2016/2017 National ARC-CO Projections
RMA county yields used for the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) have been released for wheat. RMA splits all of its county yields between irrigated and non-irrigated yields. In many cases RMA shows the irrigated and non-irrigated as the same yield. In that case we assume one of those practices dominates the planted acreage in that county and will be similar to the combined yield that FSA uses for most counties. We used the RMA county yield when there was no published NASS county yield for estimating ARC-CO payments. If there was no NASS yield and the irrigated and non-irrigated RMA yields were different, one can still get a feel for the likely payment. For example, if you know a county’s wheat acres are predominately non-irrigated, then you can check to see if the RMA non-irrigated yield is below the trigger yield. If it is then like that county will receive an ARC payment.
Estimated ARC-CO payments for 2016/17 are derived from KSU estimated Marketing Year Average (MYA) Prices found HERE and NASS county yields, if available, otherwise RMA reported county yields. Values will be updated each month as more county yields and prices are released. The 2016/17 payment will be paid in the fall on 85% of the base acres only. No adjustments were made for any sequestration cuts or for crops planted on non-base acres.
Click "Full Screen" in the lower right to see a larger version of the map. Use the dropdown menu on the left side of the map to select your State Name, Crop, and Yield Type. Yield type may be Irrigated, Non-Irrigated, or ALL. Click on the + key in the upper left side of the map to increase map size or click on the arrow located on the control menu and the adjoining menu pops up.
Hover your cursor over the county of interest to see more detail. The "Yield to Trigger Payment" gives the uppermost county yield to receive any ARC-CO payment, while the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment" gives the uppermost county yield to receive the maximum ARC-CO payment. If the NASS yield is below the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment", then you will receive the maximum payment based on current MYA price projections that will change very little. If your NASS/RMA yield is nearly the same as the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment", then your payment is at risk. However, if your NASS/RMA yield is 20% below the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment" then it is nearly 100% certain that you will receive the maximum ARC payment. For example if the NASS/RMA yield is 40 bushels and the "Yield to Trigger Max Payment" is 50 bushels, then you are so deep in to the money that you can take the “payment to the bank”!
Disclaimer: No warranty is given or implied by the authors or Kansas State University. The Farm Service Agency will determine all final and official numbers that determine ARC-CO payments. Questions may be directed to Robin Reid, 785.532.0964 or firstname.lastname@example.org; Art Barnaby: email@example.com; or Rich Llewelyn:firstname.lastname@example.org.