2016/2017 National ARC-CO Projections
Estimated ARC-CO payments for 2016/17 are derived from KSU estimated Marketing Year Average (MYA) Prices found HERE and NASS reported county yields. Values will be updated each month as more county yields and prices are released. The 2016/17 payment will be paid in the fall on 85% of the base acres only. No adjustments were made for any sequestration cuts or for crops planted on non-base acres.
Click "Full Screen" in the lower right to see a larger version of the map. Use the dropdown menu on the left side of the map to select your State Name, Crop, and Yield Type. Yield type may be Irrigated, Non-Irrigated, or ALL. Click on the + key in the upper left side of the map to increase map size or click on the arrow located on the control menu and the adjoining menu pops up.
Hover your cursor over the county of interest to see more detail. The "Yield to Trigger Payment" gives the uppermost county yield to receive any ARC-CO payment, while the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment" gives the uppermost county yield to receive the maximum ARC-CO payment. If the NASS yield is below the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment", then you will receive the maximum payment based on current MYA price projection that will change very little. If your NASS yield is very nearly the same as the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment", then your payment is at risk. However, if your NASS yield is 20% below the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment" Then it is nearly 100% certain that you will receive the maximum ARC payment. For example if the NASS yield is 40 bushels and the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment" is 50 bushels, then you are so deep in to the money that can take the “payment to the bank”!
Disclaimer: No warranty is given or implied by the authors or Kansas State University. The Farm Service Agency will determine all final and official numbers that determine ARC-CO payments. Questions may be directed to Robin Reid, 785.532.0964 or email@example.com; Art Barnaby: firstname.lastname@example.org; or Rich Llewelyn:email@example.com.