up from 12.14% in the September WASDE) is up from the record low of 3.85% (down from 4.15% in September) now projected by the USDA for “old crop” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).  Over the last eight (8) years, U.S. soybean % ending stocks-to-use have been 18.62% in MY 2006/07, 6.71% in MY 2007/08, 4.53% in MY 2008/09, 4.49% in MY 2009/10, 6.55% in MY 2010/11, 5.36% in MY 2011/12, 4.54% in MY 2012/13, the estimate of 3.85% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now the projection of 13.26% for “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. average soybean prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be $9.00-$11.00 per bushel (midpoint = $10.00) – down sharply from $13.00 /bu in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, U.S. soybean prices have been $6.43 per bushel in MY 2006/07, $10.10 in MY 2007/08, $9.97 in MY 2008/09, $9.59 in MY 2009/10, $11.30 in MY 2010/11, $12.50 in MY 2011/12, a record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13, $13.00 for “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now a range midpoint projection of $10.00 / bu in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

I-E. KSU U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Scenarios for “Next Crop” 2014/15

The USDA is projecting that “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year U.S. soybean prices will be down markedly from the previous few years, in the range of $9.00-$11.00 per bushel (midpoint of $10.00).  Similarly, the Kansas State University (KSU) forecasts provided here are decidedly conservative in terms of projected U.S. soybean prices, with a 65% probability of U.S. soybean prices averaging near $10.75 per bushel for “new crop” MY 2014/15, and an additional 20% probability of prices averaging near $10.00 per bushel, and a 15% probability of prices being higher at $11.75 per bushel.  Given the market information available in September 2014 on U.S. soybean crop progress and growing conditions, these conservative price projections seem reasonable.  

KSU Probability Projections U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand & Prices for MY 2014/15

Kansas State University (KSU) forecasts of U.S. soybean supply-demand balances for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year are provided below.   The KSU projections at this time in the marketing year cycle are an effort to reflect the uncertainty that remains in regards in late September 2014 in regards to the amount of 2014 U.S. soybean production.  The size of the 2014 U.S. soybean crop will be determined by 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acres on the one hand, and on 2014 U.S. soybean yields on the other.  These KSU 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage projections follow from the USDA September 11th USDA WASDE report and USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) prevented planting data for 2014 soybeans.

KSU projections of 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage are found in Table 1 and Figure 2.   Projections of 2014 probability-weighted U.S. soybean yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. soybean average prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are based on projections of U.S. soybean % ending stocks-to-use shown in Table 1 and Figure 6.  Three probability-weighted KSU supply-demand and price scenarios follow below for U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

In these projections the low acreage and low yield scenarios were deliberately placed together in Scenario #3 to represent the “low 2014 U.S. soybean production” scenario.  Similarly, the high planted acreage and high yield outcomes are deliberately placed together to represent the “high 2014 soybean production” outcome in scenario #2.  It is possible – and indeed likely – that at the end of the 2014 U.S. soybean growing season the size of the soybean crop could be nearly equal to either the high production or low production outcomes of scenarios #2 or #3, but for different high or low acreage and/or yield outcomes than either of these scenarios are constructed on.

Scenario #1: “Likely” 2014 U.S. Production = 3.727 billion bushels, 12.30% S/U, $10.75/bu – 65% Probability

It is estimated there is a “6.5 out of 10” or 65% chance of final 2014 U.S. soybean production being 3.717 billion bushels (bb) – 186 million bushels (mb) less than the USDA projection of 3.913 bb.  In this constructed scenario, the 2014 production number is calculated using planted acreage of 83.589 million acres (ma) (i.e., 1.25 ma less than the USDA’s estimate of 84.839 ma due to acknowledgement of FSA prevented planting data released in September) (Table 1).  Assuming the USDA’s U.S. soybean % harvested-to-planted acreage of 99.07%, 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 82.812 ma – down 1.246 ma from the USDA projection of 84.058 ma. 

Using an average yield of 45.0 bu/ac (less than the USDA projection of 46.6 bu/ac assuming some late development, disease, and delayed harvest issues), 2014 U.S. soybean production would be 3.727 bb, with total U.S. soybean supplies of 3.872 bb.  United States’ soybean total usage is projected to be3 3.448 bb, with ending stocks of 424 mb (vs 475 mb for the USDA), resulting in a forecast of % ending stocks-to-use near 12.30% for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (below the USDA’s projection of 13.26%).  U.S. soybean average prices would be in the range of $10.25-$11.25 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $10.75) (Table 1 and Figures 5-6). 

Scenario #2: “High” 2014 U.S. Production = 3.913 billion bushels, 13.26% S/U, $10.00/bu – 20% Probability

It is estimated that at this time there is a “2 out of 10” or 20% chance of final 2014 U.S. soybean production of 3.913 bb, equal to USDA projection.  This “high production” scenario is based on the assumption that 2014 planted acreage is 84.839 ma and harvested acreage is 84.058 ma, with a U.S. soybean yield of 46.6 bu/ac (each equal to USDA projections) (Table 1).   Given these assumptions, 2014 U.S. soybean production would be 3.913 bb, with total U.S. soybean supplies of 4.058 bb, U.S. soybean usage at 3.583 bb, ending stocks of 475 mb, resulting in a forecast of % ending stocks-to-use near 13.26% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  U.S. soybean average prices would be markedly lower – in the range of $9.50-$10.50 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $10.00) (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

Scenario #3: “Lower” 2014 U.S. Production = 3.548 billion bushels, 10.95% S/U, $11.75/bu – 15% Probability

It is estimated that there is also a “1.5 out of 10” or 15% chance of final 2014 U.S. soybean production being 3.548 bb – 365 mb less than the USDA projection of 3.913 bb.  This forecast is constructed on a scenario with 2014 U.S. soybean planted acreage being 82.339 ma (i.e., 2.50 ma less than the USDA’s estimate of 84.839 ma due to acknowledgement of FSA prevented planting data released in September) (Table 1).   Assuming the USDA’s U.S. soybean % harvested-to-planted acreage of 99.07%, 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage would be 81.573 ma – down 2.685 ma from the USDA projection of 84.058 ma. 

Using a lower U.S. soybean yield of 43.5 bu/ac (i.e., a larger reduction from the USDA projection of 46.6 bu/ac assuming more pronounced late development, disease, and delayed harvest issues), 2014 U.S. soybean production would be 3.548 bb, with total U.S. soybean supplies of 3.698 bb.  Assuming U.S. soybean usage at 3.333 bb, and ending stocks of 365 mb, % ending stocks-to-use would be near 6.55% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  In this “lower crop” scenario, U.S. soybean average prices would be in the range of $11.25-$12.25 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $11.75) (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

II. World Soybean Supply-Demand Trends

World soybean production is projected to increase 9.9% in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year over “old crop” MY 2013/14.  With a forecast increase in available World soybean total supplies in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (378.0 mmt, up 11.2% from 340.0 mmt a year ago, and up from 321.4 mmt two years ago), World soybean total use is also projected to increase by 5.9% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 over “old crop” MY 2013/14. 

Since early 2013 U.S. soybean markets have been driven by the following key factors, including a) record large 2013 and 2014 South American soybean crops and total supplies – albeit with logistical shipping problems in Brazilian ports in mid-2013, b) a historically large 2013 U.S. soybean followed by a record U.S. soybean crop in 2014, and c) ongoing strength of World soybean and soybean product import demand from China and other countries.  With prospects for a large 2014 U.S. soybean crop which is likely to result in markedly lower U.S. and World soybean prices this coming fall.

II-A. World Soybean Production by Country / Region

Projected World soybean production of 311.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, up 28.0 mmt (9.9%) from 283.1 mmt for “old crop” MY 2013/14, 267.8 mmt in MY 2012/13; the recent low of 239.7 mmt in MY 2011/12; and the range of 211.9-263.9 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean production is projected to be 204.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 5.7% from 193.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 10.4% from 185.3 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

It is important to note that South American soybean production in “new crop” MY 2014/15 will not be planted until at least the later months of 2014 and consequently will not be harvested until February-March 2015 at the earliest.  Most of the source of market uncertainty that could occur in “new crop” MY 2014/15 throughout the remainder of calendar year 2014 (at least through fall harvest in the U.S.) will be associated with U.S. soybean production crop progress and conditions.

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major soybean producing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 and “old crop” 2013/14 marketing years, along with MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases are projected in most major producing countries or regions in “old crop” MY 2013/14 except for China.  In “new crop” MY 2014/15, the United States (106.5 mmt – up 17.0 mmt for the year) is projected to be the largest World producer of soybeans, followed by Brazil (94.0 mmt – up 7.3 mmt from the “old crop” MY 2013/14’s record high of 86.7 mmt), Argentina (55.0 mmt – up 1.0 mmt), China (12.0 mmt – down 0.2 mmt), and Paraguay (8.2 mmt – up 0.1 mmt).

II-B. World Soybean Exports by Country / Region

Global soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 115.4 mmt, up 2.2% from 112.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 14.8% from 100.5 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean exports are projected to be 69.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 1.4% from 68.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 6.9% from 64.7 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major soybean exporting countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, and also for “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States and Brazil, but not for Argentina (unchanged), or Paraguay (marginal increase).  The largest projected exporter of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is Brazil (46.7 mmt – up 0.3 mmt from a year ago), the United States (46.3 mmt – up 1.5 mmt vs last year), followed by the Argentina (8.5 mmt – unchanged), and Paraguay (4.3 mmt – up 0.02 mmt).

II-C. World Soybean Imports by Country / Region

Global soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 112.5 mmt, up 3.3% from 108.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 17.3% from 95.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean imports are projected to be 112.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 5.0% from 106.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 18.3% from 94.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major soybean importing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the China, the European Union, Japan, and Mexico, with decreased imports projected for the United States.  China is projected to be the largest World soybean importer, with “new crop” MY 2014/15 soybean imports increasing to 74.0 mmt – up 5.0 mmt from a year ago.  China is followed by the European Union (12.75 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), Mexico (3.95 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), and Japan (2.9 mmt – up 0.03 mmt). 

II-D. World Soybean Domestic Crush by Country / Region

Global soybean domestic crush in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a 252.1 mmt, up 5.1% from 239.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 9.8% from 229.6 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean domestic crush is projected to be 203.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 5.7% from 192.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 11.1% from 183.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean domestic crush in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean crush use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for nearly all major importing and exporting countries except for Japan (up only marginally).  China (73.5 mmt – up 4.75 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans for domestic crushing in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (47.2 mmt – up 1.1 mmt), Argentina (39.8 mmt – up 2.6 mmt), Brazil (37.6 mmt – up 1.6 mmt), the European Union (12.7 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), Mexico (4.2 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), Paraguay (3.6 mmt – up 0.1 mmt), and Japan (1.95 mmt – up 0.01 mmt).  

II-E. World Soybean Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World soybean total use of 285.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is a record high, up 5.9% from the previous record of 269.1 mmt for “old crop” MY 2013/14, up 9.6% from 259.9 mmt in MY 2012/13; and up from the range of 221.5-257.8 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 6 and Figure 7).   Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean total use is projected to be 233.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 5.4% from 221.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 16.7% from 200.3 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of soybean total use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean total use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for all major producing and using countries except Japan – for which a small marginal increase is forecast.  China (85.0 mmt – up 4.9 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the largest World user of soybeans in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (51.3 mmt – up 4.1 mmt), Argentina (41.9 mmt – up 2.6 mmt), Brazil (40.8 mmt – up 1.8 mmt), the European Union (13.7 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), Mexico (4.2 mmt – up 0.2 mmt), Paraguay (3.7 mmt – up 0.1mmt), and Japan (3.1 mmt, down 0.04 mmt). 

II-F. World Soybean Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World soybean ending stocks of 90.2 mmt for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up 34.8% from 66.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 58.6% from 56.8 mmt in MY 2012/13, and above the range of 43.1-70.3 mmt over the MY 2007/08 through 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks are projected to be 77.2 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 21.9% from 63.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 45.7% from 53.0 mmt in MY 2012/13.

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean ending stocks in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, China, and the European Union, and Mexico, with only a marginal increase for Japan, and no change for Mexico.  Argentina (33.2 mmt – up 4.6 mmt from a year ago) is projected to be the World’s largest holder of soybean ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (24.4 mmt – up 7.2 mmt), China (14.0 mmt – up 0.75 mmt), the United States (12.9 mmt – up 9.4 mmt), the European Union (1.1 mmt – up 0.5 mmt), Paraguay (0.4 mmt – up 0.17 mmt), Japan (0.26 mmt – up 0.04 mmt), and Mexico (0.17 mmt – unchanged). 

II-G. World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Forecast World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 31.6% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 represents a record high (going back at least 51 years to MY 1964/65), being up from 24.9% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and 21.9% in MY 2012/13, and is comparable to 22.3% in MY 2011/12, 26.6% in MY 2010/11, 23.4% in MY 2009/10, 20.4% in MY 2008/09, and 24.0% in MY 2007/08 (Table 8).  The minimum level of World soybean % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1960s occurred in MY 1976/77 (6.9% S/U), MY 1996/97 (11.8% S/U), and MY 1978/79 (12.6% S/U).  World soybean ending stocks-to-use of 20.4% in MY 2008/09 is the lowest since 19.3% in MY 2001/02.  Foreign (non-U.S.) soybean ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 25.5% in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up from 21.89% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 20.0% in MY 2012/13.

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of soybean percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in soybean percent ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, the European Union, and Japan, with decreased ending stocks projected for China and Mexico. 

Argentina (65.9% S/U – up from 59.9% a year ago) is projected to be the largest World holder of soybeans in terms of ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (27.9% – up from 20.2%), China (16.4% – down from 16.5%), the United States (13.3% – up from 3.85%), Japan (8.5% – up from 7.3%), the European Union (8.0% – up from 4.7%), Paraguay (5.0% – up from 2.9%), and Mexico (4.0% – down from 4.2%). 

Table 1. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2007/08 through KSU Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

  (September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report + KSU Projections)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

 

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

KSU 2014/15

Low Production

KSU 2014/15

Expected

Production

KSU 2014/15

High Production 

Percent Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15%

65%

20%

Planted Area (million acres)

75.718

77.451

77.404

75.046

77.198

76.533

84.839

82.339

83.589

84.839

Harvested Area (million acres)

74.681

76.372

76.610

73.776

76.164

75.869

84.058

81.573

82.812

84.058

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.63%

98.60%

98.97%

98.30%

98.66%

99.13%

99.07%

99.07%

99.07%

99.07%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

39.7

44.0

43.5

41.9

39.8

43.3

46.6

43.5

45.0

46.6

 

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks

205

138

151

215

169

141

130

130

130

130

Production

2,967

3,359

3,329

3,094

3,034

3,289

3,913

3,548

3,727

3,913

Imports

13

15

14

16

41

80

15

20

15

15

Total Supply

3,185

3,512

3,495

3,325

3,243

3,509

4,058

3,698

3,872

4,058

 

Domestic Crushings

1,662

1,752

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,730

1,770

1,648

1,707

1,770

Exports

1,279

1,499

1,505

1,365

1,317

1,645

1,700

1,583

1,639

1,700

Seed

90

90

87

90

89

99

92

92

92

92

Residual

16

20

43

-2

8

-94

22

10

10

10

Total Use

3,047

3,361

3,280

3,155

3,103

3,379

3,583

3,333

3,448

3,583

 

Ending Stocks

138

151

215

169

141

130

475

365

424

475

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.53%

4.49%

6.55%

5.36%

4.54%

3.85%

13.26%

10.95%

12.30%

13.26%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$9.97

$9.59

 

$11.30

$12.50

$14.40

$13.00

$9.00-$11.00

($10.00)

$11.25-$12.25

($11.75)

$10.25-$11.25

($10.75)

$9.50-$10.50

($10.00)

Figure 2. U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage (2004-2014) with 2014 Projections

Figure 3. U.S. Soybean Yield Trend (1973-2014) and KSU 2014 Projections

Text Box: 2014 Trend Yield = 44.3 (1973-2013 Series)
43.5 bu/ac

Figure 4. Trends in U.S. Soybean Use and Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 - “New Crop” MY 2014/15 Plus KSU 2014/15 Projections
(September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Figure 5. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 – “New Crop” 2014/15                   
September 11th USDA WASDE with KSU projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15

 

Figure 6. U.S. Soybean Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “New Crop” MY 2014/15)

Text Box: USDA “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
13.26% S/U @ $9.20 /bu
Text Box: KSU “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
12.3% S/U
 $9.20 /bu

Text Box: 2011/12

Figure 7. World Soybean Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “New Crop” MY 2014/15                               
(September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: Soybean 
End Stocks
90.2 mmt in MY 2014/15
 
43-70 mmt
during 2007/08 through 2013/14 Period
 
Text Box: Soybean Usage
ñ10.6 mmt/yr (+4.8%/yr) since 2008/09
Text Box: Soybean Production
ñ16.5 mmt/yr (+7.8%/yr) since 2008/09
 
Text Box: Soybean Trade
115.4 mmt in     MY 2014/15 is ñ6.4 mmt/yr (+8.2%/yr) since 2008/09

 

Table 2. World Soybean Production Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Production: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Soybean Production: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production:               September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         September of August 2014

September Soybean Production: Old crop 2013/14          

August Soybean Production: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August Soybean  Production             for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Production of                         Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

311.13

304.69

6.44

102.1%

283.13

283.95

(0.82)

28.00

109.9%

267.83

43.30

116.2%

United States

106.50

103.85

2.65

102.6%

89.51

89.51

0.00

16.99

119.0%

82.56

23.94

129.0%

Total Foreign

204.63

200.85

3.78

101.9%

193.62

194.44

(0.82)

11.01

105.7%

185.27

19.36

110.4%

Major Exporters

160.60

156.60

4.00

102.6%

152.30

153.10

(0.80)

8.30

105.4%

143.15

17.45

112.2%

Argentina

55.00

54.00

1.00

101.9%

54.00

54.00

0.00

1.00

101.9%

49.30

5.70

111.6%

Brazil

94.00

91.00

3.00

103.3%

86.70

87.50

(0.80)

7.30

108.4%

82.00

12.00

114.6%

Paraguay

8.20

8.20

0.00

100.0%

8.10

8.10

0.00

0.10

101.2%

8.20

0.00

100.0%

Major Importers

14.85

14.85

0.00

100.0%

14.75

14.75

0.00

0.10

100.7%

15.33

(0.48)

96.9%

China

12.00

12.00

0.00

100.0%

12.20

12.20

0.00

(0.20)

98.4%

13.05

(1.05)

92.0%

EU - 28 Countries

1.47

1.47

0.00

100.0%

1.23

1.23

0.00

0.24

119.5%

0.95

0.52

154.7%

Japan

0.21

0.21

0.00

100.0%

0.20

0.20

0.00

0.01

105.0%

0.24

(0.03)

87.5%

Mexico

0.29

0.29

0.00

100.0%

0.25

0.25

0.00

0.04

116.0%

0.25

0.04

116.0%

 

Table 3. World Soybean Export Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Exports: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Soybean Exports: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:               September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         September of August 2014

September Soybean Exports: Old crop 2013/14          

August Soybean Exports: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August Soybean  Exports             for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports of Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

115.40

113.32

2.08

101.8%

112.93

112.73

0.20

2.47

102.2%

100.52

14.88

114.8%

United States

46.27

45.59

0.68

101.5%

44.77

44.63

0.14

1.50

103.4%

35.85

10.42

129.1%

Total Foreign

69.13

67.73

1.40

102.1%

68.16

68.10

0.06

0.97

101.4%

64.67

4.46

106.9%

Major Exporters

62.70

61.00

1.70

102.8%

62.54

62.44

0.10

0.16

100.3%

58.69

4.01

106.8%

Argentina

8.50

8.50

0.00

100.0%

8.50

8.50

0.00

0.00

100.0%

7.74

0.76

109.8%

Brazil

46.70

45.00

1.70

103.8%

46.40

46.30

0.10

0.30

100.6%

41.90

4.80

111.5%

Paraguay

4.32

4.32

0.00

100.0%

4.30

4.30

0.00

0.02

100.5%

5.52

(1.20)

78.3%

Major Importers

0.39

0.39

0.00

100.0%

0.32

0.32

0.00

0.07

121.9%

0.38

0.01

102.6%

China

0.30

0.30

0.00

100.0%

0.24

0.24

0.00

0.06

125.0%

0.27

0.03

111.1%

EU - 28 Countries

0.07

0.07

0.00

100.0%

0.06

0.06

0.00

0.01

116.7%

0.09

(0.02)

77.8%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

 

Table 4. World Soybean Import Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Imports: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Soybean Imports: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:               September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         September of August 2014

September Soybean Imports: Old crop 2013/14          

August Soybean Imports: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August Soybean  Imports             for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports of Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

112.50

110.55

1.95

101.8%

108.92

108.85

0.07

3.58

103.3%

95.88

16.62

117.3%

United States

0.41

0.41

0.00

100.0%

2.18

2.18

0.00

(1.77)

18.8%

1.10

(0.69)

37.3%

Total Foreign

112.09

110.14

1.95

101.8%

106.74

106.67

0.07

5.35

105.0%

94.77

17.32

118.3%

Major Exporters

0.63

0.53

0.10

118.9%

0.63

0.58

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.42

0.21

150.0%

Argentina

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.60

0.50

0.10

120.0%

0.60

0.55

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.40

0.20

150.0%

Paraguay

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.00

100.0%

Major Importers

100.19

98.69

1.50

101.5%

94.50

94.50

0.00

5.69

106.0%

84.19

16.00

119.0%

China

74.00

73.00

1.00

101.4%

69.00

69.00

0.00

5.00

107.2%

59.87

14.13

123.6%

EU - 28 Countries

12.75

12.50

0.25

102.0%

12.65

12.65

0.00

0.10

100.8%

12.51

0.24

101.9%

Japan

2.90

2.80

0.10

103.6%

2.87

2.87

0.00

0.03

101.0%

2.83

0.07

102.5%

Mexico

3.95

3.90

0.05

101.3%

3.85

3.85

0.00

0.10

102.6%

3.41

0.54

115.8%

 

Table 5. World Soybean Crush Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Crush                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Crush: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Soybean Crush: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Crush:               September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Crush:                Percent (%)         September of August 2014

September Soybean Crush: Old crop 2013/14           

August Soybean Crush: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August Soybean  Crush for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Crush             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Crush of Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Crush: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Crush             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Crush       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

252.08

250.90

1.18

100.5%

239.93

240.80

(0.87)

12.15

105.1%

229.57

22.51

109.8%

United States

48.17

47.76

0.41

100.9%

47.08

46.95

0.13

1.09

102.3%

45.97

2.20

104.8%

Total Foreign

203.91

203.14

0.77

100.4%

192.85

193.85

(1.00)

11.06

105.7%

183.61

20.30

111.1%

Major Exporters

81.20

80.80

0.40

100.5%

76.88

77.88

(1.00)

4.32

105.6%

71.90

9.30

112.9%

Argentina

39.80

39.80

0.00

100.0%

37.23

37.23

0.00

2.57

106.9%

33.61

6.19

118.4%

Brazil

37.60

37.10

0.50

101.3%

36.00

37.00

(1.00)

1.60

104.4%

35.24

2.36

106.7%

Paraguay

3.60

3.70

(0.10)

97.3%

3.50

3.50

0.00

0.10

102.9%

2.95

0.65

122.0%

Major Importers

95.72

95.54

0.18

100.2%

90.36

90.40

(0.04)

5.36

105.9%

86.14

9.58

111.1%

China

73.50

73.50

0.00

100.0%

68.75

68.75

0.00

4.75

106.9%

64.95

8.55

113.2%

EU - 28 Countries

12.66

12.66

0.00

100.0%

12.50

12.50

0.00

0.16

101.3%

12.74

(0.08)

99.4%

Japan

1.95

1.95

0.00

100.0%

1.94

1.99

(0.05)

0.01

100.5%

1.92

0.03

101.6%

Mexico

4.20

4.10

0.10

102.4%

4.00

4.00

0.00

0.20

105.0%

3.65

0.55

115.1%

 

Table 6. World Soybean Total Use Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Total Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Total Use: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Soybean Total Use: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use:               September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use:  Percent (%)         September of August 2014

September Soybean Total Use: Old crop 2013/14          

August Soybean Total Use: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August Soybean  Total Use             for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Total Use of Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Total Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Total Use             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Total Use of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

284.98

283.40

1.58

100.6%

269.05

269.80

(0.75)

15.93

105.9%

259.90

25.08

109.6%

United States

51.26

50.78

0.48

100.9%

47.19

47.06

0.13

4.07

108.6%

48.60

2.66

105.5%

Total Foreign

233.72

232.62

1.10

100.5%

221.85

222.75

(0.90)

11.87

105.4%

200.30

33.42

116.7%

Major Exporters

86.61

86.06

0.55

100.6%

82.08

83.06

(0.98)

4.53

105.5%

76.89

9.72

112.6%

Argentina

41.90

41.90

0.00

100.0%

39.28

39.28

0.00

2.62

106.7%

35.55

6.35

117.9%

Brazil

40.75

40.10

0.65

101.6%

39.00

39.98

(0.98)

1.75

104.5%

38.19

2.56

106.7%

Paraguay

3.74

3.84

(0.10)

97.4%

3.64

3.64

0.00

0.10

102.7%

3.03

0.71

123.4%

Major Importers

113.29

112.97

0.32

100.3%

107.56

107.54

0.02

5.73

105.3%

102.90

10.39

110.1%

China

84.95

84.90

0.05

100.1%

80.10

80.05

0.05

4.85

106.1%

76.18

8.77

111.5%

EU - 28 Countries

13.69

13.64

0.05

100.4%

13.43

13.43

0.00

0.26

101.9%

13.65

0.04

100.3%

Japan

3.07

3.01

0.06

102.0%

3.03

3.08

(0.05)

0.04

101.3%

3.01

0.06

102.0%

Mexico

4.24

4.14

0.10

102.4%

4.04

4.04

0.00

0.20

105.0%

3.69

0.55

114.9%

 

Table 7. World Soybean Ending Stocks Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean End Stocks                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean End Stocks: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Soybean End Stocks: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks:               September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks: Percent (%) September of August 2014

September Soybean End Stocks: Old crop 2013/14          

August Soybean End Stocks: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August Soybean  End Stocks             for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks of                         Old crop 2013/14

Soybean End Stocks: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks Less                     2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 End Stocks of                         2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

90.17

85.62

4.55

105.3%

66.91

67.09

(0.18)

23.26

134.8%

56.84

33.33

158.6%

United States

12.93

11.71

1.22

110.4%

3.55

3.82

(0.27)

9.38

364.2%

3.83

9.10

337.6%

Total Foreign

77.24

73.91

3.33

104.5%

63.36

63.27

0.09

13.88

121.9%

53.01

24.23

145.7%

Major Exporters

58.03

56.05

1.98

103.5%

46.11

45.98

0.13

11.92

125.9%

37.80

20.23

153.5%

Argentina

33.23

32.23

1.00

103.1%

28.63

28.63

0.00

4.60

116.1%

22.40

10.83

148.3%

Brazil

24.38

23.51

0.87

103.7%

17.23

17.11

0.12

7.15

141.5%

15.33

9.05

159.0%

Paraguay

0.40

0.30

0.10

133.3%

0.23

0.23

0.00

0.17

173.9%

0.04

0.36

1000.0%

Major Importers

15.97

14.79

1.18

108.0%

14.61

14.62

(0.01)

1.36

109.3%

13.24

2.73

120.6%

China

13.99

13.09

0.90

106.9%

13.24

13.29

(0.05)

0.75

105.7%

12.38

1.61

113.0%

EU - 28 Countries

1.10

0.90

0.20

122.2%

0.64

0.64

0.00

0.46

171.9%

0.25

0.85

440.0%

Japan

0.26

0.17

0.09

152.9%

0.22

0.18

0.04

0.04

118.2%

0.18

0.08

144.4%

Mexico

0.17

0.22

(0.05)

77.3%

0.17

0.17

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.10

0.07

170.0%

 

Table 8. World Soybean Ending Stocks-to-Use Forecasts for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Soybean Ending %Stx/Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use:               September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use:                Percent (%) September of August 2014

September Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Old crop 2013/14          

August Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August Soybean  Ending %Stx/Use             for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use of                         Old crop 2013/14

Soybean Ending %Stx/Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Ending %Stx/Use of                         2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

31.6%

30.2%

1.4%

104.7%

24.9%

24.9%

0.0%

6.8%

127.2%

21.9%

9.8%

144.7%

United States

13.3%

23.1%

-9.8%

57.5%

3.9%

4.2%

-0.3%

9.4%

343.4%

4.5%

8.7%

292.3%

Total Foreign

25.5%

31.8%

-6.3%

80.3%

21.8%

21.8%

0.1%

3.7%

116.7%

20.0%

5.5%

127.5%

Major Exporters

38.9%

65.1%

-26.3%

59.7%

31.9%

31.6%

0.3%

7.0%

121.9%

27.9%

11.0%

139.4%

Argentina

65.9%

76.9%

-11.0%

85.7%

59.9%

59.9%

0.0%

6.0%

110.0%

51.7%

14.2%

127.4%

Brazil

27.9%

58.6%

-30.7%

47.6%

20.2%

19.8%

0.3%

7.7%

138.2%

19.1%

8.7%

145.6%

Paraguay

5.0%

7.8%

-2.8%

63.5%

2.9%

2.9%

0.0%

2.1%

171.3%

0.5%

4.5%

1060.8%

Major Importers

14.0%

13.1%

1.0%

107.3%

13.5%

13.6%

0.0%

0.5%

103.7%

12.8%

1.2%

109.6%

China

16.4%