Disclaimer:
This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk
management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options,
forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty
is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must
consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her
situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State
University.
Estimated Weighted National Average Price and Projected Counter Cyclical
Payments(08/01/05)
Wheat (05/06)
Corn (04/05)
Estimated
Monthly
Estimated
Monthly
Month
Weight
Price
Month
Weight
Price
Jun
13.0
3.23
Sep
8.5
2.20
Jul
20.3
3.25
Oct
14.1
2.15
Aug
11.8
3.56
Nov
11.1
2.05
Sep
8.1
3.73
Dec
7.4
2.04
Oct
6.1
3.85
Jan
14.8
2.12
Nov
5.4
3.94
Feb
6.3
1.95
Dec
7.2
3.89
Mar
7.1
2.02
Jan
8.6
3.84
Apr
5.7
2.00
Feb
5.1
3.82
May
5.0
1.99
Mar
5.3
3.84
Jun1
5.6
2.03
Apr
4.3
3.79
Jul
6.9
2.15
May
4.1
3.81
Aug
7.4
2.14
KSU Est Avg Price
3.58
2.09
Strike Price
3.40
2.35
Exp. Counter Cyclical Pymt
0.00
0.26
USDA Est Avg Price for 04/052
2.60-3.10
2.00-2.10
Milo (04/05)
Soybeans (04/05)
Estimated
Monthly
Estimated
Monthly
Month
Weight
Price
Month
Weight
Price
Sep
7.4
3.59
Sep
7.6
5.84
Oct
11.9
3.15
Oct
23.9
5.56
Nov
14.6
3.06
Nov1
9.0
5.36
Dec
15.3
2.99
Dec
7.8
5.45
Jan
11.9
2.95
Jan
15.3
5.57
Feb
4.6
2.95
Feb
6.8
5.42
Mar
4.3
3.17
Mar
7.1
6.28
Apr
2.9
2.96
Apr
5.3
6.03
May1
2.6
3.06
May1
4.4
6.20
Jun
6.4
3.85
Jun
3.8
6.58
Jul
8.0
4.11
Jul
4.8
6.84
Aug
10.1
4.09
Aug
4.2
6.58
KSU Est Avg Price
3.32
5.79
Strike Price
3.96
5.36
Exp. Counter Cyclical Pymt
0.48
0.00
USDA Est Avg Price for 04/052
2.95-3.13
5.80
Cotton (03/04)
Estimated
Monthly
Month
Weight
Price
Aug
3.7
0.537
Sep
4.6
0.493
Oct
9.9
0.495
Nov
14.9
0.444
Dec
17.7
0.407
Jan
15.5
0.396
Feb
9.9
0.390
Mar
6.9
0.422
Apr
4.6
0.431
May1
4.4
0.420
Jun
4.3
0.440
Jul
3.8
0.421
KSU Est Avg Price3
0.4315
Strike Price
0.6573
Exp. Counter Cyclical Pymt
0.1373
1
The previous monthly prices are official NASS prices. The remaining
monthly prices for the marketing year and all weights are KSU estimates.
2
The USDA estimated weighted average prices received by farmers are
approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released monthly.
These estimates were released on July 12, 2005.
3
By law USDA does not publish an estimated weighted average cotton price
received by farmers.
2004/05 USDA Program Rates and Counter Cyclical Payment Trigger Price
Counter Cyclical Trigger Price
Maximum Counter Cyclical Payment
Crop
Direct Payment Rate
Target Price
Loan Rate
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D = A - B)
Corn (bu)
2.63
0.28
1.95
2.35
0.40
Sorghum (bu)
2.57
0.35
1.95
2.22
0.27
Soybeans (bu)
5.80
0.44
5.00
5.36
0.36
Wheat (bu)
3.92
0.52
2.75
3.40
0.65
Barley (bu)
2.24
0.24
1.85
2.00
0.15
Oats (bu)
1.44
0.024
1.33
1.416
0.09
Minor oilseeds (cwt)1
10.10
0.80
9.30
9.30
0.00
Upland cotton (lb)2
0.724
0.0667
0.52
0.6573
0.1373
1
The trigger price for minor oilseeds is below the loan rate. Thus, there
can be no counter-cyclical payment for minor oilseeds.
2
USDA is prohibited by law from publishing a price estimate for cotton,
but is required to publish an estimated counter-cyclical payment. That
means USDA must estimate the national average price to pay advanced
counter cyclical payments.
