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January 15, 2013
risk … Drought Implications, and
Risk Management Overview
January … 1/14/13’
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW …
January 31, 2013
profitability … 1/30/13’
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW … 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
12/18/12Livestock …
December 11, 2012
profitability … 12/7/12
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW … 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
09/20/12
Livestock …
September 27, 2012
necessarily seeking to maximize profits as core goal …
• Returns … 9/26/12
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW … 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
09/20/12
Livestock …
November 1, 2012
necessarily seeking to maximize profits as core goal …
• Returns … 10/31/12
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW … 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
09/20/12
Livestock …
March 1, 2013
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp#Beef Cattle
Economic … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp
• Excess capacity concerns … Income, Selected Countries, 2008
Argentina
Source: USDA-FAS
U.S.
Canada
Australia
Japan
New …
March 26, 2013
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp#Beef Cattle
January Cattle … 3/25/13’
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
8
As of: 2/11/13’
http … 2/11/13’
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
Drop of $10-15/cwt
between …
May 9, 2013
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
12/18/12Livestock … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp
• Excess capacity concerns … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer …
January 1, 2009
Animal ID & Traceability
The first set of scenarios compare doing nothing (status quo) to adopting
full animal tracing for just the bovine sector. The bovine sector is the
focus here because it is it the sector among bovine, porcine, ovine, and
poultry that would incur the largest adoption cost of NAIS practices.
Under the status quo scenarios, we further explore what the impacts are
if by doing nothing we also lose export market access. We are likely to
lose export market access over time if we do not adopt NAIS practices,
even without any major market or major animal disease event, because
the international marketplace is making animal identification and tracing
systems the norm and any country that does not conform will have less
market access.
Table 2 summarizes the total loss per head to producers in the beef
sector, after all markets adjust as a result of not adopting NAIS practices
(i.e., status quo) under 0%, 10%, 25%, and 50% permanent export
market losses for beef. If we do nothing to adopt NAIS, and nothing
happens to export markets, the result is no cost, no market loss. If we do
nothing and we lose market access, which we believe is likely, the beef
industry will suffer losses. The losses would amount to $18.25 per head if
we do not adopt NAIS and we lose 25% of export market share. To put
this into perspective, this would be about like losing access to the South
Korean export market at 2003 export market shares.
Table 2. Net Annual Loss in Beef Producer Surplus from Status Quo
with Varying Export Market Losses
Export Market Loss Incurred
0% …
July 18, 2012
Energy
cost variability and greater risk management challenges ...........18
Figure … billion pounds per year since 2008 ................................................26
vFuture … characterized by natural lag between profits and changes in slaughter …